Sons of Sam Horn > Sox Second Half Projections

Hairps

Jul 18 2008, 08:54 AM

THT's Sal Baxamusa recently made available a tool from which you can generate updated Marcel projections.

I decided to go through and crunch the Red Sox so that we have at least one projected statistical baseline from which we can begin to gauge second half player expectations.

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

BATTERS:

CODE

Varitek:

.218    .300    .354
.243    .333    .403
.230    .315    .377

Youkilis:

.314    .387    .552
.285    .378    .459
.301    .380    .512

Pedroia:

.314    .361    .458
.303    .363    .442
.310    .357    .451

Lowell:

.297    .366    .507
.280    .342    .450
.289    .352    .480

SS

?????????

Manny:

.293    .389    .518
.285    .384    .514
.290    .387    .516

Drew:

.302    .417    .572
.275    .381    .472
.289    .398    .526

Papi:

.252    .357    .486
.289    .397    .564
.272    .378    .529

Ellsbury

.269    .343    .375
.285    .354    .415
.276    .345    .392

Hairps

Jul 18 2008, 08:57 AM

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

STARTING PITCHERS:

CODE

Lester:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
3.38    125    122     82    44     1.33
3.96    87      83     62    33     1.33
3.62    212    205    144    77     1.33

Wakefield:

ERA    IP    HITS    K     BB    WHIP
3.61  122.3     97     84     47   1.18
4.68  85        81     53     31   1.32
4.05    207    178    137    78    1.23

Beckett:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
3.94    112    105    107    24    1.15
3.55    78      73     68    21    1.20
3.78    190    178    175    45    1.17

Matsuzaka:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
2.65    88.3    65  77     57     1.38
3.99    61      56  55     28     1.37
3.20    150    121 132     85     1.38

Buchholz:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
5.71    47.3  54   49      25    1.67
3.60    33    34    30    14    1.47
4.84    80    88    79    39    1.59

Hairps

Jul 18 2008, 08:58 AM

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

RELIEF PITCHERS:

CODE

Papelbon:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
2.43    40.7    32    51    7    0.96
2.98    28    22    28    8    1.07
2.66    69    54    79    15    1.01

Delcarmen:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
4.53    39.7    36    39    15    1.29
3.64    28    26    23    10    1.32
4.17    67    62    62    25    1.30

Lopez:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
2.19    37    35    21    16    1.38
4.25    26    25    17    10    1.36
3.03    63    60    38    26    1.37

Okajima:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
2.82    38.3    38    37    16    1.41
3.81    27    26    23    10    1.35
3.23    65    64    60    26    1.39

Aardsma:

ERA    IP    HITS    K    BB    WHIP
2.77    39    28    41    25    1.36
3.92    27    25    24    12    1.38
3.24    66    53    65    37    1.37

Clears Cleaver

Jul 18 2008, 09:31 AM

If these numbers are proven to be true, then it is paramount that the new SS be an upgrade over Lugo and for Papi to come back and be Papi. There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup. The pitching numbers look about what you'd expect, but again net out at a decline, I think

SaveBooFerriss

Jul 18 2008, 10:28 AM

QUOTE(Clears Cleaver @ Jul 18 2008, 02:31 PM) [snapback]1701333[/snapback]

There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup.

??????? There is significant decline for three players, Drew, Youk, & Lowell. There is no statisitically significant decline for Pedroia or Manny. Tek and Ellsbury are predicted for slight improvement.

Ortiz is certainly a key though and is expected to improve.

SS is a big question mark.

The Flying Dutchman

Jul 18 2008, 10:31 AM

QUOTE(Clears Cleaver @ Jul 18 2008, 10:31 AM) [snapback]1701333[/snapback]

If these numbers are proven to be true, then it is paramount that the new SS be an upgrade over Lugo and for Papi to come back and be Papi. There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup. The pitching numbers look about what you'd expect, but again net out at a decline, I think

While it looks like there is regression for a lot of guys, it still looks like a prety solid team. A lot hinges on Drew's performance going forward (they expect a big regression) and Varitek's, (for whom they predict a pretty substancial bounceback)

Buchholz and Beckett are expected to emerge, with Wake and Daisuke expected to fall some. Nothing new here, we just need our stars to pick it up, as some of the role players carried the team in the first half. I'm not alarmed.