Vegas has released their Over/Under win totals for this season. I am sure many of the gaming-inclined here have already had a look, but here they are via sportsinteraction:

Az 78.5
Atl 82.5
Blt 70.5
Bos 91.5
ChC 82.5
CWS 89.5
Cin 77.5
Cle 86.5
Col 74.5
Det 88.5
Fla 78.5
Hou 78.5
KC 66.5
LAA 90.5
LAD 88.5
Mil 81.5
Min 83.5
NYM 89.5
NYY 97.5
Oak 84.5
Phi 88.5
Pit 70.5
SD 83.5
SF 80.5
Sea 79.5
StL 84.5
TB 67.5
Tex 80.5
Tor 86.5
Was 68.5

Usually there are a few sure bets, but I feel they've set pretty reasonable lines this year. Off a cursory look, I like the over on Arizona, the under on Colorado, the under for the Angels and both NY teams, and the over for the Padres. Thoughts?

I like the following overs:
- Baltimore. The young starters (Bedard, Loewen, et al) are going to exceed most peoples' expectations, Markakis is a budding star, and they still have Miggy.
- Tampa Bay. Too much excellent young talent to win fewer than 70 games.
- Oakland. They're not significantly worse than last year and haven't won fewer than 87 games since 1998.

Hmm. I like the over on Arizona, the under on the White Sox, the under on the Nationals and the under on the mfy's. 97.5 wins is a lot!

Looking at that last one, the mfy's won 97 last year.

1) That was with the help of the Sox imploding the last 2 months and no improvement by TB. I think the Sox and TB will both be better this year. That hurts the mfy's at least a few games.
2)Jeter had a near career year last year, probably about the equal of his 1999 season and clearly better than the ones he had from 1996 to 1998 and from 2000 to 2005. A mild regression is probably to be expected.
3) Two of their pillars get a little closer to age related decline. Specifically, I mean Posada and Rivera. Posada had a very good year after mild decline from 2003 to 2004 to 2005 and he's now 35 with 1288 regular season games on the odometer. At least *some* decline is likely.
4) As ARod Turns, the NY soap opera looks like it will continue going all year
5) Damon bulked up this past offseason. It won't show up in the box scores but look for him to cover a little less ground and Matsui is a fairly poor outfielder, definitely worse than Melky Cabrera.

There are a whole lot of probably offsetting little factors. They get Abreu for a whole year but I sort of expect him to fall off and leave them with about the same right field production as they had last year. Mussina's back but he sort of caught people by surprise with more junk in the first half last season then got hurt some and hitters seemed to catch up. Wang could easily slip a bit. I don't expect him to suck. But similar sinkerballers like Lowe and Webb have often followed excellent seasons with so-so ones. Johnson was fairly mediocre but gave them 205 innings. What will Igawa give them?

I guess, the bottom line is that I don't think they'll collapse but 97.5 wins means they have to more games than they did last year. That seems less likely than some degree of decline.

I cannot see the Yanks hitting the 97.5 win total this year with the way their starting pitching is setup right now.

You're spot on on all of these. With the clusterfuck that is the AL Central, I wouldn't be surprised if the White Sox finish under .500.

The 66.5 on the Royals seems reasonable, and doable, and that combined with improvement by the Indians will set the ChiSox back a bit, I think.

Over on Zona - this is an over .500 team
Under on Marlins - bounce from last year.