I remember reading a quote from Duquette when he took over indicating the most important thing he had to acquire was a really good knowledge of his own farm system - which was kind of a direct shot at Gorman.Plympton91 said:
Your Red Sox Blind Spot
- Thread starter The Talented Allen Ripley
- Start date
I went to the ballgame the day after the trade. There were a couple of guys sitting near me who knew all about Bagwell, and were shocked and very upset that the Red Sox had traded him at all, much less for a month of a relief pitcher. My point is only that it is revisionist history to say some (knowledgeable) fans didn't see it as a bad trade at the time.leithbones said:
As a kid, it was Aaron Sele. I must have read some team publication his rookie year that pumped his tires good and I just assumed he was going to be the next Sox ace. The first example of prospect humping in my life.
More recently, it's been Buchholz. Despite his inconsistencies and injuries, his performance in the minors, coupled with his breakout 2010 season and outstanding start to the 2013 campaign have made me nearly impervious to growing tired of him. This year is it for me (maybe).
More recently, it's been Buchholz. Despite his inconsistencies and injuries, his performance in the minors, coupled with his breakout 2010 season and outstanding start to the 2013 campaign have made me nearly impervious to growing tired of him. This year is it for me (maybe).
Philip Jeff Frye said:
Because that's an entirely different subject, and a more boring one at that. Everybody's misjudged prospects. It's impossible not to when the hit rate is something lower than 10%. Basically any such thread might as well be called List Sox Prospects Throughout the Years. Who needs that?
As previously stated, this thread is about players who were clearly one thing, but you still think they were something else -- that something else being better-- even if you can begrudgingly admit from an objective stance that they weren't. Still being the operative word here, hence the phrase "blind spot."
"Boy, was I wrong about Prospect X," does not fit the bill, yet it's what most of the posts in this thread are saying.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I used to read the Red Sox minor league stats every Sunday in the Providence Journal sometime around 1989/1990 and watching some kid named Phil Plantier put up monster numbers in A-ball (Lynchburg). By the end of the year, I was wondering why they wouldn't just promote him to AA.
Towards the end of the year, Plantier was referenced in a column in the Projo by Bill Reynolds or somebody - just a little blurb where Lou Gorman basically admitted that he wasn't familiar with Plantier and he'd have to start paying attention to Plantier's performance more. I wish I could find the article.
Of course, he spent the next 1.5 years at Pawtucket amassing almost 50 home runs before his call up to Boston.
The Allented Mr Ripley said:
I understand what you're saying. I think Trot Nixon is still a blind spot for me. He had a pretty good career IMO. I also definitely got it wrong by throwing out Creighton Gubanich. Frank Castillo is a better option, at least for me. I thought he would've been a great addition early on in 2004, based on his 2001 season, ignoring everything else.
The Allented Mr Ripley said:
I understand your point, but a "blind spot" can be a case of a refusal to accept that you over-estimated a prospect even after 2-3 years of poor MLB performance. In my case, Reid Nichols was still the Red Sox lead-off hitter of the future, even after 3 full years of sucking. Most of us realize we over-rated Jackie Bradley Jr the prospect, but a few still might refuse to accept the evidence of 2013-14 and see him as a valuable piece of the puzzle going forward.
brs3 said:
Yeah, this is why Daisuke fits the bill for me. Part of me still expects him to put it all together and have a dominant season, despite all of the evidence telling me it was never going to happen, and didn't really happen even in the season that it did. His 2008 was a mirage, but man, it was just enough for me to cling to irrationally for all of time once it happened. I was hugely up on him when the Red Sox signed him. His stuff was just so nasty. After 2007 I rationalized it away as adjusting to the league. 2008 cemented my belief that the Red Sox had found their next ace, that he had some supernatural ability to induce shitty contact... that they were going to have the best 1-2 punch in the majors with him and Beckett. It didn't matter that in 2009 he sucked and got hurt, or that in 2010 he was a little worse than league average. He was going to turn it around any day! As is custom among long time Red Sox fans... there's always next year.
Edit: I know I posted about his H/9 being unsustainable back when it was happening, but in my heart I was talking myself into believing it could continue. I think my posting at that time was my way of tempering my expectations to counter my irrational love for a guy with a middling fastball, serious command issues and an unwillingness to attack hitters in the strike zone.
WenZink said:
Except, it's not his "point" it's his thread. He started the thread with a specific discussion in mind. He's clarifying his intent. Telling him that his own intentions for the thread are up for debate is pretty arrogant, IMO. Sure, that's what happened to the thread, but Rip doesn't have to be happy about it. At one point he even threw his hands up and acknowledged that threads have a life of their own and that this one had gotten away from what he had intended. He's well within his rights to lament that it got sidetracked into a far less interesting topic.
I'm not sure this is the best place to go looking for the discussion Rip seems to want to have. He's essentially asking which player we ball-washed the way Yankee fans ball-washed Jeter's defense despite his severely negative advanced defensive stats by referencing his "calm eyes" and "jump-throws," when the whole point of the main board is to ridicule such hokes-pocus thinking.Snodgrass'Muff said:
For me, the blind spot would have to be somebody who I think never got the chance to excel, which is almost by definition a failed prospect. In addition to Reid Nichols, I'd put Izzy Alcantara in my list. I remain convinced, despite no team ever giving him such a chance, that if old one-M had just put the guy at DH and let him hit he'd have been a Geronimo Berroa type contributor to those Red Sox teams.
Rick Miller is one guy who I always thought was better than he was. In fact, I remember when "how do you juggle the outfield so that Dewey, Rice, Lynn and Rick Miller all get playing time?" was an actual question.
And this isn't just a prospect thing, Miller played something like 1500 games for the Sox (with a stint in California in the middle).
And in looking him up, I ran across this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/10000-days-since-hecklers-and-rick-millers-family/
And this isn't just a prospect thing, Miller played something like 1500 games for the Sox (with a stint in California in the middle).
And in looking him up, I ran across this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/10000-days-since-hecklers-and-rick-millers-family/
Plus, Gorman never even bothered to pick up the phone and ask Butch Hobson, Bagwell's coach at New Britain, what he thought of Bagwell. Hobson was already convinced that Bagwell was going to be a star and he cried when he found out that the Sox had traded Bagwell. Hobson would have told Gorman that all the line-drive hitting Bagwell had to do was slightly adjust his stroke to more of an uppercut so that the line drives would turn into home runs and they were already working on that to good results. And that's exactly what Bagwell did.snowmanny said:
I don't know if he fits into this thread because of his monster 1986 playoff run*, but those two weeks in October 86 really colored my view of Dave Henderson and his contributions to the Red Sox. I thought that he was Reggie Jackson times Ted Williams with a splash of Yaz. I was also 12.
* Dave Henderson's dinger off Dayton Moore is the reason why I'm a Red Sox fan. That moment is when I really began to love baseball. My wife and I named our first dog Dave, who died two weeks after we got him due to distemper.
For his Sox career he had a slash of 226/295/396 with nine regular-season homers. And I remember feeling that Boston got completely ripped off when we got Randy Kutcher (RANDY EFFING KUTCHER?) for Henderson at the 87 trade deadline.
Dave Henderson still can do no wrong in my view.
* Dave Henderson's dinger off Dayton Moore is the reason why I'm a Red Sox fan. That moment is when I really began to love baseball. My wife and I named our first dog Dave, who died two weeks after we got him due to distemper.
For his Sox career he had a slash of 226/295/396 with nine regular-season homers. And I remember feeling that Boston got completely ripped off when we got Randy Kutcher (RANDY EFFING KUTCHER?) for Henderson at the 87 trade deadline.
Dave Henderson still can do no wrong in my view.
snowmanny said:
I went to that game as well and clearly remember Gorman getting unanimously hammered by the callers into the post-game radio show (can't remember who the host was back then). I'm sure most of these folks didn't know Bagwell any more than Gorman, but they intuitively knew that 1 month of a middle reliever had very little value. Meanwhile, Bagwell had been on a tear that year in the minors. Fourteen-year-old me hated it as well.
I'd add Jeremy Giami too although it was very brief due to David Ortiz. Jeremy was supposed to be what Ortiz is, giving us our own Giambi to counter the Yanks. His last 2 years prior to joining the Sox he put up OPS+ of 124 (443PA) and 147 (398) and he was only 27.
This is probably a topic for another thread, but if you've been a sports fan for a long time, you literally have too many names swimming around in your head. It's like a name soup that's always overflowing the bowl. I could probably name at least 10 Moore (ha ha pun) guys in about 5 minutes.*
* Even worse is when someone you work with has a sports related name. There's an editor in DC that we work with named Clyde Arrington. I've probably called him Kyle Arrington 20 times. Of course, not to be confused with LaVar Arrington. It's just an endless mess. I hate names.
* Even worse is when someone you work with has a sports related name. There's an editor in DC that we work with named Clyde Arrington. I've probably called him Kyle Arrington 20 times. Of course, not to be confused with LaVar Arrington. It's just an endless mess. I hate names.
ifmanis5 said:
There's a reliever around today that has a name similar to the guy who crawled through the ceiling to get Albert Belle's corked bat. I don't remember what the hell their names are, but I get them confused and they're 20 years apart.
I'm old.
When I look at Spike Owen's stats I can't reconcile them with the fact I thought he was a really good SS. I mean he could not hit at all.
Inexplicably I could never fault Embree or Bellhorn when they fell off the map, but Timlin pissed me off by the time he left.
Inexplicably I could never fault Embree or Bellhorn when they fell off the map, but Timlin pissed me off by the time he left.
Fred Lynn: I was convinced that if Lynn had played his whole career in Boston he would have been considered a modern day DiMaggio and a 1st ballot HOF. That comes from my adolescent view point and the perennial All-Star nods he got even after leaving Boston. The reality is that he had 2 outstanding seasons, 3 good seasons and 1 poor season with Boston. The '75 and '79 seasons are how many view him with slash lines of .331/.401/.566 and .333/.423/.637 and led the lead in OPS both years. He really should have won the MVP in 79 over Baylor. The other years were not nearly at that level with '77 being his worst with a WAR of only 1.4. The other years he ranged from 4.4 - 4.8. He actually only had positive dWar numbers in 3 of 6 seasons. His 1st year with CA was disastrous, playing in only 76 games and posting a WAR of .1. He rebounded to 4.7 with and OPS of .891 the next year, but never played more than 142 games again.
The reality is he probably would have had one or 2 more good seasons in Boston, but would statistically I don't think it would have turned out much different if he stayed in Boston.
The reality is he probably would have had one or 2 more good seasons in Boston, but would statistically I don't think it would have turned out much different if he stayed in Boston.
Since this is my blind spot, that's my personal viewpoint as well. The optimistic view is they could have moved him to left by '83 and saved him some wear and tear. He could have remained a 4.5 to 5.0 WAR for most of the '80's. Given the time period, I'm not sure his counting stats would have accumulated enough in 130 games a year to get attention on the HOF ballot. Probably would have followed the same path as someone like Dale Murphy.The Allented Mr Ripley said:
In 86 I saw him playing for the O's in Toronto and it was shocking how much more ground Moseby covered. He made one diving catch and it was on the highlights that night, but I swear Moesby would have jogged in and caught it chest high. I also saw him near the end in Detroit when it was clear he would purposely turn routine balls into diving catches. I think he was better player than you give him credit for after leaving Boston. he just wasn't a star. I mean his OPS+ was over 120 in Clai and Baltimore. Had he kept up above avg CF D that would be a heck of a player.
Willy Mo Pena, Gabe Kapler, Izzy Alcantara, Paxton Crawford, Lou Merloni, BH Kim, Roger Moret, and another 1/2 dozen I just liked more than I probably should have for various reasons. If I had to name just one it would be WMP. I still think he could have been something if he had been allowed to develop normally and given regular playing time, so I guess I still have that blind spot
What about "reverse blind spots?" For instance, I tend to think of Kevin Millar as someone who could occasionally get a hold of one but was otherwise pretty useless. But in '03 and '04, at least, he was better than I give him credit for.
Manny Delcarmen. After his 2007 and 2008 seasons, I thought he was going to be the next big thing, and ultimately would set up a shut down late inning team with Bard and Papelbon.
Made his debut in 2005. Feels ages ago. Amazing to think he's still only 32. He could still come back to have a good career, right?
Made his debut in 2005. Feels ages ago. Amazing to think he's still only 32. He could still come back to have a good career, right?
I loved Julian Tavarez. He was by all measures a bad pitcher, but he was very entertaining and you could tell he loved to be out there. He was part of the team in 2007 and he did his job, ate innings, and held his spot in the rotation down until Lester was ready to go and provided some zany entertaining antics in the meantime. He wasn't good, but man he was fun to watch.
I also liked Kason Gabbard and thought that he was quite underrated although that might just be because he debuted on my birthday. I was sad when he got hurt and fell apart after he was traded. That one year where he managed to improve his changeup and add the strikeout to his arsenal (he had mostly been a contact pitcher in the minors IIRC) and came this close to breaking out -- that was nice. Lucky for him and for us it was 2007 and he really came up big in expanding the pitching depth in the wake of Lester's cancer. Unfortunately after 2007 he ran into some nasty elbow injuries and was never really effective again. Sometimes it just goes like that.
Gabbard's shutout against KC was the #3 pitching performance by any Red Sox pitcher all year (amazingly, even though it was 2007, none of those three performances were by Josh Beckett -- they were the Buchholz no no, the Schilling near no no, and Gabbard's CGSO)
I also liked Kason Gabbard and thought that he was quite underrated although that might just be because he debuted on my birthday. I was sad when he got hurt and fell apart after he was traded. That one year where he managed to improve his changeup and add the strikeout to his arsenal (he had mostly been a contact pitcher in the minors IIRC) and came this close to breaking out -- that was nice. Lucky for him and for us it was 2007 and he really came up big in expanding the pitching depth in the wake of Lester's cancer. Unfortunately after 2007 he ran into some nasty elbow injuries and was never really effective again. Sometimes it just goes like that.
Gabbard's shutout against KC was the #3 pitching performance by any Red Sox pitcher all year (amazingly, even though it was 2007, none of those three performances were by Josh Beckett -- they were the Buchholz no no, the Schilling near no no, and Gabbard's CGSO)
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Darnell McDonald, his first two games with the Sox in 2010 he went 3 for 5 with two home runs and two walks.
Best Red Sox ever.
Best Red Sox ever.
Gedman for me, too. I spent a good part of the late 80s/early 90s editing his stats in Hardball 2 and other games to be better, because the creators of those games had clearly underrated him.
I have two. Kevin Millar and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Kevin Millar - I just loved his grit and his sense of humor (as corny as it can be). He was an average to below average player but I think he was a big part of the glue that held that clubhouse together and eventually led to the 2004 World Series win. I went to spring training in Florida for 10 days in 2005. I was at 8 games in 10 days and had a blast. I started on the east coast of Florida and made my way over to the west coast. At one of the two games I saw in Ft Myers, I went early to take in the atmosphere before the game. Kids were gathering at the dugout for autographs as the players came out to warm up and take batting practice. Millar noticed one kid (maybe 10 years old) who had his jersey on. He approached the kid, spoke with him, and then invited him onto the field for a throw. That kid will never forget that and neither have I. I will always be a Kevin Millar fan boy for that.
Jackie Bradley Jr. - I spent 38 of my 48 years in South Carolina before I moved to Boston in November of last year, and went to the University of South Carolina. I had the pleasure of seeing this kid produce at the college level, and he was an integral part of back to back College World Series titles for the Gamecocks in 2010 and 2011. He was also the Most Outstanding Player of the 2010 College World Series. I have been a Red Sox fan since the early 80's but when they drafted JBJ, I was incredibly fired up about the possibility of him becoming the Red Sox center fielder, and now that day is here. I will see my first game at Fenway on May 1st against the evil empire and I will be in the center field bleachers wearing a Gamecock shirt and a Red Sox hat. There is a legitimate argument that he is already one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. If his bat will follow, he has the potential to be an All Star at the major league level. For all of those reasons, JBJ will always be in my blind spot, regardless of how his career progresses from here.
Kevin Millar - I just loved his grit and his sense of humor (as corny as it can be). He was an average to below average player but I think he was a big part of the glue that held that clubhouse together and eventually led to the 2004 World Series win. I went to spring training in Florida for 10 days in 2005. I was at 8 games in 10 days and had a blast. I started on the east coast of Florida and made my way over to the west coast. At one of the two games I saw in Ft Myers, I went early to take in the atmosphere before the game. Kids were gathering at the dugout for autographs as the players came out to warm up and take batting practice. Millar noticed one kid (maybe 10 years old) who had his jersey on. He approached the kid, spoke with him, and then invited him onto the field for a throw. That kid will never forget that and neither have I. I will always be a Kevin Millar fan boy for that.
Jackie Bradley Jr. - I spent 38 of my 48 years in South Carolina before I moved to Boston in November of last year, and went to the University of South Carolina. I had the pleasure of seeing this kid produce at the college level, and he was an integral part of back to back College World Series titles for the Gamecocks in 2010 and 2011. He was also the Most Outstanding Player of the 2010 College World Series. I have been a Red Sox fan since the early 80's but when they drafted JBJ, I was incredibly fired up about the possibility of him becoming the Red Sox center fielder, and now that day is here. I will see my first game at Fenway on May 1st against the evil empire and I will be in the center field bleachers wearing a Gamecock shirt and a Red Sox hat. There is a legitimate argument that he is already one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. If his bat will follow, he has the potential to be an All Star at the major league level. For all of those reasons, JBJ will always be in my blind spot, regardless of how his career progresses from here.
Bellhorn in 2005 for me. I've been wrong about plenty in my projections over the years but I was driving the "Bellhorn over Pokey" bus as soon as they signed him when I looked at his walk % and 2002 season with the Cubs. His superb regular season performance and subsequent playoff heroics in lieu of the ignorant WEEI talk radio calls for Francona to bench him throughout the ALDS and early part of the ALCS were some of most satisfying moments of vindication I've experienced as a sports fan. I vividly remember defending him all season, parroting some of the contextual stats from the main board showing his contact % was much higher when batting with baserunners on 3rd base and less than 2 outs when strikeouts would be more detrimental and his underated ability to turn the double play. The Sabermetric darling effect, the comedic fact he looked and carried himself like a serial killer, plus the Boston roots and I had a full on man crush.
When the slow start in 2005 morphed into a slow half season I kept waiting for him to turn around but to no avail. I actively loathed Graffanino for outplaying him down the stretch and taking his job, and even irrationally took small comfort in the fact it was him who submarined the 2005 ALDS with his big error in game 2. Subconsciously rooting against players on your hometown team while they are engaged in a playoff series to defend the credentials of a guy sporting a 79 OPS+. Yeah, I would call that a blind spot.
Don't even get me started on Wilton Veras and how he is going to be the next Wade Boggs because he wore cool striped stirrups.
When the slow start in 2005 morphed into a slow half season I kept waiting for him to turn around but to no avail. I actively loathed Graffanino for outplaying him down the stretch and taking his job, and even irrationally took small comfort in the fact it was him who submarined the 2005 ALDS with his big error in game 2. Subconsciously rooting against players on your hometown team while they are engaged in a playoff series to defend the credentials of a guy sporting a 79 OPS+. Yeah, I would call that a blind spot.
Don't even get me started on Wilton Veras and how he is going to be the next Wade Boggs because he wore cool striped stirrups.
Just reread this thread. As a kid, I'd get hung up on players I saw do something good even if it was an exception. For that reason, I really liked Reid Nichols, Rick Miller and Dave Stapleton.
More recently, Phil Plantier is the one. I was horrified when they traded him for my namesake, and that's why he's my namesake.
More recently, Phil Plantier is the one. I was horrified when they traded him for my namesake, and that's why he's my namesake.
Bellhorn is my big one too, and this paragraph was like Bellhorn porn for me, so well done. I own one piece of baseball "memorabilia," which is a World Series ball signed by Mark Bellhorn. Cost me forty whole dollars and I treasure it.
I was at this game in May of 2005, and not only did Bellhorn have a rough game (0-4, 2Ks), but Foulke blew the save in ugly fashion before Varitek hit a walk-off sneak around Pesky's Pole (which featured future hero Bobby Kielty going all out to into the crowd to no avail). It was real bad before it got good, and this block in front of me of what felt like fifteen rows but was probably more like three--full of drunk meatheads--were giving Foulke and Bellhorn the business. Raining down abuse. In MAY. Of TWO THOUSAND-FIVE. I wanted to go on a killing spree.
So yeah, Foulke in 2005 was a huge one for me. He was always about to turn a corner and put two good appearances together. Oof, that Texas game.
Besides my namesake, I thought that John Wasdin was going to put it all together and become a dominant pitcher. Looking back at his stats, I can't imagine why I thought that, but I was adamant that it was just about to happen.
I own an Adam Stern t-shirt.
I have no idea how that happened. I just looked back on his stats assuming that he has a really hot start, or a great week, something that would turn me into an Adam Stern fan. But... no, there's nothing. He was a sub-.150 hitter with no power. He didn't even steal many bases, so it's not like he was a pinch running star a la Dave Roberts. Was it the World Baseball Classic that turned me into a fan? No idea. Someone has to help me out.
This is less of a player blind spot than a managerial decision blind spot, but I LOVED that time Francona pinch ran with Buchholz. It turned out to be an unthinkable disaster, but I always really, really wanted him to try it again.
I have no idea how that happened. I just looked back on his stats assuming that he has a really hot start, or a great week, something that would turn me into an Adam Stern fan. But... no, there's nothing. He was a sub-.150 hitter with no power. He didn't even steal many bases, so it's not like he was a pinch running star a la Dave Roberts. Was it the World Baseball Classic that turned me into a fan? No idea. Someone has to help me out.
This is less of a player blind spot than a managerial decision blind spot, but I LOVED that time Francona pinch ran with Buchholz. It turned out to be an unthinkable disaster, but I always really, really wanted him to try it again.
Today, it's Blake Swihart. I think the kid has so much potential to be that All-Star catcher who rakes from both sides of the plate.
Old convo,but I am suprised by how good Lynn actually looks in terms of career stats. 50 bWAR career--better than Jim Rice, 1 less than Papi. I know, not apples to oranges given the DH thing, but still, I think of him as having completely fallen off the map in his early 30s, but he managed to play until 38 and mostly be decent. Of course, he got almost a quarter of his value in a single season... I mean, if Gedman doesn't count because in his prime he was actually good, Lynn shouldn't either. But I think both do count.
My list is soooo long. Jeremy Giambi, Paxton Crawford, Awesome Fossum, Bellhorn, Manny Delcarmen, Sam Horn, BH Kim (I still want to argue that "he was actually good"), Dice-K, Izzy A., Hee Seop Choi, Daubach, Middlebrooks... on and on. In my defense, I knew Benzinger sucked, but I loved him anyway!
My list is soooo long. Jeremy Giambi, Paxton Crawford, Awesome Fossum, Bellhorn, Manny Delcarmen, Sam Horn, BH Kim (I still want to argue that "he was actually good"), Dice-K, Izzy A., Hee Seop Choi, Daubach, Middlebrooks... on and on. In my defense, I knew Benzinger sucked, but I loved him anyway!