Your 2014 NFL Gambling Thread

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
14,029
Boulder, CO
Never too early?
 
Arizona Cardinals o7.5 (-150), u7.5 (+120)
Atlanta Falcons, o8.5 (even), u8.5 (-130)
Baltimore Ravens, o8.5 (-115), u8.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills, o6.5 (-170), u6.5 (+140)
Carolina Panthers, o8 (even), u8 (-130)
Chicago Bears, o8.5 (-170), u8.5 (+140)
Cincinnati Bengals, o9 (-120), u9 (-110)
Cleveland Browns, o6.5 (-150), u6.5 (+120)
Dallas Cowboys, o7.5 (+130), u7.5 (-160)
Denver Broncos, o11.5 (+105), u11.5 (-135)
Detroit Lions, o8.5 (-115), u8.5 (-115)
Green Bay Packers, o10.5 (-115), u10.5 (-115)
Houston Texans, o7.5 (-145), u7.5 (+115)
Indianapolis Colts, o9.5 (-130), u9.5 (even)
Jacksonville Jaguars, o4.5 (-185), u4.5 (+150)
Kansas City Chiefs, o8.5 (+120), u8.5 (-150)
Miami Dolphins, o7.5 (even), u7.5 (-130)
Minnesota Vikings, o6 (-130), u6 (even)
New England Patriots, o10.5 (-210), u10.5 (+170)
New Orleans Saints, o9.5 (-210), u9.5 (+170)
New York Giants, o8 (-130), u8 (even)
New York Jets, o7 (-160), u7 (+130)
Oakland Raiders, o4.5 (-225), u4.5 (+180)
Philadelphia Eagles, o9 (-130), u9 (even)
Pittsburgh Steelers, o8.5 (-165), u8.5 (+135)
San Diego Chargers, o8.5 (-110), u8.5 (-120)
San Francisco 49ers, o10.5 (-120), u10.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks, o11 (-120), u11 (-110)
St Louis Rams, o7.5 (-165), u7.5 (+135)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, o7 (-155), u7 (+125)
Tennessee Titans, o7 (-115), u7 (-115)
Washington Redskins, o7.5 (-135), u7.5 (+105)
 
Off the top of my head, I like the Jets under, the Ravens under (although I got it at even), the Pats over (homer! But at least I got it at -185), the Texans under 7.5 (got it at +125), and the Panthers over 8.5.
 
My other observation is that that's a lot of wins for the NFC West. I don't have a thesis there... maybe to go the under on the 9ers and/or Cardinals?
 
Edit: you could probably talk me into the Cowboys under, the Browns and Broncos over, the Colts under, and Bills over.
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,831
Henderson, NV
The NFC West won 13, 12, 10 and 7 games last year so I think those numbers are reasonable.  Seahawks have a tough schedule this year, SF has some holes, St. Louis should improve with Bradford back and their draft, and Arizona finally got some pieces on their O-line.  It's a tough call for any of them.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
I have a model I've been kicking around with that incorporates a bunch of box score data, football outsiders data, pro football focus data, next year's schedule, free agent moves (graded by PFF), draft results (based on draft spot only) into a regression with a few interaction factors to try and predict NFL O/U results. I'm not betting it much yet, because I don't have much of a sample yet (because of a lack of PFF historic data), so I figured I'd post the results. The best bets:
 
Green Bay Packers -4.11
Atlanta Falcons 3.05
Cincinnati Bengals -2.85
Philadelphia Eagles -2.62
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.44
Detroit Lions -2.31
Houston Texans 2.23
San Francisco 49ers -2.15
 
The numbers are the predicted W-L differential from the O/U, bet over the positive numbers, under on the negative. 
 
Further adjustments to this model will happen, as it's currently missing some big things still (it doesn't know Aaron Rodgers was out much last year for instance).