Young Starting Pitching

PrometheusWakefield · Jun 4, 2015

Power is scarce and hitters who show power are getting rushed to the major leagues. For example Rangers just called up Joey Gallo without a day in AAA.

bellowthecat · Jun 4, 2015

I think it's mostly the effects of ballpark dimensions and atmosphere. The International League has a fairly low run scoring environment, but it also lacks many cities in truly warm climates. The Pacific Coast League, another AAA league, has a much higher run scoring environment (and power), but has teams scattered throughout the southern US in warmer climates and some at elevation.

HomeRunBaker · Jun 4, 2015

Rudy Pemberton said:
One thing to keep in mind is that the IL is certainly a pitchers league. The league ERA is 3.93, with 3.3 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, and just 0.5 HR/9 as the league averages.

This is interesting since our pitchers coming up from Pawtucket seem to be transitioning wonderfully while the hitters are as a whole are struggling and every single one has stuggled immediately following callup. If the IL were a true "pitchers league" wouldn't the transition to the big be the exact opposite?

Are we at a time in the game where pitchers don't need the traditional AAA time whereas hitters may need more?

Cesar Crespo · Jun 4, 2015

10 of Brian Johnsons 17 walks came in 7.2ip in 2 back to back starts. He has very strong peripherals too. I wouldn't be eager to trade him.

threecy · Jun 5, 2015

HomeRunBaker said:
This is interesting since our pitchers coming up from Pawtucket seem to be transitioning wonderfully

Aren't we talking about 2 total pitchers with about 14 IP each?

reggiecleveland · Jun 5, 2015

threecy said:
Aren't we talking about 2 total pitchers with about 14 IP each?

Are you are new here? 14 innings, or 40 at bats of good performance by a prospect trump even multiple years of poor performance. I think a hard foul ball by Lars Anderson prompted a 'trade Ortiz' thread. If you try to speak rationally and offer caution on the young guys you will be shouted down.

The reason is Mookie 's spring, X's post season, WMb success in 2012, JBJ' s first two games (seriously there was a thread ) showed all were likely HOF guys ready to step in.

Philip Jeff Frye · Jun 5, 2015

Heck, it takes less than that to judge from recent posts suggesting Bryce Brentz and his sub-700 OPS as a possible solution for our offensive woes.

HomeRunBaker · Jun 5, 2015

threecy said:
Aren't we talking about 2 total pitchers with about 14 IP each?

Yes. Hence the term transitioning. One group is transitioning well the other hasn't only not transitioned well but flatout failed over entire seasons.

Rovin Romine · Jun 5, 2015

bosox79 said:
10 of Brian Johnsons 17 walks came in 7.2ip in 2 back to back starts. He has very strong peripherals too. I wouldn't be eager to trade him.

Yeah, I'm not sure what Johnson would be trade bait *for* at this juncture. It's not like we're one piece away from contention. Johnson does not have raw swing and miss stuff (according to Sox Prospects) but it may be worth it to put him in the bullpen and see what happens.

Detts · Jun 5, 2015

bosox79 said:
10 of Brian Johnsons 17 walks came in 7.2ip in 2 back to back starts. He has very strong peripherals too. I wouldn't be eager to trade him.

Eric Van?

Cesar Crespo · Jun 5, 2015

I'm not sure why Johnson wouldn't get a crack at the rotation before being moved to the pen. His numbers since last year are great and he does have 57k in 55.1ip this year. He's not Brandon Workman or Alex Wilson.

Cesar Crespo · Jun 5, 2015

Detts said:
Eric Van?

Sure. Throw the walks back in and it's still 17 walks in 55.1ip. Last year he had 39 in 143.2ip. He doesn't walk people and those 2 games were uncharacteristic of him. His era last year was 2.12. This year: 2.60. Maybe he's good?

threecy · Jun 5, 2015

HomeRunBaker said:
Yes. Hence the term transitioning. One group is transitioning well the other hasn't only not transitioned well but flatout failed over entire seasons.

2 = a group?

Regardless, I think it'll be interesting to see how Rodriguez does when scouting catches up with him. Such as when Clay first came up and was blowing away hitters until they realized the nasty pitches they were swinging at were balls if they left their bats on their shoulder.

With Barnes, I think there's a lot of luck involved at the moment. Yes, his ERA is at 1.98 (apart from a lights out 5 game stint in A ball, he was a 4.00 ERA pitcher in the minors), but he's also at nearly 12 H/9 and 3.3BB/9...that's bound to catch up with him at some point.

benhogan · Jun 5, 2015

I'd rather see Brian Johnson pitch for us, then include him in a deal for an expensive veteran.

At this point its not so much the 'games back in the AL East' number that matters to me, but the way they are playing and their run differential. This team is real bad and getting worse, from the last week of April to now the team has steadily declined. Its not really BABIP or RISP that concerns me - that will even out, its the fundamentals of fielding and base running that is a glaring problem.* This team is tough to stomach much less spend 3 hours a night and watch on TV.

Frankly the only thing that is exciting about the Sox is watching the 'kids' come up and play. Even if its the goofiness of Rusney, I'd rather see that then the overcompensated veterans. Plus I have zero faith in this front office in making another deal.

* this is probably an over reaction by me after Sunday's and yesterday's game

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jun 5, 2015

Detts said:
Eric Van?

While it's sort of Van-esque, Johnson also had several wild pitches in those starts. His uncharacteristic wildness made it seem like he was working on something different than in his other starts. But it's just a guess.

HomeRunBaker · Jun 5, 2015

threecy said:
2 = a group?

Regardless, I think it'll be interesting to see how Rodriguez does when scouting catches up with him. Such as when Clay first came up and was blowing away hitters until they realized the nasty pitches they were swinging at were balls if they left their bats on their shoulder.

With Barnes, I think there's a lot of luck involved at the moment. Yes, his ERA is at 1.98 (apart from a lights out 5 game stint in A ball, he was a 4.00 ERA pitcher in the minors), but he's also at nearly 12 H/9 and 3.3BB/9...that's bound to catch up with him at some point.

Wright and Rodriguez especially but Barnes would be the 3rd. Yes, 3 call ups in two months = a group. I'm including Wright since he's coming up through the system even though he isn't technically young he isn't old by any means for a knuckleballer.

Rovin Romine · Jun 5, 2015

bosox79 said:
I'm not sure why Johnson wouldn't get a crack at the rotation before being moved to the pen. His numbers since last year are great and he does have 57k in 55.1ip this year. He's not Brandon Workman or Alex Wilson.

For the 2016 rotation we lose Masterson.

Otherwise for 2016:

1 Buchholz - 13 mil per year team options FA 2016, 17 or 18.
2 Porcello - FA for the 2020 season
3 Miley - FA for the 2018 season
4 Kelly - FA 2019

In terms of young pitching, that gives you one 2016 rotation spot to fill. Or two if Kelly is moved to the pen. Or three if there's a catastrophic injury.

While you want depth, right now we have Rodriguez (5) and Wright (6) in the mix as viable #5s or much better. For 2016 we'd add (maybe) Owens (7), Johnson (8), Barnes (9), Workman (10). Plus there's always a chance the Sox sign a FA (ace or not) which'd bump everyone down a notch on the list.

Someone has to go the pen (Barnes/Workman) unless theres injury, meltdown, regression, etc.

So while I'm not advocating scrapping Johnson's career as a starter, he may (or may not) be looking at a Barnes/Workman type role. Seems like we can do a bit of the 1970s Orioles approach of putting young arms in the ML pen.

threecy · Jun 5, 2015

HomeRunBaker said:
Wright and Rodriguez especially but Barnes would be the 3rd. Yes, 3 call ups in two months = a group. I'm including Wright since he's coming up through the system even though he isn't technically young he isn't old by any means for a knuckleballer.

I don't think Wright qualifies as "young starting pitching," since he'll be 31 in August and that his first cup of coffee was in 2013.

koufax37 · Jun 5, 2015

PrometheusWakefield said:
Power is scarce and hitters who show power are getting rushed to the major leagues. For example Rangers just called up Joey Gallo without a day in AAA.

As you mention with Gallo, raw power is often left in lower level minor leagues while it figures out how to hit, and once it figures it out is asked to contribute to MLB, so having a monster offensive season in AAA seems less common than in the past.

Poor Edgar Martinez...if only you came up in 2015 your 24 to 26 year old years would have played out so differently (1159 PAs of .344/.450/.495 in AAA before he stuck in the show).

Back to the young pitching, we have a lot to be excited about, but not a clear blue chip stud among them in the GCole, deGrom, Harvey mold. Fortunately for pitching you don't have to be that to succeed in the majors, and maybe EdRo can be that guy, but there isn't anybody who gives you goose bumps in anticipation of their MLB debut.

I do think we have a ton of talented guys who can give us the very strong 600 innings we need out of spots 3 to 5, have somebody surprise us and give the 210 we want from a #2, but I think as the off season narrative suggested over and over, we still don't have a candidate for the 230 ace innings.

When you get #3 performance from the #1 spot, it means your run differential and wins pay the price unless you can get some #3 performance out of the #5 spot too or another form of over achieving. Five #2/#3s is fine and adds up to a really good rotation. Five #3/#4s is not enough and adds up to too many runs given up and too many innings on the bullpen.

Broad strokes and vague terms, but I think the core concept is that while we expect Porcello/Miley/Kelly to perform better and are excited about EdRo and Co., we still are lined up to have our rotation give up too many runs in too few innings when your goal is to make up five games in the standings in about 100 left to play.

Cesar Crespo · Jun 5, 2015

I think Brian Johnson would outrank Wright if he was on the 40, and is way further along than Owens. Maybe by the time 2016 rolls around, Owens will have moved up.

I'll admit I'm incredibly high on Brian Johnson though, more than most posters.

Savin Hillbilly · Jun 5, 2015

koufax37 said:
I do think we have a ton of talented guys who can give us the very strong 600 innings we need out of spots 3 to 5.

We tend to overestimate what are realistic expectations for the back end of the rotation, and this is a good example. Only eight teams in MLB -- Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Royals, Tigers -- got as many as 600 innings from their top three starters, never mind the 3-through-5. 500 innings from 3-5 would be fabulous, and probably too much to ask. And they're not going to be "very strong", nor need they be. They just need to be, in aggregate, average-ish.

Rovin Romine · Jun 5, 2015

bosox79 said:
I think Brian Johnson would outrank Wright if he was on the 40, and is way further along than Owens. Maybe by the time 2016 rolls around, Owens will have moved up.

I'll admit I'm incredibly high on Brian Johnson though, more than most posters.

Why? (Genuine question.) He's having a good AAA run, but his stuff was always described as average/mediocre. So I think there was always a concern his ceiling as a ML stater was low. Is he now doing something different that would make you think he'd be more successful than Wright?

ALiveH · Jun 5, 2015

I'd think Johnson is next man up in the event of injury or bad performance. Johnson seems like a pretty low-risk bet to step right in and perform adequately to well above average for a back-end starter. Johnson's peripherals & performance have been better than Owens this year. Owens has more upside, but this year it seems like he would really benefit from more seasoning & re-discovering his control.

Johnson is also exactly the type of pitcher who would be a bad fit in the bullpen. It seems obvious that his future is as a starter. He has average-good command of a 4-pitch mix which is rare and none of his offerings really have plus stuff.

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