Yoan Moncada

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There's a whole lot of stretch to calling that a log jam and your definition of "legitimate" is, to be kind, extremely generous. You list multiple guys who are fringe at best for being viable ML ball players, at least to the extent you plan around them coming to fruition or can cite them as any kind of trade ballast. And then you list more that so far away that they are lottery tickets.
 

billy ashley

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
There's a whole lot of stretch to calling that a log jam and your definition of "legitimate" is, to be kind, extremely generous. You list multiple guys who are fringe at best for being viable ML ball players, at least to the extent you plan around them coming to fruition or can cite them as any kind of trade ballast. And then you list more that so far away that they are lottery tickets.
Forgive me if I wasn't clear but who in an offer of (for example) Margot + Owens + Guerra + Cechhini would qualify as ballast? That's 3 top 100 guys and an interesting but stalled prospect. 

The point of the post is that Boston currently doesn't project to have any organizational filler types in the infield (minus 1b) from Salem through Triple A next year. The closest example to a non-prospect is Lin, who is at the very least interesting given his pedigree. Maybe you define a prospect as a guy who's likely to start in the majors, but guys like Dubon, Rijo and Marrero are absolutely worthy getting a full share of at bats.   

I don't think a single guy listed other than Lin comes close to not being a prospect. While I don't expect the majority to have major league careers, these are not the types of talents that you just throw away. 

 
 

IdiotKicker

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I think that 80-90% of the guys you mentioned never start more than a full season in the majors, if even part of one. Yes, that means that only 2-3 of them will have legitimate careers. You are drastically overrating prospects based on...I'm not sure what. But out of your list of four in your last post, you're talking about one real top-tier prospect, two guys with limited upside but a decent floor, and a guy who generously profiled as Sean Burroughs at best when he was rising through the system before becoming filler. So yes, a lot of guys on your full list are the type of guys you move if given the opportunity. Go back and look at the Sox drafts from 03-07. Look at how few actually became something meaningful, even in awesome drafts like 05. It's not to say our guys suck, but more how hard it is to translate skills effectively and consistently to the majors.
 

billy ashley

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I think I must not be communicating clearly.
 
I agree, most of the guys listed won't be major league regulars for extended periods of time. I do think several are very safe bets to have some value as bench players (Shaw and Marrero could be serviceable role players, now). Several others have some probability of becoming viable major league starting position players (Marrero again, Rijo, Cecchini, Chavis and Dubon). A few more project to be starters (you know the stars of this list Devers, Moncada, Guerra). None of these guys listed (aside from maybe Lin) represents an organizational filler type (put another way, a guy serving as a place holder). They all have some value.

Most will not reach their upsides but that fact doesn't mean an organization should relegate these prospects to the bench in the minors. There's a half dozen interesting infielders in this organization between high and and double A next year; I don't know what's so controversial about that statement. 

Anyway, we've gone way off Moncada so I'll leave it at that. If folks believe that I'm arguing that I think that Boston currently has 6-8 future major league starters at 2b, SS and 3b I've either argued my point poorly or folks have missed my point completely.  
 

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I think you are vastly overreacting to Hanley Ramirez's troubles or something similar.  Most of these guys can learn a new position in the OF in half a season or season in the minors.  So you don't need to make all of these decisions now. You make them when everyone is closer to the majors and you have a better idea of how the major league roster is shaping up.  Of course if you end up with 3 3B and 2 2B that should all be in Portland one year, you find a way to get them in instead of leaving guys in lower levels just because of the roster.  But this is all the same point.  You don't try to anticipate 5 or even 2 years into the future on things like this because there is very very little benefit.  There are enough things to worry about in player development without twisting your brain in knots trying to project every roster 2-3 years ahead of time.
 

jscola85

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 Betts didn't switch this early IIRC, so I'd imagine he will stay in the infield for a while.  Who knows, if his power continues to flash, maybe they try him at third, where there's less organizational depth.
 

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jscola85 said:
Betts didn't switch this early IIRC, so I'd imagine he will stay in the infield for a while.  Who knows, if his power continues to flash, maybe they try him at third, where there's less organizational depth.
Betts didn't play any games as an outfielder until last year in AA and he played less than 50 games total in the outfield in the minors. Granted Mookie is probably the exception, going from never playing a position professionally to being a plus defender in under a year, but it's certainly not an insurmountable challenger for someone who's young and athletic.
 

jscola85

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It's unusual for a guy to move up the ladder as quickly as Betts too, so I'd suspect even if Moncada switches at AA, it will take him longer to reach the majors than Betts.
 

absintheofmalaise

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jscola85 said:
It's unusual for a guy to move up the ladder as quickly as Betts too, so I'd suspect even if Moncada switches at AA, it will take him longer to reach the majors than Betts.
Would you please do us all a favor and provide some evidence to support your opinions when you post. Thanks.
 

jscola85

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Betts played approximately 100 games in AA and AAA before reaching the majors. That's a remarkably fast ascension up the ladder. Even Bogaerts needed 120 games, Pedroia needed 225+, Ellsbury 150+.

I'm not sure how what is said is controversial. Betts rocketed up the high minors. But hey, thanks for the personal attack.
 

absintheofmalaise

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jscola85 said:
Betts played approximately 100 games in AA and AAA before reaching the majors. That's a remarkably fast ascension up the ladder. Even Bogaerts needed 120 games, Pedroia needed 225+, Ellsbury 150+.

I'm not sure how what is said is controversial. Betts rocketed up the high minors. But hey, thanks for the personal attack.
I didn't make a personal attack on you. I asked you to provide some facts to back up your opinion. There is a big difference. 
 

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.290/.379/.450 .829 OPS for the season
.348/.435/.553 .988 OPS for the 2nd half of the season(all from the leadoff spot)
31-for-33 SB
 
Where does Yoan start off the season next year?  The logical place would be Portland to me.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
.290/.379/.450 .829 OPS for the season
.348/.435/.553 .988 OPS for the 2nd half of the season(all from the leadoff spot)
31-for-33 SB
 
Where does Yoan start off the season next year?  The logical place would be Portland to me.
 

Salem to start the season, in order to maximize his at-bats.
 
If he keeps hitting at close to this clip, he can be promoted around May 15 - June 1, after the threat of serious game cancellations due to ice/snow/rain has been reduced.  And he'll still get 3-3 1/2 months of AA plate appearances under his belt.
 

SouthernBoSox

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So, I mean, we pretty much knew he'd be an elite hitter in the low minors.  But the steals.  My god. Is it actual speed or is he just know what hes doing out there?
 

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SouthernBoSox said:
So, I mean, we pretty much knew he'd be an elite hitter in the low minors.  But the steals.  My god. Is it actual speed or is he just know what hes doing out there?
 
Soxprospects rates him as plus speed:
 
Run: Plus speed. Takes a little time to get going, but once he does can really move. Long strides, fluid runner.   
 

jscola85

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Question is - is he an instinctual basestealer, or does he just outrun battery duos in the low minors who lack good pickoffs and throwing arms?  For example, Rusney Castillo has plus speed - he ran a 4.1 home to first in his pro showcase - but has only 6 steals in 49 career games because he doesn't seem to have that natural instinct like Ellsbury or 40 SB guys.  Betts is a bit the same, as a lot of times he just outruns throws without fantastic jumps.
 

SouthernBoSox

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jscola85 said:
Question is - is he an instinctual basestealer, or does he just outrun battery duos in the low minors who lack good pickoffs and throwing arms?  For example, Rusney Castillo has plus speed - he ran a 4.1 home to first in his pro showcase - but has only 6 steals in 49 career games because he doesn't seem to have that natural instinct like Ellsbury or 40 SB guys.  Betts is a bit the same, as a lot of times he just outruns throws without fantastic jumps.
Exactly my question. Are we dealing with an elite burner here? Or just a guy playing with inferior players right now.
 

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He strikes me as a 20-25 SB/year guy, particularly as he'll likely transition into a middle-of-the-order bat.  
 
The reason he's leading off is the same reason he's stealing a ton of bases IMHO.   He's in the low minors so we want him to have lots of at-bats as well as establish himself on the basepaths.  
 
With that said he could by a 30/30 Ryan Braun type
 

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So not to completely rehash last week's argument but at this point it looks like the sox could have the following middle infielders ready for Portland, early next year:
 
  1. 2B Yoan Moncada- clearly has to play every day. Is a top 20 prospect
  2. SS Javy Guerra- top 100 prospect. Needs to play
  3. SS/2BMaurico Dubon- Not nearly the prospect as the other 2 listed but good enough to get regular playing time. Profiles as an MLB  utility man.
  4. 2B Wendell Rijo- Again, not the prospect as the top 2 but good enough to deserve regular at bats. Profiles as a bat first 2B.
  5. SS/2B Tzu-Wei Lin- Former Bonus baby playing well for the first time in his career. It wouldn't be the end of the world if he was relegated to the bench but he's much more interesting than your usual organizational filler. 
The big sore thumb here is Rijo who can't play SS adequately and will either have to be promoted to make room for Moncada in High A or left to repeat the level if Moncada is believed to be ready for AA. Rijo hasn't had the best season in Salem, but he's still very much a prospect, but he looks completely blocked all around the org, right now. 
 

smastroyin

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I just don't think this is a huge problem.
 
Moncada, Guerra, Devers get priority at whatever level at 2B, SS, 3B respectively.
 
I don't think Rijo or Lin are significant enough to kvetch about.  Regardless, the current situation would be that Rijo and Lin would be in Portland with Moncada/Guerra in Salem.  I doubt they will want to push Guerra to Portland, but if they want to push Moncada then Rijo can stay in Salem. He has more value consolidating gains at 2b than he would playing the Portland OF without his bat improving a lot.
 
Dubon isn't a guy you shift other plans with either, and he's also the guy most likely to need to play the OF in a utility role.
 

koufax32

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This is starting to get silly. Do they really plan on letting him stay in Greenville? At this point it would be a waste of 1 month+ of developing his bat.
 

Wake's knuckle

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koufax32 said:
This is starting to get silly. Do they really plan on letting him stay in Greenville? At this point it would be a waste of 1 month+ of developing his bat.
 
Yeah, his monthly splits are getting crazy... July: 316/419/945   August: 378/451/1095
 
I agree, he's probably ready for a new challenge. He's clearly used to playing again after the long layoff... and Greenville ain't tough enough.
 

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koufax32 said:
This is starting to get silly. Do they really plan on letting him stay in Greenville? At this point it would be a waste of 1 month+ of developing his bat.
The season ends in 3 weeks. While the Red Sox may move him over the next 3 weeks, there is no significant difference in the development curve. The jump to Salem isn't that huge.
 

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Moncada's last 10 games: 14 for 41 (.341) 2 HRs, 6 walks, 7 Ks, and an amazing 15 stolen bases. He's stolen two bases in 7 of his last 10 games.
 
For the season, 68 games, 257 at-bats: 292/383/459. 40 steals in 43 attempts. 7 HRs, 18 doubles, 2 triples. 31 walks, 66 Ks.
 
As mentioned above, his splits are even more fun:
in May and June before the all-star break, he played 25 games and had to shake off the rust. 200/287/289. 1 homer, 28 Ks to 8 walks. Whispers and muttering from some about how maybe this guy isn't that good. 
 
Then post all-star break: 167 at-bats, 341/432/551, 6 HRs, 22 extra-base hits, 23 walks, 38 whiffs. 36 stolen bases in 43 games.
 
By month:
July: 25 games, 95 at-bats. 316/419/526.  4 HRs, 14 walks, 23 Ks.
August: 13 games, 53 at-bats: 377/459/623. 1.082 OPS. 8 walks, 9 Ks. 
 
Fun stuff. 
 

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He's going to be top 5 in all of baseball at season end if he's not careful.  I would love to see them aggressively promote him next year if he keeps this up. Start in Salem, go to Portland for much of the year, and end the year in Pawtucket for a cup of coffee. Be ready to challenge for a MLB spot in '17.
 

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Cuzittt said:
He starts next year in Portland. Mark my words.
 
Interesting, but entirely logical.  And if Moncada stays at 2B, he leapfrogs over the (slightly) younger Wendell Rijo in the system, and Rijo gets another year at Salem.
 

Koufax

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It might make sense to start the transfer to 3B.  If Soxprospects is correct, that may be his ultimate place anyway, and it sure looks like there will be an opening there once Panda hits 400 lbs or becomes a 1B or DH.
 

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Koufax said:
It might make sense to start the transfer to 3B.  If Soxprospects is correct, that may be his ultimate place anyway, and it sure looks like there will be an opening there once Panda hits 400 lbs or becomes a 1B or DH.
 
You don't move prospects down the spectrum because of potential major league needs two or three seasons down the road. You move them only if they show they can't handle the position anymore and adjust when you actually run into an roster conflict. Moncada stays at second until he either proves he can't play there or he gets promoted to the majors and Pedroia is still healthy and effective. Sure, he might be likely to move because of Pedroia, but like with Mookie, you keep him at 2nd as long as you can.
 
Edit: Plus, then what do you do with Devers? Move him to first? Now you're lowering the value of two prospects for the sake of avoiding a potential roster conflict that won't actually manifest until the 2017 season.
 

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I agree with Snod and talk about it often.  As well, I think making as few disruptions to Moncada until you have to would be a good move, considering all of the other adjustments he is making (including the fact that he didn't really play in 2014).  Plus Rijo is probably the guy most likely to have to move out of the IF based on his defensive abilities alone.  As noted above, I would rather see Rijo repeat A+ or move to the OF than displace Moncada (especially if it trickles down to Devers).  
 

Koufax

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I hadn't thought of moving from 2B to 3B as a move down the spectrum, but perhaps it is.  If Cuzittt is right and Moncado starts in Portland, doesn't that leave Salem for Devers, who is younger than Mondaco?
 

chrisfont9

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smastroyin said:
I agree with Snod and talk about it often.  As well, I think making as few disruptions to Moncada until you have to would be a good move, considering all of the other adjustments he is making (including the fact that he didn't really play in 2014).  Plus Rijo is probably the guy most likely to have to move out of the IF based on his defensive abilities alone.  As noted above, I would rather see Rijo repeat A+ or move to the OF than displace Moncada (especially if it trickles down to Devers).  
What about in spring training? Or are you suggesting spring of 2017 is when you start moving him around per ML need (assuming he's in Portland in 2016)?
 

smastroyin

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To be honest, I would see how the off-season shakes out first, because I kind of feel there will be some upheaval involving these guys.  
 
But, for 2016 I would have Moncada at 2B at whatever level is appropriate.  I would also leave Rijo at 2B, that may mean he repeats Salem.  He's younger than Moncada, so I'm not too worried about him repeating a level, especially given a pretty tepid (254/311/365) line.  There was that month where everyone was super high on Rijo (largely because he started the season very hot) and I think everyone tends to remember that instead of following along with what he's been doing.
 

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What about in spring training? Or are you suggesting spring of 2017 is when you start moving him around per ML need (assuming he's in Portland in 2016)?
 
Bogaerts had 10 games at 3B for the PawSox, before the Sox brought him up to supplant WMB.  The period of adjustment, depends upon the player, of course, but Moncada is supposed to be very athletic and with a confidence that matches that of Xander.
 

billy ashley

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One point that Smas touched on that probably requires greater attention:
 
Boston left Moncada at 2B this season, largely because he felt comfortable there. They probably don't want to disrupt his development defensively until they absolutely have to. We don't know if the organization believes he's best suited for 2b or 3b or the OF but they indicated going into this season, it was important for the guy to feel comfortable.
 
That's probably true for the beginning of his AA career, too. I wouldn't think they move him until A) he's proven he can't play 2b and it's hurting his ability to advance or B) He's tearing up the high minors and we move him to a position of greatest nee at the mlb level for a couple months in AAA (like Betts, for example)
 

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I'd think the best way to utilize his speed for defense would be in the OF just based off this quote (and 3B with the least reaction time would be the worst place for his speed).
[SIZE=10.6666669845581px]"Plus speed. Takes a little time to get going, but once he does can really move. Long strides, fluid runner."[/SIZE]
 

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This guy is has 43 stolen bases in 71 games. That's a pace for almost 100 over 162. I know his tools were regarded highly but this is otherworldly for someone that (afaik) wasn't really a speedster.
 
Have the Sox had a better prospect since Nomar? I'd take him over everyone in the last 15 years except maybe Ryan Westmoreland.
 
It's actually ridiculous, the Sox could have 3 top 15 prospects at years end.
 

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MLB.com rated his speed as 65 out of 80. I'm not sure what you'd be looking for before calling him a "speedster" but his speed is one of his best tools, if not his best.
 

billy ashley

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Yeah, he's anywhere from a 60 to 70 runner presently- though it's possible that he'll lose a tick of speed as he ages given his size.
 
There's one anecdote of him beating Rusney Castillo in a series of foot races (http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/yoan-moncada-cuban-baseball-star/)
 
I wouldn't get too hung up on the SB total though, he's in the South Atlantic League. Catchers and pitchers aren't really controlling running games for the most part, a lot of them just aren't able too. Remember, Cecchini once stole 50 bases.  It's encouraging that he's got such a great SB % but he's probably "only" a 20-30 SB guy in the majors.
 
Moncada named SAL Most Outstanding Major League Prospect
 
 

Moncada famously signed for a record $31.5 million signing bonus back in March after defecting from Cuba. Because the Red Sox were already over their international bonus limit, they actually had to pay $63 million after taxes to ink the highly coveted, multi-tooled infielder. After starting the year in extended spring training, Moncada made his Minor League debut May 18 for Greenville and struggled out of the gate, hitting just .200 with a .576 OPS in 25 games during the first half of the Sally League season. He's since pulled a 180 and has had much more success as he's become acquainted with life in the States. The 20-year-old has a .328/.432/.540 line with seven homers, 26 RBIs and 41 stolen bases in 49 games after the All-Star break. 
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The idea of a five year run (with extensions for Bogaerts, Betts and Swihart) where Moncada and Devers (not to mention potentially Sam Travis and maybe Benintendi or Margot) are through their rookie adjustments and everyone is playing at a high level is just... well...
 
 

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side note on that story: The Astros are stacked
 
Interested to see Moncada's position still be up in the air. Is 3B an option?
 

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E5 Yaz said:
side note on that story: The Astros are stacked
 
Interested to see Moncada's position still be up in the air. Is 3B an option?
3B or RF would be my guesses.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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He's certainly got the arm for either. With the caveat (again) that there is no reason to move him until he's actually blocked, he's got the athleticism and defensive chops to play pretty much anywhere but catcher or short. If Devers can stick at third for a few years in the majors, it would maximize his value, but Moncada is very likely to beat him to the show, so I'm guessing we'll see Moncada slotted into whatever position is open for him with Devers being moved to what's left open when he's ready in 2018 or 2019. It's not hard to envision Mocada at third and Devers at first in this scenario, but a lot can and will happen between now and then, so who knows?
 

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Does anyone think that by 2017, Pedroia may be the one needing to find a new position?  I say this mainly thinking of how much abuse his body takes at 2B.  The guy hits the dirt so much on dives, not to mention the times he gets taken out at the turn on aa DP.

Could Pedey be the one to transition to another position while Moncada takes over 2B?
 

smastroyin

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Seels said:
This guy is has 43 stolen bases in 71 games. That's a pace for almost 100 over 162. I know his tools were regarded highly but this is otherworldly for someone that (afaik) wasn't really a speedster.
 
Have the Sox had a better prospect since Nomar? I'd take him over everyone in the last 15 years except maybe Ryan Westmoreland.
 
It's actually ridiculous, the Sox could have 3 top 15 prospects at years end.
 
Over Xander?  That would only be because you have seen what Xander did last year and soured on him.  But then if you are using hindsight, why would you put Moncada as a better prospect than say, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury?  
 
Anyway, at Moncada's age Bogaerts was putting up a 311/407/502 line in AA and a 284/369/453 line in AAA and playing in a World Series.  
At Moncada's level, Bogaerts was two years younger and put up a 260/324/509 line.  People are super excited about Devers 288/329/443 at the same age.
 
I feel like people very quickly forget prospect history as soon as they struggle in the majors.  Like if it's not an instant transition to all-star their minor league record disappears.  C'est la vie I guess.
 

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I think it's apples to oranges.  At this age who gives a crap really, they'll both likely be free agents at their peak value.
 
But Moncada did lose a year to immigration.
 

billy ashley

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People totally undersell the the fact that Moncada missed more than a full year of playing competitive baseball. 
 
I don't know if he's a "Better" prospect than Xander was but one could make an argument for Moncada being the best prospect in baseball, if they write off the first half of his 2015 to shaking off the dust. I wouldn't, but I think it's a defensible position. 
 
Going into his debut, Xander was clearly the 2nd best prospect in the league but a lot of analysts were quick to point out that a number of guys graduating early (to be fair, Xander fits this bill as well) had depleted the higher end talent, that season. 
 
I was a huge Westmoreland fan, but I don't think it's fair to compare him to either Xander or Moncada. He was a supremely talented high school outfielder who tore up short season A ball, while playing primarily as a DH due to a shoulder injury. Even before the incredibly unfortunate medical issues arose, there were some concerns that he had trouble staying on the field. If I recall correctly, his breakout year was cut short with a separate injury. He was a top 20 prospect on promise alone but he never got the chance to fully demonstrate how good he cold be. Shame.