If Sandoval is still a terrible hitter and can't field the position in spring training, you really think the Sox will put him at 3B to try to up his trade value?
Yoan Moncada to be called up on Friday
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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The only two things the Sox could be looking for in dealing him are salary relief (which means no real return) or a decent prospect (which means eating the salary). Either way, no one is going to agree to either until he gets back on the field and shows he's not completely washed up. I'll be very surprised if they find a deal that accomplishes either this winter, and I'll be even more surprised if the Sox decide eat his contract AND accept no real return without at least giving him to opportunity to prove he can at least still hit a little.
Yes. He's playing for the Sox early on. It might be at DH instead of third if he looks like a statue out there in spring training, but he'll be a regular in April and probably May at the very least. And if he's at DH, Shaw is starting at third because Moncada needs more time in the minors either way. There is very little chance that Moncada is the starting third baseman for this team in April of 2017.
To be fair, it's a strategy that Cherington and Epstein did. Giving an inferior player time to build up value, while letting a superior player put up good AAA numbers, is how we got Josh Rutledge, after all. Then again, it's also how Tampa got Carlos Pena.
But the S.O.P. of trying to extract as much value as possible from each asset isn't the way DDski does business.
I've been continuously surprised how much of a straight-shooter he's been since coming aboard. He's just very up-front about how he plans on making the team better, and then he does it.
Even if I don't like some of the moves he's made, I've grown to respect him for that.
I pulled this out separately so it wouldn't get lost in the previous post, but again, there are several scenarios in which Moncada could end up in the outfield for Boston and they aren't difficult to imagine. If the Red Sox can build a package for, say, Quintana around JBJ in January, Moncada would probably start getting work in as an outfielder immediately, assuming the club thinks Shaw can continue being a passable starter at third for a few years, or that Panda has a chance to give them another season or two there. Or they could decide to go after Justin Turner. Or they might see a trade opportunity for a third baseman.
I think it's probably more likely (and is preferable by a long shot) to retain JBJ, Mookie and Benintendi as the starting outfield, keep Moncada exclusively at third, and roll the dice with Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Wright, Buchholz and the AAA fodder for the rotation next year, but it's really not hard to see them going in another direction.
DDski already declined to include JBJ in a package for Quintana this deadline, when the Red Sox were desperately seeking rotation help and had a better offense than the one they should expect post-Ortiz. DDski apparently specifically declined to add him into the trade package, as the White Sox asked.
And did you seriously just suggest the Sox might be okay "rolling the dice" with a rotation that includes two 20-game winners in Price and Porcello (he will be), and three All-Stars in Pomeranz and Wright and Buchholz. Plus Rodriguez, who almost threw a no-hitter last night.
I guess sometimes when life throws you lemons, you have to make lemonade.
This team is set, is stacked, and is young. The next three years should be a blast. And Moncada at 3B will be part of that.
Yes, he declined to include JBJ at a time when they were also very thin in the outfield. This winter will present a different set of circumstances.
As for how the rotation forecasts, there is some contrast with your screen name going on, heh. But seriously, Wright shouldn't be counted on to be nearly that good again. Buchholz can suck unmercifully for long stretches, Eduardo has plenty of potential, but has yet to put it together for a full season. And Pomeranz is only now, for the first time, threatening to be on the mound as an effective starter for a full season. There are plenty of question marks there, even if there is plenty of promise. Dombrowski could absolutely be looking for pitching help this winter depending on how he views things.
And again, I think the most likely and most preferable course is to basically stand pat everywhere but the bullpen, but to pretend that's the only plausible course is silly.
Here's Dombrowski's comments on next year's rotation:
"You go into the winter time, if things go along the way that we hope, you end up having four-fifths of your starting rotation settled at the time with guys who are pitching well with [David] Price and [Steven] Wright and [Rick] Porcello and Pomeranz. And then you can add on behind them, and we’ve got some guys who we think are good candidates. But that gives us a good foundation heading into next year.”
Certainly, three of those four have performed as DDski hoped, and I don't think anything Rodriguez (9 GS, 2.73 ERA, 3.76 FIP) or Buchholz (3 GS, 2.70, 2.85 FIP) have done as starters since the trade deadline has taken them out of the running for that 5th rotation spot.
So even if Wright never makes another All-Star Game in his career, the rotation is still stacked 6-deep with such high-quality options that you can't expect to be able to acquire a pitcher that will clearly improve what already is there, except at exorbitant cost.
Really, all the team needs to remain a powerhouse for years to come is continued health, some effective relievers, a plan to solve the Papi-sized hole at DH, and perhaps a better tactical manager.
None of those things argue against playing Moncada at 3B exclusively, where his arm and reflexes certainly make him a potentially above-average fielder, given enough reps there.
I can easily envision a Sandoval/Ramirez rotation at 1B/DH next year with Moncada taking 3B away from Pablo. That's a lot of "ifs" though. If Pablo comes back as the Pablo of old (in which case he may reclaim 3rd)...if Pablo can learn 1B (which seems like a more natural position for him at this point)...if Pablo can hit well enough to justify being a SW DH. All of those things are possible and no one will know until next Spring.
On the other hand, the team could pick up one of the Blue Jays and the whole thing is tossed up in the air again. In any case, I can't see dumping Sandoval for nothing without at least giving him the opportunity to show what he can't do post-surgery and post-weight loss. That's the scenario that could find Moncada starting 2017 in Pawtucket for a couple of months.
On the other hand, the team could pick up one of the Blue Jays and the whole thing is tossed up in the air again. In any case, I can't see dumping Sandoval for nothing without at least giving him the opportunity to show what he can't do post-surgery and post-weight loss. That's the scenario that could find Moncada starting 2017 in Pawtucket for a couple of months.
Sure but I'm not arguing against that being the likely outcome. I'm saying that dismissing the possibility of Moncada in the outfield entirely is folly because it's folly. Now, you can continue to rail against a position I'm not taking or you can address what I'm actually saying. Or you can ignore me entirely, I suppose. Regardless, I've made my point and probably should just step back now.
I'm not looking to move any of the young core. But if it is deemed impossible to keep them all because it will ultimately cost a fortune to keep so many talented players, then the Sox might be in the enviable position of pulling a Tampa Bay - but with far greater resources. That is, just as some of these players hit their primes (or a little into their primes), the Sox deal them for highly regarded "can't miss" prospects or young players. It seemed every year Tampa was dealing away excellent starting pitchers for a package that included good young (cheap) pitching back, and just kept things rolling year after year. This ultimately has caught up with them because they cannot support this strategy with financial resources, should key guys get hurt. But the Sox do.
So maybe they keep a handful of JBJ/Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi/Rodriguez/Vazquez, but then they move a few of them for dynamic prospects who quickly make the majors.
Something like that.
So maybe they keep a handful of JBJ/Betts/Bogaerts/Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi/Rodriguez/Vazquez, but then they move a few of them for dynamic prospects who quickly make the majors.
Something like that.
I really think spring training is going to be most of the deciding factor if Sandoval even makes the roster. Especially if they sign a 1b/DH
He lost his job because he was overweight/ineffective to a guy without a pedigree in Travis Shaw and he's totally susceptible to that again. I think Pablo's only chance is if Moncada shits the bed in spring training and doesn't adapt to balls hit right at him.which is still entirely possible.
I can't believe I'm saying this after Hanley's ineffectiveness for 75% of his time here, but I don't think you move him off first unless they get Encarnacion who doesn't want to DH or whomever. A platoon with Hanley doesn't really make sense either unless it's more than say a .150 point split OPS difference, and that is very doubtful.
Chris Young is still on the roster too, so if they go the cheap route at DH and don't sign anyone, I guess a platoon there could also be a possibility.
He lost his job because he was overweight/ineffective to a guy without a pedigree in Travis Shaw and he's totally susceptible to that again. I think Pablo's only chance is if Moncada shits the bed in spring training and doesn't adapt to balls hit right at him.which is still entirely possible.
I can't believe I'm saying this after Hanley's ineffectiveness for 75% of his time here, but I don't think you move him off first unless they get Encarnacion who doesn't want to DH or whomever. A platoon with Hanley doesn't really make sense either unless it's more than say a .150 point split OPS difference, and that is very doubtful.
Chris Young is still on the roster too, so if they go the cheap route at DH and don't sign anyone, I guess a platoon there could also be a possibility.
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Is there anyone in his league defensively? I've seen him play and he's a human vacuum cleaner with a cannon of an arm. As another replied "the second coming of Brooks Robinson" I'll add a good shot at a trip to Cooperstown.
The thing is, you might now be able to get something pretty useful for Hanley after this season. He's established himself as at least an average-fielding first-baseman, and before this season it was an open question as to whether he had ANYplace he could play in the field. So that increases the number of teams that could use him considerably. Most teams don't want to use a DH-only, and obviously half the teams don't have a DH at all. But everyone needs a quality first-baseman. If he finishes with around 23-25 homers and close to 100 rbi, with his fairly solid fielding, he's a viable major leaguer again.
The Sox could probably trade Hanley for prospects (or maybe a very good reliever), move Shaw to 1b, put Moncada at 3b, have Pablo be the 3b/1b sub, have Sam Travis waiting in the wings, then with the money they save on Hanley, sign Encarnacion, and then have some additional prospects in the pipeline (or maybe that reliever) as a result of the Hanley trade.
I'm not all against moving Hanley but I don't think he's worth very much unless they eat a lot of money. Straight up this year, he's a slightly overpaid average 1B -smack dab in the middle in wRC+ and WAR. No GM cares much about HR as anything more than part of the overall offensive package, and none care about RBI. Chris Carter has 33 home runs and he probably won't make as much as Hanley in the open market
It's some variant of NES, Ben Ten or Benny.
As for Moncada comps, in the minor league thread someone said Bobby Bonds and I countered with Eric Davis.
Hanley Ramirez has been OPSing north of .950 since July 1st, and the only real difference is the slugging %. Considering many thought his power was sapped because of a shoulder injury, I think that's encouraging to see. He's been our 2nd best hitter to only Mookie Betts during that time.
His first 296 at bats this year, he had a .136 ISO. His last 174 at bats, his ISO is .287. He has 51 hits since July 1st, 26 are for extra bases (14 doubles, 12 HRs).
I'd guess Hanley Ramirez would be easy to trade and you wouldn't have to eat any of the contract. I'd also guess he's our starting 1b next year and that Pablo will be the back up 1b/3b or not even on the team.
If he hits like that the rest of the year, they win either way, and he's the toast of the town, but chances are pretty good that he cools off at some point. It's not a hard contract to move, it's just a question to me of whether the return is even worth it.
Anyhow - this is off topic, so I'll let it go.
Because Barry Bonds doesn't strike out. Bobby and Eric do. There aren't many power/speed guys who have the same power as Moncada.
Holy shit, have we not learned our lesson on Buchholz yet? In no way, shape or form should he be on the team next year, let alone be referred to as a "high quality option".
Even though Red Sox fans are tired of him, hell get more than 1/$13 million as a free agent, so we should pick up the option and trade him if they don't want to keep him. Ian Kennedy got 5/$70M.
OK, I was being flippant, but I think it's too early to compare Moncada with anybody. It's like the Mookie to McCutchen comps didn't start until mid last year or something when it looked like Mookie was for real.
It's unfair, but I think Benintendi's poise and success at the plate have created unrealistic expectations for Moncada. The kid clearly has superstar upside, but not every 21- 22-year old can handle the jump from AA (or even AAA) to MLB right away. Remember, Pedroia batted .191 in his call-up year. Maybe it's just me, but Moncada looks a bit wide-eyed and overwhelmed.
Moncada's minor league walk rate is 13.3%. Bo Jackson's MLB walk rate is 7.6%. I'm sure it will be lower, but there is a lot of room there.
And everyone forgot about Devers in this thread! He's a stud prospect too.
Forget Pedroia, look at Ellsbury and Bogaerts. They both came up as late season call-ups and excelled right away to help their teams to the post-season and a championship (which Moncada can still do). They also crashed back to earth pretty hard in their first full seasons after that.
I agree that expectations are a little out of hand currently, but even if he does experience some success over the next four weeks, expectations should remain tempered next year when he is most likely to be better served spending some time in Pawtucket.
I know Farrell likes his roles and all, but maybe it was a mistake to say that Moncada is going to have the lion's share of 3B appearances going forward. Shaw had a bad August. (.542 OPS.) Hill had an equally bad one. (.588 OPS.) If Shaw's dealing with overwork, or a glitch in his swing, he's got a good chance of rebounding to his .800-ish OPS production, which appears to be his baseline (last Aug, Sept, this April, May, July). If Shaw is nursing an injury but playing anyway, I understand plugging Moncada in and just saying "We'll stick by you."
I think people get way too caught up in what people say. If Moncada goes 0--for-this week and looks like shit, Farrell wont keep running him out there
OTOH--
After 4 games, Moncada is at 308/357/385 with 6Ks and 1 BB.
After *his* 4th game, Benintendi was at 222/222/222 with 3Ks and 0 BBs.
Farrell has to be "playoff Farrell" from here on out, especially against division rivals.
It's only reasonable to be fast with the hook; if Moncada is having a bad night (or two) and there's a RHH on the mound with Shaw is on the bench. I don't want to see a situation where Moncada is overmatched in a high leverage situation and Farrell does that dopey "we need to test him out/be consistent" rationale. The marginal wins that allow for that kind of indulgence have already been pissed away.
It's hard to call it "indulgence" when, other than 2 games in which the entire team destroyed the opponent, Shaw has been an automatic out since roughly July 4 and has been especially useless on the road. That's the whole reason Moncada is here in the first place.
If there's a better viable PH on the bench, and Shaw can take over at 3B, it's an indulgence. If Moncada can help, great! If he's bumbling along, there's no reason to keep him out there (especially an early-seaon rationale of exposure and letting him learn as he goes - now's not the time for that.)
Also, does anyone have a likely reason behind Shaw's recent struggles?
I didn't get to watch yesterday's game - was Moncada as overmatched as Rob Bradford makes him sound here:
Dude you don't get it. It is only ten at bats, too soon to judge, (unless he was hitting .500) but not too soon to decide which HOFer he is most like.
He was batting in front of Holaday and Pomeranz. Not even Edwin Jackson was going to challenge him with a fastball to drive.
So yeah, a call-up from AA saw a steady diet of MLB breaking balls from a pitcher who had them working well that day.
It worked well. And because it did, I'm sure you'll get a chance to see for yourself soon.
I can't believe Bradford bosses people around at EEI.
He whiffed in 12 of his first 32 AA at bats. He's also had a golden sombrero and 5 k game while (at the time) OPSing over .900
We know it's probably gonna be a thing. Let's give him some breathing room before turning our lonely eyes to Travis Shaw.
He whiffed in 12 of his first 32 AA at bats. He's also had a golden sombrero and 5 k game while (at the time) OPSing over .900
We know it's probably gonna be a thing. Let's give him some breathing room before turning our lonely eyes to Travis Shaw.
I think the concerns with Moncada may be real, given his numbers at AA. If he does project to strike out about 30% of the time, that will be too much, given his 8% BB rate (ADD: projected).
I would expect they'll give him another 45 PAs, and if he strikes out more than 15 times during that stretch, they won't keep running him out there, unless he's also hitting for more power.
I would expect they'll give him another 45 PAs, and if he strikes out more than 15 times during that stretch, they won't keep running him out there, unless he's also hitting for more power.
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Funny you should ask, Rob Bradford addressed that earlier today:
So, now that we have seen what appears to be a Manny Machado-esque arm, the question has to be — Why was a player with this kind of ability to throw a baseball playing second base? With the help of translator Daveson Perez, Moncada explained.
“The only reason I was at second base was because the Cuban team needed me to be there,” he said. “But now that I’m at third I get the chance to show the arm that I’ve always had.
“I’ve always had a good throwing arm, it just so happened they moved me to second base so I was throwing a lot softer. But the arm has always been there.”
It seems like they could have moved him earlier but I guess they didn't want to throw too much at him at once.
So, now that we have seen what appears to be a Manny Machado-esque arm, the question has to be — Why was a player with this kind of ability to throw a baseball playing second base? With the help of translator Daveson Perez, Moncada explained.
“The only reason I was at second base was because the Cuban team needed me to be there,” he said. “But now that I’m at third I get the chance to show the arm that I’ve always had.
“I’ve always had a good throwing arm, it just so happened they moved me to second base so I was throwing a lot softer. But the arm has always been there.”
It seems like they could have moved him earlier but I guess they didn't want to throw too much at him at once.
FWIW -- I see an overall minor league BB rate of about 13% (114/854; about the same rate if Cuba is included). And 13% at Portland this season (16% at Salem).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=moncad000joh