LahoudOrBillyC said:
Why? It's not like a projection is a guarantee. It's not like 5 WAR is some unreachable star, and it's not like a kid who makes the majors at 21 or 22 shouldn't be projected to have thirteen good years.
Yoan Moncada - I keep checking my timepiece waiting for news.
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Why? It's not like a projection is a guarantee. It's not like 5 WAR is some unreachable star, and it's not like a kid who makes the majors at 21 or 22 shouldn't be projected to have thirteen good years.
On the one hand, I like hearing that the Sox are one of the favorites to land someone who is very talented.
On the other hand, the Red Sox are always named as one of the teams that are the favorites to land someone very talented which makes it almost but not quite entirely meaningless.
Opening Day cannot get here soon enough.
On the other hand, the Red Sox are always named as one of the teams that are the favorites to land someone very talented which makes it almost but not quite entirely meaningless.
Opening Day cannot get here soon enough.
By rule both the Red Sox and Yankees are out of the international bonus baby market in a couple of months. With the possibility of an international draft being implemented in the next CBA Moncada and Alverez may just be their last chances to spend like drunken sailors in a Hong Kong whorehouse on these players.Rovin Romine said:
I'm sorry but how helpful is this? Derek Jeter wasn't projected to be Derek Jeter until he actually started to be, well, Derek Jeter.
The MFYs just paid $155M - actually, $175M if you include the posting fee - for Tanaka, who likely won't reach Jeterian heights. Is/was Tanaka really that much of a better prospect than Moncada?
It seems like most people would say that Moncada is a better prospect than Castillo - at least more upside. I think it's pretty certain that the total outlay of money for Moncada will be higher than the money for Castillo. Given that and the fact that Moncada could really help the MFYs luxury tax problem, it would be awfully curious if the MFYs didn't go to $100M.
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Lets say a team did go 100 million for Moncada. What would the break even point be? 4 WAR for 6 years gives a market value of 168 million (production) in nominal dollars. However, assuming the market price for WAR increases 5% per year, his market value will be about 210 million Assuming Moncada makes 30% of his market value in his cost controlled years with arbitration, and assuming the cost of losing 100 million up front at 5% per year (call it 5 million a year for 8 years with 2 years in minors), that brings his total cost to around 205 million.
So basically break even is as a 4 WAR player on average for 6 years. There have been 122 position players in all of MLB history who attained 24 bWAR in their first 6 years.
I think its far more likely that teams, and the Yankees, account for the risk by valuing Moncada as a 2-3 WAR player and thus he likely gets a bonus in the 25-30 million dollar range. If he becomes the 4-5 WAR player that is projected, thats their surplus value.
The Tanaka investment was actually not much more than the Daisuke investment if you adjust for payroll inflation from 2007-2014. As he was MLB ready he was much easier to project than Moncada. The risk there was with any pitcher, especially those abused for years in Japan, is injury.
I imagine teams can find some ways to minimize the risk of Moncada with insurance, and being relatively young as a non-pitcher the premiums are probably a bit more reasonable.
Rovin Romine said:
Well, yes there is. The LT and revenue sharing rebates have pretty much curtailed the Yankees from being the spenders they once were on the professional free agent market . With amateur IFA talent, the solution is the same as it was in the 60's, which is a draft. Moncada will push MLB to implement a draft, or at least to cap bonuses like they did the posting fees,
Well .. The Yankees and the RedSox are constrained from any big signings this summer. Which is why they might splash the cash on Moncada.Sampo Gida said:
The exodus of Cuban talent has kind of skewered the current International FA structure. Remember, it was designed for signing 16 year old Dominican kids and not mega prospects like Moncada. When teams have a total budget of 8 million or so to spread around several signings the presence of Moncada .. Or future Moncadas is going to force an International draft. Hopefully it wont kill baseball development in the DR and Venezela .. As it has in Puerto Rico.
I understand your analysis, but just from a monetary standpoint, it doesn't take into account potential luxury tax savings. The MFYs have paid something like $250MM in luxury taxes since 2003; if having a minimum salaried 5 WAR player can get them below the luxury tax threshold while still fielding a playoff team, they could potentially save upwards of $30M a year.
We've gone on about there aren't a lot of opportunities for teams to use their financial advantage to obtain 5 WAR players anymore; I won't beat that dead horse again.
Of course you could be dead on about how Cashman is approaching this. I don't think it would be very smart, but it seems like the MFYs doesn't always do the smartest things. This reminds me of the pre-draft bonus cap days. I could never figure out why the MFYs, knowing a signing cap was the horizon, allowed themselves to be out-spent by other teams in those drafts. But for whatever reason, they didn't, and the rest of the league, I'm sure, is certainly appreciative.
Hopefully the same is true here.
Good post.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Baseball media recently has gotten into the habit of reporting about a potential change so much so that the everyone expects it to become reality before the practical difficulties are ever explored. See the collision rule, replay changes, and the latest pace of game machinations. It seems like everyone talking about the Moncada windfall is almost obligated to say "Well this is going to necessitate a international draft".
An international draft is great in cost saving theory, but to enforce and set up would require deals and new rules with all these other leagues that probably are going to have to be given something to agree. Additionally, MLB sometimes doesn't think of the consequences of reactive rule tweaks. Look at the capping of posting fee for Tanaka. Probably lead to Maeda not getting posted this year.
More specifically on Moncada Gammons and Cafardo had some interesting tid bits today
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Peter GammonsVerified account@pgammoWhy Yoan Moncada might be the best $100M Yankees can spend @nypost In the end, Yanks, Dodgers, Red Sox think this way
4. Yoan Moncada, INF, free agent — The 19-year-old switch hitter from Cuba may be on the verge of deciding which major league team he’ll sign with. One GM from a team that was in the hunt and now is no longer in said he would bet on the Yankees. “I think their need is great,” said the GM. “They can sell it as the replacement for Robinson Cano. I don’t think anyone wants to pay out that bonus, but he is a special talent and may be the best of the Cuban hitters who have come over.” The bonus could get up to $50 million. The Dodgers have balked at paying that but remain interested. The Red Sox, Padres, and Phillies are also in the hunt.
I think 50 mill in cash due to the commish is really hard to come up with and the total 100 mill is additionally a number these teams even if they love him would rather avoid. Going to be interesting what the final number is.
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There's a point that needs to be made that I haven't seen made yet.
The Moncada signing won't necessitate a draft, but it will likely fund one. The penalty money gets paid into a fund that the commish can use to further baseball operations outside the US. The one thing the head office wants right now is a draft and this signing is going to give them tens of millions of dollars to make it happen.
The Moncada signing won't necessitate a draft, but it will likely fund one. The penalty money gets paid into a fund that the commish can use to further baseball operations outside the US. The one thing the head office wants right now is a draft and this signing is going to give them tens of millions of dollars to make it happen.
The majority assume that a player signed with Boreass is too demanding and is a complete asshole.
I think Borass is fine and his clients are playing Biz.
I picked 91 which I believe is just a tad optimistic.
Should an ace be bought or one of our own step up...100 and up could happen.
I think Borass is fine and his clients are playing Biz.
I picked 91 which I believe is just a tad optimistic.
Should an ace be bought or one of our own step up...100 and up could happen.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees were leaking this to temper other bids, knowing they had every intention to surpass itRasputin said:
@redsoxstats: The Star-Ledger: Moncada's agent expects him to sign with a team by tomorrow. http://t.co/TgoGT4wfxP
My birthday is Tuesday. An announcement that he has signed with the Red Sox would be a great present, Ben.
Thanks in advance.
Thanks in advance.
Pretty significant quotes in the Post that I don't really know how to interpret
http://nypost.com/2015/02/22/the-27-year-old-catch-to-signing-cuban-phenom-moncada/
When Moncada was declared a free agent by MLB, there was speculation he could command as much as $50 million to sign. That appears to have drastically been reduced, with several baseball decision-makers believing it will be closer to $20 million.
The Yankees have worked out Moncada three times, twice last week, and remain high on his tools, but aren’t willing to reach deep into the Steinbrenner family vault for a 19-year-old. If Moncada signs with the Yankees, whatever sum they agree to pay is doubled because the Yankees have exceeded their international signing limit for this period.
It is possible the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Moncada could reach a decision Tuesday, one day before Yankees position players report to George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Heading into the final lap, it appears the Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are the leading candidates.
The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and Mesa, and fellow Cuban right-hander and former Yankee Orlando “El Duque’’ Hernandez has spoken to Moncada.
http://nypost.com/2015/02/22/the-27-year-old-catch-to-signing-cuban-phenom-moncada/
When Moncada was declared a free agent by MLB, there was speculation he could command as much as $50 million to sign. That appears to have drastically been reduced, with several baseball decision-makers believing it will be closer to $20 million.
The Yankees have worked out Moncada three times, twice last week, and remain high on his tools, but aren’t willing to reach deep into the Steinbrenner family vault for a 19-year-old. If Moncada signs with the Yankees, whatever sum they agree to pay is doubled because the Yankees have exceeded their international signing limit for this period.
It is possible the 6-foot-2, 220-pound Moncada could reach a decision Tuesday, one day before Yankees position players report to George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Heading into the final lap, it appears the Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are the leading candidates.
The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and Mesa, and fellow Cuban right-hander and former Yankee Orlando “El Duque’’ Hernandez has spoken to Moncada.
You left out another important part
@redsoxstats: "The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and [his mentor]." http://t.co/VDwA6OCu3Z
@redsoxstats: "The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and [his mentor]." http://t.co/VDwA6OCu3Z
TAMPA — Yoan Moncada likely will sign with the team that offers the most money.
However, there is a catch to landing the 19-year-old, switch-hitting Cuban second baseman: Carlos Mesa.
According to people with knowledge of the situation, Moncada wants his future team to sign his mentor, a 27-year-old outfielder who played in Cuba for two years as a teenager, was inactive for three seasons, spent three years in the lower levels of the Pirates system and last season worked for Camden (Independent League).
“You might have to keep [Mesa] around to help him,’’ a source said.
When Moncada was declared a free agent by MLB, there was speculation he could command as much as $50 million to sign. That appears to have drastically been reduced, with several baseball decision-makers believing it will be closer to $20 million.
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Heading into the final lap, it appears the Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are the leading candidates.
The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and Mesa, and fellow Cuban right-hander and former Yankee Orlando “El Duque’’ Hernandez has spoken to Moncada.
“He is good,’’ said El Duque, who watched Moncada work out last week and believes he is an eventual big league player. “He can hit.”
However, there is a catch to landing the 19-year-old, switch-hitting Cuban second baseman: Carlos Mesa.
According to people with knowledge of the situation, Moncada wants his future team to sign his mentor, a 27-year-old outfielder who played in Cuba for two years as a teenager, was inactive for three seasons, spent three years in the lower levels of the Pirates system and last season worked for Camden (Independent League).
“You might have to keep [Mesa] around to help him,’’ a source said.
When Moncada was declared a free agent by MLB, there was speculation he could command as much as $50 million to sign. That appears to have drastically been reduced, with several baseball decision-makers believing it will be closer to $20 million.
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Heading into the final lap, it appears the Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are the leading candidates.
The Red Sox have had Cuban legend Luis Tiant talk to Moncada and Mesa, and fellow Cuban right-hander and former Yankee Orlando “El Duque’’ Hernandez has spoken to Moncada.
“He is good,’’ said El Duque, who watched Moncada work out last week and believes he is an eventual big league player. “He can hit.”
Sorry if this was asked/answered: is this a blind bid process or teams will be able to bid multiple times, increasing their initial bid to get Moncada?
Can't speak for anyone else. But I have seen no information outlining the bidding process. I would guess blind bids .. But that's just a guess.ArgentinaSOXfan said:
Wow, that's some insightful analysis. I guess you have to be a former major league player to be able to see that kind of talent.
The guy weighs 220 pounds at 19 years old and there's serious talk that he'll be a 2nd baseman in MLB?
No way. There's never been a successful 230 pound or 240 pound second baseman in MLB, has there? And he could weigh more than that by the time he's 22 or 23. No way. He's a third baseman, first baseman or an outfielder.
No way. There's never been a successful 230 pound or 240 pound second baseman in MLB, has there? And he could weigh more than that by the time he's 22 or 23. No way. He's a third baseman, first baseman or an outfielder.
Heyman weighing in seemingly from the agent or other teams countering the Yankees pessimistic evaluation .....
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25078514/bids-are-coming-in-on-moncada-19-and-so-far-theyre-past-20m
TAMPA -- Multiple bids are in on Cuban infield prodigy Yoan Moncada, and bidding is believed past $20 million, perhaps significantly so.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are believed among teams in talks, with even theDodgers and others seen as less likely at the moment. Moncada's agent David Hastings said a few days ago they are targeting the end of February to have a deal so Moncada can get to spring camp not far behind others, and that seems realistic as negotiations are heating up now.
They way it's written suggest a classic bidding process, but really only significant as I see this as more of a direct shot of refutation to recent NY articles.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25078514/bids-are-coming-in-on-moncada-19-and-so-far-theyre-past-20m
TAMPA -- Multiple bids are in on Cuban infield prodigy Yoan Moncada, and bidding is believed past $20 million, perhaps significantly so.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Padres are believed among teams in talks, with even theDodgers and others seen as less likely at the moment. Moncada's agent David Hastings said a few days ago they are targeting the end of February to have a deal so Moncada can get to spring camp not far behind others, and that seems realistic as negotiations are heating up now.
They way it's written suggest a classic bidding process, but really only significant as I see this as more of a direct shot of refutation to recent NY articles.
@jessesanchez: BREAKING - Source: Cuban INF prospect Yoan Moncada agrees with Red Sox on a deal in $30 million range. Check http://MLB.com .
Mlb.com doesn't have it yet, but mlbtr does:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/red-sox-to-sign-yoan-moncada.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/red-sox-to-sign-yoan-moncada.html
Yeah it looks like he tweeted it before they put it up on MLB.com(still haven't yet). The trade rumors thing is based on the tweet.Savin Hillbilly said:
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