Yoan Moncada - I keep checking my timepiece waiting for news.

Status
Not open for further replies.

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
It's fine to hope that there is some sneaky way they can manipulate to get his entire "signing fee" to not count.  But the ways to do that I think are going to mean he is treated like a minor league player, has three options, waits six years service time to hit FA, etc. 
 
(ed. after Cumby's post) I am going to guess his agent is going to look for ways to get around that kind of control.  If he is subject to it, he obviously may be chomping at the bit, but the better play would be for him to get two more years in the Cuban league and not be subject to MLB's indentured servitude for up to 12 years (13 depending on his birthday and if the 4th option year would apply).  But I'm not him.
 
If the bonus doesn't count, and he can't be given an explicit contract roster guarantee or any guarantee of major league salary, just a huge chunk of money up front, then if I were him I would put more emphasis on path to the majors, as getting the clock started is most important with MLB rules.  Like, even sucking incredibly in the majors in 2015 and 2016 will not really reflect on a poor arbitration award if he is then good in 2017.  Being kept in the minors until he is ready means he doesn't hit arb for that much longer.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Also, regardless, you are already paying a 100% penalty.  So...avoiding the steepest luxury tax penalty (50% on the marginal amount above the threshold) doesn't really result in payback by itself.
 
In general I am just 100% against the people who say "must be signed at any cost" because of bonus pool and CBA considerations.  The numbers don't add up that way - the 100% penalty on the bonus pool makes it that way.  The way the numbers add up is by assessing the chances he will be a certain level of player and assessing the cost of acquiring that level of player through other means, etc.  Just like anyone else.  I know I know why should I be concerned about John Henry's money.  But in terms of the decision making process of the Red Sox, it absolutely has to be considered.  
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
snowmanny said:
It's equally asinine to not think that having Boras as an agent has an effect on the likelihood of any given player signing an extension.
Yes it would be. But no one here is taking that position.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,499
snowmanny said:
It's equally asinine to not think that having Boras as an agent has an effect on the likelihood of any given player signing an extension.  I mean, after Mike F'n Trout signed his extension, Boras went on a ramble about the price of tea futures which translated to: I wouldn't have had him sign it if he'd been my client.
I thought that Bogaerts agent was his brother?
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
smastroyin said:
Also, regardless, you are already paying a 100% penalty.  So...avoiding the steepest luxury tax penalty (50% on the marginal amount above the threshold) doesn't really result in payback by itself.
 
In general I am just 100% against the people who say "must be signed at any cost" because of bonus pool and CBA considerations.  The numbers don't add up that way - the 100% penalty on the bonus pool makes it that way.  The way the numbers add up is by assessing the chances he will be a certain level of player and assessing the cost of acquiring that level of player through other means, etc.  Just like anyone else.  I know I know why should I be concerned about John Henry's money.  But in terms of the decision making process of the Red Sox, it absolutely has to be considered.  
 
Teams are not paying the penalty,  Moncada is.  Its like the posting fee when the Red Sox paid 50 million to Seibu and another 52 to Daisuke.  They valued Daisukes worth as 102 million, paid Seibu what they needed to and Daisuke got the left overs.  Same thing here, they value Moncada what they think he is worth, and pay MLB half as a tax, and Moncada gets the left overs.
 
Red Sox still on the hook for his miniumum salary, and his arb salaries.  If he is a 5 WAR player and pay 80-100 for him, there is still plenty of surplus value. If he is 3 WAR or less, they are at break even or below.    Projections for guys Moncadas age are uncertain, so there is some risk.
 
Basically, Moncada is in the same situation as any number 1 pick in the US, except he gets a much bigger bonus (maybe 40 million instead of 8 million) and gets to choose his team.  40 million is not a bad way to start your career.  Waiting 2 years for a bigger payday, and who knows, anything could happen, and some of the bad stuff hurts his value
 

Yaz4Ever

MemBer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2004
11,291
MA-CA-RI-AZ-NC
How do we pronounce this kid's first name?
 
Yone like bone?
Yo-ahn?
Juan?
Steve?
 
This is how little I really know about him but I'd still like to see us in on the bidding because of all the hype here.  He's something shiny and new and I want him.  
 

Darnell's Son

He's a machine.
Moderator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,581
Providence, RI
Yaz4Ever said:
How do we pronounce this kid's first name?
 
Yone like bone?
Yo-ahn?
Juan?
Steve?
 
This is how little I really know about him but I'd still like to see us in on the bidding because of all the hype here.  He's something shiny and new and I want him.  
I think it's pronounced Jo-ahn. His birth name is Johan according to Baseball Reference.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,801
(ed. after Cumby's post) I am going to guess his agent is going to look for ways to get around that kind of control.  If he is subject to it, he obviously may be chomping at the bit, but the better play would be for him to get two more years in the Cuban league and not be subject to MLB's indentured servitude for up to 12 years (13 depending on his birthday and if the 4th option year would apply).  But I'm not him.
I don't think there's much his agent can do contractually - the rules were tightened up in the last CBA. Specifically, Attachment 46 states that any player subject to the international signing bonus pool has to sign a minor league uniform contract.

The CBA then says:

"Bonuses paid to International Players will not count toward a Club’s Signing Bonus Pool in the following two circumstances: a. Players who previously contracted with a Major or Minor League Club. b. Players who are least 23 years of age and have played as a professional in a league recognized by the Commissioner’s Office for a minimum of five seasons. . . . In all signing periods following the 20132014 signing period, Cuban players only will be exempt if they are 23 years of age and have played as a professional in a Cuban professional league for a minimum of five seasons."

Given that the Sox are in pretty good shape viz-a-viz the luxury tax, they have less incentive to throw stupid $ atMoncada but if the guy can be a stud in the majors in two years, MFYs could conceivably save millions on their lixury tax payments if he is instrumental in getting them under the luxury tax threshold (for example).
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,513


Agree. If the sox really want him it should not matter what position he plays.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,513
“@JeffPassan: The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.”
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,506
Not here
ArgentinaSOXfan said:
I will tell you the truth: If you tell me he signs with anyone but NYY or Boston, Im fine with it. 
And if its in the NL, that much better. 
 
When the Yankees aren't spending money, the world looks very strange.
 
When the Yankees are willing to spend it and can't, I question whether I'm on drugs.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,801
Out of curiosity, I went back to the CBA to see how the MLB handles the tax proceeds, Section II.C.4. of Attachment 46 states: "During the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 signing periods, any tax proceeds generated as a result of a Club exceeding its [International] Signing Bonus Pool will be used by the Office of the Commissioner, after considering the recommendations of the [International Talent Committee formed pursuant to Attachment 46], to offset the cost of international reforms. Thereafter, unless an international draft becomes operational, the Office of the Commissioner may use the tax proceeds to further the international development of baseball."

$30-$50M should go a long way in developing baseball on an international basis.
 

Pozo the Clown

New Member
Sep 13, 2006
745
Rasputin said:
 
When the Yankees are willing to spend it and can't, I question whether I'm on drugs.
 
With all due respect, I'd assumed that all 26,657 of your posts had been fueled, at least in part, by drugs. ;)
 

The Boomer

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2000
2,232
Charlottesville, Virginia
Rather than start a new thread, I wondered how their draft status would affect how far they would go to sign Moncada.  Despite having the 7th pick in the 2015 amateur draft first round, the Sox have surprisingly little to spend in the 2015 draft pool:
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/mlb-draft-order-set.html
 
To exceed this spending limit, leads to the same kinds of problems.  Weirdly, is it arguably less risky to spend more, as they did for Rusney Castillo, to get premium amateur talent than it is to pay the going rate for declining but proven ML free agent pitchers or players -even your own (e.g.Lester & Ellsbury)?  Moncada, the #7 first round pick (I'm biased here in Charlottesville about lefty Nathan Kirby of UVA who twirled 7 shutout innings in yesterday's opener), plus an amateur draft flyer or two arguably could be a better way to spend money.  Is engaging in a certain amount of speculation in young amateur talent more cost effective than spending even greater amounts on more proven ML free agents? 
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
The Boomer said:
Rather than start a new thread, I wondered how their draft status would affect how far they would go to sign Moncada.  Despite having the 7th pick in the 2015 amateur draft first round, the Sox have surprisingly little to spend in the 2015 draft pool:
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/mlb-draft-order-set.html
 
To exceed this spending limit, leads to the same kinds of problems.  Weirdly, is it arguably less risky to spend more, as they did for Rusney Castillo, to get premium amateur talent than it is to pay the going rate for declining but proven ML free agent pitchers or players -even your own (e.g.Lester & Ellsbury)?  Moncada, the #7 first round pick (I'm biased here in Charlottesville about lefty Nathan Kirby of UVA who twirled 7 shutout innings in yesterday's opener), plus an amateur draft flyer or two arguably could be a better way to spend money.  Is engaging in a certain amount of speculation in young amateur talent more cost effective than spending even greater amounts on more proven ML free agents? 
 
Young talent is arguably riskier and they don't help your team today.   Padres just spent less than what it will cost to sign Moncada on Shields for 4 years, with the cost spread out, and are pretty much a lock to get 10 WAR out of him barring injury starting today.  Moncada is 1-2 years away, and even if he is a stud you still have to pay his arb years and factor in the time value  of the initial upfront investment at 4 million a year (5%).  As a 5 WAR player there still will be a healthy surplus value, but you likely approach break even at league average, and its a healthy loss if he is a bust.
 
Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees should be able to do both with their revenues (team and RSN), and sign free agents and amateurs.  While there does not seem to be a compelling need for Moncada at present, as someone upthread alluded to, this can change quick. Pedroias decline may be looming earlier than expected (and may not),  and Papis retirement not far away,  and while some of the young guys look like they could be pretty good, prospects don't always work out. 
 
Moncada will be looking for a team that gives him the fast track to MLB and as someone suggested Hanley to DH when Papi retires opens up LF, although Papi may not be ready to retire next year. LF sort of hurts Moncadas future value as a free agent, and he may want a faster track than the Red Sox can offer him, so if the moneys equal he may choose elsewhere if that provides a faster track and better positional openings
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
If he's smart he won't be looking for the fastest path to the majors so much as the best path to a long and profitable career. That might sound like a difference in semantics, but it's not. Players who are rushed often flame out. Development time is important and getting to the majors after a year but being a 2-3 win player for 15 years won't earn him as much as getting to the majors in 2 or 3 years and being a 4-5 win player for 12.
 
If the Red Sox are trying to convince him to sign they should be less focused on "We'll get you to the majors by x date" and more focused on "We can help you reach this level of play, which will be better for you long term."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,801
If he's smart he won't be looking for the fastest path to the majors so much as the best path to a long and profitable career.
While your point is generally correct, Moncada is going to have a very profitable career even if he never plays a day in the MLB.

As for that video, he certainly does look like a man amongst kids. Teams have to be wondering how he got that way. Glad I don't have to make that decision.
 

Doctor G

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 24, 2007
2,331
Sampo Gida said:
Young talent is arguably riskier and they don't help your team today.   Padres just spent less than what it will cost to sign Moncada on Shields for 4 years, with the cost spread out, and are pretty much a lock to get 10 WAR out of him barring injury starting today.  Moncada is 1-2 years away, and even if he is a stud you still have to pay his arb years and factor in the time value  of the initial upfront investment at 4 million a year (5%).  As a 5 WAR player there still will be a healthy surplus value, but you likely approach break even at league average, and its a healthy loss if he is a bust.
 
Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees should be able to do both with their revenues (team and RSN), and sign free agents and amateurs.  While there does not seem to be a compelling need for Moncada at present, as someone upthread alluded to, this can change quick. Pedroias decline may be looming earlier than expected (and may not),  and Papis retirement not far away,  and while some of the young guys look like they could be pretty good, prospects don't always work out. 
 
Moncada will be looking for a team that gives him the fast track to MLB and as someone suggested Hanley to DH when Papi retires opens up LF, although Papi may not be ready to retire next year. LF sort of hurts Moncadas future value as a free agent, and he may want a faster track than the Red Sox can offer him, so if the moneys equal he may choose elsewhere if that provides a faster track and better positional openings
moncada would probably be tried in right or center with Betts moving to left as he has the weakest arm.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Yes, he's going to make more money than most of us can really wrap our heads around, but he's already going to be set for life with his signing bonus. That puts him in a position to try and maximize very last penny he can earn from that point forward and rushing to the majors isn't necessarily the path to the most money. If I'm pitching him on the Red Sox, I'm trying to convince him that while he may take a year or two longer to reach the show, we can do a better job of preparing him for his major league career and thus, can offer him a path to a more profitable career overall.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,506
Not here
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yes, he's going to make more money than most of us can really wrap our heads around, but he's already going to be set for life with his signing bonus. That puts him in a position to try and maximize very last penny he can earn from that point forward and rushing to the majors isn't necessarily the path to the most money. If I'm pitching him on the Red Sox, I'm trying to convince him that while he may take a year or two longer to reach the show, we can do a better job of preparing him for his major league career and thus, can offer him a path to a more profitable career overall.
 
I'm telling him that this team is primed to be the best team in the American League for most of the next decade and if he wants to play on the highest stage in the world, It's with the Red Sox.
 

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
2,344
Rasputin said:
 
I'm telling him that this team is primed to be the best team in the American League for most of the next decade and if he wants to play on the highest stage in the world, It's with the Red Sox.
 
(Or Angels, or Dodgers, or Cubs.....)
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,506
Not here
NDame616 said:
 
(Or Angels, or Dodgers, or Cubs.....)
 
I really doubt the Dodgers or Cubs are going to be the best team in the AL, but yeah, your overall point is fine, there are other teams that can make the same claim with some semblance of sanity.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,513
 
 
Cuban wunderkind Yoan Moncada, whose free agency is about the most interesting thing in baseball right now that doesn't involve Alex Rodriguez, has moved into the "contract phase" of the process, according to Moncada's agent David Hastings.
That means Moncada and his representative are done with all the private workouts (or close to it) and have begun fielding offers, with hopes for a deal by the end of February.
Moncada, a powerful 19-year-old infielder, is expected to cost somewhere in the eight-figure category, with executive/scout estimates ranging from as low as $12 million to upwards of $50 million. Some of the main players in this derby are expected to be the big-market, big-spending DodgersYankees and Red Sox, but several surprise small-market teams are also thought to be in the hunt, including the Padres, who have made a major mark this winter already, and perhaps even the heretofore under-the-radar Brewers, who have been otherwise eerily quiet this winter.
The wildly divergent contract estimates for Moncada can be explained by a number of factors, from Moncada's special talent to his youthfulness (although he's a teenager he may only be one or two years away from the majors -- if that) to a system that will tax some of the possible signing teams as much as 100 percent of the deal (the Yankees and Red Sox are two of the teams in lined to be taxed that high, based on pervious international signings).
Moncada has said through Hastings he is aiming to become a franchise player who forever remains with one chosen team, and interestingly, he is still hoping to pick that team by the end of this month, or thereabouts, with the intention of getting quickly to spring training to try to make the major-league team this year. "I am hopeful by the end of next week we'll have everything necessary to make a decision on where he's going to be playing," Hastings, a CPA by profession, said from his St. Petersburg, Fla., office.
There is little doubt among most baseball scouts Moncada, an extraordinarily powerful infielder, is a special talent.
"Dynamic, electric, explosive, robust talent," is the way one scout put it. "All thirty teams will have some degree of interest. The competition will be fierce for his services, no doubt."
While the Rangers and Cubs, the two teams disallowed from signing for more than $250,000 until July, would have to be seen as major long shots since Moncada wants to get to camp as soon as possible, they are two of the half-dozen are so teams to have worked out Moncada in private sessions. (Of course, it remains hard to see either one of those being able to convince him to wait until summer to sign when he appears anxious to get started.)
Of the dozen or so teams to work him out, at least half have had him in for a private workout. Most of the rhetoric remains flowery in its praise, with scouts emphasizing his amazing strength, speed and arm at such a young age -- though, a couple scouts offered slightly less glowing reviews, with one noting that his extraordinary speed (6.65 in a 60) hasn't translated to stolen-base ability and his right-side swing pales compared to his strong lefty swing.
Even that scout sees him as an everyday player, but warned, "There are just enough holes to keep him in the .260 range."
Some say the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Moncada will need to stay at second base, or possibly play third base, with little or no likelihood to be able to make a switch to shortstop. But others see that as nitpicking an extraordinary talent.
Hastings says he is not a scout or evaluator but adds, "I personally think he's going to be everything everyone says he'll be. He has a maturity well beyond 19. He's got the right mindset."
 
2. Red Sox: Boston definitely is involved, but if they believe he's a second baseman, well, franchise man Dustin Pedroia is under contract for seven more years. They do like Moncada and don't shy away in the international scene, as evidenced by the record $72.5-million deal for Rusney Castillo.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25073909/moncada-market-yankees-dodgers-red-sox-and-some-surprises
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,480
deep inside Guido territory
TAMPA — The Yankees may not want to invest $30 million to $50 million for Yoan Moncada, but they continue to evaluate the Cuban infielder.
On Thursday, for the second straight day, the Yankees held a private workout for the 19-year-old switch-hitter that was attended by club scouts, team officials and general partner Hank Steinbrenner, who is rarely seen around the team.
Wednesday night’s workout was held at George M. Steinbrenner Field under the lights. Moncada took ground balls at second and third and faced live minor league pitching. On Thursday the showcase was shifted to the minor league complex and conducted in daylight, and he again faced minor league hurlers.
The Yankees have held three private workouts for Moncada.
The Yankees’ continued interest in Moncada is a sign they want as much information on him in case the price ends up being more reasonable than the numbers that have been speculated. The Yankees don’t want to pay $30 million to $50 million for a 19-year-old who is at least two years away from the big leagues.
 
http://nypost.com/2015/02/20/another-yoan-moncada-workout-draws-hank-steinbrenner/
 
 
Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler  4m4 minutes ago
Sounds like the Yankees workout will be the last private workout for Yoan Moncada. Expectation among people involved is he signs next week.
 
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 13, 2013
455
soxhop411 said:
https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/568889999766257664"]28s

link to tweet[/url]
[URL="https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/568889999766257664

https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/568889999766257664"]28

link to tweet seconds ago[/url]
Sounds like the Yankees workout will be the last private workout for Yoan Moncada. Expectation among people involved is he signs next week.

This pretty much confirms that Moncada will be a Yankee, right?
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,458
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
Jake Peavy's Demons said:
This pretty much confirms that Moncada will be a Yankee, right?
Why are you assuming that? It was the second workout with NY from what I have read. I don't think it means anything. Now, I would rate the MFY and Dodgers in the lead .. Doesn't mean anything though.

As for Boston I have trouble seeing them making a 60-70 million investment in a 19 year old kid.
 

Galway Sox Fan

New Member
Dec 8, 2013
394
Right now the Yankees are in A bad place. If our scouting department think this kid is a phenomenal talent then we should bid extra to keep him from the Yankees. If this guy projects to a Jeter prime replacement then it is worth just cash to us. This is how the Yankees will market their offer to him. I fear we will lose out twice on this.. Once on the player and secondly on the positive effect he brings to the Yankees. We should go all out on this guy.
 

Fireball Fred

New Member
Jul 29, 2005
172
NoCa Mass.
Has there ever been an auction situation with back-and-forth bidding (unlike the one-bid Matsuzaka posting) between the Sox and Yanks that NY didn't win? Just asking.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Shit, the day a team overpays to keep a 19-year old away from a rival is the day that GM should retire.
 
(I guess doing that for a 29-year old gets the GM a contract extension)
 

jimbobim

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2012
1,558
geoduck no quahog said:
Shit, the day a team overpays to keep a 19-year old away from a rival is the day that GM should retire.
 
(I guess doing that for a 29-year old gets the GM a contract extension)
 
In a vacuum this is very true, but doesn't this happen non monetary wise in college with money being artificially capped or restricted all the time with big time recruiting ? 
 
The local Yankee beat writers are definitely not giving off as desperate a vibe as they were when NY paid MV for Tanaka which obviously  differs from Moncada in several ways. The point being the King article today stressed how the Yanks don't necessarily want to overpay and almost even want a bargain 40 mill 20 reg 20 tax commitment for a potential elite talent.
 
Ultimately, it comes down to how the Red Sox baseball people evaluate him and they've been consistently mentioned as finalists or a possible option with the most recent being Badler and Heyman's pieces so I think it's safe to say the like what they see .
 
I would say it's consensus from national writers/scouts that he projects to a higher ceiling than people envision for Castillo .When it comes to "overpaying" I'd say the winning bid falls somewhere between 40-50 which is why I don't get the Yankees selling this "price has to be right" angle.  I think I'd draw my line in the sand at 45 mill 90 with tax based on public information and obviously that would change downward if my scouts weren't similarly in love. There are a lot of reasons why you can argue against that commitment , but if he's in that Abreu or Puig class you are getting in at the preferable time for growth and projection. I'd say two years in minors and we'll see what to do at 21. Also read somewhere that Dodgers are potentially comfortable with 40 mill, but they haven't broken their prospect pool ceiling yet so a bit less of an incentive for them from that perspective. 
 

kieckeredinthehead

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,635
LahoudOrBillyC said:
 
No prospect in history has ever projected to be as good as Jeter was in his prime.
I guess this is technically true in the sense that Trout isn't so much projected to be as good as Jeter in his prime as that he's already better.
 

LahoudOrBillyC

Indian name is Massages Ellsbury
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
4,073
Willamette Valley
kieckeredinthehead said:
I guess this is technically true in the sense that Trout isn't so much projected to be as good as Jeter in his prime as that he's already better.
Trout is not a prospect. When he was, projecting/expecting a Jeter career would have been foolhardy.
 

kieckeredinthehead

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,635
LahoudOrBillyC said:
Trout is not a prospect. When he was, projecting/expecting a Jeter career would have been foolhardy.
So are we talking career or in his prime? Sometime between early 2011 when Trout was being compared to Mantle and the end of 2012 when he was polishing off a 10 WAR season, he stopped being a prospect. I bet one sharp eyed scout knew before that point (whenever it was) that he had at least one good 7 WAR season in him - equivalent to Jeter's best.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,252
kieckeredinthehead said:
So are we talking career or in his prime? Sometime between early 2011 when Trout was being compared to Mantle and the end of 2012 when he was polishing off a 10 WAR season, he stopped being a prospect. I bet one sharp eyed scout knew before that point (whenever it was) that he had at least one good 7 WAR season in him - equivalent to Jeter's best.
Didn't Ruben Rivera get compared to Mantle too? Nobody "knew" Trout had a 7 WAR in him until he actually did it.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,725
Melrose, MA
kieckeredinthehead said:
So are we talking career or in his prime? Sometime between early 2011 when Trout was being compared to Mantle and the end of 2012 when he was polishing off a 10 WAR season, he stopped being a prospect. I bet one sharp eyed scout knew before that point (whenever it was) that he had at least one good 7 WAR season in him - equivalent to Jeter's best.
At least 20 teams (and probably 32) did not know that he would be the best in his draft class.
 

kieckeredinthehead

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,635
Eddie Jurak said:
At least 20 teams (and probably 32) did not know that he would be the best in his draft class.
Somebody define when a guy stops being a prospect. I was unaware that it was the day of the draft.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,526
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Galway Sox Fan said:
Right now the Yankees are in A bad place. If our scouting department think this kid is a phenomenal talent then we should bid extra to keep him from the Yankees. If this guy projects to a Jeter prime replacement then it is worth just cash to us. This is how the Yankees will market their offer to him. I fear we will lose out twice on this.. Once on the player and secondly on the positive effect he brings to the Yankees. We should go all out on this guy.
 
And what happens a year from now when the next hot international commodity is available?  Or the next?  There's no way we can stop the Yankees from acquiring talent.   Attempting to do so by bidding up and signing the hottest/sexiest name on the current market is really what put the Yankees in the hole they're currently enjoying. 
 

LahoudOrBillyC

Indian name is Massages Ellsbury
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 10, 2003
4,073
Willamette Valley
kieckeredinthehead said:
Somebody define when a guy stops being a prospect. I was unaware that it was the day of the draft.
 
This thread is about a guy who is probably two years away from the big leagues.  If there is a team out there that projects (not "hopes", not "thinks he has a shot to be") that Moncada is going to have a Derek Jeter prime (average 5.0 WAR for 13 years) then that team is doing it wrong.  
 
Status
Not open for further replies.