Yoan Moncada - I keep checking my timepiece waiting for news.

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Snodgrass'Muff

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I figure it's probably time this kid had his own thread. He's been dominating the Assorted Rumors thread for a while.
 
soxhop411 said:
“@SPWill: Moncada said to http://MLB.com goal is to make it to majors ASAP. LAD/NYY roster has easier path to MLB at 2B/SS/3B than #RedSox.”
 
 
soxhop411 said:
 
For anyone who hasn't been paying attention, he's the 19 year old Cuban infielder (2B, SS, 3B) who is the first Cuban baseball player to be granted a Visa by Cuba and is being granted his free agent status by MLB without the need for a specific license that previous Cubans had to get. Instead, he's being granted a general license. That doesn't have a material impact on his status beyond him being granted the right to sign a bit sooner.
 
He is subject to international bonus rules since he is younger than 23 and has less than 5 seasons played in Cuba's professional league. That means that any team that signs him, since he is reportedly looking at 30-40 million, will be going over the tax threshold and will trigger the 100% tax on that contract. Chances are he'll end up with one of the more wealthy teams and speculation has him connected to the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Tigers to name a few. Teams that are already well over the limit this year and are looking at the strictest spending limits next year anyway are the Red Sox and Yankees, so there is absolutely no downside to signing this kid with a 100% tax penalty. At least, not beyond the risk of wasting 60-80 million on someone who flames out in AA.
 
Teams who have not reached the threshold this year might be inclined to save their money and splash the pot next year the way the Red Sox and Yankees did this year, but the chance to acquire someone as highly regarded as Moncada is a rare one and I doubt any of the teams connected to him would hesitate to pull the trigger because of what they might find on the international market next year.
 
A decision is expected some time this month.
 

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Another factor is the possible change in the whole international amateur free agent process. If the rumoured international draft does get approved then there is added incentive to use any monetary advantage now.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
without the need for a specific license that previous Cubans had to get. Instead, he's being granted a general license. That doesn't have a material impact on his status beyond him being granted the right to sign a bit sooner.
 
Did not know that MLB walked back the need for a "specific license."  Just as point of clarification, Yoan has a general license so he could sign tomorrow if he so desired.
 
Interesting to note that if Moncada signs this year (have seen conflicting reports whether it's June 15 or July 2 and I can't find a quick answer), the Cubs and the Rangers are barred from signing him as penalty for overspending in the international FA market in prior years.  If Moncada does not sign this year, the Red Sox and the MFYs will be barred from signing him.
 
It makes waaay too much sense for the MFYs to make him an offer he can't refuse.  I have to think the total amount spent on him will be in Darvish territory and I wouldn't be surprised if his contract alone is more than Castillo got.
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
Did not know that MLB walked back the need for a "specific license."  Just as point of clarification, Yoan has a general license so he could sign tomorrow if he so desired.
 
Interesting to note that if Moncada signs this year (have seen conflicting reports whether it's June 15 or July 2 and I can't find a quick answer), the Cubs and the Rangers are barred from signing him as penalty for overspending in the international FA market in prior years.  If Moncada does not sign this year, the Red Sox and the MFYs will be barred from signing him.
 
It makes waaay too much sense for the MFYs to make him an offer he can't refuse.  I have to think the total amount spent on him will be in Darvish territory and I wouldn't be surprised if his contract alone is more than Castillo got.
That would cost the Yankees about 145 million, quite a risk. Even for them.
 

ItOnceWasMyLife

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Gotta feel that it's either the Dodgers or MFYs, as the need for those 2 is greater than the Sox.  Hopefully that's a good thing as the farm has produced the current and possibly the future 2nd basemen of the Sox with Pedey and Betts.  And neither one of them costs $80MM upfront.  The only down side will be if he turns into a Robinson Cano, of which the odds are long.  Of course he could end up at 3rd, but there's a block there as well, albeit not farm grown.   
 
Still, it's awful tempting to be able to add another grade A prospect to an already good looking group. 
 
I'd put the odds at:
Dodgers: 50%
MFY: 45%
RDSX: 4%
Field: 1%
 

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I found this interesting, from Kiley McDaniel article in FanGraphs:
 
"Moncada, 19, likely spends 1-2 years in the minors before settling in the big leagues at either second base, third base or center field, with the offensive upside of Yasiel Puig. For those wondering where Moncada would land on a top 100 prospects list, he’d be somewhere from 5-12 for me, with comparable talent to guys like Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, but with far less proven as Moncada hasn’t played in a game for a long time."
 
The total cost of Moncada may actually give us a good idea how much a top 10 prospect is worth. I'd say Swihart and Owens, estimated top 20 prospects, are probably worth what? 15-25% less.
 
Which leads me to believe that neither will be dealt for Hamels or 1yr rental pitchers.
 

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If he has to spend 2 years in the minors he really is not blocked at 3B.  Chances are good Panda's body will take him off 3rd into the DH by then.  Plus I don't care if we had blue chip prospects at every position on the diamond, if he is truly the prospect he is touted to be you sign him and let everything work itself out, usually does.
 

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
Gotta feel that it's either the Dodgers or MFYs, as the need for those 2 is greater than the Sox.  Hopefully that's a good thing as the farm has produced the current and possibly the future 2nd basemen of the Sox with Pedey and Betts.  And neither one of them costs $80MM upfront.  The only down side will be if he turns into a Robinson Cano, of which the odds are long.  Of course he could end up at 3rd, but there's a block there as well, albeit not farm grown.   
 
Still, it's awful tempting to be able to add another grade A prospect to an already good looking group. 
 
I'd put the odds at:
Dodgers: 50%
MFY: 45%
RDSX: 4%
Field: 1%
 
There's no such thing as a team that doesn't have a need for a remarkably talented 19 year old and it's not like he's going to play in the majors this year.
 

ItOnceWasMyLife

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Rasputin said:
 
There's no such thing as a team that doesn't have a need for a remarkably talented 19 year old and it's not like he's going to play in the majors this year.
True of course, but I didn't say the Sox had no need for him.  Just that LAD/MFY had a greater need and will therefore go higher on the $$$'s.
 

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Yankees have the need and the money. There is no way he doesn't join them unless he secretly loves the Sox or knows Castillo. So a slim chance
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
I'd put the odds at:
Dodgers: 50%
MFY: 45%
RDSX: 4%
Field: 1%
 
I'd probably put the Sox, Yankees and Dodgers about even with the field at something like 10 or 15%. One thing Cherington has always liked to do is to collect talent. He also isn't shy about being aggressive for players he likes, even on the international market. If the Sox are actually interested in this kid, they stand as good a chance of landing him as anyone else.
 

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I'm on board with the need being a non factor. However I mostly came to say that when I see this thread title pop up on the new posts I automatically think it's a tblts thread about expensive timepieces.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Why are the Giants not in on this guy?
 
If the signing of Yasmany Tomas taught us anything, it's that the Giants (or any other team) might very well be. Teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers popping up in the rumors isn't surprising because they are, historically, big spenders and this kid is going to get paid. That said, if he signs elsewhere, it shouldn't shock anyone.
 

soxhop411

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  • In a full article (ESPN Insider required/recommended), Olney writes that there is also a belief among execs that the Dodgers‘ financial restraint to this point in the offseason could make them more aggressive on Moncada, with some believing that they will ultimately land him. Olney adds that many execs feel the Red Sox‘ current surplus ofDustin PedroiaXander BogaertsPablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts will limit their interest and limit how far the team is willing to stretch. As Olney puts it, Boston simply isn’t as desperate for Moncada as some of their competition.
Via MLBTR
 

ItOnceWasMyLife

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
Except this isn't bidding on an established ML FA to plug a hole. If the Yankees are in heavy, it's not because they need a SS. Ditto the Dodgers. This is a prospect. If either of those teams sign him and they want to fill SS before next season, they will still be in on Ian Desmond next offseason. I assure you no team is approaching this guy as a major piece of their 2015 or 2016 team. This is much more similar to the MLB draft, where you take the BPA and worry about roster jams or filling needs at a much later date.
Who has the best farm of the three? 
 

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Papelbon said:
 
Except this isn't bidding on an established ML FA to plug a hole. If the Yankees are in heavy, it's not because they need a SS. Ditto the Dodgers. This is a prospect. If either of those teams sign him and they want to fill SS before next season, they will still be in on Ian Desmond next offseason. I assure you no team is approaching this guy as a major piece of their 2015 or 2016 team. This is much more similar to the MLB draft, where you take the BPA and worry about roster jams or filling needs at a much later date.
The Yankees don't need "a shortstop". The Yankees need to fill the Derek Jeter hole of True Yankeedom. They aren't going to do that with Ian Desmond (or Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon) and it's getting harder and harder to use their financial advantages to develop the next guy.

He's gonna be a Yankee. I've never felt so sure of a FA prediction.
 

soxhop411

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though I honestly believe that Olney is full of it... " will limit their interest and limit how far the team is willing to stretch. As Olney puts it, Boston simply isn’t as desperate for Moncada as some of their competition." seems like the complete opposite of what we have heard
 

ArgentinaSOXfan

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Same was being said before we signed Rusney, that we had tons of outfielders, no need to get him, etc.
Bottomline, if Moncada is special as advertised, you must get him.
We have the luxury of not having to rush him to the majors and worst case scenario, he is a very good trade chip in the future. Plus Im not conviced about Bogaerts, but of course I wont write him off being so young while putting decent numbers. He, also, could be a chip to trade if we get Moncada and he develops nicely. 
Having too many good players cant never be a negative aspect, and if they are young and relatively cheap, even more. 
 

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PrometheusWakefield said:
The Yankees don't need "a shortstop". The Yankees need to fill the Derek Jeter hole of True Yankeedom. They aren't going to do that with Ian Desmond (or Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon) and it's getting harder and harder to use their financial advantages to develop the next guy.

He's gonna be a Yankee. I've never felt so sure of a FA prediction.
 
This is my feeling as well.  All my instincts are telling me that the Yankees are going hard on this one, and probably willing to go much further than whatever more financially prudent cost-benefit calculation will circumscribe Ben Cherington's interest.  The Dodgers might end up trumping them in the end but I'd be legitimately shocked if the Red Sox win the bidding. 
 

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ArgentinaSOXfan said:
Same was being said before we signed Rusney, that we had tons of outfielders, no need to get him, etc.
Bottomline, if Moncada is special as advertised, you must get him.
We have the luxury of not having to rush him to the majors and worst case scenario, he is a very good trade chip in the future. Plus Im not conviced about Bogaerts, but of course I wont write him off being so young while putting decent numbers. He, also, could be a chip to trade if we get Moncada and he develops nicely. 
Having too many good players cant never be a negative aspect, and if they are young and relatively cheap, even more. 
 
Do you really want to pay what he is asking for him to be a trade chip? Also, the potential that he could become a "trade chip" for the Red Sox as you say, is probably not lost on Moncada and his team. Why sign with a team that is looking at him that way?
 

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charlieoscar said:
If they were to sign him maybe Bogaerts becomes a trade chip. Which of the two has the greater upside?
According to Kiley McDaniel over at Fangraphs he's likely to move to second, third, or center. Doesn't seem to be a reason to trade anyone if we sign him. The Red Sox will be able to find a place for him.
 

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This strikes me as a risky and not cost effective (possibly close to or above $100 million) Dice-K type of fiasco.  Moncado might command close to or more than proven but still in his prime Pablo Sandoval just signed for with the Sox.  Not being tied to international free agent spending cap penalties, draft slot signing limitations or draft pick compensation, what he will receive will probably dwarf what a less speculative college amateur prospect like Kris Bryant received at the top of his draft (comparable to where Moncado reputedly would be picked if draft eligible).  In this scenario, perhaps Cherington will encourage the Sox to keep their name in Moncado's rumor mill hoping to emulate Bill Belichick when he just recently baited Pete Carroll into calling a more advantageously defensible play call.  The Sox, if fortunate, might get a reasonably comparable talent for the slotted amount with their top of the first round 2015 amateur draft pick.  Unless they are absolutely sure that Moncada is a once in a generation can't miss talent (almost nothing can be that certain), this amount of money is probably better spent toward extending Porcello or getting an otherwise proven pitching ace who is not too old and not signed for too long.
 

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Wingack said:
 
Do you really want to pay what he is asking for him to be a trade chip? Also, the potential that he could become a "trade chip" for the Red Sox as you say, is probably not lost on Moncada and his team. Why sign with a team that is looking at him that way?
Because every team is looking at him that way.

They're looking at him as an asset. Maybe he end up playing for them and maybe he doesn't just like every other prospect ever.
 

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The Boomer said:
This strikes me as a risky and not cost effective (possibly close to or above $100 million) Dice-K type of fiasco.  Moncado might command close to or more than proven but still in his prime Pablo Sandoval just signed for with the Sox.  Not being tied to international free agent spending cap penalties, draft slot signing limitations or draft pick compensation, what he will receive will probably dwarf what a less speculative college amateur prospect like Kris Bryant received at the top of his draft (comparable to where Moncado reputedly would be picked if draft eligible).  In this scenario, perhaps Cherington will encourage the Sox to keep their name in Moncado's rumor mill hoping to emulate Bill Belichick when he just recently baited Pete Carroll into calling a more advantageously defensible play call.  The Sox, if fortunate, might get a reasonably comparable talent for the slotted amount with their top of the first round 2015 amateur draft pick.  Unless they are absolutely sure that Moncada is a once in a generation can't miss talent (almost nothing can be that certain), this amount of money is probably better spent toward extending Porcello or getting an otherwise proven pitching ace who is not too old and not signed for too long.
Where are you seeing that he isn't subject to the international signing limits?

And why is this any more of a risk than anything else?

There are relatively few ways left for the teams with the dollars to use them to their advantage and this is one of them.
 

sean1562

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charlieoscar said:
If they were to sign him maybe Bogaerts becomes a trade chip. Which of the two has the greater upside?
 
Jesus christ are we really already throwing Bogaerts overboard for the next shiny new prospect? Wasnt Bogaerts upside at the beginning of last season "ROY, perennial All Star, possible MVP candidate"? Now he is a talent less loser? Isnt Moncada gonna cost at least 70 million dollars? How is Bogaerts not a more valuable asset than that? 
 

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sean1562 said:
 
Jesus christ are we really already throwing Bogaerts overboard for the next shiny new prospect? Wasnt Bogaerts upside at the beginning of last season "ROY, perennial All Star, possible MVP candidate"? Now he is a talent less loser? Isnt Moncada gonna cost at least 70 million dollars? How is Bogaerts not a more valuable asset than that? 
 
He's very valuable.
 
This notion that someone gets labeled as a trading chip while someone else gets labeled as a potential future Red Sox is ridiculous. They are assets. All of them. Some of them are going to deliver their value on the field. Some of them are going to deliver their value in a trade. Some of them are going to not deliver any value.
 

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charlieoscar said:
 
But to really stir things up, I am still of the opinion that instead of giving Pedroia a long-term extension, they should have traded him. They could have gotten a lot in return and saved a few bucks for other use while opening up 2nd base for Betts (his normal position), which would in turn reduce the outfield overflow.
 
Hindsight man, hindsight.
 

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No kidding.  In July 2013, when Pedroia signed his extension, I'm betting Charlieoscar hadn't even heard about Mookie Betts.
 
I have no problem with the Sox pursuing Moncada.  They should.  But I've already indicated the dollar amount where I think the risks (opportunity cost as well as future performance) start to outweigh the potential reward.  I understand the desire to be creative in how the team uses its financial advantages, but saving a few bucks to lock up guys like X and Betts early will (hopefully) be on the To Do list as well.  Spending too much for Moncada will foreclose some of these other possibilities.  They drew a reasonable line with Lester; I think they'll do that here, too.
 

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Boagaerts is represented by Boras. He will not be locked up early and Boston should have him on the "gone after six" list as a precaution.
 

nighthob

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sean1562 said:
Jesus christ are we really already throwing Bogaerts overboard for the next shiny new prospect? Wasnt Bogaerts upside at the beginning of last season "ROY, perennial All Star, possible MVP candidate"? Now he is a talent less loser? Isnt Moncada gonna cost at least 70 million dollars? How is Bogaerts not a more valuable asset than that?
This is what we refer to as a false dichotomy. No one is even remotely suggesting that Boagaerts is a "talent less loser." Even the post you're responding to in no way suggests that Boagaerts is worthless as they're asking who has higher upside and by all evaluations if Moncada were in the '15 draft pool he'd be the first player taken.
 

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nighthob said:
Boagaerts is represented by Boras. He will not be locked up early and Boston should have him on the "gone after six" list as a precaution.
That may be but is Bogaerts potentially asking for a large contract in the future a reason to throw a large contract at a guy now?
 

nighthob

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You can throw large contracts at him daily for the next five years. They just aren't ever going to be signed. Resign yourself to the fact that there will be a major bidding war for the guy in a few years.
 

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nighthob said:
You can throw large contracts at him daily for the next five years. They just aren't ever going to be signed. Resign yourself to the fact that there will be a major bidding war for the guy in a few years.
I was talking about how it doesn't make sense to throw a large contract at Moncada now because Bogaerts may leave in the future. If there's a bidding war for Bogaerts in 6 years, that means you got him for productive years on the cheap. Where's the problem?
 

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Xander Bogaerts would not be the first Scott Boras client to sign an extension with his present team before hitting free agency.
 
Off the top of my head ... Jason Varitek, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gonzalez and Jered Weaver all signed before becoming free agents and all were Boras clients.
 

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PrometheusWakefield said:
The Yankees don't need "a shortstop". The Yankees need to fill the Derek Jeter hole of True Yankeedom. They aren't going to do that with Ian Desmond (or Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon) and it's getting harder and harder to use their financial advantages to develop the next guy.

He's gonna be a Yankee. I've never felt so sure of a FA prediction.
 
From a MFY perspective, the other great thing about Moncada is that I don't believe the signing bonus doesn't count against the luxury tax (that's my understanding, I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong). 
 
From a luxury tax POV, getting Moncada to the big leagues as soon as possible could help them immensely with their luxury tax issue, so the MFYs could get some savings down the road with respect to their initial investment in Moncada.
 
So I agree with you that MFYs will be primary suitors; note that the Dodgers could probably use this relief as well (although I believe they have other big bonus SSs in their system).
 

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We've gone over this a million times.  As Sackamano notes, not every Boras client rolls the dice, so people should stop stating this as some kind of immutably depressing fact. 
 
If X has a good year and the Sox like his play at SS, they could certainly approach him about an extension that locks him up and buys out a FA year or two.  It would need to be a healthy offer, one which would raise his AAV in the short term and put added pressure on any efforts to stay within the LT limit.  But it could make good sense for both sides while still allowing X to hit the FA market before he turns 30.  It's hard to keep such possibilities open, though, if they blow their wad on other options, like giving Moncada a $45M + $45M penalty deal.
 

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if the Red Sox project him to be a right fielder, I could see them going all in on Moncada. He would be ready when Ramirez replaces Ortiz at DH. Plus you would have an outfield of three guys who have plus speed and 15+ homer capability.
I just don't see why a team would waste Moncada's run tool defensively at 3rd or 2nd. If the Yankees go after Moncada it is probably as a replacement for Beltran.
I just don't see how you project a 5 tool player at 3rd or 2nd.
 

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I've been looking around trying to find more info or scouting reports on Moncada's skills or projection, and found this yesterday from a Bradford column:
 
He’s the soon-to-be 20-year-old shortstop who has been identified as one of the best recent prospects to come out of Cuba, with one talent evaluator telling WEEI.com his talent was “comfortably equivalent to the top of the first round” of the MLB Draft.
 

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timlinin8th said:
I was talking about how it doesn't make sense to throw a large contract at Moncada now because Bogaerts may leave in the future. If there's a bidding war for Bogaerts in 6 years, that means you got him for productive years on the cheap. Where's the problem?
MM was saying that Boston shouldn't be using their money to sign Moncada and instead using that money to lock up Bogaerts (and Betts). I was simply pointing out that they don't need to worry about Bogaerts' extension because he won't be signing one. If he hits as well as we expect, he's going to get A-Roddian money hitting the FA market as right handed hitter in his mid to late 20s.

EDIT: But I'm all for locking up Betts next winter as I think he's more amenable to the extension.
 

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Nighthob, you realize that you don't get extra points merely for being stubborn, right?  If Mike F'n Trout can be signed to an extension, Bogaerts can.  You state things with a certainty that is unsupportable at best.   (And please don't respond by noting that Trout isn't represented by Boras.  That would be correct but asinine.) 
 

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The reason to consider throwing all that money at Moncada is that none of it counts against the luxury tax threshold. So it's not quite true that this is money that could otherwise go to a player. It may well be a mistake to make a major offer to Moncada rather than using that money on another player - but that is not necessarily what is going on here. The Red Sox are limited (if they want to avoid exceeding the threshold in consecutive years) in their player salary budget, but they have plenty of money to spend in other ways.

Of course, the MFY and Dodgers have even more money.
 

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Eddie Jurak said:
The reason to consider throwing all that money at Moncada is that none of it counts against the luxury tax threshold. So it's not quite true that this is money that could otherwise go to a player. It may well be a mistake to make a major offer to Moncada rather than using that money on another player - but that is not necessarily what is going on here. The Red Sox are limited (if they want to avoid exceeding the threshold in consecutive years) in their player salary budget, but they have plenty of money to spend in other ways.
And, frankly, they're out of the next two international signing periods anyway (aside from striking gold on lower priced players), so this is (in all likelihood) their last shot at using the money this way.
 

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Minneapolis Millers said:
Nighthob, you realize that you don't get extra points merely for being stubborn, right?  If Mike F'n Trout can be signed to an extension, Bogaerts can.  You state things with a certainty that is unsupportable at best.   (And please don't respond by noting that Trout isn't represented by Boras.  That would be correct but asinine.) 
It's equally asinine to not think that having Boras as an agent has an effect on the likelihood of any given player signing an extension.  I mean, after Mike F'n Trout signed his extension, Boras went on a ramble about the price of tea futures which translated to: I wouldn't have had him sign it if he'd been my client.
 

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Eddie Jurak said:
The reason to consider throwing all that money at Moncada is that none of it counts against the luxury tax threshold. So it's not quite true that this is money that could otherwise go to a player. It may well be a mistake to make a major offer to Moncada rather than using that money on another player - but that is not necessarily what is going on here. The Red Sox are limited (if they want to avoid exceeding the threshold in consecutive years) in their player salary budget, but they have plenty of money to spend in other ways.

Of course, the MFY and Dodgers have even more money.
 
No, I don't think that's right.  Until we know the details of how he signs, we can't say it won't count against the luxury tax.  Of course, the penalty will not count, if that is what you mean.
 
My guess based on what has been being said is that it is going to take a major league deal with a roster guarantee to sign Moncada.  Since the bonus is going to the player, rather than a posting fee or whatever, it could end up counting against luxury tax.   Almost certainly if they give him part salary and part bonus the salary will end up counting.  
 
Either way, the math isn't as simple as "you pay $80 million now and you don't have to pay anything for the next 6 years and none of it counts against your salary budget."
 

Eddie Jurak

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smastroyin said:
 
No, I don't think that's right.  Until we know the details of how he signs, we can't say it won't count against the luxury tax.  Of course, the penalty will not count, if that is what you mean.
 
My guess based on what has been being said is that it is going to take a major league deal with a roster guarantee to sign Moncada.  Since the bonus is going to the player, rather than a posting fee or whatever, it could end up counting against luxury tax.   Almost certainly if they give him part salary and part bonus the salary will end up counting.  
 
Either way, the math isn't as simple as "you pay $80 million now and you don't have to pay anything for the next 6 years and none of it counts against your salary budget."
I thought teams weren't allowed to offer major league deals to minor league FAs.
 

Cumberland Blues

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They are not allowed to give major league contracts to players who count against the international bonus pool.
 
from attachment 46 to the CBA:
 
 
G. Contract Requirements
1. All players who are covered by a Club’s Signing Bonus
Pool must sign a Minor League Uniform Player Contract.
 
 
 
 
 
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