Xander Bogaerts: Silver Slugger and Herald of Galactus

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

During last night's radio broadcast, Joe Castiglione and Lou Merloni had a bit of a discussion regarding Xander and how he's deserving of the Silver Slugger award among AL shortstops. Here's his league rankings in the key offensive categories at the position as of this morning:
 
BA - 1st (.318)
H - 1st (166)
2B - 1st (29)
3B - tied for 6th with 3 (leader has 5)
HR - tied for 16th with 5 (leader has 17)
RBI - 1st (71)
R - 2nd (65 to Alcides Escobar's 71)
OBP - 1st (.348)
SLG - 2nd (.414 to Asdrubal Cabrera's .420)
OPS - 1st (.762)
 
He'll be 23 in October, folks.

 

[smastroyin]

I think he's deserving, but also think the low HR total might be what some focus on.  It's only once (Rick Burlseson in 1981) gone to a guy who hit less than 10 HR.
 
I also think (maybe irrationally) that he is piecing back together his game and will bring the power over the next few years.  Kind of like the way on Lester's K rate went down for a couple years while he figured how to better throw strikes, and then he put it all together.  But again, I'm not saying I'm rational here.  It's just, I do expect that by age 26 he'll be a destroyer of worlds.

 

[jon abbey]

Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor were both called up late enough that they won't qualify for the batting title, but both are outhitting Bogaerts currently. 
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true/minpa/300
 
Those three are pretty clearly the cream of the crop already for AL SSs, which is kind of crazy given how young they are (Correa doesn't turn 21 for two more weeks!). They will be jockeying for position on All-Star teams for many years to come, assuming they stay healthy of course.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor were both called up late enough that they won't qualify for the batting title, but both are outhitting Bogaerts currently. 
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true/minpa/300
 
Those three are pretty clearly the cream of the crop already for AL SSs, which is kind of crazy given how young they are (Correa doesn't turn 21 for two more weeks!). They will be jockeying for position on All-Star teams for many years to come, assuming they stay healthy of course.

The new Nomah, Jetes, and ARod?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think he's deserving, but also think the low HR total might be what some focus on.  It's only once (Rick Burlseson in 1981) gone to a guy who hit less than 10 HR.
 
I also think (maybe irrationally) that he is piecing back together his game and will bring the power over the next few years.  Kind of like the way on Lester's K rate went down for a couple years while he figured how to better throw strikes, and then he put it all together.  But again, I'm not saying I'm rational here.  It's just, I do expect that by age 26 he'll be a destroyer of worlds.

 
Yeah, it seemed like this year he had a pair of related goals at the plate--to make more consistent contact and to use the whole field. And he has had huge success on both fronts--bringing his K rate down from 23.2% to 14.3%, and changing his pull/center/oppo profile from 47/34/19 to 32/35/33--but at a significant cost in terms of hitting the ball hard in the air (FB% down from 41.3% to 26.4%, HR/FB down from an already fringey 7.1% to a truly anemic 4.3%).
 
So the next step is to reintegrate some power into his game without losing the progress on the other fronts. And we may be starting to see evidence of that--his ISO and pull rate have started to rise again lately after bottoming out in July, but his K rate so far has not risen with them. Of course we're talking about impossibly small samples, but maybe he feels confident enough in his new contact/oppo game that he and Chili have decided to open up the throttle a bit in the final month, as something to build on for next year.

 

[phenweigh]

I also think (maybe irrationally) that he is piecing back together his game and will bring the power over the next few years.  Kind of like the way on Lester's K rate went down for a couple years while he figured how to better throw strikes, and then he put it all together.  But again, I'm not saying I'm rational here.  It's just, I do expect that by age 26 he'll be a destroyer of worlds.

 
Totally agree.  The excuse I use for my irrational optimism about Xander is some of his home runs have been absolute bombs.  The power is unquestionably there.  The question is will he be able to harness that power.  Considering how much growth we've seen from him both defensively and at the plate, I'm having a hard time imagining (other than health) what would hold him back.  Xander Bogaerts - Destroyer of Worlds ... I like it.

 

[jscola85]

With 29 doubles, the power potential is definitely still there, but you can see he's consciously just focusing on hitting line drives right now and taking what the pitcher gives him.  Hopefully he can go into the offseason, build off that confidence, and start selectively finding pitches that he can drive with more authority while not becoming pull-happy like he did in the middle of 2014.
 
EDIT - For what it's worth, Jeter's first few years in the majors (22/23), he had a similar profile, focusing on contact and doubles power (~.300 average, .420 SLG though with much more walks).  At age 24, his power finally broke out, slugging almost .450-.500 from then until his early 30's.
 
Not saying X is Jeter (perish the thought!) but there definitely could be something to him reaching a level of competence on mastering what pitches he can drive and so forth.  X's current approach definitely has a Jeter flavor to it with his ability to pop fliners over the 2B's head with consistency.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

This is super anecdotal (please forgive), but it feels like Xander's been especially hindered, HR-wise, by the monster. I can vividly remember several high liners that would almost certainly be gone elsewhere, but ended up as doubles. Is there some way to measure that? It feels like his pull side is more of a line-drive swing.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think he's deserving, but also think the low HR total might be what some focus on.  It's only once (Rick Burlseson in 1981) gone to a guy who hit less than 10 HR.

 
I wonder if there isn't a subconscious effect going on there with the word "Slugger" in the name of the award.
 
At any rate, this would be a great year for X to receive this prize ... since, barring injury, Correa is likely to be a lock from here on out until he outgrows shortstop.
 
I'm as interested to see whether X is one of the three AL finalists for the Gold Glove

 

[In my lifetime]

It seems to me he made a concerted effort to increase his contact rate while sacrificing some length in his swing. He seems to be waiting longer and as a result he is sending a much higher % of balls to Right field. 
His K rate is down from 23% to 14% , while his isolated power is down from .123 to .096 (and he is hitting HRs at about half the rate of last year despite a batting average of almost 80 points higher.
 
That adjustment along with the tremendous improvement at SS suggests that X is very willing to learn and work at his craft.  I would expect the power to come as he gets stronger and confidence in pitch recognition grows.  Far too early to tell, but he has the makings of a perennial all-star.
 
I don't think I have ever been so impressed with the collection of RS young players since Rice/Lynn/Evans in 1975.  As bad as the 1st half of the year was, it will be exciting to watch X/Betts/JBJ/Swihart/ERod in the years to come. Thankfully, none were traded away last off-season.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Beyond the change in approach covered above, I can think of at least three or four doubles X has hit to the opposite field in road parks that were a few feet from going out. When he bulks up a little some of those doubles are going to go out.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Here is a fangraphs article supporting what you guys have already stated.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-xander-bogaerts-overhaul/
 

 
From the better approach can come the power. From the power can come the walks. That’s what people envisioned, and though that guy doesn’t exist yet, he’s closer than he ever was a year ago. Bogaerts has made a dramatic adjustment, learning to drive the ball the other way. Now that he’s done that, he can start to hunt for the right pitches to pull. That’ll be 2016’s project.

 

[AbbyNoho]

Good lord, are fangraphs comments usually that bad? According to that Bogaerts is a bust who only gets talked about because fangraphs are all Red Sox homers and Didi Gregorious is a lock to have a better career. I remember reading insightful things there in the past, but that article was barely a step above youtube comments.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Good lord, are fangraphs comments usually that bad? According to that Bogaerts is a bust who only gets talked about because fangraphs are all Red Sox homers and Didi Gregorious is a lock to have a better career. I remember reading insightful things there in the past, but that article was barely a step above youtube comments.

I never read the comments

 

[TSC]

I never read the comments

That's generally good life advice.

 

[DJnVa]

With a relatively hot finish to the season, X can get to 200 hits, which would be pretty nice to see. He needs 25 hits over the last 18 games, which is just slightly ahead of his season-long pace.
 
I know 200 is an arbitrary number, but no one has reached it for the Sox since 2011 when AGon and Ellsbury did it.

 

[SaladParmesan]

With a relatively hot finish to the season, X also has an outside shot at a batting title. Miguel Cabrera was hitting .361 earlier this month, but an 0 for 19 skid (ongoing) has him down to .335, .014 ahead of Bogaerts. Cabrera also has missed some time this year with a calf injury and currently is 39 PA short of qualification level.  With Detroit at 11 games under .500, he may continue to get rest. The Gwynn rule would currently put him at .311. Playing every day would get Xander to around 608 AB, and if he continues hitting around .375, his September average, he'll finish with 199 hits and a .327 average. Something to watch for, at least, these last few weeks.

 

[bigyazbread]

With a relatively hot finish to the season, X also has an outside shot at a batting title. Miguel Cabrera was hitting .361 earlier this month, but an 0 for 19 skid (ongoing) has him down to .335, .014 ahead of Bogaerts. Cabrera also has missed some time this year with a calf injury and currently is 39 PA short of qualification level.  With Detroit at 11 games under .500, he may continue to get rest. The Gwynn rule would currently put him at .311.

 
The Tigers are well aware of the batting title implications.  If anything, the fact that they are out of the race may focus them even more on individual goals at this point.  Unless Cabrera goes down with an injury, I believe that he will get at least the 502 PA needed so as not to invoke the Gwynn Rule and will still win the title.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

wow.  power starting to rear it's head lately- which was obvious it would show up sooner or later.  I'm starting to hope the Sox try to get him inked to a 10 year deal- of course his agent is Boras, but not all of The Devil's clients test free agency

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Here's an article iayork wrote on Bogaerts on the .com today.
 

 
 
Last year, at the age of 21, Xander Bogaerts put up a .240/.297/.362 line in 144 major-league games. While not completely awful, those numbers are far from good, especially considering the high hopes Sox fans had for Bogaerts. This year, though, Bogaerts’ numbers have been much more in line with initial expectations. His .323/.353/.426 line puts him behind only Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Crawford and Jung-Ho Kang among major-league shortstops, and he is in second place for batting average among all qualified players in the American League.

 
There's also this one I wrote back in June on his approach.

 
 
Through 55 games this year, Xander Bogaerts is hitting .296/.340/.402 with a BABIP of .338. Last year at this time, he was hitting .293/.384/.444 through 60 games with a BABIP of .381. After his hot start, and move a to 3B, he ended the year hitting .240/.297/.362 with a BABIP of .296. The question everyone is asking is, “will he have a big drop off like he had last year?”.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

What was exciting about last night's shot is that he had to lean a little across the plate to reach it; he didn't look like he was in a position to put his best swing on the ball. Yet he hit it to the back of the Monster seats. There's some legit power there.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Some people may not care for the comparison, but Bogaerts' age 22 season is quite similar to Jeter's. Their paths to the majors were quite similar, but NYY opted to give Jeter a full season at AAA at 21 after he reached the level as a 20 year old, same as Xander. Both were top 5 prospects prior to their age 21 season (Bogaerts #2, Jeter #4); Bogaerts showed a lot more power in the minors, whereas Jeter was more of a speedy spray-hitter.

 

[Van Everyman]

The other night after JBJ hit his latest bomb Bogaerts stood by his locker and had nothing but great things to say about JBJ and his power, before pausing and smiling to say, "I mean, all I do is hit singles, so..."

It's going to be really interesting to see what Dombrowski does with Chili Davis in the offseason because even tho the first half was admittedly a dumpster fire almost across the board, over the course of the season he really has done an exceptional job with the kids – whether it's the fixing JBJ foot tap jig, keeping Mookie consistent for most of the year or encouraging X to let go of the power temporarily while he straightened out his swing.

 

[smastroyin]

I think as noted earlier, everyone put Xander's focus on plate coverage and pitch recognition, and that with the stacked lineup they thought they had, he didn't need to hit HR, and he bought into that.  He has seemed a little frustrated with the lack of power lately but he's not really developing bad habits chasing it, which is great.  I think once he is ready to turn on his pull power again he is going to start jacking the ball.
 
And of course, if he has Jeter's career but shorter we would all be ecstatic.  

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I hope Xander continues to concentrate on just hitting the ball - and let the XBH's come naturally.
 
On the other hand, watching him swag at the plate after the GS was a real joy to behold. He's got a reputation (per the papers) of being a real likable, low-key guy but I loved that "fuck-you" flip after the blast.
 
If the Rays throw at him today or tomorrow, I hope Sandy and Pablo bull rush the entire Ray's team and end up sitting on top of Moore until he screams "mercy".

 

[joe dokes]

 
If the Rays throw at him today or tomorrow, I hope Sandy and Pablo bull rush the entire Ray's team and end up sitting on top of Moore until he screams "mercy".

 
Sandy and Pablo charging from the dugout is likely to violate the pace-of-play rules.  It's like being "attacked" by a glacier.  Everyone except Bartolo Colon should be able to get out of the way. Or call Uber.
 
 
Enjoy the veal. Tip your server.

 

[soxhop411]

Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes  6m6 minutes ago
Source: Red Sox once could have had Giancarlo Stanton, but it would have cost Xander Bogaerts http://es.pn/1FLvQZd
 
Nice bit of What-if... Still think they made the right decision given how our current OF is playing

 

[snowmanny]

As much as I'm looking forward to the next four years with Bogaerts I'm also wondering why the Red Sox wouldn't have made that deal.

 

[E5 Yaz]

As much as I'm looking forward to the next four years with Bogaerts I'm also wondering why the Red Sox wouldn't have made that deal.

 
As Snod correctly points out in response to this same story when soxhop posted it in the game thread, without knowing what else would have been in the package for Stanton, there's no way to make such a call.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

As much as I'm looking forward to the next four years with Bogaerts I'm also wondering why the Red Sox wouldn't have made that deal.

 
Wild guess: it was during the 2013-14 offseason (Edes doesn't say exactly when), when Stanton was coming off two straight injury-shortened years and Xander was coming off a pretty exciting postseason.
 
Funny part is, I bet the Sox would have jumped at that deal a year ago. Now, not so much again. Ballplayers are volatile stocks--especially young ones.

 

[snowmanny]

 
As Snod correctly points out in response to this same story when soxhop posted it in the game thread, without knowing what else would have been in the package for Stanton, there's no way to make such a call.

Right. I assume there's way more to the story.