Would you trade Jerebko for Jeff Green straight up?

Koufax

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Again, Danny seems to have dispatched a player and received in return (via Tayshaun Prince) a better player and a first round draft pick.  Amirite?
 

Blacken

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Jerebko is not "a better player", though I would agree that the package of Jerebko and a first-round pick is superior. Green's a better wing defender and an adequate post defender against guys his own size, but he's a worse shooter. I can compensate for shooting more easily than I can defense.
 

radsoxfan

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Blacken said:
Jerebko is not "a better player", though I would agree that the package of Jerebko and a first-round pick is superior. Green's a better wing defender and an adequate post defender against guys his own size, but he's a worse shooter. I can compensate for shooting more easily than I can defense.
 
I'm not even sure Green is "better".  He looks better, and certainly has the ability go off for the random 30+ point game unlike Jerebko.  But just looking at some basic "advanced" stats, Jerebko over the past 3 years has a higher TS%, Reb%, PER, WS/48, etc….
 
They certainly do not have identical skill sets, and Green has the ability to guard a different group of athletes than Jerebko. But generally speaking, aside from the random "wow, Jef Green could be really good!!" type plays, I'm not sure he is particularly better at NBA basketball. 
 
To look at the whole package, in a vacuum I'd certainly prefer the 27 year old 6'10" role player with a 58% True Shooting% at (likely) reasonable money to the 28 year old 6'9" non rebounding 52% True Shooting% athlete that might get 10M per season.  
 
I'm also not sure defense is automatically harder to find than shooting, plus Green doesn't give consistent defensive effort anyway. 
 

Koufax

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The effort part is hard to measure right now.  Jerebko seems super-motivated to show his stuff.  Will he be like that 20 games from now?  I have no idea.  I don't know what his energy level was like earlier in his career, but it is very high right now, providing a stark contrast to the usual Jeff Green (not the super-Jeff who would show up twice a month).
 
Jeff probably has more talent.  Is he a better player in real life?  I don't think so.
 

Cellar-Door

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radsoxfan said:
 
I'm not even sure Green is "better".  He looks better, and certainly has the ability go off for the random 30+ point game unlike Jerebko.  But just looking at some basic "advanced" stats, Jerebko over the past 3 years has a higher TS%, Reb%, PER, WS/48, etc….
 
They certainly do not have identical skill sets, and Green has the ability to guard a different group of athletes than Jerebko. But generally speaking, aside from the random "wow, Jef Green could be really good!!" type plays, I'm not sure he is particularly better at NBA basketball. 
 
To look at the whole package, in a vacuum I'd certainly prefer the 27 year old 6'10" role player with a 58% True Shooting% at (likely) reasonable money to the 28 year old 6'9" non rebounding 52% True Shooting% athlete that might get 10M per season.  
 
I'm also not sure defense is automatically harder to find than shooting, plus Green doesn't give consistent defensive effort anyway. 
It is tough to really compare a guy who is not only not playing major minutes, but isn't playing a good chunk of games with an every game starter. I'm a big Jerebko fan, but if he played 30 minutes a night every night against starters as a primary option his numbers would tank. He fits this team better in a lot of ways if they can re-sign him cheap, but to most teams in the league Green has much more value.
 

radsoxfan

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Cellar-Door said:
It is tough to really compare a guy who is not only not playing major minutes, but isn't playing a good chunk of games with an every game starter. I'm a big Jerebko fan, but if he played 30 minutes a night every night against starters as a primary option his numbers would tank. He fits this team better in a lot of ways if they can re-sign him cheap, but to most teams in the league Green has much more value.
No doubt Jerebko would be miscast as a primary option... I probably wasn't clear, but I wasn't talking about being a primary option. It seems pretty clear to me Green has failed in that role anyway, so I think if teams are giving him extra value based on his chances of being a primary option, that won't end well.

Green is a nice example of someone who has had many different roles, from bench player to complementary starter, to primary option. And his numbers are pretty consistently mediocre. Any team signing him as a #1 or #2 option will be sorely disappointed.

As such, I'd look at how they would both be as role players on the right team. And I think there's a decent argument that Jerebko is as good or better as a role player than Green.

If NBA teams value Green much more highly, that's great. I hope Jerebko will be significantly cheaper.
 

Devizier

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Green is a better "class" of player than Jerebko, but I wouldn't say he's a particularly good member of that class.
 
He's been the same guy since he entered the league. People were reading too much into what really is random variation in his performance and missing the forest for the trees. The guy has a whole host of NBA average (plus or minus) skills and no exceptional ones. That's a useful player but it's damn hard to build around someone like that.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Koufax said:
The effort part is hard to measure right now.  Jerebko seems super-motivated to show his stuff.  Will he be like that 20 games from now?  I have no idea.  I don't know what his energy level was like earlier in his career, but it is very high right now, providing a stark contrast to the usual Jeff Green (not the super-Jeff who would show up twice a month).
 
Jeff probably has more talent.  Is he a better player in real life?  I don't think so.
This is a great point.  No doubt Jerebko is smart enough to realize what this trade can do for him - revive his stagnating career right before free agency - and he is playing accordingly.  His success is also partly a gimmick - he's essentially plying a stretch 5 who can take advantage of being guarded by bigger, slower centers.  But if he is overexposed as a starter, there are starting centers who would just chew him up and spit him out in the post.  Also, it's not clear what the long term fit is for Jerebko in Boston.  His skill set seems to overlap with Olynyk.  
 
That said, I am enjoying the JJ era and I hope he continues to play well for the duration. 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This discussion won't be complete until we find out the new contracts for both.  If Jerebko keeps playing like he has, I suspect the pay gap is going to decrease substantially (I assume Green is opting out).
 
From what I am reading about them, the two players on similar contracts - although they have different skillsets - wouldn't have a terribly different impact on a basketball team, correct?
 

jimv

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Eddie Jurak said:
His skill set seems to overlap with Olynyk.  
 
I think that's the more important question - Who does Danny opt for going forward? Is the decision entirely contract driven?
 

radsoxfan

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jimv said:
 
I think that's the more important question - Who does Danny opt for going forward? Is the decision entirely contract driven?
 
Well Olynyk should have the "value" edge going forward.  After this year he is on a 2 year, 5M contract with a 4M qualifying offer the season after that.  No idea what Jerebko will get (I'd probably be OK with a 3 year deal at his current salary, which would be 3 years, 13.5M). Of course, Olynyk's contract edge could also be used as added value to another team in a trade.
 
They certainly overlap somewhat, though I wouldn't say they are identical.  Olynyk is a 7 footer with significantly less athleticism.  They are both stretch  bigs, but Jerebko is more of a PF than Olynyk.  Defensively, Olynyk is worse, and definitely shouldn't be guarding on the perimeter.  
 
I don't think signing Jerebko automatically means trading Olynyk, since they can both be part of a successful rotation, but they probably shouldn't be playing together very much.  If Olynyk can be included in a trade for a more athletic big (or to move up in the draft to select one), it should definitely be considered even more strongly if Jerebko is coming back. 
 

Eddie Jurak

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radsoxfan said:
 
Well Olynyk should have the "value" edge going forward.  After this year he is on a 2 year, 5M contract with a 4M qualifying offer the season after that.  No idea what Jerebko will get (I'd probably be OK with a 3 year deal at his current salary, which would be 3 years, 13.5M). Of course, Olynyk's contract edge could also be used as added value to another team in a trade.
 
They certainly overlap somewhat, though I wouldn't say they are identical.  Olynyk is a 7 footer with significantly less athleticism.  They are both stretch  bigs, but Jerebko is more of a PF than Olynyk.  Defensively, Olynyk is worse, and definitely shouldn't be guarding on the perimeter.  
 
I don't think signing Jerebko automatically means trading Olynyk, since they can both be part of a successful rotation, but they probably shouldn't be playing together very much.  If Olynyk can be included in a trade for a more athletic big (or to move up in the draft to select one), it should definitely be considered even more strongly if Jerebko is coming back. 
That all seems reasonable.  In a podcast with Simmons, Zach Lowe said that from what he has heard, C's brass is very high on Olynyk - they think he has real upside.  I don't see it - to me he's got the potential to be a good reserve at best.  It may affect their interest in Jerebko.
 

radsoxfan

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Eddie Jurak said:
That all seems reasonable.  In a podcast with Simmons, Zach Lowe said that from what he has heard, C's brass is very high on Olynyk - they think he has real upside.  I don't see it - to me he's got the potential to be a good reserve at best.  It may affect their interest in Jerebko.
 
Generally speaking, I like Olynyk, and think he can be a solid contributor, and possibly a starter on a contending team.  But he needs to be paired with some front court athleticism and All Star level guards if that's going to happen.
 
I didn't hear the Lowe podcast, so I'm not sure what he meant by "very high".  If the above description is very high, then I agree.  If the Celtics think he is going to be a top 2 or 3 player on a contending team, then I'm not sure I see that upside.  He is extremely skilled for a 7 footer, but  don't envision that kind of huge leap going forward. I'd love to be wrong on that one though. 
 

luckiestman

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Olynyk has to have the highest variance of any player on the Celtics when watching. Some games, you're shocked the dude is in the NBA. Then he will have a stretch where he is dominant. He needs to get stronger but that is probably the easiest thing for an athlete to do.
 

The X Man Cometh

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luckiestman said:
Olynyk has to have the highest variance of any player on the Celtics when watching. Some games, you're shocked the dude is in the NBA. Then he will have a stretch where he is dominant. He needs to get stronger but that is probably the easiest thing for an athlete to do.
The problem with Olynyk is he needs to touch the ball often on offense. If he's not assertive on that end of the floor, he can only hurt the team. Because other than chipping in on the boards he's not giving you anything else of note.
 
To me the key is this - is Olynyk's refusal to shoulder more of an offensive workload is because he is passing up opportunities, or is it because his release is too deliberate? I'm not sure which it is, but the former is much more fixable than the latter.
 

The X Man Cometh

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As for the topic of Jerebko - I think there needs to be a conclusion about his defensive value first. Can someone wiser than me chime in on that aspect given the small sample size in a Celtics uniform?