As a big Pedroia fan, I sort of hate asking the question, but I think it's a fair one. The Red Sox have made it clear that long-term deals will be reserved for special situations, so it's fair to ask if the Pedroia situation warrants such a deal based on what we know now. We have seen Pedroia's offensive pop wane, and it's hard to argue he's been an elite offensive player the last two years. Still, the defense is still superlative, and there is hope that as his thumb improves, he will become an .800+ OPS guy again.
Further Background/Considerations -->
The Deal: 8 years (2014-2021), $110MM ($13.75MM AAV)
Some Quant. Considerations
- .787 OPS in '13 and .723 thus far in '14 (about 30% of the way through the season). OPS from prior years: .823 ('07), .869 ('08), .819 ('09), .860 ('10), .861 ('11), .797 ('12)
- Home runs are down of late as well. HR/AB %s were in the 3-4% range from '10 to '12 vs. 1% in '13 and '14
- Pedroia continues to double at similar rates
- '13 was another strong year for Pedroa defensively per UZR (and presumably other defensive metrics beyond my comprehension)
Some Qualitative Considerations
- Pedroia is clearly the kind of player and leader you want the next wave of Sox prospects to emulate, including his willingness to take what is seen by some as a hometown discount
- The business side matters too, and it would have been a PR disaster to let a guy like Pedroia go to free agency or even endure a difficult negotiation
- Pedroia has demonstrated an ability to produce in an environment not every player can handle (see Crawford, Carl)
- He may regain his pop as the thumb heals. He could also just be on a cold stretch, meaning his 800+ OPS days aren't over
So what say you, Soshers? Having seen a season plus of non-elite offense from DP, do you do the deal again? If not, how do you handle the negotiation given DP's importance to the club?
Further Background/Considerations -->
The Deal: 8 years (2014-2021), $110MM ($13.75MM AAV)
Some Quant. Considerations
- .787 OPS in '13 and .723 thus far in '14 (about 30% of the way through the season). OPS from prior years: .823 ('07), .869 ('08), .819 ('09), .860 ('10), .861 ('11), .797 ('12)
- Home runs are down of late as well. HR/AB %s were in the 3-4% range from '10 to '12 vs. 1% in '13 and '14
- Pedroia continues to double at similar rates
- '13 was another strong year for Pedroa defensively per UZR (and presumably other defensive metrics beyond my comprehension)
Some Qualitative Considerations
- Pedroia is clearly the kind of player and leader you want the next wave of Sox prospects to emulate, including his willingness to take what is seen by some as a hometown discount
- The business side matters too, and it would have been a PR disaster to let a guy like Pedroia go to free agency or even endure a difficult negotiation
- Pedroia has demonstrated an ability to produce in an environment not every player can handle (see Crawford, Carl)
- He may regain his pop as the thumb heals. He could also just be on a cold stretch, meaning his 800+ OPS days aren't over
So what say you, Soshers? Having seen a season plus of non-elite offense from DP, do you do the deal again? If not, how do you handle the negotiation given DP's importance to the club?