Would you do the Pedroia deal again if you're Cherington?

[twibnotes]

As a big Pedroia fan, I sort of hate asking the question, but I think it's a fair one.  The Red Sox have made it clear that long-term deals will be reserved for special situations, so it's fair to ask if the Pedroia situation warrants such a deal based on what we know now.  We have seen Pedroia's offensive pop wane, and it's hard to argue he's been an elite offensive player the last two years.  Still, the defense is still superlative, and there is hope that as his thumb improves, he will become an .800+ OPS guy again.
 
Further Background/Considerations -->
 
The Deal: 8 years (2014-2021), $110MM ($13.75MM AAV)
 
Some Quant. Considerations
- .787 OPS in '13 and .723 thus far in '14 (about 30% of the way through the season).  OPS from prior years: .823 ('07), .869 ('08), .819 ('09), .860 ('10), .861 ('11), .797 ('12)
- Home runs are down of late as well.  HR/AB %s were in the 3-4% range from '10 to '12 vs. 1% in '13 and '14
- Pedroia continues to double at similar rates
- '13 was another strong year for Pedroa defensively per UZR (and presumably other defensive metrics beyond my comprehension)
 
Some Qualitative Considerations
- Pedroia is clearly the kind of player and leader you want the next wave of Sox prospects to emulate, including his willingness to take what is seen by some as a hometown discount
- The business side matters too, and it would have been a PR disaster to let a guy like Pedroia go to free agency or even endure a difficult negotiation
- Pedroia has demonstrated an ability to produce in an environment not every player can handle (see Crawford, Carl)
- He may regain his pop as the thumb heals.  He could also just be on a cold stretch, meaning his 800+ OPS days aren't over
 
So what say you, Soshers?  Having seen a season plus of non-elite offense from DP, do you do the deal again?  If not, how do you handle the negotiation given DP's importance to the club?
 

 

[Curll]

Yes
 
/thread

 

[MakMan44]

Pedroia was 5th in the AL in wRC+ (115, tied with Zobrist), 3rd in wOBA, and 4th in OPS last season among 2nd baseman with at least 300 PAs. His numbers this year don't look great, though neither does most of the lineup's, but I'd take his 2013 numbers over the life of the deal in a heartbeat, especially if his defense stays amazing. 
 
So yeah, I'd still do the deal. 

 

[Rasputin]

Last year the AL second basemen combined for a .707 OPS so I am quite fine with my better than average offense with excellent defense guy signed for relative chump change.

 

[Stitch01]

Pretty much. Without hindsight, if you aren't doing the Pedroia deal you are basically never signing a 30 something free agent.

With hindsight, BR has him on pace to be a 5 WAR plus player this year. League average hitter with great defense at second base is pretty valuable and everything about his track record says to expect more than that, at least in the early years of his contract.

 

[JakeRae]

I posted a rundown in today's game thread of Pedroia's history of having offensive numbers similar to those he currently has at least this far into the season in every year of his career except last year. Odds are, his power was sapped last year due to injury, it simply hasn't shown up this year because of SSS issues, and in a month or two, he'll be the same player he's always been. If that doesn't happen, his batting average should still bounce a bit based on BABIP regression and he should be, more or less, the player he was a year ago. In either of those circumstances, this is a silly question. He's basically getting paid to be an average second baseman over the course of his contract. Even at his season-to-date levels of production, he is much better than that. Being .020-.030 points of batting average and .050 points of ISO off of career averages after 2 months is perfectly normal for a baseball player. If the power drop last season were not explainable by an already healed injury, there might be cause for concern, by this point, about his power. But, considering that he was still a 5 and a half win player last season without his power, even that wouldn't be cause to worry about signing him to one of the best contracts in all of baseball.

 

[Hoplite]

Yes. He's averaged 5+ WAR over the last six seasons and from all outside appearances seems like the heart of the team. I'm not going to regret a team friendly deal because he's had a slow start this year.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd take his 2013 numbers over the life of the deal in a heartbeat

 
Who wouldn't? But do you really think he's going to average a 115 wRC+ -- just slightly below his career mark -- from ages 30 through 37? I'd gladly settle for something in the 105-110 range over that span (in 2014 terms, something like .280/.350/.400).
 
And I think given that level of offense, the deal will be a good one as long as he can continue to play second base through most of it. That part worries me more than the offensive decline part by itself. He'd have to lose an awful lot of offensive value to not still be a viable player as long as he can play above-average D at second. When he can't, that's when the value cliff looms--hopefully not till the last year or two of the deal.

 

[mauidano]

No doubt.  Papi too.  End of discussion.

 

[Sprowl]

Yes, and Papi too.

Pedroia is the best glove wizard in the major leagues today. Only Iggy comes close (and he's on the DL).

 

[Apisith]

When he starts hitting for his usual average again, his OPS will climb fast. He's not striking out more than usual and his BB rate is still good; that's all that matters this early into the season. He has surgery in the offseason, the power will come eventually.

 

[WenZink]

This is just the first year of an 8 year deal, and given all the money in baseball, it may well be that by the end of the contract, the $13.75 AAV may well be close to the average salary of an MLB starting position player.  I do worry that his all-out, diving approach to defense means that he's always playing with injury and that it affects his offense, first, and then his defense.   But Pedroia could end up being fitted with a peg-leg and a hook on his right hand and still be an asset to a team.... especially the Pirates.

 

[threecy]

I think folks are forgetting that he's playing with a wrist injury this year (he left the team for tests back in mid April).  I suspect that, like his thumb injury last year, etc., has kept his power numbers down.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

This thread seems pretty panicky. I'm guessing if you look up what his performance was worth salary wise he has passed what his average annual salary is every single season. I don't see that trend changing anytime soon even with a relatively slow start at the plate.

 

[Toe Nash]

It hasn't been mentioned enough that his intangibles are off the charts, he never takes a play off (sometimes to his detriment) and loves playing here. These things get overrated but I'm not sure they are in his case, especially when you have a bunch of young players you're trying to break in.
 
He's also on pace for around 3 fWAR and 4 bWAR in an off year, which would cost at least $15-20m on the free agent market. So...this thread, man.

 

[twibnotes]

I think folks are forgetting that he's playing with a wrist injury this year (he left the team for tests back in mid April).  I suspect that, like his thumb injury last year, etc., has kept his power numbers down.

The injury factor seems to be persistent the last 2 seasons. What are the odds DP can cut stay relatively heathy, and how will these injuries affect him as he ages through the life of the contract? Those head first slides aren't going away, unfortunately.

As a few posters have pointed out, given the relatively low price of the deal, the performance hurdle may not be too high, but eight years is a long time for a guy who plays with such intensity (Youkilis comes to mind)

Edit: I understand some of the criticisms of the thread, but it's not binary (sign DP or not). I think it's fair to ask, for instance, if the Sox might have considered shorter for higher AAV.

 

[DJnVa]

One little 10 game losing streak and the main board goes crazy.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Some Quant. Considerations
- .787 OPS in '13 and .723 thus far in '14 (about 30% of the way through the season).  OPS from prior years: .823 ('07), .869 ('08), .819 ('09), .860 ('10), .861 ('11), .797 ('12)
- Home runs are down of late as well.  HR/AB %s were in the 3-4% range from '10 to '12 vs. 1% in '13 and '14
- Pedroia continues to double at similar rates
- '13 was another strong year for Pedroa defensively per UZR (and presumably other defensive metrics beyond my comprehension)

 

 
You have to put it into context.  His career OPS+ is 116.  Last year it was 115.  In 2012 it was 114.  The slow start this year doesn't at all suggest he's suddenly lost the ability to hit.

 

[TheoShmeo]

The injury factor seems to be persistent the last 2 seasons. What are the odds DP can cut stay relatively heathy, and how will these injuries affect him as he ages through the life of the contract? Those head first slides aren't going away, unfortunately.

As a few posters have pointed out, given the relatively low price of the deal, the performance hurdle may not be too high, but eight years is a long time for a guy who plays with such intensity (Youkilis comes to mind)

Edit: I understand some of the criticisms of the thread, but it's not binary (sign DP or not). I think it's fair to ask, for instance, if the Sox might have considered shorter for higher AAV.

I think the answer to this question is an easy yes. 
 
That said, the fact that my opinion is thus does not mean I think that posts like "end of discussion" are in any way constructive.  Yes, some ideas and threads are so off the mark that such a response is deserved.  I've started a few of those.  But that we mostly agree on the conclusion shouldn't stop us from batting a topic around.  More to the point, I think the almost knew jerk "nothing to see here" type posts are a big part of why the main board is so stagnant and people don't start many threads.  Who needs to be shouted down?  In short, lighten up francises, and consider not immediately resorting to snark.  Rant over.
 
Also, I do think there are some areas of discussion or off shoots worth exploring.  One poster posited that last year was an exception re power and this year is SSS.  Really?  When does SSS end in this regard?  By game 80?  120?  Or maybe Pedey's injury has a lasting impact on his power?

 

[Stitch01]

Depends how much higher the AAV would have been.  Given what Pedroia's market value and the fact that a large part of the discount was likely to try and be a Red Sox for life, I'm not sure it would have been worth the trade off to go shorter/higher AAV in this case.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Who wouldn't? But do you really think he's going to average a 115 wRC+ -- just slightly below his career mark -- from ages 30 through 37? I'd gladly settle for something in the 105-110 range over that span (in 2014 terms, something like .280/.350/.400).
 

Sorry if it wasn't clear, I was mocking twib's notion that Pedroia's offense wasn't "elite" last year. I don't think he's going to be that good over the life of the deal. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
 
Also, I do think there are some areas of discussion or off shoots worth exploring.  One poster posited that last year was an exception re power and this year is SSS.  Really?  When does SSS end in this regard?  By game 80?  120?  Or maybe Pedey's injury has a lasting impact on his power?

Well, his wrist might still be bothering him and that would certainly have an impact on his power production. I think his 20 HR potential is probably gone but I'd expect something like 12-15 HRs in a fully healthy season. Whether that's going to happen is an entirely different question. 

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

It's also early, and DP's power always benefits from warmer weather.
 
The overall lack of team offense makes Pedroia's slow start more glaring, but the offensive environment in baseball has changed a lot since his debut. We're not in Kansas anymore; he's still an asset on both sides of the ball.

 

[smastroyin]

The answer to this question depends entirely on whether the team understands the idea of sunk costs.  I suspect they do, but maybe they don't.  
 
My answer is that yes, I would absolutely do this deal again, but going forward I would evaluate Dustin not based on the fact that his contract extends, but on his performance.  If you think the team will continue to play him even if he becomes a terrible baseball player then sure, you can regret this deal.  But, in the meantime, you are getting such a bargain that you shouldn't have any trouble sucking up the cost of cutting him if you have to.  Even this year if he keeps up his poor to this point (for him) hitting, he will likely be worth more than his contract.  The worst part of his game so far this year is his baserunning, which should be correctable (although I'm not liking a lot of what Farrell does).
 
Also, the point about small sample.  It really depends on context.  We absolutely still have too small of a sample to say "this is Dustin Pedroia's new expected performance level."  But if all you are saying is "Dustin Pedroia has not been as good as we expect this year" then yes, we clearly have enough of a sample to say that.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I do it again absolutely. Can you imagine it not being done, he gets to free agency and ends up in another uniform?

 

[glennhoffmania]

Jason Kipnis just signed an extension with 2+ years of service time that will pay him $28m for the 2 years of FA he forfeited as part of the deal.  Signing Pedroia to a contract with an AAV of less than $14m was, and still would be, a no brainer.  I'll be surprised if he doesn't earn the whole $110m half way through the contract.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I'll be surprised if he doesn't earn the whole $110m half way through the contract.

 
What a scary thought, when you consider that Victorino earned most of the value of his contract last year.

 

[Toe Nash]

I think the answer to this question is an easy yes. 
 
That said, the fact that my opinion is thus does not mean I think that posts like "end of discussion" are in any way constructive.  Yes, some ideas and threads are so off the mark that such a response is deserved.  I've started a few of those.  But that we mostly agree on the conclusion shouldn't stop us from batting a topic around.  More to the point, I think the almost knew jerk "nothing to see here" type posts are a big part of why the main board is so stagnant and people don't start many threads.  Who needs to be shouted down?  In short, lighten up francises, and consider not immediately resorting to snark.  Rant over.
 
Also, I do think there are some areas of discussion or off shoots worth exploring.  One poster posited that last year was an exception re power and this year is SSS.  Really?  When does SSS end in this regard?  By game 80?  120?  Or maybe Pedey's injury has a lasting impact on his power?

I would suggest that if the intent of the thread was to elicit such potentially interesting discussion, that the title and first post should have been phrased / written differently. "Revisiting the Pedroia Contract" may have been a better title. We're just responding to what we're reading. It's such a great deal that no, it's not really "fair to ask" whether they'd do it again.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
What a scary thought, when you consider that Victorino earned most of the value of his contract last year.

 
Victorino had a great year and was worth a lot more than his salary, but it's not really a fair comparison when you consider the length of both deals.  If Pedroia has 3 seasons in a row worth 5.6 wins then he'll earn the whole contract in 3 years, but I wasn't going to assume he would do that even though it's entirely possible that he will.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
Victorino had a great year and was worth a lot more than his salary, but it's not really a fair comparison when you consider the length of both deals.  If Pedroia has 3 seasons in a row worth 5.6 wins then he'll earn the whole contract in 3 years, but I wasn't going to assume he would do that even though it's entirely possible that he will.

My post was really more in the spirit of a pre-04 Sox fan.

 

[ivanvamp]

I do it again absolutely. Can you imagine it not being done, he gets to free agency and ends up in another uniform?

 
Replacing Cano for the MFY's?????

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Replacing Cano for the MFY's?????

Then they get Lester and we're the modern day Kansas City Royals (farm to the MFY's). 

 

[ALiveH]

how many years of the deal was DP a RFA?  If it's 0, then no-brainer $13.75 AAV is low.  If it's 1 or more, then need to redo the numbers in the OP to reflect this.

 

[rembrat]

The only downside to this deal is that if ever there comes a time where Pedroia needs to be moved off 2B, there is no other position for him to play, so you're kinda stuck trotting him out there or severely limiting his playing time.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The only downside to this deal is that if ever there comes a time where Pedroia needs to be moved off 2B, there is no other position for him to play, so you're kinda stuck trotting him out there or severely limiting his playing time.

 
DH?  CF?  LF?  3B?  He's athletic enough to transition somewhere else if he had to, unless you think his height is a detriment to him at another position?

 

[rembrat]

 
DH?  CF?  LF?  3B?  He's athletic enough to transition somewhere else if he had to, unless you think his height is a detriment to him at another position?

 
It's really hard to even talk about this without knowing how the roster is constructed in 5 to 7 years but lets assume the Sox need offense at LF and DH because that's what those positions have historically called for, that immediately eliminates them as a possibility since it's safe to assume Pedroia's offense will only get worse as time goes on. He was moved off SS because his arm reportedly wouldn't play at that position and 3B usually requires an equally if not stronger arm. So I don't see it. CF? Eh. Does he have the range to really play a CF? I don't think so. And yes, I do think being shorter puts him at a disadvantage in the OF. I don't buy for a second he is really 5'8. 
 
Remember, in my original post, I alluding to him having to be moved off 2B because he was bad at defense. So that means, in my scenario he's lost a step, reaction time, arm strength etc. 

 

[lambolt]

Find these kinds of discussions confusing. It's like people forget that all these numbers are based on averages, projections, risk, reward etc. I get that the club has to look forward at all times, but think about all the millions of dollars of value clubs get from these players in their early years. I suspect its many millions of dollars credit in terms of wins.So whenever a contract going forward starts to look a bit dodgy I think its always worth factoring in what the club gained from the previous contract(s)

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The answer to this question depends entirely on whether the team understands the idea of sunk costs.  I suspect they do, but maybe they don't.

I don't doubt that the FO understands this concept. But just because they understand it, that doesn't mean the fanbase and the media will understand it--and the FO understands this, too. I don't think it's a safe assumption that they will be willing to bench or release Pedroia until very, very late in the contract. If he declines more rapidly than we hope, and is a mediocre player by 2018 or so, then we're going to be looking at a few years with a mediocre starting 2B, sunk cost or no sunk cost.

 

 
DH?  CF?  LF?  3B?  He's athletic enough to transition somewhere else if he had to, unless you think his height is a detriment to him at another position?

 
1. By the time his 2B defense has declined to the point where you consider moving him elsewhere, his offense will probably have declined too. And while his bat might carry him at any of those slots right now (assuming his true offensive level is still 2013 or even 2012, not what he's doing currently), by the time he's 34 or 35 that will probably be true only at CF and maybe 3B.
 
2. By his mid-30s, I doubt he'll have the arm to be a plus 3B (if he has it now), or the mobility to be a plus outfielder.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Find these kinds of discussions confusing. It's like people forget that all these numbers are based on averages, projections, risk, reward etc. I get that the club has to look forward at all times, but think about all the millions of dollars of value clubs get from these players in their early years. I suspect its many millions of dollars credit in terms of wins.So whenever a contract going forward starts to look a bit dodgy I think its always worth factoring in what the club gained from the previous contract(s)

I doubt that clubs think that way. You've heard of a sunk cost? This is the flip side of that coin.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
It's really hard to even talk about this without knowing how the roster is constructed in 5 to 7 years but lets assume the Sox need offense at LF and DH because that's what those positions have historically called for, that immediately eliminates them as a possibility since it's safe to assume Pedroia's offense will only get worse as time goes on. He was moved off SS because his arm reportedly wouldn't play at that position and 3B usually requires an equally if not stronger arm. So I don't see it. CF? Eh. Does he have the range to really play a CF? I don't think so. And yes, I do think being shorter puts him at a disadvantage in the OF. I don't buy for a second he is really 5'8. 
 
Remember, in my original post, I alluding to him having to be moved off 2B because he was bad at defense. So that means, in my scenario he's lost a step, reaction time, arm strength etc. 

Not really. Any time a SS has to go significantly to his right on a grounder, or back and to his right, he has a longer throw to first than any grounder a third baseman can get to. The play the third baseman makes going across the bag into foul territory and having to throw back across his body is comparable but more rare. 3B is one position I thought Pedroia could move to when you posted your where else could he move post. He would look pretty funny there (little guy), granted. 

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Do I do that deal again? Really? In a cocaine heartbeat. Perennial all-star and borderline MVP, for $13-14 per?  Do you realize that's the current QO?  And the QO keeps going up.
 
That means all he has to be is in the top 100 ballplayers in the majors to earn his keep. Or 150 in two years. Or 200 in 3-4 years.
 
Let me put it this way. Do you think that Pedroia isn't better that the average 3rd to 4th best ballplayer on the average ML team?  Honestly?
 
Edit: Better yet, please assemble for me the list of 120 players you think are better than Pedroia.  Yes, I'll hold.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Do I do that deal again? Really? In a cocaine heartbeat. Perennial all-star and borderline MVP, for $13-14 per?  Do you realize that's the current QO?  And the QO keeps going up.
 
That means all he has to be is in the top 100 ballplayers in the majors to earn his keep. Or 150 in two years. Or 200 in 3-4 years.
 
Let me put it this way. Do you think that Pedroia isn't better that the average 3rd to 4th best ballplayer on the average ML team?  Honestly?
 
Edit: Better yet, please assemble for me the list of 120 players you think are better than Pedroia.  Yes, I'll hold.
 
Second Edit: Or let's think about it this way. Do you know how many players there are on ML active rosters.  Let me help - it's 25 times 30. That's 750.  So for Pedey not to be in the top 120, he'd need to be below the 16th-percentile of all major leaguers.  Do you realize that means that for every 100 ML'ers chosen at random, 16 of them would have to be better than Pedroia for your question to be a question.
 
Sorry to be so worked up - but if you can offer a cogent retort it might settle me down.
 

 

[twibnotes]

I would suggest that if the intent of the thread was to elicit such potentially interesting discussion, that the title and first post should have been phrased / written differently. "Revisiting the Pedroia Contract" may have been a better title. We're just responding to what we're reading. It's such a great deal that no, it's not really "fair to ask" whether they'd do it again.

That is indeed a better name for the thread. I mentioned the issue in a game thread and it got a response. One poster encouraged teeing up a thread so I pulled some numbers and tried to spur on a discussion.

 

[JakeRae]

The contrast between Pedroia's stat line before and after tonight's game is a great example of why this conversation is incredibly premature. Going into the game, Pedroia was batting .268/.348/.380. Leaving it, he is now hitting .278/.353/.392. Now, that latter line still isn't as good as we would all like it to be, but the point is that one good game, and his game tonight wasn't amazing, just very good, bridges a third of the gap between his offensive performance YTD and what he did last year. 

 

[Reverend]

The contrast between Pedroia's stat line before and after tonight's game is a great example of why this conversation is incredibly premature. Going into the game, Pedroia was batting .268/.348/.380. Leaving it, he is now hitting .278/.353/.392. Now, that latter line still isn't as good as we would all like it to be, but the point is that one good game, and his game tonight wasn't amazing, just very good, bridges a third of the gap between his offensive performance YTD and what he did last year. 

Now tell us how magnets work.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The only downside to this deal is that if ever there comes a time where Pedroia needs to be moved off 2B, there is no other position for him to play, so you're kinda stuck trotting him out there or severely limiting his playing time.

Well there is no organization depth at 1B or DH. Kind of surprised this hasn't been mentioned as of yet. He plays such a hard and exciting game he could easily see him being worth this contract over the next few seasons. Just for what he brings to the team as well. Now is Pedroia "tall enough for 1B?" Probably not but I mean they can still make it work if needed. Give him platform cleates or something. No way in hell he is 5'8 though. Probably around 5'5-5'6 but if he plays at this level for the majority of his contract you have to look at him as a possible future HOF.

Either way it was a great deal last year and looked even better compared to Cano's deal.

 

[lambolt]

I doubt that clubs think that way. You've heard of a sunk cost? This is the flip side of that coin.

I'm not implying or suggesting that clubs do or should think that way, my point is there tends to be a gnashing of teeth whenever a player with a big contract starts to "underperform" that contract, without much consideration to the overperforming that got them the contract. Pedroia no doubt "gave" many millions of dollars of value away at the start of his career, so I've never really had a problem if he reclaims some of that with his contracts going forward. I totally understand that's now it works in real life, but then the whole original question is kind of pointless because whether or not you give Pedroia the deal he has now was decided based purely on what had happened to that point. of course a crystal ball would let you think twice, but there's not much point discussing that, likewise, it's not much  of a discussion point to "revisit" his contract in terms of his current performance since it's trivial to evaluate. An interesting point would be, let's say you split out this years part of his deal, would you then give him the rest, knowing what you know now

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think we really need to draw a sharp and clear line between two different ways of questioning the deal.
 
I don't think anybody is seriously questioning whether Pedroia will earn the money over the course of the deal. Really, for him to just earn the money, and no more, is almost the worst-case scenario, barring catastrophic injury early on. If you assume that the average value of a win will be $6M over the course of the deal--and that seems conservative--then he only has to accumulate about 16 wins' worth of value from 2015-21 for the Sox to break even. As long as he can play second base, and stay on the field for 130-140 games a year, he'll have no trouble hitting that mark, and he should pass it well before the deal is over--quite likely by 2018.
 
So yes, of course he is (knock wood) going to earn the money. The valid question is more about whether the length of the deal has the potential to make the Sox a worse team over the last few years of it, if they feel obligated by a combination of financial commitments and fan sentiment to start a player who is no longer an above-average second baseman, but really has no other position. I think that's a legitimate worry, but not a serious enough one to make the deal anything less than a very good one overall.

 

[threecy]

...start a player who is no longer an above-average second baseman, but really has no other position...

The Red Sox have an ace in the hole with left field, as his height, speed, and arm wouldn't be a terribly big factor 81 games a year, provided he wasn't able to play 2B effectively anymore.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Not sure what Pedroia earns on the open market.  He was about 2 1/2 years away from free agency and they gave him an additional 88 million for extending 5 years which are for his age 33-37 seasons.   Teams are shying away such commitments for these years  He also has significant H-A splits which diminishes his value in some other parks.  He is of course an elite defender and the intangibles are significant, but how much do teams pay for these?.
 
Just as important as all that is his style of player is such that one wonders how well he ages north of 30. It seems he has been injured every year since 2010, some of which kept him out of games, others which he gamely played through but which affected his production.   Unlike a Cano who does not hustle much but stays healthy, Pedroia plays almost recklessly and it has cost him the last few years.
 
As was pointed out earlier, Pedroia does tend to struggle at this time of year and kick starts it in June, so lets see what that brings.  In any event, I hardly think the deal ever approaches being an albatross, and if you are not going to give someone like Pedroia a bit of an overpay, if thats what it comes down too, then shame on you.  So yeah, I think Ben still makes the deal.