Ronaldo against out back line is going to be brutal to watch.
Jozy and Dempsey are going to fun against theirs.
Jozy and Dempsey are going to fun against theirs.
World Cup Draw
- Thread starter Jeff Van GULLY
- Start date
I'll have a post up soon (an hour or so) with shirts for Group A as part of the 32 Nations project I'm working on.
The U.S.'s path to advancement goes over the top of one of Ronaldo's metatarsals. Otherwise we are in deep trouble.
Beat Ghana and Portugal in the amazon.
And hope Germany is already through so we can get a result in the 3rd match.
And hope Germany is already through so we can get a result in the 3rd match.
Infield Infidel said:
And as much as this sucks, I'd take our draw over Australia's: Spain, Netherlands, Chile. The only reason why that group isn't a stone-cold lock for Group of Death is because Australia is weak.
Vinho Tinto said:
I think, in order - the group shakes out to be Germany then Portugal. The US has a chance though. The opponents don't worry me as much as the travel does for them.
These game threads are going to be a ton of fun yet again.
SoxFanInPdx said:
This doesn't make sense to me. The US team probably travels better than any other country in the World Cup. Its about the opponents.
I do like playing Germany last though.
American squads always seem to be at their best when expectations are lowered. Should be a hell of a test of what JK has built thus far.
Unless Portugal gets a result v. Germany. Have to hope for a Germany win there IMHO. If Germany needs a result v. US, the US is f****d.
Zomp said:
I do like playing Germany last though.
Zomp said:
I do like playing Germany last though.
BigSoxFan said:
At first glance, I'd guess that if you replaced us with the pot 3 team in each other group, the chances would be something like...
Group A: Pretty good; everyone's going to lose to Brazil, Croatia's pretty mediocre as UEFA teams go, and Cameroon is a bunch of never-will-bes.
Group B: Virtually impossible. Spain is way better than we are, the Netherlands is like an infinitely better version of us, and Chile is quietly a really good team. This might have been a worse draw than the one we actually got.
Group C: Pretty good. Colombia would be the only team I'd be concerned about, and even still, we've historically matched up well with teams that rely more on technical ability than on physicality (don't know if that holds as much today, but still). We're likely better than Greece, and CIV has a couple superstars and not much else.
Group D: Not great. We'd probably just fall short in this one. England could be had this time around, but Uruguay and Italy would be tough (albeit not impossible) to get by.
Group E: Pretty good. France would be tough but not impossible to deal with. We could beat SUI and ECU on a good day.
Group F: Pretty good. Nigeria and Bosnia are beatable. Argentina's going to demolish everyone (before going on to lose in the quarters, inevitably).
Group H: Decent. I have to believe we'd lose to Belgium and beat Algeria, so it would probably come down to what happened against Russia.
So we got a pretty rough draw.
JVG is killing it in this thread
We might not make it out but we'll at least see what the USMNT is made of.
Will Khedira be back by the World Cup?
We might not make it out but we'll at least see what the USMNT is made of.
Will Khedira be back by the World Cup?
As bad as the draw and travel is going to be, the schedule within the group is the best possible scenario. Beat Ghana and play Portugal coming of a loss to Germany in the Amazon. I'll take that scenario.
Zomp said:
You do make a point there. With a decent amount of players that play in MLS and the national team playing in CONCACAF, but 9,000 miles in 10 days seems insane to me.
Agree with this. IMHO, Germany needs to beat up on the rest of the field in order for the US to advance. A final game draw vs. Germany would be an outstanding result for US, and may help the team advance.Dan to Theo to Ben said:
Who's the Bulgaria '94 of '14? Surprising semifinal and then doing squat for the next 20 years.
Jeff Van GULLY said:
I'm pretty new to this and a casual fan at best. I'm assuming the green circle is the US base of operations and the red circles are where we are playing the games. Why would the US pick a base before they know where they are playing in such a large country and is there anyway to change their base to move closer to where they play two games?
We basically have to beat Ghana in the first game to have a chance. If we can do that, there are a number of reasonable paths to qualification (including some where we could lose the other two games, like if Ghana beats Portugal and Germany beats everyone).
Ranking the groups in order of difficult to weak sauce:
1. G - slightly death-ier than B because Australia...mate
2. B - jv group of death. Spain is getting slightly older though (at least Xavi and Puyol), but by virtue of performance in past competition, any group with Spain and Holland is ouchie.
3. D - tough call to put D ahead of A, but two power sides from Jurope plus a very tough Uruguay team playing closer to home, make it PURA [mala] VIDA for Costa Rica.
4. A - Brazil and Croatia SHOULD go through, but Mexico does have talent. Cameroon doesn't look great on paper, but I'm not that familiar with them.
5. H - Belgium is sneaky good, Korea usually brings a solid squad with some top class experience, Soviets have...a large population?, and Algeria (I got nothin').
6. C - Really hard to determine if C is easier or harder than H. ColOmbia is a weaker top seed, but Greece is often a tough out, Ivory Coast has some world class players, and Japan also can be a tricky opponent.
35353. E - Reeeeeeaaaaally soft group. The Neutral Republic of Wannabe Germaustriafrankitaly is by far the weakest top seed. Honduras should be happy to be there. Ecuador is a middle CONMEBOL team and France has French players and a penchant for surrendering. And eating too much cheese.
35353+1. F - Argentina given an absolute blessing here. Gives them 3 games to sort out their defense, always their achilles, and determine effective attacking combos. Iran is a joke and I can't wait to mock them mercilessly, Bosnia has only been a countries since the 1990s, and Nigeria is not good, but might be the 2nd best team in the group.
What do others think?
1. G - slightly death-ier than B because Australia...mate
2. B - jv group of death. Spain is getting slightly older though (at least Xavi and Puyol), but by virtue of performance in past competition, any group with Spain and Holland is ouchie.
3. D - tough call to put D ahead of A, but two power sides from Jurope plus a very tough Uruguay team playing closer to home, make it PURA [mala] VIDA for Costa Rica.
4. A - Brazil and Croatia SHOULD go through, but Mexico does have talent. Cameroon doesn't look great on paper, but I'm not that familiar with them.
5. H - Belgium is sneaky good, Korea usually brings a solid squad with some top class experience, Soviets have...a large population?, and Algeria (I got nothin').
6. C - Really hard to determine if C is easier or harder than H. ColOmbia is a weaker top seed, but Greece is often a tough out, Ivory Coast has some world class players, and Japan also can be a tricky opponent.
35353. E - Reeeeeeaaaaally soft group. The Neutral Republic of Wannabe Germaustriafrankitaly is by far the weakest top seed. Honduras should be happy to be there. Ecuador is a middle CONMEBOL team and France has French players and a penchant for surrendering. And eating too much cheese.
35353+1. F - Argentina given an absolute blessing here. Gives them 3 games to sort out their defense, always their achilles, and determine effective attacking combos. Iran is a joke and I can't wait to mock them mercilessly, Bosnia has only been a countries since the 1990s, and Nigeria is not good, but might be the 2nd best team in the group.
What do others think?
I think it serves everyone well if they don't get too high or too low. Every World Cup is littered with upsets. Plus, who knows what happens with injuries from now till June.
I hate the travel and the group. But, if you'd told me the group members before telling me the rest, I would have said that having something extraordinary for the Portugal match like playing it in Manaus would be good. Hopefully, that levels the playing field a bit.
I think Klinsmann must move the base, if that's still possible. The USA is playing 3 games at the equator in June and July. Training 15 degrees of latitude away makes no sense. It's like training in New Brunswick to play games in Jacksonville.
I think Klinsmann must move the base, if that's still possible. The USA is playing 3 games at the equator in June and July. Training 15 degrees of latitude away makes no sense. It's like training in New Brunswick to play games in Jacksonville.
I'm pissed that France seems to have been handed a free path to the knock-out rounds. Also fuck Brazil's crap draw too...like they needed that.
There's a more than decent chance that England go winless.
Horrible draw for the US, but I can see them advancing. I'm curious to see how much of the Ghana issue has been about players versus style. If we can beat them, I feel ok about advancing. Portugal seems vulnerable beyond Ronaldo, but his form has been so impressive over the last couple of years; scary.
As a man of Belgian descent, I'm super pleased with their draw, but I hate the idea of watching them and the US play in the round of 16.
I'm very excited about watching this tournament, but basically half of the groups appear to be shit to watch. We'll see.
There's a more than decent chance that England go winless.
Horrible draw for the US, but I can see them advancing. I'm curious to see how much of the Ghana issue has been about players versus style. If we can beat them, I feel ok about advancing. Portugal seems vulnerable beyond Ronaldo, but his form has been so impressive over the last couple of years; scary.
As a man of Belgian descent, I'm super pleased with their draw, but I hate the idea of watching them and the US play in the round of 16.
I'm very excited about watching this tournament, but basically half of the groups appear to be shit to watch. We'll see.
BigSoxFan said:
C, E, F, and H would look manageable if you were to swap the U.S. with the team from our pot that's in the group.
Fuck that shit. I'll take advancing with an easy draw over valiantly going home with a tough one every day of the week and twice on Sundays.DrewDawg said:
The majority of the groups had no more than one long trip. We literally got the worst possible draw from a travel point of view.yeahlunchbox said:
I'd agree that they should look at changing up the home base now that the draw is known.
It's about two completely different games. In 2010, we carried the play for large chunks of the match but were more wasteful with our chances. We also appeared to tire as the match went into extra time, which may be partly attributable to how hard we had to work to advance (thanks in part to a couple of blown calls). I'd be perfectly happy to get something approximating a re-run of that match, particularly if Portugal lose to Germany in their opener.Dummy Hoy said:
Zomp said:
Was it the content you disliked or his delivery? I'm assuming the delivery (he's not, um, telegenic... to say the least).
I thought what he said was actually pretty interesting, at least for a very casual fan like myself. While most are declaring doom and gloom, his numbers gave the USA almost as good a chance of going through as Portugal (39% vs 40%, respectively). That's not far below the average chance he gave the USA of advancing before the draw, which was 41%. Draws varied between something like 17-73% (I don't recall the exact numbers).
He basically said that Portugal looked shaky a few times during qualifying and that, while they have two superstars, they aren't a very deep squad.
I thought it was a nice counterpoint to the "OMG, we R FUCKED!" cries, but again I'm a casual fan at best.
Mr. Wednesday said:
We're venturing into memory territory here, so I'll openly admit I may be extremely wrong, but my memory of the Ghana match is very different from yours. I feel like we were forced to play surprisingly deep, seeing far too little of the ball versus my expectations, creating a bit especially when things got more desperate, but hardly ever really carrying play. I'd be interested in whether I'm way off or not for sure.
Soxy Brown said:
I think we really would be fucked if this World Cup were being staged in Europe. Euro teams don't have nearly as good a record in South America, far from their home countries and more importantly, their home climates. I'm really glad that we aren't playing Ghana in Manaus, as I think that venue will provide an edge for us against European teams. Most of the USMNT is accustomed to flying across an ocean and playing in sweltering Central American locales. Our equatorial set of venues is tough for us, but it's going to be tougher for Germany and Portugal.
Group G is going to be tough as hell, but we definitely have a fighting chance. The good Euro sides that aren't truly elite like Portugal can always be had in places like South America....(or South Korea). Thankfully we weren't drawn into Group B -- that would have been truly dispiriting.
My dream scenario is that the US beats Ghana and finds a way to tie Portugal. Then, during warm-ups before the Germany match, Jurgen has a quiet word with the German coach and reminds him how much they hate Portugal and Ronaldo in particular. The two teams then play a cynical game of keep away leading to a 0-0 draw.
It could happen?
It could happen?
I think the travel issue is really overblown. They have 6 days in between matches. Their bodies will adjust.
Delivery. Though I will admit I do cringe when I see percentages on advancing in a game where so many variables can take shape between now and next summer.
Soxy Brown said:
Delivery. Though I will admit I do cringe when I see percentages on advancing in a game where so many variables can take shape between now and next summer.
Mr. Wednesday said:
How about valiantly advancing?
Germany goes 3-0, it all comes down to getting a draw against Portugal (well, and the without saying win against Ghana). They'll be coming off a tough match against Germany, and if we beat Ghana and draw Portugal we play the Germans when they likely don't need a result. That doesn't get us a win, but if GD comes into it, it could help.
Zomp said:
I'm just remembering that February match in Honduras where we were spent due to the humidity. Not that Portugal or Germany are going to have it any easier.
Zomp said:
They have 6 days between the first and second match. They only have three days between the second and third match.
Welp. I was pretty sure we were going to be G.O.D. mostly because as you see with us and AUS, we are the best team in out pot by a decent amount so wherever we go we make a tough group and most of the real dogs are in our pot.
Travel looks brutal, but I think Ghana and Portugal are beatable. Would have liked the Germany match to be the one in Manaus as I think that is our only real chance for a win. As is, we need to jump on Ghana early, get at least a point out of Portugal and hope Germany stomps both so they play us to a bore draw after locking up first.
Travel looks brutal, but I think Ghana and Portugal are beatable. Would have liked the Germany match to be the one in Manaus as I think that is our only real chance for a win. As is, we need to jump on Ghana early, get at least a point out of Portugal and hope Germany stomps both so they play us to a bore draw after locking up first.
If the US could move their training center for the opening round and yet somehow keep Sao Paulo for the knockout if they were to advance, I think they should do it. I finally found FIFA's training centre handbook, which lists the 83 qualified training centers and there are not many good options up north for the US.
Here's some more info:
Natal
Manaus
So roughly 85 degrees in June in Manaus.
Recife
Other training ground options
Belem is between Manaus, Natal and Recife. Almost right in the middle of all three. Roughly 850 miles to each stadium.
Here's the training ground there:
Or they can move to a place closer to Natal and Recife and limit themselves to one longer trip to Manaus.
Two training grounds qualify for that, here's the first:
Or here:
Not sure if the US would want to move or pony up the money for two different training grounds but there are some viable options.
Here's some more info:
Natal
Manaus
So roughly 85 degrees in June in Manaus.
Recife
Other training ground options
Belem is between Manaus, Natal and Recife. Almost right in the middle of all three. Roughly 850 miles to each stadium.
Here's the training ground there:
Or they can move to a place closer to Natal and Recife and limit themselves to one longer trip to Manaus.
Two training grounds qualify for that, here's the first:
Or here:
Not sure if the US would want to move or pony up the money for two different training grounds but there are some viable options.
Travel is being overblown a bit, it isn't significantly harder than the MLS travel schedule, MLS tries to only do 2 away games in a row, but the travel times are often longer than they will be in Brazil.
Even the longest distance is nowhere near a coast v coast matchup in MLS, it is basically the same distance as LA to Columbus.
Even the longest distance is nowhere near a coast v coast matchup in MLS, it is basically the same distance as LA to Columbus.
Game schedule: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/thegoalkeeper/Complete-2014-World-Cup-game-schedule-fixture-list.html
USA:
Monday, June 16: G3. Ghana vs. G4. United States at Estadio das Dunas, Natal (6:00 p.m.)
Sunday, June 22: G4. United States vs. G2. Portugal at Arena Amazônia, Manaus (3:00 p.m.)
Thursday, June 26: G4. United States vs. G1. Germany at Arena Pernambuco, Recife (12:00 p.m.)
USA:
Monday, June 16: G3. Ghana vs. G4. United States at Estadio das Dunas, Natal (6:00 p.m.)
Sunday, June 22: G4. United States vs. G2. Portugal at Arena Amazônia, Manaus (3:00 p.m.)
Thursday, June 26: G4. United States vs. G1. Germany at Arena Pernambuco, Recife (12:00 p.m.)
IIRC from 2010, they can shift the times for some of the games for the viewing audience. For instance, if two European countries are playing in the late match and say Brazil and Mexico are playing in the early match, they can switch them.
mid 80s, 85% humidity, and the English national team (Rooney, Fat Frank, Terry,) that could be hillarious.DrewDawg said:
Jeff Van GULLY said:If the US could move their training center for the opening round and yet somehow keep Sao Paulo for the knockout if they were to advance, I think they should do it. I finally found FIFA's training centre handbook, which lists the 83 qualified training centers and there are not many good options up north for the US.
Here's some more info:
Natal
Manaus
So roughly 85 degrees in June in Manaus.
Recife
Other training ground options
Belem is between Manaus, Natal and Recife. Almost right in the middle of all three. Roughly 850 miles to each stadium.
Here's the training ground there:
Or they can move to a place closer to Natal and Recife and limit themselves to one longer trip to Manaus.
Two training grounds qualify for that, here's the first:
Or here:
Not sure if the US would want to move or pony up the money for two different training grounds but there are some viable options.
The later two are in my hometown.
Interesting that the US' odds didn't decrease after the draw. Wonder how much they would have shot up if they were in E instead of Honduras. 90:1? 80:1?