World Cup Draw

[Jeff Van GULLY]

FIFA Pots

POT 1	POT 2	POT 3	POT 4
(8)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Brazil	Chile	Japan	Netherlands
Argentina	Ecuador	Iran	Italy
Colombia	Côte d'Ivoire	Korea Republic	England
Uruguay	Ghana	Australia	Portugal
Spain	Algeria	USA	Greece
Germany	Nigeria	Mexico	Bosnia-Herzegovina
Belgium	Cameroon	Costa Rica	Croatia
Switzerland		Honduras	Russia
			France

 
 
FIFA just announced a twist to the Wold Cup draw.  There will be a random draw from the UEFA teams in Pot 4 to see who is placed in Pot 2 with Conmebol and CAF.  This will happen prior to the Pot 1 draw.  The UEFA team will then be placed into a group against a Conmebol team from Pot 1. 
 
There is also something called Pot X, ensuring that the Conmebol teams are not seeded into the same group as other Conmebol teams. 
 
So instead of going by lowest FIFA ranked UEFA team being placed automatically in Pot 2, we could see Italy or England seeded there, potentially creating the deathiest group of death ever.
 
Potential Group of Death:
 
Brazil (pot 1)
Italy (pot 2)
US (pot 3)
Netherlands (Pot 4)
 
Travel Distance
 
[tablegrid= Travel Distance by Seed ]Draw  Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Travel Miles E2 Brasília Curitiba Rio de Janeiro 1946 H2 Belo Horizonte Porto Alegre Curitiba 2084 B3 Cuiabá Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 2088 H3 Cuiabá Rio de Janeiro Curitiba 2508 H4 Cuiabá Porto Alegre São Paulo 2704 F3 Curitiba Belo Horizonte Salvador 2830 B2 Salvador Porto Alegre São Paulo 2862 B4 Cuiabá Porto Alegre Curitiba 3124 F4 Curitiba Cuiabá Porto Alegre 3124 E3 Porto Alegre Salvador Rio de Janeiro 3304 F2 Rio de Janeiro Cuiabá Salvador 3892 D3 Manaus São Paulo Belo Horizonte 3946 E4 Porto Alegre Curitiba Manaus 4818 A2 São Paulo Manaus Recife 5984 D2 Fortaleza Recife Belo Horizonte 6192 G2 Salvador Manaus Brasília 6228 C2 Belo Horizonte Natal Fortaleza 6430 C3 Recife Brasília Fortaleza 6670 G3 Natal Fortaleza Brasília 6908 C4 Recife Natal Cuiabá 7172 A4 Natal Manaus Brasília 7306 A3 Natal Fortaleza Recife 8468 D4 Manaus Recife Natal 8866 G4 Natal Manaus Recife 8866                 Average Travel 4930       Median Travel 4382 [/tablegrid]
 
 
 
 
 
The draw will be this Friday at 11:30 AM ET on ESPN2.

 

[OCST]

Still don't know how Switzerland got into Pot 1.  They're not pushovers, but whoever gets them for their Pot 1 team is going to be happy.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Still don't know how Switzerland got into Pot 1.  They're not pushovers, but whoever gets them for their Pot 1 team is going to be happy.

I was going to say same thing re: Belgium.
 
Both are paper tigers IMHO.
 
Would have thought Portugal and Netherlands belong in Pot 1 instead.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Isn't one result, though, that it also sets up the potential for avoiding a tougher team from pot 4.  If they had put the lowest ranked team into the second pot, it would have been Russia, I believe.  Now, suppose that Portugal, Italy or Netherlands get sent over to pot 2.  The downside, sure, is that you might draw that team into your group.  The upside, though, is if you don't, you've taken one great team out of your pot 4 draw and you still can draw Russia from pot 4.  
 
If Russia or Bosnia-Herzegovina ends up going to pot 2, this procedure ends up not making much difference.  If one of the big three goes over, USA now has a 1/8th chance of drawing that team from pot 2.  But, with that, it has a new 1/8th chance of avoiding that same team from pot 4, so I think it's kind of net neutral.   If Portugal moves to pot 2 and USA draws them, it sucks all around.  But if Portugal moves to pot 2, and USA draws Cameroon from pot 2, then all of the sudden we're happy that Portugal is no longer in pot 4, right?  

 

[coremiller]

I was going to say same thing re: Belgium.
 
Both are paper tigers IMHO.
 
Would have thought Portugal and Netherlands belong in Pot 1 instead.

 
Belgium is actually good, a legit top-10 team.  Switzerland racked up a high FIFA ranking because they had a good record in a super-easy qualification group: they drew Slovenia (FIFA rank #29), Iceland (50),  Albania (57), Norway (54), and Cyprus(127).  I think Colombia is overrated at #4, but at least they had an impressive record in Conmebol qualifying against real opponents.  

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

DDB - Correct, it could go the other way as well. 
 
Also, I just watched the PC again and Pot X is comprised of the 4 Conmebol teams in Pot 1.  Right after the UEFA draw to Pot 2, they will pair that team with a team from Pot X and have two teams already placed into a group.  So the Conmebol teams in Pot 1 are really hoping that the initial draw into Pot 2 is a weak UEFA team. 
 
This can lead to an initial group of Brazil and Italy but it could also be Uruguay and Russia. 

 

[OCST]

I was going to say same thing re: Belgium.
 
Both are paper tigers IMHO.
 
Would have thought Portugal and Netherlands belong in Pot 1 instead.

 
You really think so?
 
Bentenke, Lukaku, Mirallas, Hazard, Mignolet. . .  not too shabby IMO.

 

[coremiller]

 
You really think so?
 
Bentenke, Lukaku, Mirallas, Hazard, Mignolet. . .  not too shabby IMO.

 
Also Kompany, Vertonghen, Van Buyten, Vermaelen, Dembele, Fellaini,.  They are strong everywhere except fullback.  

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Dan to Theo to Ben knows very little about soccer. I thought this was established.

 

[BostonJack42]

ESPN has a draw simulator (link: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1624463/world-cup-2014-draw-simulator?cc=5901).
 
I played it like 20 times and not once did things look good for the US.

 

[OCST]

ESPN has a draw simulator (link: http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1624463/world-cup-2014-draw-simulator?cc=5901).
 
I played it like 20 times and not once did things look good for the US.

 
Check the International Football thread for another simulator, I think it's more fun than this one.
 
Just tried this one, and on the first shot, I got USA with Croatia, Nigeria, and Colombia.  Yes, please.
 
edit: second shot was USA, Switzerland, Ecuador, Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I think I like this one better after all.

 

[Infield Infidel]

ESPN hasn't updated the simulator with the UEFA pre-draw quirk yet

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

Isn't one result, though, that it also sets up the potential for avoiding a tougher team from pot 4.  If they had put the lowest ranked team into the second pot, it would have been Russia, I believe.  Now, suppose that Portugal, Italy or Netherlands get sent over to pot 2.  The downside, sure, is that you might draw that team into your group.  The upside, though, is if you don't, you've taken one great team out of your pot 4 draw and you still can draw Russia from pot 4.

It's largely a wash, as best I can tell. In the event that it's someone other than France/Russia as the team (8/9 chance), it's a 1/8 chance of getting an easier team out of pot 4, 1/8 chance of getting a harder team out of pot 2. The overall balance is the same but the variance is higher.

 

[JayMags71]

I used the guardian's simulator and after a dozen or so tries, I got the US to win:
Drew Bosnia, Nigeria, and Colombia. Came in second. Beat Belgium in the knockout, then Brazil in the quarters, then Uruguay in the semis, then France in the Final.

Sounds plausible.

 

[bosox4283]

 
Also Kompany, Vertonghen, Van Buyten, Vermaelen, Dembele, Fellaini,.  They are strong everywhere except fullback.  

 
And Belgium's keeper, Courtois, is one of the best in the world. 

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

And Belgium's keeper, Courtois, is one of the best in the world.


Pretty crazy that Belgium has two keepers that any international team would love to have. I'm pretty sure Courtois starts over Mignolet.

 

[DLew On Roids]

Hard to believe someone hasn't thrown stupid money to buy him yet.

Oh.

 

[Verryfunny2]

I like the belgians but i think if they get confronted with decent opponents they dont perform, see the losses to Japan and Columbia. I had them as a dark horse but now i think one round and they are done. Some crazy stats only once has a team which was not in Pot 1 become champion Argentina in Mexico. So the confusing rankings have a great effect on who will be champion. The dutch havent lost this year and won their group handily but still are not in Pot 1. Mark my words, the dutch will be in the group of death.

 

[OCST]

so is the draw televised/streaming somewhere?

 

[Joe D Reid]

so is the draw televised/streaming somewhere?

The event itself is 57 minutes of nonsense (picture equal parts Super Bowl pregame, Olympic closing ceremony, and Sabado Gigante, but less entertaining than that sounds) followed by 3 minutes of ping-pong balls. Just follow the BBC's liveblog--they'll give you the actual draw info in more or less real time.

 

[Bailey10]

Pretty crazy that Belgium has two keepers that any international team would love to have. I'm pretty sure Courtois starts over Mignolet.

 
Fucking Chelski. Must be tough to have 2 of the best keepers in the world. Forced to keep loaning out Courtois to a legitimately great team in Atletico, where he gains La Liga and Champions League experience, and wait until the seemingly ageless Cech is finally over the hill.

 

[Zomp]

The frightening thing about Belgium is their age.  Of their major players on Van Buyten is over 28.  They have big time players everywhere, and with Lukaku maturing this season the big question will be do you start him, Benteke, or both up front?  IMO starting both does them no good as it takes Witsel out of his #10 role.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

so is the draw televised/streaming somewhere?

 
ESPN2 and I'm sure it will be on ESPN3 in addition to FIFA.com

 

[Bailey10]

The frightening thing about Belgium is their age.  Of their major players on Van Buyten is over 28.  They have big time players everywhere, and with Lukaku maturing this season the big question will be do you start him, Benteke, or both up front?  IMO starting both does them no good as it takes Witsel out of his #10 role.

 
You sure you want Witsel in the #10 role? I see Witsel sitting next to Dembele/Fellaini with a line of Hazard and 2 out of Mertens/Mirallas/De Bruyne in front of him and Lukaku up top. Witsel is a competent tackler so why not let him make runs from deep? If De Bruyne can get a loan move in January and rediscover some of the form he had at Wolfsburg, he would be an exciting playmaker behind Lukaku.

 

[dirtynine]

A bit of self-promotion here; I'm designing and making shirts for all 32 WC teams, and documenting the design process for each team.  I'll have a post about Group A up on Friday after the Draw, if you want to direct your WC energy somewhere fun. 

 

[Infield Infidel]

The frightening thing about Belgium is their age.  Of their major players on Van Buyten is over 28.  They have big time players everywhere, and with Lukaku maturing this season the big question will be do you start him, Benteke, or both up front?  IMO starting both does them no good as it takes Witsel out of his #10 role.

 
I think their youth might get the better of them, but they should be primed for 2018. 

 

[Paradigm]

The event itself is 57 minutes of nonsense (picture equal parts Super Bowl pregame, Olympic closing ceremony, and Sabado Gigante, but less entertaining than that sounds) followed by 3 minutes of ping-pong balls.

 
Brilliant

 

[SoxFanInCali]

The ping-pong balls actually take longer than 3 minutes, as they draw the balls one at a time and make a big production out of opening it and showing the piece of paper inside.
 
Go to 7:20 to see the US draw for South Africa 2010, which is enjoyable for Lalas talking trash with Macca.
 
http://youtu.be/A6vHRJ_i-PA?t=7m18s

 

[DJnVa]

A bit of self-promotion here; I'm designing and making shirts for all 32 WC teams, and documenting the design process for each team.  I'll have a post about Group A up on Friday after the Draw, if you want to direct your WC energy somewhere fun. 

 
Sounds good. Keep us updated.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Getting Switzerland from Pot 1 would be great for the US, but it's really Pot 4 that scares that crap out of me.  Please, please let's avoid Italy or the Netherlands.
 
In fact, with the random carryover UEFA team in Pot 2, a Brazil-Italy-USA-Netherlands group is actually possible.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I used the guardian's simulator and after a dozen or so tries, I got the US to win:
Drew Bosnia, Nigeria, and Colombia. Came in second. Beat Belgium in the knockout, then Brazil in the quarters, then Uruguay in the semis, then France in the Final.

Sounds plausible.

I'd love to know what the "upset percentage" in their formula is, I had 5 straight where the US was the 2nd highest seeded team in their group and got upset by a Euro team who was lower ranked. It appears to be.... Anyone in Pot 4 wins unless they play Brazil or Argentina.
 
Edit- as soon as I post this and try another US goes to Semi-finals in upset city tournament. Brazil and Portugal don't make it out of the Group stage finishing behind Mexico and Cameroon. (I wonder what odds you could get on that.. 1,000,000 to 1?)

 

[TheJodyReedExperience]

A bit of self-promotion here; I'm designing and making shirts for all 32 WC teams, and documenting the design process for each team.  I'll have a post about Group A up on Friday after the Draw, if you want to direct your WC energy somewhere fun. 

Off to a nice start, Iceland looks great. I'm excited to see the rest!

 

[sachmoney]

Is this the most stacked World Cup ever? I mean, how many genuinely bad teams are there? The fact that there are so many ways to get screwed by the draw and so few ways to not get screwed has to be a testament to this tournament's depth. I was talking with goyang about this and as far as bad teams, all we came up with was Switzerland, Greece, and Algeria. Even those teams aren't bad bad. They're about average. It's really impressive.
 
(I know missed out on taking a shot at Mexico here)

 

[DLew On Roids]

There are a lot of mediocre teams, but the problem for the USA is that most of them are in Pot 2.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

World Cup Draw -- Everything You Need to Know
 
 
 
 

The slate of participating teams is a veritable Murderers' Row of footballing talent. The average FIFA draw ranking of the qualifiers for 2010 was 26 (SPI 20.3). In 2014 it will be 21.1 (SPI 20.3) There is only one debutant in Bosnia & Herzegovina in a field which contains 31 squads that can genuinely boast of being among the best teams in their region, plus England. World Cup 2014 promises to be a tournament so suffocatingly competitive that the traditional clichéd "Group of Death" will feel redundant.

 
 
:lol:

 

[candylandriots]

A bit of self-promotion here; I'm designing and making shirts for all 32 WC teams, and documenting the design process for each team.  I'll have a post about Group A up on Friday after the Draw, if you want to direct your WC energy somewhere fun. 

 
I love the Iceland design. I will definitely be buying a few shirts when they're ready. Nice work.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Is this the most stacked World Cup ever? I mean, how many genuinely bad teams are there? The fact that there are so many ways to get screwed by the draw and so few ways to not get screwed has to be a testament to this tournament's depth. I was talking with goyang about this and as far as bad teams, all we came up with was Switzerland, Greece, and Algeria. Even those teams aren't bad bad. They're about average. It's really impressive.
 
(I know missed out on taking a shot at Mexico here)

 
This is great news as there is no bigger showcase for the sport. The thing that struck me about the past couple of cups is how sloppy team play can be though. It makes perfect sense - compared to club competition these teams just don't train as much together. This is also why countries with overarching styles/skills sets tend to do the best (Spain, Germany, and Italy). The other factor that doesn't get enough press is that the WC is a young man's competition. From what I remember, the schedule is pretty quick, and the tourney's in the summer, which only adds to the importance of fitness/youth.

 

[DJnVa]

World Cup Draw -- Everything You Need to Know
 
 

 
Looks the draw will be 90 minutes long, not 60. Ugh.
 
EDIT: Wait, 2 hours. ESPN2 from 11:30-1:30.
 
 

ESPN's SPI analysis suggests the United States' best-case draw scenario -- a group containing Switzerland, Algeria and Croatia -- offers them a 72.7 percent chance of advancing. Their worst-case scenario -- Spain, Chile, France -- will see that percentage slip to 15.1 percent. Either way, they will discover whether their regional dominance counts for anything outside of the parallel universe of CONCACAF.
 

 

[DJnVa]

From what I remember, the schedule is pretty quick, and the tourney's in the summer,

 
Well, Brazil is in the southern hemisphere, so it's actually not in the summer.
 

Though the tournament theoretically takes place during Brazil's winter, games in the southern cities of Rio, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte will be played in comfortable conditions of between 60 and 70 degrees. But the heat which swamps the nation's northeastern cities of Recife, Salvador and Fortaleza can see humidity touch an energy-sapping 98 percent.
 

 

[soxfan121]

Brian Straus at SI.com has a look at how other countries view the USMNT as part of their "group of death" possibilities. Interesting stuff about how the USMNT is viewed by sports media abroad. 
 

But the Italians and the Germans, both of whom have lost friendlies to Klinsmann’s U.S., are wary of the Americans. RAI’s group of death includes Brazil, France and either the U.S. or Mexico, and La Repubblica hopes the Azzuri avoids the U.S. and Japan.

 

[Zomp]

So will match times be in prime time for us east coasters?

 

[coremiller]

So will match times be in prime time for us east coasters?

 
I doubt it.  Based on the Confederations Cup, I'd expect matches to be in prime time for Europe and mid-afternoon here.

 

[Infield Infidel]

If they are aiming for games at 7pm and 9pm CET, then that'd be 1pm and 3pm ET. And I think 3pm and 5pm local time (not sure about the DST difference during the summer; BrasilSoxFan?)

 

[OCST]

Brian Straus at SI.com has a look at how other countries view the USMNT as part of their "group of death" possibilities. Interesting stuff about how the USMNT is viewed by sports media abroad. 
 

 
That makes sense to me.  In their current form, USA is the classic "team no one wants to play" - you're supposed to beat them, but they are good enough to be a tough out, and possibly to beat you if you don't play your best.  There are a lot of other teams in our pot that I'd rather play.

 

[Dan Murfman]

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/

They have tentatively released the times of the matches. Looks like 12:00, 3:00, 4:00 and 6:00 starts on east coast

 

[mgoblue2]

EDIT: Wait, 2 hours. ESPN2 from 11:30-1:30. 

There may also be analysis afterwards that brings it to 1:30. Remembering from 2010 I think the actual draw process takes 10ish minutes.

 

[Statman]

 

 
So will match times be in prime time for us east coasters?

 
Here is a handy pre-draw table of when all of the matches will be shown EST.  Most of the group stage matches will be at noon EST, 3:00 p.m. EST and 6:00 p.m. EST. 
 
http://worldsoccertalk.com/2013/11/22/tv-times-for-fifa-world-cup-2014-for-soccer-fans-in-the-united-states/

 

[cannonball 1729]

Brian Straus at SI.com has a look at how other countries view the USMNT as part of their "group of death" possibilities. Interesting stuff about how the USMNT is viewed by sports media abroad. 
 

Quote

But the Italians and the Germans, both of whom have lost friendlies to Klinsmann’s U.S., are wary of the Americans. RAI’s group of death includes Brazil, France and either the U.S. or Mexico, and La Repubblica hopes the Azzuri avoids the U.S. and Japan.

 

 
 
Pretty big change from 2010, no?
 
 

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

 
The FIFA draw rules ensure that three European teams will not end up in the same group.

 
And there were not three European teams in the group that you quoted, unless the U.S. or Brazil moved while I wasn't looking.
 

Is this the most stacked World Cup ever? I mean, how many genuinely bad teams are there? The fact that there are so many ways to get screwed by the draw and so few ways to not get screwed has to be a testament to this tournament's depth. I was talking with goyang about this and as far as bad teams, all we came up with was Switzerland, Greece, and Algeria. Even those teams aren't bad bad. They're about average. It's really impressive.
 
(I know missed out on taking a shot at Mexico here)

 
It's the best field in quite a while.  Just about everyone in the field is in the top n of their federation (where n is the number of spots the federation had), and even the ones who aren't in the top n aren't too far off.

 

[DJnVa]

 
That makes sense to me.  In their current form, USA is the classic "team no one wants to play" - you're supposed to beat them, but they are good enough to be a tough out, and possibly to beat you if you don't play your best.  There are a lot of other teams in our pot that I'd rather play.

 
I think that may speak more to our pot though, no? One of the best teams in the worst pot means if other countries are putting together their "group of death" you're going to be the pick because you gotta pick one team.