Workman Going Forward

[ivanvamp]

Can we talk about Workman's long-term projection for a moment?  He has been very solid for the Red Sox since he made the majors.  
 
Here are his starts with the big club:
 
7/14/13, at Oak:  6.1 ip, 2 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 5 k
7/22/13, vs TB:  6.0 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 4 k
7/30/13, vs Sea:  6.0 ip, 6 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 9 k
5/25/14, at TB:  5.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 3 k
5/30/14, vs TB:  5.1 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k
6/4/14, at Cle:  5.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 2 bb, 3 k
6/10/14, at Bal:  6.2 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 4 k
 
TOTALS:  7 g, 40.1 ip, 29 h, 13 r, 13 er, 13 bb, 32 k, 2.90 era, 1.04 whip, 7.1 k/9
 
What do we have here?  Is he looking like a solid MLB starting pitcher?  What is his upside?  He has pretty good stuff - not a dominating fastball, but not bad either, plus a very nice curve - seems to know what he's doing out there, and has had good results.  And he was very successful in the minors, suggesting that this isn't a fluke.
 
Also, on the bright stage of last year's postseason, he was terrific:  8.2 ip, 7 h, 1 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 4 k, 0.00 era, 1.15 whip, 4.2 k/9.  So he seems pretty unflappable.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Even if you were to argue that last night's dominance was rain assisted (a fair point IMO) you'd still have to like what Workman's been doing. The biggest thing to me is his curve. Previously it had been described as a potential out pitch if it every developed... well, it's developing. Don and Jerry made a big deal about it yesterday and how much it's improved. He's a big dude who throws pretty hard (tops at 95?) and he's got a cutter that is a very strong pitch. According to SoxProspects.com his curveball and change were kind of works in progress... and it seems like his curve has come a long way. They liked him as an 8th inning guy or a back of the rotation starter but just how far has he come exactly? He's got a ways to go still, but he's starting to look like more and more of a sure thing as a starting pitcher. 

EDIT: I'll throw this in too: 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/06/brandon_workman_proving_himsel.html

Is it time to start stretching out his arm? He's routinely getting pulled around 90 pitches. Last night was a special case because of the rain delay, but why not try keeping him on the hill a little longer and working on him going deeper into games? 

 

[Puffy]

Can we break out this discussion into a new thread about Workman's performance and potential? It would be too bad to see this topic buried at the end of the Longoria megathread.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I agree, sometimes we're a little too cautious about starting new threads. 

 

[Puffy]

Based on the scouting reports coming up, the impression I had of Workman was that he had a relatively low ceiling but high floor, similar to Doubront. I'm glad the Red Sox are giving these guys a chance even if they profile more as back of the rotation starters. Doubront has turned out to be pretty valuable and Workman seems to have the same potential. The stuff isn't necessarily electric, but he throws strikes and seems to have a good feel for what it takes to be a pitcher in the majors. 

 

[Paradigm]

We internet snarks aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt because he wasn't a Top 100 prospect, he wasn't a first round draft pick, he was drafted out of college (so he must only have the upside of a #3 starter!), and he doesn't have that "plus-plus fastball but struggling with his command" profile that everyone laps up. 
 
But you know what? Eff that -- the kid can pitch, he's not scared of pitching for the big club, and he has a real future in the rotation.
 
He was hands down the best pick of the 2nd round of the 2010 MLB draft (Drew Smyly, Jimmy Nelson, and Vince Velasquez might eventually enter the conversation, but certainly not yet). And importantly, Farrell trusts him. 

 

[Rasputin]

He gives us a couple more good starts, I'm going to be talking about putting Doubront in the pen for the rest of the year

 

[pokey_reese]

FIP 3.12, xFIP 3.94, basically because he doesn't strike a ton of people out, has a BABIP of .215, and has given up only a 3.6% HR rate in a small sample size.  So he is outperforming his expected numbers, but if he can end up with an ERA around 3.75-4 he is likely to be more valuable than the current incarnations of Buchholz and Doubront.
 
That said, let's wait and see what the league does the second time around.  I would love to see him stay in the rotation, but we are still looking at a total of four starts this year.  It is encouraging the way that he holds his velocity into the middle innings though, and he seems like a bulldog who isn't afraid to go after hitters, though he still walks a batter or two more than would be good with his K and GB rates.  Cautiously optimistic, but need to see more.
 
edit: added BABIP

 

[FinanceAdvice]

I've never been impressed with Doubront's inconsistency. So I'd keep Workman in the rotation. I do admit to being cautious But cautious on the optimistic side given his performance in the playoffs last year. Only 26 ( 2 more months). PECOTA projects him to be a 4.20 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35. Dont know why as that seems to be on the high side. Regular season projection has him at 3.65 with a WHIP of 1.20 which to me seems more in line. I like his command and location. Although Doubront has a far larger sample size to draw on (404 IP vs. Workman's 70),if you look at Doubronts first years numbers, he fared worse than Workman. Suffice it to say, Doubront is not the second coming of Johan Santana.

 

[Plympton91]

Keep Workman in the rotation for the time being, move Doubront to long relief, and trade Capuano or Breslow for a decent outfield prospect?

 

[TomRicardo]

Keep Workman in the rotation for the time being, move Doubront to long relief, and trade Capuano or Breslow for a decent outfield prospect?

 
Who is going to give a decent OF prospect for back of the bullpen arm?

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Who is going to give a decent OF prospect for back of the bullpen arm?

 
Perhaps a team with several decent OF prospects, a huge need for a bullpen arm, and a legit shot at a good playoff run?

 

[MakMan44]

I wonder if we could package Carp and a bullpen arm for Michael Choice. 
 
I forgot Carp was hurt

 

[Plympton91]

Possible you could get something useful for Miller, defintely Uehara, but for Capuano or Breslow? Don't see it.

Offense is way down; the league ERA for relievers is 3.59.

The only teams that appear to be contenders with an obvious need for relievers look to be Detroit and Toronto (potentially MFY and LAA), and I'd expect them to aim higher. If the Sox trade one of thoes guys, I'd expect a return similar to what they got when they moved Ramirez and Delcarmen years ago.

 
I agree that they shouldn't expect much for Capuano, as he's crashing and burning as we speak.  But they shouldn't sell low on Breslow.
 
Craig Breslow has a career ERA of 2.91; 1.81 last year, 2.70 the year before that. FIP doesn't like him as much and xFIP doesn't like him at all, but after 432 major league innings, he's been telling FIP to Fipk Off and getting consistently excellent results.  This year might be that reversion to SABR everyone here probably expects, or he could have just had 2 really, really bad days out of 21 outings that will wane in importance to his overall stats as his innings rise.
 
If they didn't have a cheaper version in Doubront seemingly getting pushed out of the rotation, I wouldn't be looking to deal him at all.  Miller I would sign to a 3 or 4 year deal for $4-$5.5 million per year at this point.  Whatever it took to get him.  He's been awsome since his switch to full time relief, and they'd be getting a potentially top reliever who doesn't have to be used as a loogy and has already succeeded in Boston.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Deleted

 

[BosRedSox5]

I wonder if we could package Carp and a bullpen arm for Michael Choice. 
 
I forgot Carp was hurt

 
Michael Choice is an interesting player. What am I not seeing here? Why would Billy Beane trade a former 10th overall pick who shot through their system for a fourth outfielder and a crappy bullpen arm? Anyway, I doubt the Rangers repeat his mistake. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
Michael Choice is an interesting player. What am I not seeing here? Why would Billy Beane trade a former 10th overall pick who shot through their system for a fourth outfielder and a crappy bullpen arm? Anyway, I doubt the Rangers repeat his mistake. 

Well Gentry is actually a useful player, he's been worth at least 1 win each of the last three seasons. Choice is indeed an interesting player but he's had some trouble tapping into his power the last couple seasons. I'd still love to see if the Rangers would be dumb enough to move him for a 1st baseman though. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Another outing for the big Texas righty and another really strong showing. He went over 100 pitches for the first time in a Red Sox uniform and while he didn't get the win, he was very effective. Scattered five hits over six innings and while he did give up a homerun, it was to Michael Brantley, not some scrub. Anyway, it's looking more and more like Workman is cementing himself as a starter. At one point he was considered a relief prospect, but no more.