Winter Meetings/Rumor Thread

Red(s)HawksFan

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DrewDawg said:
Orioles have apparently pulled the offer to Davis.
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From the outside, it appears like Duquette wanted the Davis matter settled by the end of the meetings or he was moving on to other options. That might explain why he was offering arguably too much to start with and then upping the offer without any apparent competition. He went to his upper limit, set a deadline, and dared Boras/Davis to say yes. They balked and Duquette stuck to his deadline. A part of my is looking forward to Davis striking out with other teams and crawling back to the O's expecting the 7/150 offer will still be there, and only finding something like 3/63 or something.
 
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Christian Bentancourt traded for Casey Kelly and Ricardo Rodriguez. I know that Kelly has fallen from top prospects list, but I REALLY don't get this from the Padres POV, unless they're planning on moving Derek Norris/Austin Hedges.
 
Mighty Joe Young

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
From the outside, it appears like Duquette wanted the Davis matter settled by the end of the meetings or he was moving on to other options. That might explain why he was offering arguably too much to start with and then upping the offer without any apparent competition. He went to his upper limit, set a deadline, and dared Boras/Davis to say yes. They balked and Duquette stuck to his deadline. A part of my is looking forward to Davis striking out with other teams and crawling back to the O's expecting the 7/150 offer will still be there, and only finding something like 3/63 or something.
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This sounds about right .. the same could be said for Cueto. If it was any other agent than Boras I would probably agree - but he rarely makes big time mistakes. He may be whispering "pillow contract" into Davis' ear soon.

All players (and agents) should have a picture of Jody Reed in their wallets.
 
jimbobim

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Just some food for thought whenever that Cubs Heyward signing comes down and is praised as Theo being more genius. The comps aren't perfect because Heyward is still only 26 and has a higher walk rate, but the +RC are pretty similar between Crawford and Heyward. Also beneficial for Heyward he won't be stuck in a smaller LF
  1. \
    Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 11s11 seconds ago
    #STLCards out on Heyward, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. @dgoold had indicated they no longer were in play.

  2. Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 17s17 seconds ago
    Cubs definitely still in mix for heyward, with decision coming soon. Nats, and according to @dgoold cardinals, discouraged

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1201&position=OF
 
DeadlySplitter

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Probably because he's 26, teams felt comfortable betting on his prime.

I don't think he'll ever have a high BA though
 
Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Looks like it's the Cubs. Theo will be hailed as genius on this one for some reason. Is Heyward a $200m player? Ugh.
This is a bit like the JD Drew deal, where talk radio will complain about Heyward forever because he doesn't hit enough home runs for a guy with that type of contract.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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26, a great defensive player (at a semi-premium position), and good on-base skills. Two of those things, Carl Crawford didn't really have going for him. A lot of Crawford's value, both offensively and defensively, were derived from his speed. Heyward's game is reliant on speed hardly at all.
 
jon abbey

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His OF defense isn't reliant on speed? Not saying you're wrong, but please explain.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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jon abbey said:
His OF defense isn't reliant on speed? Not saying you're wrong, but please explain.
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Heyward has foot speed, and it plays into his defensive prowess, but he also has great instincts and a cannon arm. His range isn't dependent on elite foot speed the way someone like Crawford or Ellsbury are. He's much more in the mold of a JBJ, who isn't a burner by any stretch (nor is he a slew-foot) but gets great jumps and covers a lot of ground by taking proper angles. I think those kinds of defensive skills age a lot better than pure speed.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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mikeford said:
BestFansSTL is having an absolute meltdown right now. I am loving every horrible racist, homophobic second of it.
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Holy shit, you aren't kidding. Lots of emotion for a guy who was a Cardinal for all of 12 months. I get that going to the Cubs is like a Red Sox going to the Yankees (really, wouldn't it be the other way around though?), but there's no way Heyward could be "one of us" to Cardinal fans like Damon and Ellsbury were to Red Sox fans. Yet he's getting roasted in many of the same ways. Particularly being repeatedly called a "trader".
 
soxhop411

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“@jonmorosi: #Cubs have agreed to terms with Jason Heyward, multiple sources say, and are not done yet. They are trying to trade for a starting pitcher.”
 
rembrat

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Jason Heyward is not a $200MM dollar player. I don't care what you do with his projections, his age, or his defensive skills. What the fuck is going on.
 
LesterFan

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Heyward is 26, an above average hitter, great defender, great baserunner and can probably still get better. Since he entered the league in 2010 he's 11th in fWAR among all players (27.8, average of 4.6 per season). What exactly do people think he's worth, 100 million? I feel like people undervalue him because when you think of a $200 million player you only think of a big slugger who hits 30+ homers but are shitty defenders and/or baserunners. Heyward is a great all-around player who hit free agency at a very young age.
 
nattysez

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rembrat said:
Jason Heyward is not a $200MM dollar player. I don't care what you do with his projections, his age, or his defensive skills. What the fuck is going on.
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He's worth $200mm if, on top of the other value he brings as a player, (1) you have the money to spend because you have a ton of young players locked up for a long time at low salaries, and (2) you believe you will significantly weaken your top division rival by signing him. I agree that he's not necessarily a $200mm player on paper, but I think paying him that much is worthwhile for the Cubs.
 
DisgruntledSoxFan77

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Seeing Cardinal fans react like that is as entertaining as Blue Jays fans freaking out that long term Jay (if you can consider 3 months long term) David Price left. In all honesty, before the Heyward signing it felt like the Cubs had made moves similar to how the Sox addressed needs after 2003, now I'm getting a 2002 Yankees feeling
 
rembrat

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LesterFan said:
Heyward is 26, an above average hitter, great defender, great baserunner and can probably still get better. Since he entered the league in 2010 he's 11th in fWAR among all players (27.8, average of 4.6 per season). What exactly do people think he's worth, 100 million? I feel like people undervalue him because when you think of a $200 million player you only think of a big slugger who hits 30+ homers but are shitty defenders and/or baserunners. Heyward is a great all-around player who hit free agency at a very young age.
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Did you just recycle a pre FA Carl Crawford write up?

From 2003 to 2010, Carl was 6th in fWAR. I love that Theo is making the same mistake again.
 
DJnVa

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rembrat said:
Did you just recycle a pre FA Carl Crawford write up?

From 2003 to 2010, Carl was 6th in fWAR. I love that Theo is making the same mistake again.
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Well, it is a lot of money, but Crawford was 3 years older than Heyward.
 
nattysez

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rembrat said:
Did you just recycle a pre FA Carl Crawford write up?

From 2003 to 2010, Carl was 6th in fWAR. I love that Theo is making the same mistake again.
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Carl Crawford was 3 years older, played in a completely different media market, and was under much more pressure to be a star than Heyward will be. Saying that the two situations are "the same mistake" is really kind of silly.
 
Snoop Soxy Dogg

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nattysez said:
Carl Crawford was 3 years older, played in a completely different media market, and was under much more pressure to be a star than Heyward will be. Saying that the two situations are "the same mistake" is really kind of silly.
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I get the age difference, but the other two points sound like rationalization. Isn't Heyward going to be expected to be a star? In a market that now expects to go to the world series?
 
rembrat

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nattysez said:
Saying that the two situations are "the same mistake" is really kind of silly.
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You're right. I take that back. Crawford had a pretty consistent track record so you could forgive Theo when Crawford completely lost all his baseball skills. Very few saw that kind of decline coming. This time around though Theo is betting that Heyward takes the next step and becomes a marquee player.

And yea I get the age thing but I don't really see that as anything to be excited about. Heyward is still at that age where he could completely fall off a cliff or spend the next few years finding himself.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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nattysez said:
Carl Crawford was 3 years older, played in a completely different media market, and was under much more pressure to be a star than Heyward will be. Saying that the two situations are "the same mistake" is really kind of silly.
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Crawford also played a less premium position and derived value from playing it well (to the tune of a Gold Glove in his career best season), and was signed by a team who really REALLY didn't need his type of defense at his position. Heyward plays Gold Glove defense (3X) at a premium position and isn't averse to moving to an even more premium position (CF) if needed.

Heyward is also a better hitter than Crawford ever was.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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Greg29fan said:
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m1 minute ago
Source: Heyward with #Cubs is eight years, $184M.
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If previous rumors are to be believed, either he left money or years on the table to go to the Cubs. So much for the "Best Baseball Fans" accusing him of valuing money over winning (whatever that amounts to when he's going to a team that made it to the NLCS and is only getting better).
 
glennhoffmania

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I think Heyward is a very good to great player who does everything well but isn't viewed as elite because some of his stronger skills are things like having a Deweyish arm and really good baserunning. If he isn't worth $20m+ in this market at his age then I don't think many players are. If the Sox had a 26 year old player who put up a .350+ OBP with some power and baserunning while playing plus plus defense over the last three years we'd all be gushing over him.
 
Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Greg29fan said:
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m1 minute ago
Source: Heyward with #Cubs is eight years, $184M.
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Theo's been near perfect so far in Chicago (if you forget about that Edwin Jackson contract). This one is his first mistake, I think (player not worth that kind of money), but it's one they can absorb, so why not. The FA market has always been where Theo found trouble, but if they win a World Series nobody will care about that contract.
 
grimshaw

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So Heyward is about 23 mill per. He's averaged over 5 wins a year the past 4 which is 40 mill in today's market.
If he is half that player over the next 8 years (2.5 WAR being worth 20 mill), and then adding about a million in inflation per year, it's virtually a break even.
20 2016
21 2017
22 2018
23 2019
24 2020
25 2021
26 2022
27 2023
= $187 mill

I think it's a good deal for both sides. Heyward gets the length, the Cubs get a ton of surplus value up front, and a good chance at him maintaining that all the way to the end from his defense and speed alone. And he'll be 34 at the end, so the decline may only be gentle by then.
 
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MikeM

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Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
Theo's been near perfect so far in Chicago (if you forget about that Edwin Jackson contract). This one is his first mistake, I think (player not worth that kind of money), but it's one they can absorb, so why not. The FA market has always been where Theo found trouble, but if they win a World Series nobody will care about that contract.
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IDK, I personally just can't wrap my head around accepting a concept where that 4 years on Zobrist was actually a good idea. Kinda reminds me of the Mike Cameron signing with extra years tacked on.

Personally, that plus this upcoming contract on Heyward (unless maybe it's heavily front loaded i guess) is serving as a fairly solid reminder why I was more then ready to let the Theo Epstein era die with the firing of Ben.
 
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moondog80

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Even with this deal (and Lackey and Zobrist), the Cubs only have 128 committed to salary this year, and 104 next year. This is an organization the spent 142 million on payroll in 2010. What else should they have done with the money? Smart to strike now while Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, etc. are cheap and can offset deals like this.
 
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