Winter Meetings/Rumor Thread

rotundlio

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Shelby Miller stinks! 4.08 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA, poor swinging strike rate, flyball tendency. Also a major asshole. That is preposterous.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Never thought I'd write this, but Stewart is kicking Friedman's behind this winter, it seems. Of course, winning the winter will only take you so far. But if they're keeping AJ Pollock that's pretty good.
Spoke too fast...That is a great deal for Atlanta.
 

DeadlySplitter

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From a Red Sox perspective, that trade is like trading JBJ, Moncada and one of Owens/Johnson.
They should have gone all the way with Fernandez given they were willing to give up Swanson, yet they dropped out today. Market is insane right now
 

Pilgrim

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From a Red Sox perspective, that trade is like trading JBJ, Moncada and one of Owens/Johnson.
It might be worth it if you think of him as "25 year old with a 3 ERA" rather than "guy with decent peripherals in the NL East" but I am suspicious that he is closer to the latter.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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They should have gone all the way with Fernandez given they were willing to give up Swanson, yet they dropped out today. Market is insane right now
It's possible, perhaps even likely, that this means the price for Fernandez is preposterous and that this package wasn't close to getting him. Maybe adding Pollock would have gotten them there, but that would mean completely emptying the farm at that point. I'm guessing the Marlins would have wanted more than to add Pollock to that package, though.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Yeah I'm guessing the Marlins are asking for the moon and all the talk today has been mostly bull given this deal
 

RedOctober3829

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It's possible, perhaps even likely, that this means the price for Fernandez is preposterous and that this package wasn't close to getting him. Maybe adding Pollock would have gotten them there, but that would mean completely emptying the farm at that point. I'm guessing the Marlins would have wanted more than to add Pollock to that package, though.
A Sox package after seeing this deal would be in the neighborhood of Bradley, Rodriguez, Moncada, and Devers. Insanity.
 

Scoops Bolling

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That deal is sheer insanity. Inciarte was worth about as many wins as Miller was last year, and he's under team control for an additional season beyond Miller. Now the DBacks have to go out and sign one of the available OFs (maybe a J-Upton reunion?) unless they're comfortable going into next season with Tomas as a regular OF. You could talk me into Inciarte and Blair for Miller if you think Miller takes a step forward and Inciarte proves unable to retain his steps forward on offense...but including Swansby is madness. Just bad, shortsighted, trading.
 

Scoops Bolling

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It's possible, perhaps even likely, that this means the price for Fernandez is preposterous and that this package wasn't close to getting him. Maybe adding Pollock would have gotten them there, but that would mean completely emptying the farm at that point. I'm guessing the Marlins would have wanted more than to add Pollock to that package, though.
Pollock was a 6 win player last year, and was a 6 win pace last year if he'd played a full season. A Pollock and minor pieces for Fernandez trade I could actually see; if the DBacks asked for something like Pollock+Swanson+more, I can't imagine the DBacks would have listened...until they made this trade.
 

grimshaw

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Worst trade of the off season so far. I'm not even sure Inciarte for Miller straight up would have been considered a steal either way.

I mean, I guess they're better for the next year or two and it makes sense while Goldschmidt is in his prime, but they better keep going all in if they hope to catch the Dodgers.
 

nvalvo

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Wow. We all like Fernandez, but I think I'd rather stick with Corbin, the 21 y/o shortstop with the .875 OPS in A ball, and whoever the other guys are. That's crazy.

Corbin has to be worth more than Shelby Miller, no?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Ask for moon, stars, and sun, and maybe, just maybe, someone will bite. It's not like the Marlins have any credibility they could be losing.
Eff their credibility, why shouldn't they ask for the world? Spats with his agent aside, they don't need to trade him. We all danced around Stanton proposals not so long ago and they wrapped him up pretty well. Boras can bloviate all he likes and Fernandez can bitch and moan, but when you have a guy like him you don't trade him unless you get a pretty substantial package back. People are saying Betts straight up is fair. So let's flip the script and those people list a package they would let Mookie go for.
 

moondog80

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Eff their credibility, why shouldn't they ask for the world? Spats with his agent aside, they don't need to trade him. We all danced around Stanton proposals not so long ago and they wrapped him up pretty well. Boras can bloviate all he likes and Fernandez can bitch and moan, but when you have a guy like him you don't trade him unless you get a pretty substantial package back. People are saying Betts straight up is fair. So let's flip the script and those people list a package they would let Mookie go for.
Urias, Seager, Pederson, and two others [emoji1]

The Marlins are the ones taking their guy to market. When the Red Sox do the same with Betts, that's when he conversation goes from "why would they trade him" to "let's see what prospects they get".
 

Pilgrim

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The Braves asking price was even higher than what they got, so I wouldn't rule out anyone who is even halfway on the block getting traded at this point. I kind of want to see what a Fernandez trade even looks like.
 

Pinchrunner#2

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Nov 29, 2015
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Wow, this is insane! Happy that I am not a DBacks fan. They got slapped in the face.

Inciarte had a similar or higher WAR in 2015, depending on which WAR you believe. Even if you think its not precise, it gives you an idea. He is an above average CF.
Blair, according to Keith Law and Schoenfield of ESPN, has Miller potential in two years and is baseballs no. 61 prospect according to MLB.
Swanson, no.1 overall draft pick. In the last ten years players like Harper, Cole, Strasburg, Correa, Price, J. Upton have been picked at no. 1. Swanson projects as an above average regular at SS.

Atlanta got 17 years of team control of three above average MLB/MILB players for three years of Shelby Miller. Insane. And really dumb by the DBacks.

Just sign a Scott Kazmir type and keep the prospects and your OF intact.

Also, I really wonder how this discussion went. Atlanta could not have asked for those three players, knowing this would end any talk. They probably said two good prospects and a MLB piece and were incredibly happy when they heard the names that were offered and then waited biting their nails until it was official.
 
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moondog80

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I have the same opinion on the Miller trade as everyone else, but worth noting that the last time the internet exploded like this was the Myers/Odorizzi for Shields/Davis trade, and I'd say that worked out pretty well for Kansas City.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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So can we revisit all those posts saying DD got taken in the Kimbrel deal? That he should have just tweaked the package to get a SP instead? I'm sure the AZ package is the type of proposal he was facing, and he correctly decided it was too much. So he makes a mild overpay to get an elite young RP to avoid a massive prospect overpay for a SP and uses the team's money to fix that problem instead. Shrewd.

This deal and Marlins rumors also strongly suggest that Fernandez ain't walking through that door anytime soon.
 

grimshaw

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I am completely baffled about why the value of the young starting pitching market has exponentially increased. How did Shelby Miller's value go from a year of Jason Heyward (I know other pieces were involved, but not a true impact prospect) to whatever it is the D-Backs pooped up.

Now the asking price for someone like Fernandez is astronomicaI. I could get it if this was the steroid era, or if Fernandez was a guy with a 200 ERA+ and a completely peerless freak of nature. But he's just a really young, really great starting pitcher who has already broken down once, pitches in a division with noodle bats and apparently also has some 'tude issues in the clubhouse.

Of course all this talk from the Marlins side about wanting multiple uber prospects could be a result of the D-Backs idiocy, and I'm really hoping that's the case, and this isn't the new market. Part of me also thinks, this is basically LaRussa trolling us by drafting Stanford guys.
 
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johnnywayback

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So can we revisit all those posts saying DD got taken in the Kimbrel deal? That he should have just tweaked the package to get a SP instead? I'm sure the AZ package is the type of proposal he was facing, and he correctly decided it was too much. So he makes a mild overpay to get an elite young RP to avoid a massive prospect overpay for a SP and uses the team's money to fix that problem instead. Shrewd..
Well, I still think the Kimbrel trade was more than a mild overpay, but I am happy to retract, in full, my energetic condemnation of it. Looks like, despite what history and logic would have suggested, it's even more of a seller's market for starting pitching in trades than it is in free agency. That made it wise to get our ace via free agency, and that, in turn, made it wise to sell off Margot and Guerra for the best available player rather than risk their value taking a nosedive when people figured out Guerra can't really hit and Margot's ceiling is Ender Inciarte.

I was really down on that deal because, objectively, it was a MASSIVE overpay for a luxury item. And I still think it was. But everything that's happened since -- the Price signing, the Miley trade, this nonsense, even the Chapman story -- makes me trust more in the overall plan that included the Kimbrel trade. So, yes, I'll eat some crow.
 

DeadlySplitter

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http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article48723310.html

According to a major-league source, the Marlins discussed a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks in which they would have given up Fernandez for a five-player haul that included pitcher Patrick Corbin and top shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson — last year’s overall No.1 draft pick.

The Marlins would have also received outfielder Ender Inciarate, pitcher Aaron Blair and infielder Brandon Drury in the proposed blockbuster. But the deal collapsed Tuesday when the Diamondbacks acquired pitcher Shelby Miller from the Braves.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I am completely baffled about why the value of the young starting pitching market has exponentially increased. How did Shelby Miller's value go from a year of Jason Heyward (I know other pieces were involved, but not a true impact prospect) to whatever it is the D-Backs pooped up.

Now the asking price for someone like Fernandez is astronomicaI. I could get it if this was the steroid era, or if Fernandez was a guy with a 200 ERA+ and a completely peerless freak of nature. But he's just a really young, really great starting pitcher who has already broken down once, pitches in a division with noodle bats and apparently also has some 'tude issues in the clubhouse.

Of course all this talk from the Marlins side about wanting multiple uber prospects could be a result of the D-Backs idiocy, and I'm really hoping that's the case, and this isn't the new market. Part of me also thinks, this is basically LaRussa trolling us by drafting Stanford guys.
The asking price for Fernandez comes down to one simple thing: the Marlins don't want to trade him. Period. Nothing really to do with the market since they're not shopping him around the way the Braves did with Miller. Teams are inquiring and rather than just saying no, they're throwing out an outrageous demand and seeing if they can con someone into a gross and desperate overpay. Before the Miller trade, I'd have said there's no way anyone is stupid enough to give the Marlins what they want. After the Miller trade, who knows? But really, I don't think the Miller trade impacts the Fernandez situation one iota. The price was reportedly high before the Miller trade even went down.

When the time comes that Fernandez really is available and the Marlins are motivated to move him, the asking price will come down.
 

Rovin Romine

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I'm just amazed at the Miller trade.

A bit tongue in cheek, but two things:
1) is there anything the Diamondbacks might need from us?
2) should DD get on the phone and see if any of those runner-up clubs want to back up the truck for Kelly? If he netted us a prospect haul, I'd be OK with running Owens out there next year.