Will the Celts Make the Playoffs?

Will the Celtics Make the Playoffs?

  • Yes

    Votes: 54 71.1%
  • No

    Votes: 22 28.9%

  • Total voters
    76

Ed Hillel

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Chicago is fighting Toronto for seeding, so hopefully the Bulls can clinch it for us tonight, then we can hope for the 8.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ed Hillel said:
Chicago is fighting Toronto for seeding, so hopefully the Bulls can clinch it for us tonight, then we can hope for the 8.
Do teams really fight for seeding? They've played 80 games over 6 month. At best you're getting a robotic performance at worst they are sitting/limiting Rose, Noah, and Butler.
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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I can't believe we are talking about the Celtics (last year's 4th worst team) being the #7 seed *after trading Rondo*, while the Bruins (last year's President's Trophy-winning team) miss the playoffs entirely.  
 
The mind boggles.
 

Ed Hillel

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HomeRunBaker said:
Do teams really fight for seeding? They've played 80 games over 6 month. At best you're getting a robotic performance at worst they are sitting/limiting Rose, Noah, and Butler.
 
So we're fine anyway, since the Raptors should be in the same boat, I assume?
 

bowiac

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ivanvamp said:
I can't believe we are talking about the Celtics (last year's 4th worst team) being the #7 seed *after trading Rondo*, while the Bruins (last year's President's Trophy-winning team) miss the playoffs entirely.  
 
The mind boggles.
I'm gonna point out this is partially a victory for RPM and its ilk, which rated Rondo as a below average player, and Jeff Green as one of the worst big-minutes players in the league at the time they were traded. (Also, a minor win for my earlier post, projecting the Celtics for 42 wins and the 7-seed in mid-November, though there's obviously a lot of misses on that post too).
 

ALiveH

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Great & very out-of-consensus call bow.  Anyone who doesn't consider this season a success & validation of Brad Stevens has a big old dump in their pants.  Big picture - this is a team that won 25 games last year and didn't add any significant talent since (plus all the roster turnover could have caused massive dysfunction).  They're going to improve by 13-15 games which is a huge one-year jump.  How far can they go in the playoffs - given how they've been playing, a huge 1st round upset is possible (though not probable).  If the C's can spin their assets for some real talent & hold onto Brad, could be looking at a contender in a couple years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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bowiac said:
I'm gonna point out this is partially a victory for RPM and its ilk, which rated Rondo as a below average player, and Jeff Green as one of the worst big-minutes players in the league at the time they were traded.
So RPM passes the eye test is what you're saying? :)

[starting trouble]
 

scottyno

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If the Nets lose tonight the Cs should be resting guys the next 2 games.  The Pacers lose the tiebreaker to the Nets so they have to go all out in both games left and could push the Cs back to a preferable 8 seed.
 

sime

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jmcc5400 said:
Bulls up 9.  T minus 22 minutes until playoffs. 
22 minutes later and they're up 13. Still 3+ min in the 3rd tho. Should know for sure around 10...
 

jmcc5400

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Bulls by 22.  One quarter to go.  Mirotic with back to back 3s putting Brooklyn on the ropes. 
 

sime

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Hmmm. End of the 3rd and bulls up 22, somehow. Looking good for the C's!!
 

jmcc5400

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25-16 over the last half-season.    They'll be a tougher out than anticipated. 
 

ivanvamp

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Jul 18, 2005
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It would be a significant achievement if they could even take 2 games from Cleveland.  But it seems the Cavs have been playing with seeding in mind, hoping to play the Celtics.  
 
Be careful what you wish for, Cleveland.
 

DJnVa

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I don't really expect grabbing more than 1 if we get Cleveland, but it's going to be fun.
 
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JCizzle said:
Yes! Truly crazy this team has made the playoffs, I love it.
I love it. I wish I was in Las vegas in September and asked what odds they could give me on a 2 result parlay of the Bruins not making it and the Celtics making it.
 
The Jeff Green move was just gold.
 
go Celtics!
 

Koufax

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Beating Cleveland once will be a miracle.  But so was making the playoffs.  Regardless of what happens from here, this season has been a tremendous success. 
 

sime

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It really will be a miracle to win a game or 2 but having Stevens on our side to game plan gives one hope.

Really wish I took the over on wins at the beginning of the year like I wanted to!
 

teddykgb

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I'm really excited to see Stevens, a film junkie, coaching in the NBA playoffs.  Realistically, he's never really had this kind of feedback loop of a 7 game series where he can make adjustments day to day against the same team.  Like everyone, I think it will be incredibly hard for them to win even 2 games but I think it's awesome for the coach and awesome for the team to get this experience now.
 
From a team perspective, playoff basketball is so different.  Lebron gets most calls in the regular season, but he's going to get every call and more in a playoff series.  How do you defend? Where does your intensity level need to be? How do you adapt to a changing game and survive the runs?  I was not confident they could handle the remaining schedule but I'm honestly ecstatic they got in.  I think this type of experience will pay dividends down the line for both the players and the coach.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Celtics have the third best record in the NBA over the past 2-3 months. It would not take a "miracle" for them to take a series with anyone to 5 games. Them winning a 7-game series is another story, but let's give them some credit.
 

swingin val

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Ed Hillel said:
The Celtics have the third best record in the NBA over the past 2-3 months. It would not take a "miracle" for them to take a series with anyone to 5 games. Them winning a 7-game series is another story, but let's give them some credit.
Cue nighthob and his bench vs starters rant :)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm really excited to see Stevens, a film junkie, coaching in the NBA playoffs.  Realistically, he's never really had this kind of feedback loop of a 7 game series where he can make adjustments day to day against the same team.  Like everyone, I think it will be incredibly hard for them to win even 2 games but I think it's awesome for the coach and awesome for the team to get this experience now.
 
From a team perspective, playoff basketball is so different.  Lebron gets most calls in the regular season, but he's going to get every call and more in a playoff series.  How do you defend? Where does your intensity level need to be? How do you adapt to a changing game and survive the runs?  I was not confident they could handle the remaining schedule but I'm honestly ecstatic they got in.  I think this type of experience will pay dividends down the line for both the players and the coach.
Agreed. It will be a great learning experience for Stevens and I'm excited to see what adjustments he makes over the course of a series.

Congrats to all!
 

radsoxfan

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I agree this experience will be valuable for Stevens and the other young guys on the roster.  Cleveland has been on an incredible streak since Lebron came back and they made those trades though.
 
Barring a ton of luck or a complete mutiny against Blatt, hard to see how this goes more than 5.  Game 3 I'd probably give them a decent shot…. all the rest, not so much. 
 

jmcc5400

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And maybe, just maybe, Kevin Love sees a young team on the come with a brilliant coach on the opposite bench and starts thinking about how that coach might allow him to flourish...
 

nighthob

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swingin val said:
Cue nighthob and his bench vs starters rant :)
In March Boston's bench scoring differential (per game) was +14, the starters were -13. You do the math. ;)
 

nighthob

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Hoopstats.com is your friend. The determination is solely by the starters/non-starters on any given night. And the reality of there being three starters on the floor throughout the playoffs (for opponents, anyway) is the problem. Boston has no high priced players outside of Gerald Wallace (and he's on a 60% max deal), making it easier to build a 12 man bench. Good teams have all stars soaking up most of the cap space, so it's harder for them to match the depth. It's a real advantage during the regular season. During the playoffs not so much.
 

luckiestman

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Bradley shuts down Kyrie, Love Stinks, Lebron left his talent in SoBe. Celts in 7
 

nighthob

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Rudy Pemberton said:
So much of that is driven by Thomas, though- he doesn't start but leads the team in scoring and still plays a ton of minutes. It's not as if the C's rotation is that deep or whatever and that they are winning that way. Sure they will be a huge underdog but it's because they will be playing better teams, not that some bench advantage is suddenly out the meow when the playoffs start and teams shorten their rotations.
He doesn't start because he can be a defensive liability in the starting five and that's mitigated by having him come off the bench. Again, it's a lot different when Kyrie Irving is playing 40 minutes a night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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1. I agree with nighthob on both the starter/bench difference of regular season vs playoffs as well as Isaiah playing with the second unit to hide him defensively.

2. This will also be the first time a coach is gameplanning against Brad and the Celtics in a series which is more likely to expose our flaws than Brad exposing those of the superior team.

3. We'll have our moments of both energy and being clearly out of our league in this series. As Rad says, Game 3 should be loud and a chance to steal one if all goes perfect. Likely a sweep however.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Congrats to the C's.  What weird and fun regular season.  Getting the young guys playoff experience is nothing but a positive for the franchise, draft pick be damned.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Such a downer, HRB.
Meh how so? This has been fun watching this team overachieve but surely you can't believe this is any more of a long-term indication of success than last year when Charlitte and the Nets were among the best second half records, can you?

Teams like this pop up every year when opponents downplay them only to be surprised by an overachieving team meshing. I'm glad it was us this year but you have to keep this in perspective when discussing the big picture.
 

Red Averages

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Seems like it's more fun to sit back and watch without expectations than to Black Cloud the experience.  I'm looking forward to the series, they are in a no lose spot.
 

swingin val

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Too annoying to look it up on my phone, but I remember seeing that there is pretty much at least 1 first round sweep every year in the NBA playoffs.

If we were betting folks, I couldn't imagine a "better" bet than the Celts to be that team this year.
 

JCizzle

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swingin val said:
Too annoying to look it up on my phone, but I remember seeing that there is pretty much at least 1 first round sweep every year in the NBA playoffs.

If we were betting folks, I couldn't imagine a "better" bet than the Celts to be that team this year.
Yeah, I agree they're the most likely team to get swept. You're going to have IT as the late game option against LeBron and Kyrie. IT has been getting calls at a good rate, but I don't think the refs will be putting him on the line with a minute left driving against LBJ. They just have a massive advantage late in games, in my opinion.

There's only so much you can do against LeBron. Who is our best option to match him, Jae? Smart? Turner will get abused.

At least against Atlanta we could have removed the superstar treatment impact to some degree.
 

nighthob

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They don't have any choice with Turner, either he or Lil Zeke need to be in the game at all times.
 

CreightonGubanich

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From a matchup standpoint, Crowder's their best bet to defend Lebron, and Cleveland has a big backcourt. Stevens might be better off bringing Marcus Smart off the bench and matching Bradley on Irving, Turner on Smith, and Crowder on Lebron. I doubt he goes away from what's been working though. 
 
Brandon Bass always defends LeBron better than he has any right to, but I don't think they can risk putting Turner on Love.
 

bowiac

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Depending how the West shakes out, I think OKC is probably a better bet to get swept. Maybe regardless of how the West shakes out honestly. 
 

Cellar-Door

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nighthob said:
I mean I'm hoping that I'm not going to be seeing Phil Pressey initiating the offense in the playoffs.
Could always sink or swim with Smart. Kyrie is such a poor man defender still that it might work.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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CreightonGubanich said:
 
but I don't think they can risk putting Turner on Love.
 
Why?  Do you think CLE's going to start posting up Love on Turner for multiple possessions in a row?  And even if they did, wouldn't you rather see that than some of the other matchups?
 

HomeRunBaker

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
Why?  Do you think CLE's going to start posting up Love on Turner for multiple possessions in a row?  And even if they did, wouldn't you rather see that than some of the other matchups?
I agree with this. Listen, we can't play this series straight up and expect to get anything out of it. It's these type of higher risk unconventional matchups that we must try and dictate. Having a less than thrilled Love posting up is something i want us forcing rather than Kyrie using a screen to create a matchup vs Olynyk or LeBron creating a matchup against anyone.
 

CreightonGubanich

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
Why?  Do you think CLE's going to start posting up Love on Turner for multiple possessions in a row?  And even if they did, wouldn't you rather see that than some of the other matchups?
 
If we defended Love with Evan Turner, yes, I think they would do that. And it's a terrible matchup for the Celtics -- Love is one of the top players in the league in post up efficiency. David Blatt may be marginalizing Love by making him a glorified stretch four, but even he's smart enough to let Love go to work on the block if we're going to defend him one-on-one with Evan Turner.
 
Edit: Seriously, where did this idea that Kevin Love is a bad or reluctant post player come from? That's not directed at the poster above, I've seen it a lot recently. Just because he shoots threes doesn't make him Ryan Anderson. Love is a fantastic post player, and his entire gripe with Blatt's system is that he's expected to just spot up outside the three point line instead of posting up. 
 

HomeRunBaker

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CreightonGubanich said:
 
If we defended Love with Evan Turner, yes, I think they would do that. And it's a terrible matchup for the Celtics -- Love is one of the top players in the league in post up efficiency. David Blatt may be marginalizing Love by making him a glorified stretch four, but even he's smart enough to let Love go to work on the block if we're going to defend him one-on-one with Evan Turner.
 
Edit: Seriously, where did this idea that Kevin Love is a bad or reluctant post player come from? That's not directed at the poster above, I've seen it a lot recently. Just because he shoots threes doesn't make him Ryan Anderson. Love is a fantastic post player, and his entire gripe with Blatt's system is that he's expected to just spot up outside the three point line instead of posting up. 
It began two years ago and was discussed in-depth on another board at the time. I don't have the specific numbers handy but it showed that his interior efficiency took a severe hit in the '12-'13 season which resulted in Love taking a career high perimeter shots in '13-'14 which mirrors this seasons numbers. The difference is that this year it's being talked about more however per 82games Love took 68% of his FGA as jump shots compared to 66% the year prior when he's been in the mid-50% for his career up to that point.

Love isn't the same low post threat he was 3-4 years ago is what I'm getting at.
 

CreightonGubanich

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HomeRunBaker said:
It began two years ago and was discussed in-depth on another board at the time. I don't have the specific numbers handy but it showed that his interior efficiency took a severe hit in the '12-'13 season which resulted in Love taking a career high perimeter shots in '13-'14 which mirrors this seasons numbers. The difference is that this year it's being talked about more however per 82games Love took 68% of his FGA as jump shots compared to 66% the year prior when he's been in the mid-50% for his career up to that point.

Love isn't the same low post threat he was 3-4 years ago is what I'm getting at.
 
He's not the same threat because he's not getting the same opportunities. Blatt and Cleveland like to use him as a three point shooter, but that's more about floor spacing than it is about Love's effectiveness as a post player. Per Synergy, as of January 30, Love was leading the NBA in points per post-up possession among players with 4 or more attempts per game. I don't know where that number has gone since then, as Synergy's numbers are subscription only, but I feel pretty safe in concluding that Love on Turner is not a matchup the Celtics should be trying to create. It's a moot point anyway, as Bass isn't likely going to defend LeBron for any significant duration.
 
Edit: NBA.com has post-up efficiency stats. Love is tied for second in the NBA among players with 200+ post up possessions:
 
http://stats.nba.com/playtype/#!/post-up/?dir=1&sort=PPP&CF=Poss*GE*200
 

The Social Chair

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Stopping post-play isn't the Celtics biggest weakness on defense. It's stopping penetration to the basket. Lebron and Kyrie should have a field day driving to the basket. 
 

HomeRunBaker

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CreightonGubanich said:
 
He's not the same threat because he's not getting the same opportunities. Blatt and Cleveland like to use him as a three point shooter, but that's more about floor spacing than it is about Love's effectiveness as a post player. Per Synergy, as of January 30, Love was leading the NBA in points per post-up possession among players with 4 or more attempts per game. I don't know where that number has gone since then, as Synergy's numbers are subscription only, but I feel pretty safe in concluding that Love on Turner is not a matchup the Celtics should be trying to create. It's a moot point anyway, as Bass isn't likely going to defend LeBron for any significant duration.
 
Edit: NBA.com has post-up efficiency stats. Love is tied for second in the NBA among players with 200+ post up possessions:
 
http://stats.nba.com/playtype/#!/post-up/?dir=1&sort=PPP&CF=Poss*GE*200
Yes of course he is when you pick and choose a small handful of opportunities per game. That's like saying DeAndre Jordan is a great interior scorer because he's so efficient with his 70% FG%. Love also benefits by defenses focusing on LeBron and Kyrie so when he does receive his opportunities he is catching the defense off guard.

As I pointed out, Love took nearly as many interior shots last season in Minnesota without Blatt. He's lost some lift from his early twenties and wasn't athletic to begin with.