If they can't beat the Bucks at home, the only way they'll make the playoffs is by everyone else sucking worse. I'm rooting for the number 9 pick a at.this point.
Will the Celts Make the Playoffs?
- Thread starter wilked
- Start date
That game was bullshit. The officiating, well, you will not see worse. I am not even saying the officials cost the celtics the game, I am saying that game gives you garbage data to evaluate because the officials got more calls wrong than they got rightchilidawg said:
Raptors twice and Cavs twice in the last 6, I don't see them making it. The heat have a much easier schedule.chilidawg said:
Raptors on the 2nd night of a back to back they may be sitting a lot of guys tonight.Cellar-Door said:
If they can beat the Raptors on the road they've got a solid chance at a good run.chilidawg said:
Clearly I can't get a handle on how good this team actually is.
There are 5 teams each at least 6 games below .500 "fighting" for 2 playoff spots. It's very likely the result of their games will be a loss unlike a traditional playoff race where .500 play leaves you on the outside looking in. Here, .500 play gives you a decent chance to get in!!chilidawg said:
It's fun from a "NBA games down the stretch have meaning" perspective but yikes these teams each have major major holes in them.
I think Indiana goes on a tear strolls into 7th with George back and looking reasonably healthy. Brooklyn drops out because they have a tough schedule and play poorly against teams over .500. Miami has lost 7 of 9... That leaves Charlotte and the Celtics for #8. My guess is Cleveland will rest some people by the time we play them because they will have #2 locked up. I am betting on the C's getting in (and then winning 0-2 games).
If Brooklyn loses at home to Portland tonight, and Charlotte beats Miami tomorrow, the C's are sitting pretty. If those two outcomes materialize, I've got to believe the Celtics will find their way to the playoffs.
Charlotte looks to be shutting Jefferson and Kidd-Gilchrist down for the year. Seems they are as excited about the 8th seed race as I am.
If the season ended today we'd play Atlanta, I'd be curious to hear the opinion of others on how we'd do. I view them as a balanced team who is complimenting each other very well. They are out-performing their pythag by 5 games, they have 57 wins compared to a projected 52. I think they are certainly more talented than we are but I think they are the ideal matchup for Stevens to show his coaching strengths. A quick look at NBA team tracking and it seems they are the poster-child for advanced analytics basketball. Offensively they drive the basketball, pass very well and have a ton of catch and shoot shots/points.
Here are their relevant offensive stats:
Which gets me back to Stevens, I would imagine that the drive or pull-up shot and who does the driving stats would jump off at the page at him. Then I dont think many coaches are better at him than dissecting exactly how a team does what it does and finding the nuances of how to stop them. In the end, I still think we are very much long shots to win that series, but I'd be surprised if we dont bring them to game 6 at which point things would become very, very interesting.
Here are their relevant offensive stats:
- 5th in the league at touches per game with 442.8
- 2nd in points created by assists per 48 with 60.8
- 3rd in points per 48 on drives with 18.8
- 1st in catch and shoot points per game with 34.3
- 2nd to last in pull-up shots points per game with 10.7
Which gets me back to Stevens, I would imagine that the drive or pull-up shot and who does the driving stats would jump off at the page at him. Then I dont think many coaches are better at him than dissecting exactly how a team does what it does and finding the nuances of how to stop them. In the end, I still think we are very much long shots to win that series, but I'd be surprised if we dont bring them to game 6 at which point things would become very, very interesting.
BigSoxFan said:
Yeah, Brooklyn's win last night did us no favors. It's pretty hard to see a way for the Celtics to make it without playing some fantastic basketball the rest of the way. That Milwaukee loss really hurt, even if it was followed up by a great win the next night.
During the regular season Boston can exploit its 12 sixth men by walloping opposing benches when those coaches sub out en masse. That doesn't happen during the playoffs, so those wins go away. If Boston won two games it would be an upset akin to the Pirates beating the Yankees in 1960.wutang112878 said:
So it seems its a landslide of 'Celts have no chance'. But let me ask a different question: What do you think would happen to Atlantas offense if they couldnt drive to the basket?
Is Silver going to implement perimeter defense rule changes prior to the tournament beginning? The one guard one our roster with a chance of keeping the quickness of Teague andwutang112878 said:
Schroeder in front of them is Pressey and he won't likely be playing. Aside from dribble penetration they move the ball extremely well at all positions and have tremendous spacing which opens up Korver and Carroll.
We'd have a shot in Game 3 coming home I suppose but we are really overmatched in personnel.
HomeRunBaker said:
You don't think Smart/Bradley could D up Teague/Schroeder? (no snark/honest question) I happen to think the Celts, minus IT - who I love but is too small to play good defense - have some of the best defensive guard play in the league.
Is Atlanta too quick off the dribble for us?
edit: format
It's almost impossible to consistently prevent penetration by good guards.
However even if the Celtics started off with great D from Smart and Bradley Atlanta would just post up Horford on Zeller, and attack Turner whenever he gets on the court. They have too many weapons and move the ball exceptionally well in and out of the post.
However even if the Celtics started off with great D from Smart and Bradley Atlanta would just post up Horford on Zeller, and attack Turner whenever he gets on the court. They have too many weapons and move the ball exceptionally well in and out of the post.
And Turner would be on the court a lot. But primarily Horford is just one of those under radar top 12 guys that everyone ignores because his numbers aren't gaudy. But he's the complete package at the 4/5. There are just no exploitable holes in his game (aside from maybe height, but Boston doesn't have The Boogieman to attack with) and he's good enough at everything to exploit whoever you throw at him.Cellar-Door said:
Bradley isn't smart (no pun) enough as he applies too much pressure outside 30 feet from the hoop they gets him in foul trouble. Avery hasn't yet adjusted to the NBA rules in this regard which is kinda concerning at this point. Smart doesn't have the quickness to keep the blurs like Teague in front of him as he's most effective defending wings.Erik Hanson's Hook said:
The other thing is that you are going to need Isaiah's scoring on the floor which presents problems on the defensive end.
0 for 2 on those. They'll have to play really well to make the playoffs, which is as it should be.JohnnyTheBone said:
Nate Silver's 538 Blog now favors the Celtics to make the playoffs, placing the odds at 57%. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-power-ratings-and-playoff-odds-celtics-and-nets-up-heat-and-pacers-down/
By contrast, Hollinger's ratings project that the Celtics will be on the outside looking in, placing their playoff odds at 37.8%. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
This truly is a toss-up. I find it easier to enjoy the playoff push, knowing that if the team comes up short, the consolation prize is a slightly better draft position and the possibility of lottery night magic. Go Celts!
By contrast, Hollinger's ratings project that the Celtics will be on the outside looking in, placing their playoff odds at 37.8%. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
This truly is a toss-up. I find it easier to enjoy the playoff push, knowing that if the team comes up short, the consolation prize is a slightly better draft position and the possibility of lottery night magic. Go Celts!
fenwaypa'k said:
This is a test of character. Others would say "Oh no, if they miss the playoffs, what a disaster! And if they make the playoffs and lose that lottery ticket, what a disaster! When will God stop punishing me in this way?"
wilked said:
It is of course, not an exact correlation, but current odds to win the NBA Championship have the Celtics as the 2nd longest of any team still mathematically alive. Only Charlotte has worse (1000-1) odds.
Both Milwaukee and Indiana are listed at 200 to 1, while the Celtics are 300 to 1. Miami and Brooklyn are both 150-1.
So currently, you are likely to be correct.
Nets lose a squeaker to the Hawks. C's currently the 7 seed. Don't really want the 7 seed, but I'll take improving the playoff chances right now.
Clevo locked into the 2 seed with their win tonight. Maybe Lebron sits one (or both) of these games against us coming up. That would go A LONG WAY to helping secure a playoff spot if we won one of these Clevo games.
Final 4 games do not look kind to the green.
@Clevo/Clevo/Toronto/@Bucks
Final 4 games do not look kind to the green.
@Clevo/Clevo/Toronto/@Bucks
remaining schedules:
Bucks: at Knicks, vs. Nets, at 76ers, vs. Celtics
Boston: at Cavs, vs. Cavs, vs. Raptors, at Bucks
Brooklyn: vs. Wizards, at Bucks, vs. Bulls, vs. Magic
Indiana: at Pistons, vs. Thunder, vs. Wizards, at Grizzlies
Miami: vs. Bulls, vs. Raptors, vs. Magic, at 76ers
Looks pretty unlikely that anyone is going to leap over the Bucks; hopefully they have nothing to play for in game 82.
The IND - OK game looks like a really interesting game with lots of playoff implications.
Bucks: at Knicks, vs. Nets, at 76ers, vs. Celtics
Boston: at Cavs, vs. Cavs, vs. Raptors, at Bucks
Brooklyn: vs. Wizards, at Bucks, vs. Bulls, vs. Magic
Indiana: at Pistons, vs. Thunder, vs. Wizards, at Grizzlies
Miami: vs. Bulls, vs. Raptors, vs. Magic, at 76ers
Looks pretty unlikely that anyone is going to leap over the Bucks; hopefully they have nothing to play for in game 82.
The IND - OK game looks like a really interesting game with lots of playoff implications.
Huge loss for Miami tonight. I feared them running the table with 3 in a row at home and Philly on the road.
How would 7 through 10 look if Boston, Brooklyn, Indiana and Miami all finish at 38-44?
How would 7 through 10 look if Boston, Brooklyn, Indiana and Miami all finish at 38-44?
shawnrbu said:
Multi-team tiebreakers:
Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied:
BOS vs. BRK 3-1
BOS vs. IND 3-1
BOS vs. MIA 1-3
BRK vs. IND 2-1
BRK vs. MIA 0-4
IND vs. MIA 3-1
7th spot (among MIA/BOS/IND/BRK) - MIA 8-4, BOS 7-5, IND 5-6, BRK 3-8 (MIA WINS TIEBREAKER FOR #7 SPOT)
8th spot (among BOS/IND/BRK) - BOS 6-2, BRK 3-4, IND 2-5 (BOS WINS TIEBREAKER FOR #8 SPOT)
Two-team playoff scenarios:
Better record in head-to-head games:
BOS wins head-to-head tiebreakers with IND/BRK and loses tiebreaker with MIA
IND wins head-to-head tiebreaker with MIA and loses tiebreaker with BOS/BRK
MIA wins head-to-head tiebreaker with BOS/BRK and loses tiebreaker with IND
BRK wins head-to-head tiebreaker with IND and loses tiebreaker with BOS/MIA
Should also point out that BOS would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to MIL, so BOS is effectively 3 games behind MIL with 4 to go, with MIL facing NY and PHI (both in tank mode). Realistically, BOS cannot get into the 6 spot.
Bottom line:
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 3-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins out, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 2-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least three more games and//or by IND or MIA if they win out.
If BOS goes 1-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK or MIA if either wins at least two more games, and/or by IND if it wins at least three more games.
If BOS goes 0-4 (36-46), they would be passed by BRK or MIA if either wins a game, by IND if it wins at least two more games.
Bottom line:
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 3-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins out, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 2-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least three more games and//or by IND or MIA if they win out.
If BOS goes 1-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK or MIA if either wins at least two more games, and/or by IND if it wins at least three more games.
If BOS goes 0-4 (36-46), they would be passed by BRK or MIA if either wins a game, by IND if it wins at least two more games.
At no time this year, especially post-Rondo, would I have ever imagined this sentence being written as such. Wow.amfox1 said:
Can you also please predict the Celtics will lose in the first round? Many thanks!BigSoxFan said:
hob, I respect the piss out of your basketball knowledge, but I respectfully disagree. It ain't gonna be no cakewalk. That was Boston's sixth straight road win, snapping the Cavs 18-game home winning streak. Boston has the 3rd best record in the NBA since the All-Star break. Brad Stevens is obviously a great coach that plays match-ups extremely well and is maximizing the talent on his roster. The Cavs can go ahead and tank for Boston if they wish, all I'm saying is there's easier teams to f*ck with than the Celtics.nighthob said:
Updated for Friday's games:
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 2-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins out, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 1-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least two more games and/or by IND or MIA if they win out.
If BOS goes 0-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least one more game, and/or by IND or MIA if they win at least two more games.
MIA hosts TOR on Sat. The other three teams (BRK @ MIL, BOS vs. CLE, IND vs. OKC) next play on Sun.
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 2-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins out, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 1-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least two more games and/or by IND or MIA if they win out.
If BOS goes 0-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least one more game, and/or by IND or MIA if they win at least two more games.
MIA hosts TOR on Sat. The other three teams (BRK @ MIL, BOS vs. CLE, IND vs. OKC) next play on Sun.
The Cavs want Boston in the seventh seed. It's why they didn't exactly give a lot of effort tonight, while sitting their second best player. On Sunday their two best players will be out. They don't want Indiana reaching #7 and giving them a first round dogfight. Cleveland won't be playing their starters 25 minutes in the playoffs. And you won't see the Cavs resting starters and playing 11 men in the playoffs.JohnnyTheBone said:
I fully expect the C's to lose a series with the Cavs. IMO, if they can win one game and keep two others close, then they've given the Cavs a series and played to my expectations. I think it is supremely doubtful that the C's will force this to go 6, let alone 7 games. The talent discrepancy between the Cavs and the C's is huge. Plus a good amount of the C's regular season success has come from bench play. Having IT, Sully, KO, Crowder coming off the bench is a huge advantage over other teams 6-9 guys during the regular season when teams are rolling out 10 man rotations and playing their starters around 30-35 orminutes. That said, it's less of an advantage in the playoffs when rotations are shortened and starters are getting closer to 40 minutes.
Heat still have a remote chance as they hold the H2H tiebreaker over Boston. Magic numbers are 3 over Brooklyn, 2 over Indiana, and 1 over Miami.
Cavs and Bucks are probably going to be resting their main guys in their games against us (Bucks to rest, Cavs to lose so they play us in the playoffs). Looking good.Tito's Pullover said:
Bad for Heat
Updated for Saturday's game:
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 2-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins their last three games, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 1-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least two more games and/or by IND if it wins its last three games.
If BOS goes 0-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least one more game, by IND if it wins at least two more games and/or MIA if it wins its last two games.
BRK (@ MIL), BOS (vs. CLE) and IND (vs. OKC) play on Sunday.
If BOS wins out (40-42), they are in the 7 spot.
If BOS goes 2-1 (39-43), they clinch the 7 spot unless BRK wins their last three games, in which case BOS clinches the 8 spot.
If BOS goes 1-2 (38-44), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least two more games and/or by IND if it wins its last three games.
If BOS goes 0-3 (37-45), they could be passed by BRK if it wins at least one more game, by IND if it wins at least two more games and/or MIA if it wins its last two games.
BRK (@ MIL), BOS (vs. CLE) and IND (vs. OKC) play on Sunday.
C's and Bucks are putting the finishing touches on blowouts of the Cavs and Nets. After these games, the Celtics need 1 win to clinch the 7th seed, and will make the playoffs unless they lose their last two games AND both the Nets and Pacers win out.