Will the Celts Make the Playoffs?

Jed Zeppelin · Mar 29, 2015

I like the Pacers to sneak in. They finish up with Nets, C's, Hornets, Heat, Knicks, Pistons, Thunder, Wiz, and Grizz. Just beat the Mavs tonight and might be getting a lift from Paul George.

Nets chances may depend on whether or not the Hawks rest starters in either of their two remaining matchups. I'm guessing no because they benefit directly from keeping them out. Nets should be pushing the hardest though. Lopez is playing like he wants to opt out.

Hornets schedule isn't bad but they're probably the worst of the four.

Koufax · Mar 29, 2015

Tonight's game was one of men against boys. The Clippers' roster is light years better than the celtics'.

Devizier · Mar 29, 2015

The basketball fan in me wants to see Paul George come back and crush the Hawks in the first round.

cardiacs · Mar 30, 2015

I don't think George is coming back for any meaningful minutes based on what I have been reading. The 8th spot is definitely up for grabs, but I think the Celtics will figure things out over the next 3 games and take it back. The Nyets have a nice streak going but they have had a really weak schedule besides CLE, and it seems like Lopez is the only thing keeping them in games. Milwaukee will hang on for a playoff spot but might drop down to 07th. MIami will stay in. Charlotte's fading.

I think the Celtics peaked too early. The put together a nice run for about 6 weeks and grabbed the eighth seed, then it seemed like they didn't know what to do after that. It's too bad if a few weeks ago they could have had a feasible shot to get to .500 because that would have been a good goal to focus on.

DJnVa · Mar 30, 2015

Devizier said:
The basketball fan in me wants to see Paul George come back and crush the Hawks in the first round.

Yeah? Just a general hatred of the Hawks? Because this team is pretty fun to watch.

teddykgb · Mar 30, 2015

cardiacs said:
I don't think George is coming back for any meaningful minutes based on what I have been reading. The 8th spot is definitely up for grabs, but I think the Celtics will figure things out over the next 3 games and take it back. The Nyets have a nice streak going but they have had a really weak schedule besides CLE, and it seems like Lopez is the only thing keeping them in games. Milwaukee will hang on for a playoff spot but might drop down to 07th. MIami will stay in. Charlotte's fading.

I think the Celtics peaked too early. The put together a nice run for about 6 weeks and grabbed the eighth seed, then it seemed like they didn't know what to do after that. It's too bad if a few weeks ago they could have had a feasible shot to get to .500 because that would have been a good goal to focus on.

I think it was more the Thomas injury than anything else. The team at this point is going to be incredibly volatile to the swings of a team that is basically all outside shooting. As bad as they looked yesterday (and at times over the last few weeks), a lot of it was because the shots that were falling when they were ripping off wins just weren't falling. Thomas is really key to all of this because he's a really good shooter and he's a guy who can actually get to the rim if they are going a bit cold and take the pressure off of everyone.

Stevens has really impressed me with the way he's reworked the offense. Some of it is toward simplicity -- I doubt they could even try to use many of the sets/plays they worked on in training camp with all the roster turnover. But they were running a lot of motion concepts that have largely been scrapped in recent weeks to emphasize the strengths of the remaining roster, which has meant a ton of pick and roll and double stack offense. This makes a ton of sense because Thomas is far and away their best weapon and he's definitely at his best executing this stuff with a small lineup and plenty of space open in the paint. He's basically got the option on every play to drive, shoot, or hit the roll and it's working pretty well for them. I know they won a few right after his injury, but that was mostly about making 3 pointers and Evan Turner managing to play a few decent games.

nighthob · Mar 30, 2015

The Clippers basically outlined the weakness of Boston's ten man bench, their starters get pounded by good teams, especially if opponents take care to not put their bench in en masse. Their reserves were +46 against LA's bench and they still lost by 13. This is one reason that I won't be upset if they just miss the postseason cut, because the opportunity to get shredded by the Hawks just isn't worth moving into the complete crapshoot section of the draft.

swingin val · Mar 30, 2015

nighthob said:
This is one reason that I won't be upset if they just miss the postseason cut, because the opportunity to get shredded by the Hawks just isn't worth moving into the complete crapshoot section of the draft.

Ahh. Nevermind

Jed Zeppelin · Mar 30, 2015

swingin val said:
They are in the crapshoot part of the draft either way, right? 8 seed in the east, and picking 15th, or the 9th seed in the east and picking 14th?

No, at least two West teams have better records and the Jazz probably will too.

swingin val · Mar 30, 2015

Jed Zeppelin said:
No, at least two West teams have better records and the Jazz probably will too.

Yea, figured that out right after I posted. Thanks though

nighthob · Mar 30, 2015

Anyway, the LA game was a playoff preview. The Hawks are going to have three starters on the floor at all times and Boston's bench isn't going to get the chance to pound Atlanta's. This is what happens to ten man benches in the playoffs. This was the track Houston was on until the luxury tax gifted them James Harden. It's also the track that the Bucks have been on for a decade and a half.

Jed Zeppelin · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
Anyway, the LA game was a playoff preview. The Hawks are going to have three starters on the floor at all times and Boston's bench isn't going to get the chance to pound Atlanta's. This is what happens to ten man benches in the playoffs. This was the track Houston was on until the luxury tax gifted them James Harden. It's also the track that the Bucks have been on for a decade and a half.

But those four games will instantly give everyone the experience necessary to take a big leap forward...or something.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 31, 2015

Anyway, the LA game was a playoff preview. The Hawks are going to have three starters on the floor at all times and Boston's bench isn't going to get the chance to pound Atlanta's. This is what happens to ten man benches in the playoffs. This was the track Houston was on until the luxury tax gifted them James Harden. It's also the track that the Bucks have been on for a decade and a half.

Until the Bucks got gifted their potential top-10 player. Would be interested in knowing whether DA seriously considered picking him.

Devizier · Mar 31, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Yeah? Just a general hatred of the Hawks? Because this team is pretty fun to watch.

Mostly just an enduring love of upsets, unexpected results, and some turnabout for the Hawks' near-upset of the 2008 Celtics.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Until the Bucks got gifted their potential top-10 player. Would be interested in knowing whether DA seriously considered picking him.

Probably given the resemblance between Parker and Pierce. Unfortunately Parker's now had two serious knee injuries, and if those impact his game permanently the Bucks might still be a card carrying member of the .500 club in five years time. Where the Celtics are is a very dangerous place to be as it's very easy to get stuck there.

Devizier said:
Mostly just an enduring love of upsets, unexpected results, and some turnabout for the Hawks' near-upset of the 2008 Celtics.

People keep repeating this, but it's still not true as the Hawks were never in any of the games played in the Garden. Boston won those four games in blowouts. I think the closest the Hawks got in Boston was a 20 point loss.

Devizier · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
People keep repeating this, but it's still not true as the Hawks were never in any of the games played in the Garden. Boston won those four games in blowouts. I think the closest the Hawks got in Boston was a 20 point loss.

My sphincter, circa 2008, says otherwise.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

I like the Greek Freak, but I'm not sure he ever becomes a top 10 player. But re-reading his response you're probably right about who he was referring to. I know a lot of people wanted him over Olynyk. Personally I wanted Dieng in that spot. If Boston had drafted either of them I'd be a lot more hopeful about their chances going forward.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 31, 2015

BigSoxFan said:
Gorgui Dieng and Nerlens Noel are both quietly having some pretty solid seasons for a couple of shitty teams. I would definitely take Dieng over Olynyk.

Dieng doesn't do a whole lot for me. He is the same player as he was in November and at 25. Noel otoh has impressed the hell out of me lately. I'lll copy/paste again from earlier this morning.....

I've watched the 76ers twice this week after hearing from a respected source about the leaps Nerlens Noel has been taking and I've gotta say this isn't the same player I saw earlier in the season. Confident on both ends of the floor, reacting rather than thinking (which was a big thing for him), fluid movements with the ball, and a much improved shooting touch. It seems to really be coming together for him.

His monthly splits:

7.6/5.7 - 49.2 eFG%
7.7/7.7 - 41.6
8.7/7.5 - 47.9
10.7/7.3 - 54.8
14.3/11.2 - 53.4

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

HomeRunBaker said:
Dieng doesn't do a whole lot for me. He is the same player as he was in November and at 25.

He does a lot more for me than Olynyk does...

The Social Chair · Mar 31, 2015

Zach Lowe went long on the C's today

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-playoff-problem-if-the-celtics-are-trying-to-rebuild-then-why-the-postseason-push/

Devizier · Mar 31, 2015

The Social Chair said:
Zach Lowe went long on the C's today

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-playoff-problem-if-the-celtics-are-trying-to-rebuild-then-why-the-postseason-push/

Good piece.

From that piece:

The Celtics discussed holding off on the Thomas deal to deflate their win total, but decided after some debate that they could lose out — or pay a higher price — if they waited until the summer. “Ideally, he might have been someone you pick up in the summer,” Ainge says. “But someone else might trade for him. You might be in a bidding war. You have to move while the iron is hot.”

What's unsaid here is that the conventional wisdom is that you tank while rebuilding. That's conventional wisdom for very good reason -- just look at the Deadspin piece on the Lakers' win on Sunday for a succinct summary -- but when most teams are following the same template, it creates an opening for teams willing to go the other way. The Thomas trade is an example of that. Hopefully other opportunities open along those lines. I'm not saying that the Celtics will get a Z-Bo to Memphis opportunity, but you never know.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
I like the Greek Freak, but I'm not sure he ever becomes a top 10 player. But re-reading his response you're probably right about who he was referring to. I know a lot of people wanted him over Olynyk. Personally I wanted Dieng in that spot. If Boston had drafted either of them I'd be a lot more hopeful about their chances going forward.

Yes, was referring to Giannis. Obviously he's not there yet but if he makes another jump, he will be close. See http://triangleoffense.com/features/the-giannis-effect-antetokounmpo-has-been-the-one-constant-for-milwaukee/.

My guess as to why DA took KO is that DA looks for guys who can produce/play. KO certainly could play in college and had the stats to prove it. However, if DA does look at production, perhaps the issue is that he will miss on projects like Giannis/Dieng. Not faulting Danny, but just could be a blind spot.

Cellar-Door · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
He does a lot more for me than Olynyk does...

Why out of curiosity?
He's a sieve on defense (considerably worse than Olynyk), and has an obscene turnover rate for his usage.
He's also 2 years older than Olynyk.

He's a classic try to block everything because he's terrible at positioning and rotation defender, and his offense is pretty mediocre.
Add that he's at least 25, and has little room to grow and I see no reason to prefer Dieng to Olynyk.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

Because Dieng's problems are fixable with coaching. Olynyk's are not. He's unquestionably been worse this year, but, not so coincidentally, he's been forced into the role of primary help defender in front of one of the worst defensive Cs this side of Olynyk. Away from Pekovic I think he'd be fine.

Jed Zeppelin · Mar 31, 2015

Devizier said:
Good piece.

From that piece:

The IT stuff is interesting. Tells me Ainge certainly won't be heartbroken if they miss the playoffs. I'm a little surprised they didn't hold him out the rest of the season for "precautionary reasons."

I think he's exactly right about striking the deal when he did. It really felt like a perfect storm with the Suns moving so many pieces around, and the close relationship with McDonough was crucial with a short amount of time to bring the deal together. In the offseason it becomes much easier to build a trade market for a player and more teams have money to burn.

If the C's end up picking 9th or 10th then that's probably worth trading the uncertainty of waiting to get IT this summer, as they were only in the 7th slot* when he made his first appearance and unlikely to drop farther even without him. Dropping to 15 would change the math a bit, but it all would depend on the chances of getting IT in the looser market of the offseason, which is impossible to know. Of course, if IT had signed here over the summer when Ainge made him his midnight call, we'd be sitting comfortably in the 7th spot and the whole discussion would be moot.

*I reserve the right to revoke this opinion if WCS goes at 7.

ifmanis5 · Mar 31, 2015

Lowe drew a few too many conclusions from that one Clippers suckfest. They've been a better team then they showed that day for most of the year. Finishing 8th rather than 9th won't substantially change the franchise's overall trajectory too much and looking at how Bradley, Smart and Olynyk respond to playoff basketball would be worth something in terms of player evaluation if nothing else. I did like his dig about Jeff Green as being a bad PF in small lineups, though. Been there, seen that.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 31, 2015

BigSoxFan said:
If Willie Cauley-Olajuwon goes #7, I will not be a happy camper. I really want to see him in a Celtics uniform. When's the last time we had a big as athletic as he is?

If Wilt Cauley-Russell goes #7 it will be due to his implication in a heroin bust.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

ifmanis5 said:
Lowe drew a few too many conclusions from that one Clippers suckfest. They've been a better team then they showed that day for most of the year. Finishing 8th rather than 9th won't substantially change the franchise's overall trajectory too much and looking at how Bradley, Smart and Olynyk respond to playoff basketball would be worth something in terms of player evaluation if nothing else. I did like his dig about Jeff Green as being a bad PF in small lineups, though. Been there, seen that.

The Clippers game is more reflective of the team's postseason chances than the regular season bench wins. You don't get bench victories in the playoffs when teams always have three starters on the floor.

Devizier · Mar 31, 2015

BigSoxFan said:
If Willie Cauley-Olajuwon goes #7, I will not be a happy camper. I really want to see him in a Celtics uniform. When's the last time we had a big as athletic as he is?

Kevin Garnett?

.
.
.

Tony Battie?

teddykgb · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
The Clippers game is more reflective of the team's postseason chances than the regular season bench wins. You don't get bench victories in the playoffs when teams always have three starters on the floor.

Is "bench wins" going to be the new "rim protector" in this forum? The old adage applies, you're never as good or bad as you look in a win or a loss. That was a tough game and the Celtics don't match up well with LAC, but the Celtics missed everything early and the Clippers built a lead -- this happens in the NBA.

What you're saying isn't entirely false -- the Celtics will suffer when teams shorten their benches in the playoffs. But having depth still allows the Celtics to rotate through different matchups trying to find something to exploit on any given night or series. They're going to be an incredible long shot against anyone if they get in, but I don't see a real need to claim that that is for any reason other than just not having the top tier talent it takes to knock off the best teams in the conference.

swingin val · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
The Clippers game is more reflective of the team's postseason chances than the regular season bench wins. You don't get bench victories in the playoffs when teams always have three starters on the floor.

I think we understood this point the first thirty times you mentioned it.

Cellar-Door · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
Because Dieng's problems are fixable with coaching. Olynyk's are not. He's unquestionably been worse this year, but, not so coincidentally, he's been forced into the role of primary help defender in front of one of the worst defensive Cs this side of Olynyk. Away from Pekovic I think he'd be fine.

What are you talking about?
Dieng has played almost all of his minutes at the 5 this year, and the team's defense improves when he leaves the court.
Dieng was a poor defender last year on a good defensive team who regressed, sure there is a chance coaching could improve it, but he's 25 years old, and he isn't a WCS type athletic marvel.

Also your assessment of Olynyk's defense isn't grounded in fact either, he's not good, but he's significantly improved from last year and miles better than Dieng has been either of his two years.

04101Seadog · Mar 31, 2015

While I think they could give the Hawks more than they could handle, currently half a game separates them from a top 10 pick, or a #15 pick. It's the difference between having a shot at the top, and ultimately getting a Kaminsky or Johnson instead of a Jerian Grant. From where we are to where we need to go I'm hoping they come oh so close to the playoffs but ultimately miss.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

teddykgb said:
Is "bench wins" going to be the new "rim protector" in this forum?

I'm not sure what that's supposed to mean. I've observed for a while now that Boston's strategy is to take advantage of the fact that they have more sixth men than any three NBA teams combined. During the regular season teams play 9-12 man rotations, especially the good ones, more concerned with resting their starters than anything else. Boston's starters (no matter who) are nearly always a net negative against good teams, but Boston's bench gets huge stretches against opponent's reserves and demolish them. You never get those stretches in the playoffs when teams shorten their rotation to 8 guys and there are nearly always three starters on the floor.

So, no, their "depth" won't allow them to beat good teams in the playoffs anymore than it allowed the pre-Harden Rockets to or it's allowed the Bucks to for the last decade and a half when they fought their way into the postseason. Bench mob teams have a long and storied history of playing .500 ball in the regular season, but postseason success has been pretty non-existant. No, Boston won't be the first. Their sixth men just aren't going to be as good when they're playing good teams starters for extended minutes.

Koufax · Mar 31, 2015

My near counter-argument to that argument is the 1989 Pistons, who had one star and a deep bench that ran rings around the competition in the playoffs because the other teams, playing 7 or 8 players, got gassed while Detroit kept rolling out fresh legs. The only fly in the ointment is that their Isiah was better than our Isaiah. And they did have Dennis Rodman, but that was before he became (or was recognized as being) great. And Bill Lambeer was a lot nastier than Kelly Olynyk. But my point is that bench depth can overcome a relatively untalented starting 5, even in the playoffs.

That said, if the Celtics make the playoffs, they will certainly last no more than 5 games. They just aren't good enough.

ifmanis5 · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
The Clippers game is more reflective of the team's postseason chances than the regular season bench wins. You don't get bench victories in the playoffs when teams always have three starters on the floor.

Not really. Only three teams in the East could beat the Clips in a series- Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland. Celtics have beaten 2 of those teams this year already.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

Cellar-Door said:
What are you talking about?
Dieng has played almost all of his minutes at the 5 this year, and the team's defense improves when he leaves the court.
Dieng was a poor defender last year on a good defensive team who regressed, sure there is a chance coaching could improve it, but he's 25 years old, and he isn't a WCS type athletic marvel.

Also your assessment of Olynyk's defense isn't grounded in fact either, he's not good, but he's significantly improved from last year and miles better than Dieng has been either of his two years.

And yet Boston's defense improves significantly when Olynyk leaves the floor. Ironically the miniscule differential for Dieng (.2 points/100 possessions) is proof of his defensive hopelessness while Olynyk's 1.7 point differential is somehow proof of superior defense. He sucks. As a big man off the bench you can hide him. But that's pretty much all he's ever going to be.

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

ifmanis5 said:
Not really. Only three teams in the East could beat the Clips in a series- Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland. Celtics have beaten 2 of those teams this year already.

It doesn't change the fact that when the playoffs start the better teams actually keep their starters on the court. Atlanta isn't going to say, "Hey, it's not fair to the Celtics if we always have three starters on the floor, so lets let the bench have some five or six minute stretches to keep Boston in the game."

nighthob · Mar 31, 2015

Koufax said:
My near counter-argument to that argument is the 1989 Pistons, who had one star and a deep bench that ran rings around the competition in the playoffs because the other teams, playing 7 or 8 players, got gassed while Detroit kept rolling out fresh legs. The only fly in the ointment is that their Isiah was better than our Isaiah. And they did have Dennis Rodman, but that was before he became (or was recognized as being) great. And Bill Lambeer was a lot nastier than Kelly Olynyk. But my point is that bench depth can overcome a relatively untalented starting 5, even in the playoffs.

That said, if the Celtics make the playoffs, they will certainly last no more than 5 games. They just aren't good enough.

The '89 Pistons weren't a bench mob team. They started two hall of famers in their backcourt, had a four time all star starting at C, and one of the greatest defensive players logging time at the F spots. They had good starters at every position, one oif the NBA's great sixth men, and enough depth that the starters were well rested come the postseason. That ain't Boston.

Koufax · Mar 31, 2015

+/- statistics:

Starters

Bradley -1.5
Bass -2.1
Turner -1.6
Smart +0.1
Zeller -2.2

Bench
IT +1.7
Crowder +0.3
Jerebko +1.5
Olynyk +3.5
Datome +3.5

Cellar-Door · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
And yet Boston's defense improves significantly when Olynyk leaves the floor. Ironically the miniscule differential for Dieng (.2 points/100 possessions) is proof of his defensive hopelessness while Olynyk's 1.7 point differential is somehow proof of superior defense. He sucks. As a big man off the bench you can hide him. But that's pretty much all he's ever going to be.

Where are you getting that?
Basketball reference on/offs has the Celtics at 103 pp100 given up with him on the floor and 106.4 with him off the floor.

Beyond that Olynyk holds opponents to lower shooting percentages at the rim and inside 5 feet by 6-8 percentage points. There is no data available that indicates Dieng is the better defender.
The on/off stats for Dieng were to point out that the idea that Dieng's failures are because of his teammates is inaccurate.

Edit- NBAwowy has slightly different numbers 104 on and 106.6 off, but overall in agreement that Olynyk is a defensive positive vs Zeller and Co.

Edit2- Yeah you must be using 82games, their numbers are all screwed up, they don't even have Thomas on the Celtics, and they're missing about 1/3rd of the season by the looks of it.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Mar 31, 2015

nighthob said:
And yet Boston's defense improves significantly when Olynyk leaves the floor. Ironically the miniscule differential for Dieng (.2 points/100 possessions) is proof of his defensive hopelessness while Olynyk's 1.7 point differential is somehow proof of superior defense. He sucks. As a big man off the bench you can hide him. But that's pretty much all he's ever going to be.

Interesting. You must be getting this from 82games. Maybe I am misunderstanding but why does BBall Ref have KO's "On" Opponent DRtg at 103.0 versus an "Off" Opponent DRtg at 106.4.. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/on-off/2015/.

Also, KO's offensive boost is so high (even 82games has it as 6.8 points per 100 possessions) that it more than makes up for any defensive deficiencies.

I think more of KO than you do; I also think because KO wasn't always a big man, he's going to get better as he figures out what he can do in the NBA.

In my lifetime · Apr 1, 2015

Today is a critical day in determining the 8th playoff spot:

Detroit (currently 12th, 29-45) @ Charlotte (currently 11th, 31-42)
Indiana (currently 10th, 32-42) @ Boston (currently 9th, 33-41)
Brooklyn (currently 8th, 33-40) @ Knicks

Personally, I am hoping for better draft position and for Charlotte to beat Detroit, Indiana win over the Celts and a Brooklyn win. That would put the Celtics a half game out of the #9 drafting slot.

CSteinhardt · Apr 3, 2015

The Celtics and Pacers seem to be the two best (least bad?) teams fighting for that last spot. I had assumed the Heat were far enough ahead to still make the playoffs, but now that they've dropped in the standings, I do think they're weaker than the others.

If the Celtics do make the playoffs, I'd really rather see them 8th than 7th -- I think they actually have a small chance against the Hawks, and are likely to at least take that series to 6 games or something, but I don't see any hope against the Cavs right now.

nighthob · Apr 3, 2015

They don't really have any hope against a good team in the playoffs. Atlanta won't be sending five reserves on to the floor in the playoffs. In the regular season their only interest is in reaching the playoffs rested and healthy. Come April they're going to be focused on dispatching opponents as rapidly as possible.

Koufax · Apr 3, 2015

Losing to the Hawks 4-1 would be a major upset.

Will the Celts Make the Playoffs?

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