Will Middlebrooks: Now or never
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If you think this roster is in more disarray than you have ever seen it, you're not paying attention.HomeRunBaker said:
If nothing else, it was in more disarray in 2012 after the trade. Then, the fact that we didn't know who was going to be starting where was because the players weren't in the organization.
Now, aside from the top starter and one of the left infield slots, the players are in the organization.
You're optimism is admirable, but we're two players away from contending? Really?Rasputin said:
So you think we have a top starting pitcher already within the organization, we're just not sure who he is yet?Rasputin said:
And you're comfortable with the current back of the bullpen, one of whom is a 39 year old free agent to be?Philip Jeff Frye said:
I was curious why Will Middlebrooks went from budding superstar in 2012, to a 3B version of Jonny Gomes in 2013, to a washout in 2013. What happened in 2012 that resulted in a breakout campaign? Were pitchers just not pitching him right? Did he have better eyesight? I mean, what the hell. In 2012 he hit .288/.325/.509 with 15 HRs in 286 late appearances. Those are great numbers, especially for a 23 year old. In a game where power is scarce, 30HR+ power is precious. Even when he was bad in 2013, he hit 17 home runs in 348 plate appearances, and hit .273/.328/.455 against left-handed pitching. Combined with above average defense, that is a great half a platoon, especially for $500,000.
And now in 2014 he seemingly has lost everything. That 30 HR power is gone. He doesn’t even have 15 HR power anymore. Through 175 plate appearances he has gone deep twice. The once lefty masher is now helpless against LHP: .196/.260/.261. To put that in perspective, Jackie Bradley, Jr. has better numbers against lefties.
I wanted to put some information out there to hopefully spark some discussion of why WMB has turned into a pumpkin. There is a ton to unpack here and this is a monster of a post, so bear with me.
Some initial digging found that he hit RHP well in 2012: .282/.312/.486. In 2013, his ability to get hits off RHP faded quickly: .206/.244/.412. However, he still kept his power stroke, with an ISO of .206, which was very similar to his 2012 ISO of .204. In 2013, he lost the ability to do both: .178/.248/.264. That is an ISO of .086. His BABIP over the last three years tracks his ability to hit RHP too. It was a great .335 in 2012, and then has been constant at .263 each of the last two seasons.
I then wanted to look at his plate discipline stats to see quickly if his reputation as a hacker has gotten worse:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks 2012-2014 ] PA BB% K% BB/K ISO BABIP 2012 267 4.5 24.5 0.190 0.221 0.335 2013 348 5.3 26.2 0.200 0.198 0.263 2014 175 6.2 30.3 0.210 0.087 0.263
Oddly enough, his walk rate has increased each of the past three years. A big negative on Middlebrooks was that he never walks, so the improvement is indicative of a better eye. He has made identifiable adjustments to his approach and should be commended for that. However, with more walks have come more strikeouts. Now he is striking out 30% of the time. If he qualified in PAs, that would make him worst as a third baseman, and 4th worst batter in all of baseball (in terms of K%), only behind Chris Davis, Chris Carter, and Adam Dunn (and tied with BJ Upton).
Next, I looked at his Pitch f/x zone stats:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks PitchFx Zone Stats ] O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% 2012 27.1 63.0 44.0 57.2 85.1 76.0 47.1 2013 30.4 62.5 46.2 55.6 84.0 74.5 49.3 2014 25.8 57.2 41.4 49.0 86.7 74.8 49.5
I was surprised to see here that his O-Swing% is the lowest of his career and nearly 4% lower than the league average. So, he’s not striking out by expanding the zone. Even pitchers are throwing him more strikes than in 2012 (and a smidge more than 2013). The big difference is than when he does swing outside the zone, he doesn’t make contact. His O-Contact% is 14.1% below league average and would be 8th worse in the league if he qualified in PAs. Even more perplexing is that he makes contact in the zone, sitting at about league average. Looking at the chart, he actually has a relatively patient approach. He doesn’t swing a lot, doesn’t expand the zone, and makes league average contact when the ball is put in the zone. The two issues I see is that he when he does swing at pitches outside the zone, he doesn’t make contact, and when he makes contact, the ball isn’t hit very well. Which leads to the batted ball chart:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks Batted Ball ] LD% GB% FB% IFB% HR/FB 2012 21.5 43.5 35.0 7.1 21.4 2013 20.2 40.7 39.1 5.1 17.2 2014 22.7 40.3 37.0 20.5 4.5
His LD rate is actually up this year, but nothing else stands out except for his infield pop up numbers, which have skyrocketed. One in five flyballs are infield pop-ups, which just reaffirms that he’s making poor contact. And unlike last year, those flyballs that he his hitting aren’t leaving the park. I think he’s been a bit unlucky, seeing that his line drive rate has stayed constant, but his BABIP and BA haven’t improved.
I looked at the BrooksBaseball pitch type groups (hard, breaking, offspeed) to see if any one group is giving him trouble this year to try and isolate the issue. The answer is clear: Hard pitches
2012
2013
2014
The collapse of his power against the fastball is striking, which probably explains the lower BABIP. Oddly enough when he makes contact on off speed pitches, he actually is hitting them well this year, however, he swings and misses at about 40% of off speed pitches (which makes me believe he's a mistake hitter on off speed pitches). I'm not really sure what can explain what happened to his ability to hit the fastball. But this season to me is the most troubling out of his last two. He was bad last year, but at least he hit lefties and hit for power. He can't do either this year, which makes him a largely useless player.
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But really, we have the profile of a hitter who has a decent plate approach, yet makes poor contact when he swings the bat. I know his vision has been a hot button issue, but he has also made mechanical adjustments
In July 2013 he made a batting stance adjustment while in AAA. He went from an open stance to a closed stance. The stated reason for the change was his inability to reach the outside pitch because he felt that when he stepped into the pitch he was still favoring the left side of the field (his spray charts don’t indicate this, but whatever). He felt that closing his stance made his stride parallel, which would result in using the middle of the field more.
Below are 4 gifts that illustrate the batting stance shift:
2012
Early 2013
Late 2013
2014
[SIZE=12pt]And here is a gif of his ISO in heat map charts (courtesy of BrooksBaseball)[/SIZE]
You can see that he didn’t really have problems driving the outside pitch at all. He’s always had issues with down and away (highlighted by Rev and myself here), but middle away is a sweet spot for him, open or closed stance. However, this year it is clear that he has lost all ability to hit the outside pitch. So the closed stance to hit outside pitch move has not worked as planned. It actually seemed like this shift has resulted in him losing ability to generate power from inside pitches. You do see an uptick in power to up and away, but that change has disappeared in 2014, so not sure if that was a sustainable improvement.
One last thing I noticed was how he was generating fly balls. Here is another gif heat map of fly balls per balls in play from 2012 to 2014. There is a clear trend – he used to be able to generate fly balls on low pitches, and now he can’t, only generating consistent fly balls on balls up and in, which probably explains the really high pop up rate.
There is a lot here to unpack, and like I said above, I just wanted to present some of the data for discussion. I'm not sure if corrective vision or contacts will change anything. But the 2014 version of WMB is so vastly inferior to the already questionable 2013 version that I'm not sure there is a whole lot worth salvaging here.
And now in 2014 he seemingly has lost everything. That 30 HR power is gone. He doesn’t even have 15 HR power anymore. Through 175 plate appearances he has gone deep twice. The once lefty masher is now helpless against LHP: .196/.260/.261. To put that in perspective, Jackie Bradley, Jr. has better numbers against lefties.
I wanted to put some information out there to hopefully spark some discussion of why WMB has turned into a pumpkin. There is a ton to unpack here and this is a monster of a post, so bear with me.
Some initial digging found that he hit RHP well in 2012: .282/.312/.486. In 2013, his ability to get hits off RHP faded quickly: .206/.244/.412. However, he still kept his power stroke, with an ISO of .206, which was very similar to his 2012 ISO of .204. In 2013, he lost the ability to do both: .178/.248/.264. That is an ISO of .086. His BABIP over the last three years tracks his ability to hit RHP too. It was a great .335 in 2012, and then has been constant at .263 each of the last two seasons.
I then wanted to look at his plate discipline stats to see quickly if his reputation as a hacker has gotten worse:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks 2012-2014 ]
Oddly enough, his walk rate has increased each of the past three years. A big negative on Middlebrooks was that he never walks, so the improvement is indicative of a better eye. He has made identifiable adjustments to his approach and should be commended for that. However, with more walks have come more strikeouts. Now he is striking out 30% of the time. If he qualified in PAs, that would make him worst as a third baseman, and 4th worst batter in all of baseball (in terms of K%), only behind Chris Davis, Chris Carter, and Adam Dunn (and tied with BJ Upton).
Next, I looked at his Pitch f/x zone stats:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks PitchFx Zone Stats ]
I was surprised to see here that his O-Swing% is the lowest of his career and nearly 4% lower than the league average. So, he’s not striking out by expanding the zone. Even pitchers are throwing him more strikes than in 2012 (and a smidge more than 2013). The big difference is than when he does swing outside the zone, he doesn’t make contact. His O-Contact% is 14.1% below league average and would be 8th worse in the league if he qualified in PAs. Even more perplexing is that he makes contact in the zone, sitting at about league average. Looking at the chart, he actually has a relatively patient approach. He doesn’t swing a lot, doesn’t expand the zone, and makes league average contact when the ball is put in the zone. The two issues I see is that he when he does swing at pitches outside the zone, he doesn’t make contact, and when he makes contact, the ball isn’t hit very well. Which leads to the batted ball chart:
[tablegrid= Will Middlebrooks Batted Ball ]
His LD rate is actually up this year, but nothing else stands out except for his infield pop up numbers, which have skyrocketed. One in five flyballs are infield pop-ups, which just reaffirms that he’s making poor contact. And unlike last year, those flyballs that he his hitting aren’t leaving the park. I think he’s been a bit unlucky, seeing that his line drive rate has stayed constant, but his BABIP and BA haven’t improved.
I looked at the BrooksBaseball pitch type groups (hard, breaking, offspeed) to see if any one group is giving him trouble this year to try and isolate the issue. The answer is clear: Hard pitches
2012
2013
2014
The collapse of his power against the fastball is striking, which probably explains the lower BABIP. Oddly enough when he makes contact on off speed pitches, he actually is hitting them well this year, however, he swings and misses at about 40% of off speed pitches (which makes me believe he's a mistake hitter on off speed pitches). I'm not really sure what can explain what happened to his ability to hit the fastball. But this season to me is the most troubling out of his last two. He was bad last year, but at least he hit lefties and hit for power. He can't do either this year, which makes him a largely useless player.
----------------------
But really, we have the profile of a hitter who has a decent plate approach, yet makes poor contact when he swings the bat. I know his vision has been a hot button issue, but he has also made mechanical adjustments
In July 2013 he made a batting stance adjustment while in AAA. He went from an open stance to a closed stance. The stated reason for the change was his inability to reach the outside pitch because he felt that when he stepped into the pitch he was still favoring the left side of the field (his spray charts don’t indicate this, but whatever). He felt that closing his stance made his stride parallel, which would result in using the middle of the field more.
Below are 4 gifts that illustrate the batting stance shift:
2012
Early 2013
Late 2013
2014
[SIZE=12pt]And here is a gif of his ISO in heat map charts (courtesy of BrooksBaseball)[/SIZE]
You can see that he didn’t really have problems driving the outside pitch at all. He’s always had issues with down and away (highlighted by Rev and myself here), but middle away is a sweet spot for him, open or closed stance. However, this year it is clear that he has lost all ability to hit the outside pitch. So the closed stance to hit outside pitch move has not worked as planned. It actually seemed like this shift has resulted in him losing ability to generate power from inside pitches. You do see an uptick in power to up and away, but that change has disappeared in 2014, so not sure if that was a sustainable improvement.
One last thing I noticed was how he was generating fly balls. Here is another gif heat map of fly balls per balls in play from 2012 to 2014. There is a clear trend – he used to be able to generate fly balls on low pitches, and now he can’t, only generating consistent fly balls on balls up and in, which probably explains the really high pop up rate.
There is a lot here to unpack, and like I said above, I just wanted to present some of the data for discussion. I'm not sure if corrective vision or contacts will change anything. But the 2014 version of WMB is so vastly inferior to the already questionable 2013 version that I'm not sure there is a whole lot worth salvaging here.
ScubaSteveAvery said:
I wonder if this switch hurt him because of eyesight. There's been a lot of discussion around his vision. His eyesight could be affected by his stance depending on which eye is dominant.
When I played as a teenager, one of my coaches noticed my closed stance and that I wasn't seeing the ball well. I am right-eye dominant so a closed stance limited my ability to see the pitch well from the RH batter's box. The coach suggested opening my stance (my left foot was somewhere around 11 o'clock in relation to my right foot after the switch) and I started hitting the ball a lot better because my dominant eye had a better view of the pitch coming in.
I'm not saying that my situation definitely applies to WMB, but it could be one factor. The difference in my hitting was pretty significant (went from hitting like a pitcher to .300)
ScubaSteveAvery said:
I don't think you could find more dissimilar hitters than Middlebrooks and Gomes if you tried.
DanoooME said:
I think this is a really good point. This spring Speier reported that his left eye vision was 20/30 and right eye was 20/25, so his left eye is the worse of the two, and its the 'front' eye in a closed stance. The vision stuff came out this spring (if I remember correct), so they may not have had the knowledge of his poor baseball eyesight at the time of switch, exacerbating a problem. Nice observation.
mt8thsw9th said:
I meant it as a left masher (which is why followed up talking about him platooning).
There's no such thing as a "dominant" eye, if dominant is being used in the same way that one may have a "dominant" hand. Information from the left eye and the right eye is processed by both hemispheres of the brain. What does matter is the visual field of the batter with respect to the ball; most have a "dominant" visual field. For most right-handers, the dominant visual field is the right visual field (lefties and switch hitters are another story entirely).
Closing one's stance directs the ball towards the opposite visual field. For example, if a right-handed hitter closes his swing, the perception of the ball will shift towards the left visual field. One can adjust where the ball is located within the visual field by compensating for this shift, such as by fixating more to the left of the pitcher, or by turning the head. Both eye/hand movements that lead to adjustment can effect the ability to swing and will certainly affect reaction time in a myriad of ways.
In fact, this focus on static eye acuity means absolutely nothing in terms of Will's ability to "see" the ball. Moving his eyesight from 25/20 or 30/20 to 20/20 or even 20/10 will have little affect on perceptual processing of the ball itself, which is probably more important for things like pitch recognition.
My guess is that WMB does not have a very efficient visual system for processing motion; whether that's because he fixates/tracks the ball poorly (i.e. a motor problem), or whether his visual system itself is below-average for a MLB hitter is unclear. Alternatively, his visual processing may be just fine, but the transformation of visual input into motor output may be affected.
In any case, WMB compensates through his approach; he either swings more in the hopes of making contact (2012/2013) or swings less to avoid strikeouts. I think this also may explain the data showing fluctuations in hitting ability between the three pitch types. Perhaps, WMB is "cheating" on a particular pitch type in order to compensate for limited processing ability. Such "cheating" may simply be a form of implicit bias, and therefore WMB may not even be aware of it.
The problem is that pitchers adjust as well, and WMB can't react quickly enough to compensate for that. As a result, his K/BB ratio has remained unchanged over the past three years, despite an increase in walks, while his ability to make hard contact has decreased.
Fortunately, WMB's ability to process motion can be tested psychophysically (i.e. extremely cheaply). Given the focus on his ability to "see" the ball, I'm kind of surprised that no one has done so.
EDIT: Made some edits for clarity/typos. Thanks for posting this data, SSA, pretty freaking awesome.
Closing one's stance directs the ball towards the opposite visual field. For example, if a right-handed hitter closes his swing, the perception of the ball will shift towards the left visual field. One can adjust where the ball is located within the visual field by compensating for this shift, such as by fixating more to the left of the pitcher, or by turning the head. Both eye/hand movements that lead to adjustment can effect the ability to swing and will certainly affect reaction time in a myriad of ways.
In fact, this focus on static eye acuity means absolutely nothing in terms of Will's ability to "see" the ball. Moving his eyesight from 25/20 or 30/20 to 20/20 or even 20/10 will have little affect on perceptual processing of the ball itself, which is probably more important for things like pitch recognition.
My guess is that WMB does not have a very efficient visual system for processing motion; whether that's because he fixates/tracks the ball poorly (i.e. a motor problem), or whether his visual system itself is below-average for a MLB hitter is unclear. Alternatively, his visual processing may be just fine, but the transformation of visual input into motor output may be affected.
In any case, WMB compensates through his approach; he either swings more in the hopes of making contact (2012/2013) or swings less to avoid strikeouts. I think this also may explain the data showing fluctuations in hitting ability between the three pitch types. Perhaps, WMB is "cheating" on a particular pitch type in order to compensate for limited processing ability. Such "cheating" may simply be a form of implicit bias, and therefore WMB may not even be aware of it.
The problem is that pitchers adjust as well, and WMB can't react quickly enough to compensate for that. As a result, his K/BB ratio has remained unchanged over the past three years, despite an increase in walks, while his ability to make hard contact has decreased.
Fortunately, WMB's ability to process motion can be tested psychophysically (i.e. extremely cheaply). Given the focus on his ability to "see" the ball, I'm kind of surprised that no one has done so.
EDIT: Made some edits for clarity/typos. Thanks for posting this data, SSA, pretty freaking awesome.
I've noticed the last few games he has returned to the same open stance that he had in 2012. I was watching some videos from earlier this year and it seems like when he is taking his step toward the pitcher his foot is landing more to the first base side, which doesn't allow his hips to open. This may explain why power to the inside part of the plate has disappeared. Since his hips are behind his legs, his bat is slower to come through the zone. When his stance is open, his step keeps his body parallel to the ball and allows his hips to open earlier, generating more power and giving him more plate coverage.
ScubaSteveAvery said:
a more closed stance would help against the classic righty weakness, the slider low and away from same-handed pitchers, right? I wouldn't be surprised if WMB tried to over-adjust to a weakness and it hurt more than it helped.
the quick yet powerful swing was WMB's biggest asset as a hitter, and he even had good power to the opposite field if he recognized the pitch away correctly and got the bat there. it seemed more an issue of pitch recognition that he was weak to the slider away than plate coverage.
Tim Britton @TimBritton · 7h
Lot of warning-track outs for Will Middlebrooks this trip. Wonder if his finger injury is sapping his power the way Napoli's has.
Tim Britton @TimBritton · 7h
Middlebrooks broke that finger in May. He still can't straighten it.
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/513766077625798656
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/513765941503877120
Lot of warning-track outs for Will Middlebrooks this trip. Wonder if his finger injury is sapping his power the way Napoli's has.
Tim Britton @TimBritton · 7h
Middlebrooks broke that finger in May. He still can't straighten it.
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/513766077625798656
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/513765941503877120
I thought we knew that back when we broke it, that he would never be 100% this year. The problem is, he's been in the majors three seasons and has suffered an injury each year that affected his availability or productivity or both.soxhop411 said:
It's September......everyone is less than 100%. If we sat every player for every little boo-boo we'd be playing kids from the GCL all month. Professionals are paid to and expected to perform when they are banged up.NDame616 said:
At least in those .gifs (and thank you for those, by the way), it's not just the stance that is different, but the timing. He was utilizing his stride/toe-tap earlier in 2012/13, then look at the 2014 clip. He barely even has his front foot down before the ball is on him, and so he throws the bat at the ball with his upper body. With the open stance/earlier stride, he was able to clear his hips and use them to swing with his whole body.
Obviously, just one swing shown, so maybe it wasn't representative, but it jumps out in that set.
Obviously, just one swing shown, so maybe it wasn't representative, but it jumps out in that set.
I think the bigger issue regarding his effectiveness is his ability to recognize pitches. The guy swings at some real crap sometimes and let's the good ones pass. Not as bad as AJP but pretty bad.Super Nomario said:
This is true, but when he's healthy he can (at least partially) make up for his recognition / approach issues by hitting the ball hard when he does make contact. Unfortunately he seems to be rarely healthy.strek1 said:
Super Nomario said:
WMB has so few big hits and so much weak contact this year that I doubt he is making much, if any, hard contact in 2014. It would be nice (or maybe horrifying) to get a look at the HitFX data and see if he is still capable of hitting the ball hard.
Napoli, with the finger injury, still has a 171 isolated power this year (down by about 50 points from last year). Will Middlebrooks has a .074 isolated power this year, down by about 120 points from last year.soxhop411 said:
To take another player who is thought to be oft-injured: pedroia's peak power two years ago was about 160, its about 100 this year, or down by about 60 points.
I'm not sure a broken finger accounts for Middlebrooks' complete loss of ability. At best, the injury interfered with WMB's approach and timing.
Super Nomario said:
The Player is 26 yrs old. This problem, that problem, was he rushed? His eyesight, enough is enough.
The Sox need to move on and find a legit 3B who can play.
If the rumors are true about Texas dealing Beltre or perhaps another club looking to deal, plus you have Free agency where there are a few players who can play the position.
Cechinni had a nice late season push. Although a few years away the club has RDevers and JBetts who have showed they might be legit prospects at the position. I look for a veteran stop gap like a Beltre (2yrs left) or another if the plan is to by way of prospect with the above..
Going back to Middlebrooks, the Sox are a Championship Organization. Championship Organizations don't start .190 Hitters. WM has had every opportunity to succeed and its not there. Move on..
Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam
Middlebrooks has decided no winter ball. While Cherington said players have right spend off-season as they choose, Sox clearly wanted him to.
Middlebrooks has decided no winter ball. While Cherington said players have right spend off-season as they choose, Sox clearly wanted him to.
One would imagine that choice reduces his chances of playing summer ball for the Sox next year.
Let him heal up, get married, finish his PhD in Nuclear Physics and defeat ISIS before he shows up refreshed in Ft. Myers to reclaim his job. Works for me.
Yeah, hate to say it, but given his wife to be also works & travels, they probably have not had much time to spend together in the past 6 months, so his priority for the offseason may be to make that time. At the same time, while he will not be improving his game during the off season others in the system who are may pass him on the depth chart, but I'm sure he is aware of those risks and knows he will have more to prove next Spring training b/c he punted on Winter ball and his poor 2014...
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