He and JBJ can keep each other company. And that last part does show of course that the Oaklands of the world would gladly take on the project.soxhop411 said:
Will Middlebrooks: Now or never
- Thread starter curly2
- Start date
- Status
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Yikes. That's particularly impressive given how much less the Brits weigh than Americans.
It was quite interesting the Baez is mentioned in the same thread as Brandon Wood, given the similarities they seem to share. Though in Wood's defense, he didn't strike out nearly as much as Baez in the minors, though he didn't quite have the same level of raw power, either.
Certainly, 3b needs to be addressed next year, unless they decide to plug in Holt there until Cecchini develops adequately. Even then, he doesn't seem to fit the bill of the big corner bat we need. Next year might be a good time to take a flyer on Moustakas. He hasn't ever lit it up in K.C. and a change of scenery might be what he and Middlebrooks both need. We would need to supplement a little more on our end of the trade, but I'd rather see Moustakas and his LH bat given a chance than Middlebrooks again.
I have soft contacts for astigmatism that get me back to 20/20. I know they want hitters to get to 20/15 though, so do you need the hard contacts to achieve that?Night of the Keyboard said:
His discussion of contacts being impossible to adjust to seemed ridiculous to me. Hundreds of millions of people wear contacts, many of them on sports fields. You need to wear them for more than a week before you declare yourself unable to adjust.
I had a pretty bad astigmatism before PRK and I was told that contacts would never get me to the same level of vision as glasses. Something about my astigmatism meant that contacts would never fit just right, and they'd be very expensive to boot (not that WMB cares about such common-person concerns anymore). So if his eye problems are like mine it's possible they told him it's glasses or nothing and he doesn't want to wear glasses in-game. But LASIK or PRK is always an option so I don't know what exactly the problem is. Stepping back, though, I just can't imagine someone would rather lose their livelihood, and millions of dollars, than wear glasses or contacts. I'm sure if it was that easy he'd just get glasses or contacts and start raking again.
Is it possible that contacts/glasses are the key to unlocking a successful career for Middlebrooks? Sure.
Should he be doing absolutely everything in his power to give himself the best chance of reaching that success? Of course.
Having said that, I think the vision issue is probably overblown. If he truly couldn't see well enough to be successful, or the Red Sox thought he couldn't see well enough to be successful, he would be wearing glasses/contacts. Aside from a brief hot stretch in the majors, WMB really hasn't done anything that makes his current struggles that surprising. Plenty (most?) of the players with a statistical profile like his in the minors flame out completely. Most likely, he just sucks.
Should he be doing absolutely everything in his power to give himself the best chance of reaching that success? Of course.
Having said that, I think the vision issue is probably overblown. If he truly couldn't see well enough to be successful, or the Red Sox thought he couldn't see well enough to be successful, he would be wearing glasses/contacts. Aside from a brief hot stretch in the majors, WMB really hasn't done anything that makes his current struggles that surprising. Plenty (most?) of the players with a statistical profile like his in the minors flame out completely. Most likely, he just sucks.
radsoxfan said:
All true.
However, when a player with power potential through the roof whose biggest glaring problems seem to be contact and pitch recognition and he's got a vision issue he refuses to address, that's a solid 10/10 on the frustration scale. It's not like we're chalking up Pedey's lack of power after a 7 year sample size up to his eyes without anything to go on.
I decided to run his career MLB numbers through an xBABIP/xwOBA spreadsheet that I use to see what the result would be...
BABIP: .287
xBABIP: .309
wOBA: .306
xwOBA: .321
This doesn't suggest he's hitting like an All-Star and has just been unlucky, but bad luck does seem to have been a factor. I do think he was rushed to the bigs (and posted such back in 2012 and he made me look pretty foolish that year) but I do wonder, if his career line were .255/.300/.425 right now would people feel differently about his future? What is the level of performance that would make people deem him worthy of another year in the bigs next year, or another year in AAA next year but still keeping him in the future plans? Would being a 2 WAR per season player so far do it?
The bottom line for me is that he was promoted after only 160 PA in AAA without completely mashing in those PA, and thus wasn't ready, but he's still only had 468 PA in AAA and 839 PA in MLB which haven't been atrocious but have been somewhat unlucky. He's shown an elite power tool at both levels and he's still only 25. I'd project him as a ~2 WAR player in MLB next year, so if that fits Ben's plans for the roster, keep him in MLB, but using his last option to start him in AAA and let him work on his pitch recognition there would probably be my preferred approach.
BABIP: .287
xBABIP: .309
wOBA: .306
xwOBA: .321
This doesn't suggest he's hitting like an All-Star and has just been unlucky, but bad luck does seem to have been a factor. I do think he was rushed to the bigs (and posted such back in 2012 and he made me look pretty foolish that year) but I do wonder, if his career line were .255/.300/.425 right now would people feel differently about his future? What is the level of performance that would make people deem him worthy of another year in the bigs next year, or another year in AAA next year but still keeping him in the future plans? Would being a 2 WAR per season player so far do it?
The bottom line for me is that he was promoted after only 160 PA in AAA without completely mashing in those PA, and thus wasn't ready, but he's still only had 468 PA in AAA and 839 PA in MLB which haven't been atrocious but have been somewhat unlucky. He's shown an elite power tool at both levels and he's still only 25. I'd project him as a ~2 WAR player in MLB next year, so if that fits Ben's plans for the roster, keep him in MLB, but using his last option to start him in AAA and let him work on his pitch recognition there would probably be my preferred approach.
Middlebrooks + for Moustakas would be interesting for both parties. My guess is after what happened with Alex Gordon though Kansas City will hold onto him with a Kung Fu death grip. He's eventually going to turn it around. I remember when WMB was called up he was compared anywhere between Travis Fryman and David Wright. Fryman in my opinion was an excellent 3B option back in the day and I think there is still some time for WMB to reach that.RochesterSamHorn said:
Just remember, since Kansas City was brought up, Alex Gordon didn't figure it out until he had 3-4 years shuttling back and forth. Before then he wasn't just a bust, he was a mega bust of epic proportions. Patience, WMB may shock you in 2015.
Tyrone Biggums said:
The problem is 2015 - I can't see any scenario where the team can count on WMB as the 3b next year .. and, as such, will have to make plans in another direction. WMB is, in all likelihood, Pawtucket's 3B next year (I think Cecchini gets moved due to WMB's superior defense) .. give him the whole year to get his stroke back without any pressure or major expectations.
It also seems unlikely that they will trade him , being at the nadir of his professional career. Even if they could wrangle Moustakas out of KC that would be yet another huge question mark. If they can't count on WMB what's the point of rolling the dice on another failed prospect.
Therein lies a huge issue for Red Sox player development...the Red Sox need to be perennial contenders, whereas Kansas City not so much. A contender can't have a bunch of question marks and 3-4 years of MLB break in in order to maybe develop a starting position player, especially if options and pre-arb/free agent seasons are getting burned. I suspect the Red Sox have had internal discussions as to the maximum years they can spend developing a prospect in the minors and majors before they need to cut bait.Tyrone Biggums said:
WMB was rushed but in his first stint at AAA he had a 1.057 OPS in 100 PA with 9 HRs. He mashed.
WMB needs ABs and Cecchini needs to play 3B. WMB is not going to forget how to play 3B so DH, OF or 1B will suffice. Unless he's to be traded Cecchini's only possible role with Boston, at least for 2015, is at third. For Pawtucket, developing players is more important than winning games so there is no need to play the better defensive playerBCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Night of the Keyboard said:
Probably just reflecting the pre-season talk that Cecchini would eventually end up in LF due to being a less than stellar 3B (and the presence of WMB - which would seem to be less of an issue now of course).
WMB in LF and Cecchini at 3B would certainly be my preferred lineup but what do I know?
.
Given Will's once shown potential and RH power bat, the Sox are wise to have him play winter ball and not just DFA him or give him away in a trade for a bag of balls. Teams will want him and his potential, and think that with a change of scenery, that he very well might turn out.
Then again, there's a very real possibility -- like JBJ now in AAA -- that his suck will continue unabated, at almost any level.
Watching Will and Allen Craig at the plate right now is almost painful. Both look utterly lost. In Craig's case, it's possible to rationalize that he's hurt still and that with an off season to get right, that he could revert to 2011-13 Craig. But given how long it's been since WMB has hit comfortably over the Mendoza line and for power, concluding along similar lines is much more difficult.
Then again, there's a very real possibility -- like JBJ now in AAA -- that his suck will continue unabated, at almost any level.
Watching Will and Allen Craig at the plate right now is almost painful. Both look utterly lost. In Craig's case, it's possible to rationalize that he's hurt still and that with an off season to get right, that he could revert to 2011-13 Craig. But given how long it's been since WMB has hit comfortably over the Mendoza line and for power, concluding along similar lines is much more difficult.
I disagree. That's the MFY syndrome and it hasn't done much for them lately. They need to be rebuilt intelligently; what they have to avoid is falling into an extended cycle of non-contention.
BC has made some serious mistakes. I'm not throwing him under the bus, but this needs to be discussed candidly. The unexpected 2013 wasn't recognized as serendipity, where some disparate parts meshed perfectly. IIRC, many of us considered 2013 the bridge year before the season began. But that kind of success is random, and doesn't reflect a foundation for a new cycle of success. CF is example no. 1. 3rd base is another. There was insufficient protection for Papi in the batting order. And so on.
That's hindsight. Lefty Gomez (I think) famously said 'I'd rather be lucky than good'. I agree. But the other part of it is recognizing when you're lucky rather than good, and not just assuming that you'll be lucky a second time.
Edit: Perhaps the word 'perennial' makes allowances for a down year, but I didn't read it that way.
Otis Foster said:
I would argue that pretty much every season under current ownership has had playoff potential. They've never come into a season with, for example, a roster like we see on the field today. This is a big market organization that probably doesn't have consecutive losing seasons for the purposes of player development baked into their business model.
The difference between their philosophy and that of some other big market teams is that, in recent seasons, the Sox are willing to liquidate mid-season if it looks like they're out of it, rather than double down and pick up expensive rentals.
Per my edit, I'm not sure we disagree. I just think that in some years they are more muted about their prospects than others. I do feel the unanticipated success in 2013 blindered them a little to the need to retool in certain spots.threecy said:
I don't see how this is consistent with the wholesale replacement of the up-the-middle positions, and the signing of Mujica to be a backup closer.Otis Foster said:
I think the unexpected success of 2013 made them more willing to accept the possibility of failure by rookies promoted and retreads signed to fill the vacated up the middle positions. They weren't blinded to the need to retool, they simply chose to retool in a way that deemphasized 2014, hoping to rest on their laurels of 2013's improbable success. Even still, they tried to strengthen the bullpen as one cheap way to hedge against those risks, but Mujica was awful. And, as it turns out, even if Pierszynski, Bogaerts, and Bradley all performed to expectations, the implosion of Middlebrooks, Drew (once resigned), Victorino, Breslow, and Buchholz (and Tazawa and Koji post deadline) probably dooms them anyway.
There is no indication that BC was resting on his laurels though. If players such as Pierszynski Bogaerts and Bradley performed to expectations I think they would at least be in the hunt for the wc. The problem is the vast majority of the team performed below expectations and there is no way to have enough depth to cover that. As lucky as 2013 was 2014 proved to be the exact opposite.
OptimusPapi said:
They never had a plan for replacing Ellsbury, and lord knows, they had enough time to think about it. It was pretty clear going back a few years that he and SB were simply looking for money, and after the Crawford-Gonzo fiasco, the RS apparently were operating on a financial model that wouldn't address the likely price for someone at age 30 who was looking long term. Once JB came down from his miraculous ST run, he was at best a work in process, Sizemore was a roll of the dice and Victorino was a known injury risk. Middlebrooks was a long shot, and is even worse now. So that's 3 key positions that were at risk following the 2013 season.
I can justify Pierzynski - complaining about that now is hindsight logic. Ditto Bogaerts poor season. But Napoli is notoriously streaky, as is/was Gomes.
I'm not 100% negative on BC. Far from it, he's done some very good things. But some of this mess splatters him as well. And I remain convinced that an unexpected 2013 had some impact on his thinking, when a clearer vision would have identified these flaws. Others obviously disagree. I respect their arguments, I'm just not convinced by them.
And btw, I never suggested he 'rested on his laurels'. That's unfair to him. But he did apparently assume that the chemistry/magic of 2013 would continue at some level in 2014.
As mentioned, they had a CF plan.. It was Shane missing the season that set the dominoes flying and made the entire Sox outfield a lost cause. Add in catcher and the left side of the infield and you have no reason to even worry about pitching.
It's really important that this September not be a repeat of 2011 and 2012. I see flashes of encouragement that I hope get brighter over the next three weeks. I'm expecting Sox hot stove to be more like a ceramic kiln.
I don't think that Ben knew he had a Vic problem in the off season. Absent that info, you can't bring in a starting quality outfielder to not play. No job, no sign. You're left with the Grady's to pick through for depth.
It's really important that this September not be a repeat of 2011 and 2012. I see flashes of encouragement that I hope get brighter over the next three weeks. I'm expecting Sox hot stove to be more like a ceramic kiln.
I don't think that Ben knew he had a Vic problem in the off season. Absent that info, you can't bring in a starting quality outfielder to not play. No job, no sign. You're left with the Grady's to pick through for depth.
Victorino came to spring training physically unable to perform. The GM has to know that. I think that may have spurred their jumping in late on Sizemore (he continue to hit for Philly, maybe those who wanted to give him more rope were right after all).
I also don't think you can say those who ridiculed the AJP signing from day 1 are acting in hindsight. He was clearly in decline, his reputation was awful, and in the end he wasn't even willing to do the basic preparation the team demands of its catchers. All of that is knowable ex ante. The GM has to know that.
I also don't think you can say those who ridiculed the AJP signing from day 1 are acting in hindsight. He was clearly in decline, his reputation was awful, and in the end he wasn't even willing to do the basic preparation the team demands of its catchers. All of that is knowable ex ante. The GM has to know that.
AJP was the failed reaction to the Phillies paying Ruiz and giving him a third year. He was the real target and a much more valuable piece to have with Vaz and Blake on the way. AJP is a prick in steep decline, if you're going to bring a prick into your clubhouse he needs to be elite and in his prime.Plympton91 said:
As for Victorino, the SoSH Hawaiians need to keep a better eye on him during the off season, or maybe Ben could have paid him a visit in January to check him out.
Sizemore had nothing to do with Victornio. BC wanted to start JBJ in the minors and took the best available option that made sense and that was SIzemore. It was realistic for Ben to assume a fallback would be shifting Vic to center. Just because a player is banged up at the end of the year is no indication that he is going to continue to be banged up once the season started. More then likely Vics injuries didn't become apparent or even start until spring training. To expect Ben to know a player is going to be injured before they are injured is insane. As for AJP how was he in decline? His career stats according to Fangraph are 282/320/424 with an ops of 740. In 2013 he hit 272/297/425 with an ops of 722. That does not scream a player who is about to fall off a cliff like AJP did. For a one year pick up to buy time for two promising catchers it wasn't a bad move. It just did not pan out.
AJP wasn't the first option. Where on Fangraph can I get his prick factor numbers? When pitchers don't want to throw to him, it's an avoidable self-created problem. I want the GM to be smarter than Fangraph.OptimusPapi said:
Rasputin said:
JBJ 2014 WAR:
- b-ref: 1.6
- fangraphs: 1.5
- espn: 1.6
Cleveland is a contending team and they have a CF (Bourn) who has put up a 0.6 WAR. Toronto is a contending team and they have a CF (Rasmus) who has put up a 1.0 WAR. Coco Crisp is the starting CF for one of the best teams in baseball (Oakland) and he has a 1.8 WAR. Austin Jackson has played for two contending teams (Det/Sea) and he has a 1.9 WAR.
In other words, JBJ's offense was incredibly bad, but the overall player was absolutely someone you could have lived with on a contending team if others had done their job better.
Exactly. Of course AJP was signed because the FO was looking for a decent veteran catcher on a one year deal. And of course there are many ways to build a good team and he can be a part of a good team.MuzzyField said:
But if your philosophy is to build team chemistry and to battle every at bat and to find players that yearn to learn more about baseball, AJP is not your guy. And we heard over and over that this was the Red Sox plan.
That signing is one of many reasons I get skeptical when folks talk about the FO's plan/philosophy. They seem to change their collective minds a lot.
Assuming a partial season of dWAR is as accurate a depiction of value as much more concrete things like OBP, SLG, and SB, and that offense and defense should be weighted equally even when measured accurately, then this approach may in fact be correct. I think it fails on every one of those tests.ivanvamp said:
Who else was available on a one year deal? IF this was the FO's plan, there really wasn't much available.snowmanny said:
Small quibble, but there were plenty around here that were concerned about Victorino's health going into the 2013 off-season. He missed 40 games last year with recurring hammy/back issues. He played an extra month of play-off baseball in 2013, so his health (along with the pitchers health) should have been monitored a little more closely in the off season. He plays all out on every play, diving for balls, banging into walls, etc, and thats FAR from a negative BUT if you don't think about factoring that into a potential injury then thats crazy. Plus, to my untrained eye and SSS, his CF defense in 2013 was unimpressive (which hurts a lot of his value, since his RF defense is excellent).OptimusPapi said:
I guess the question I have for you now is how concerned are you about Victorino's health for next year? I'd say its a coin toss Shane plays over a 100 games in 2015.
The Sizemore in CF, Victorino back-up in CF, JBJ at AAA was the biggest gaff last off-season from the front office, but since this is the Will Middlebrooks: Now or Never thread, I blame Wombat for all the 2014 CF issues.
The issue I have is that many here had the foresight to question many of these moves. We entered the season with a ton of question marks and giving BC a free pass because "he had no other options" or "players underperformed" is failing to hold BC accountable for his roster construction. We had severe offensive questions in CF and 3B, severe defensive questions at SS and C, injury concerns w Vic, was Nava a fluke.......the 3B, SS, CF and C positions (without even pressing the corner OF spots) were all areas of concern entering spring. That's nearly half of your everyday lineup......failing to question BC's preparation for this season is irresponsible from a fanbase such as this.OptimusPapi said:
I'm not calling for his head but the seat is getting very warm and I'm don't have a ton of confidence in him this winter in steering this ship.
Pierzynski was a stopgap until Vasquez and/or Swihart could take over. They wanted a one-year guy (or a half-year guy, really), and I guess they figured he was the best or only option. They said again and again they wanted to contend for a title in 2014, but I don't believe it. This year was about setting up for the future.snowmanny said:
Personally, I think you're wrong.HomeRunBaker said:
I'm not going to go through every single one of his offseason moves, but I will say that it's pretty clear that Ben had a plan going into ST. That it failed at nearly every turn doesn't exclude him from blame, but I do think you're last sentence is an overreaction.
I'm wrong that I questioned many of these moves or that others did? I'm confused by how someones opinion can be wrong and many shared it.MakMan44 said:
Ah gotcha. Ok that makes more sense. I don't agree that 2 out of 3 years of last place finishes with a roster in more disarray than I've ever seen it gets a pass from ownership. I hope the seat never gets warmer than it's temperature today of course but I feel this is a crucial offseason for BC. Good start with Castillo......it will be interesting to see the rest of our opening day roster.MakMan44 said:
Edit: I wasn't saying many felt BC's seat was getting warm (although I feel there should be those who see this).......I was saying that many questioned X's ability to play SS, WMB to play at all, JBJ to hit, Vic staying healthy, and AJ fitting in.
Bogaerts' problem has been his ability to hit, not his ability to play shortstop.HomeRunBaker said:
JakeRae said:
I think his ability to play shortstop is very much in question, and his 2014 performance at both shortstop and third base has been problematic. Red Sox fielders playing more than 200 innings at one position, ranked by Defensive Runs Saved says that he's even worse at 3B, but part of that is due to inexperience. At shortstop he's not very athletic, he can't jump at all, his double play pivots are slow and awkward, and his flips are off-target. I think he's got the tools to play 3B (good diving stops, strong arm, excellent bare-handed pickups), and just needs practice. I don't think practice is going to help him become more than a subpar shortstop.
Sprowl said:
I agree--in fact that might be putting it kindly--but I don't think that's what JakeRae meant. We already knew Bogaerts' defensive ceiling at SS was fringe-average, but that was OK, because he was going to rake. And it was always quite possible he'd be worse than fringe-average, and we'd have to move him, but that was OK, because he was going to rake. Everything about Bogaerts will be OK as soon as he starts to rake. Until then, everything is a problem.
I do wonder if Jenny Dell is a factor in his failures. What's that line about--if you're even thinking at all about how you look; you're doomed.
Has Will hit well since he broke his wrist? He was as I remember always a hacker but when he caught one ...... Now there is no power and his weaknesses in judgement are more glaring.
- Status