Will Jackie Bradley bounce back in 2018?

The Gray Eagle

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An Evan Dreilich interview with Bradley on nbcsports. com talks about Jackie's injuries last year and whether he can bounce back to hit more like he did in 2016.

"One of the reasons to believe Bradley can rebound in 2017 — and a reason to advocate keeping a cost-controlled player who is both comfortable in Boston and immensely talented — is renewed health.

Bradley suffered a right knee sprain in April that put him in a brace through May. He sprained his left thumb in August. A baseball source with direct knowledge of Bradley’s situation emphasized his injuries did affect him.

Bradley, like many players, on Thursday did not want to discuss the extent of his health.

“Y’all know I’m never gonna say anything about that. It’s just not who I am,” Bradley told NBC Sports Boston before accepting the Defensive Player of the Year award at the 79th annual Boston baseball writers awards dinner. “But as a player, you just have to deal. You’re injured. But I felt at the time that I could still help the team out. So I was in a brace. I think once I got it off, it actually was feeling pretty good."

It didn’t linger all year, Bradley said.

“It felt pretty good until the thumb happened,” Bradley said. “But it’s one of those things where nobody’s ever really 100 percent. You grind, and you make the best with what’s due.”

After his thumb injury, Bradley came back and played, but he hit an abysmal 172/238/280 in 101 PAs through the end of the season. Seems like yet another occasion of a Red Sox player ineffectually trying to play through injury instead of staying out and healing.

2018 projections for Bradley:
Zips: 255/330/434, 18 HRs, .327 wOBA, 99 wRC+
Depth Charts: 259/340/445, 21 HRs, .335 wOBA, 105 wRC+
Steamer: 250/340/445, 19 HRs, .335 wOBA, 105 wRC+

Combining all 3 and you get something like a .780 OPS, with around 20 HRs, a wOBA around .330 and a wRC+ a little over 100. Combined with his defense at a crucial position, that is a very valuable player.

Maybe if he can stay healthy, he can hit more like he did in 2016, when he put up an .835 OPS, 26 HRs, 354 wOBA and 119 wRC+.

Bradley wants to steal more bases in 2018.
"And new Red Sox manager Alex Cora apparently is going to let him.

"I've always wanted to run more," Bradley said here at the Boston Baseball Writers Dinner today. "I'm glad that he's going to give me that opportunity to be able to do that more often."

Bradley never has stolen more than nine bases in a season. He stole eight bases in 2017. Did the Red Sox limit him in the past?

"I feel like I could run," he said. "I feel like I've gotten stronger every year. I've been pretty successful on the base paths. I guess certain times, the situation didn't dictate it in the past. And the red light was more a thing they wanted to do with certain people at bat instead of take the extra base."

If he can steal more bags while keeping anywhere close to his career 86% percentage that would be a good thing.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I generally did not feel that Farrell was all that bad as a manager - basically meh - but perhaps the thing that frustrated me the most was that there were MANY occasions where I thought they should be attempting a SB, given the runner and game situation, but didn't. We have a number of good base runners and base stealers, so I'll be very happy if Cora utilizes this tool more effectively. Of course there's also a lot of room for improvement on the baserunning generally - while Farrell didn't have them trying to steal bases, it seemed that they had a willy-nilly approach to aggressively try to take the extra base, without regard to smart, situational baserunning. (I know there was a whole thread on running into outs last season, and I don't intend to resurrect that whole discussion, but I think this is surely another area where there's a lot of room for improvement under Cora.)

And it sure would be nice if we could get reasonably healthy seasons from X and JBJ - I'd really like to see what those guys can do.
 

nvalvo

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In addition to the injuries: Bradley also lost 15 points of BABIP without his batted ball profile changing very much. And he kept his strikeout rate in the low 20s. I’m bullish.
 

grimshaw

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I could be wrong, but JBJ strikes me more as the type of base runner who should just pick his spots to steal like he had been since he really isn't very fast. I have a feeling giving him the green light is going to hurt his CS%. quite a bit.

I have no clue what he'll do this year. He's at the age and experience level where we should have an idea, but we really don't know what to pencil him in for aside from at least 15 home runs.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
In addition to the injuries: Bradley also lost 15 points of BABIP without his batted ball profile changing very much.
Shift numbers may shed some light on this: teams shifted on Bradley quite a bit more in 2017 -- 59% of his balls in play were against a "traditional" shift, vs. 48% in 2016. And compounding things, his pull rate on ground balls against the shift went up a bit as well, from 54% to 59%. The result was that the percentage of his PA that ended up as pulled ground balls into a shift went up by about 40%, from 8.8% to 12.2%. That's a pretty good recipe for a BABIP dip.
 

sezwho

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In addition to the injuries: Bradley also lost 15 points of BABIP without his batted ball profile changing very much. And he kept his strikeout rate in the low 20s. I’m bullish.
I’m bullish as well and think ‘the numbers’ can do a disservice in situations like this.

Regressing with different weights and comparing him to other ‘similar’ players ignores the fact we know he had significant injuries. If the hand injury were 10% worse, we wouldn’t know and would be ‘factoring’ 10% less production into his new projection.

I’m not sure that this analogy is great (and I suspect I’m about to hear it’s not) but I think of injuries as a Dirac delta interaction with my JBJ PDE :) Don’t know magnitude of injury affect so hard to solve.

Scouting and projections prior to injury would be more interesting than any model incorporating last years performance, and those are pretty positive.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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In addition to the injuries: Bradley also lost 15 points of BABIP without his batted ball profile changing very much. And he kept his strikeout rate in the low 20s. I’m bullish.
I don't think his batted ball profile was all that similar. His percentage of balls his between 0 and 10 degrees went from 12.4 to 14.4, while his percentage of balls hit 10-19 degrees, 19-26, and 26-39 (all ranges tracked by xstats.org) went down. He also had a nearly 4% increase in balls hit above 39 degrees.

So he traded well struck balls in the air (10-39 degrees) for ground balls and pop ups. In short, he wasn't squaring the ball up nearly as well in 2017.
 

Sampo Gida

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Last couple of years he has been a noticeably poorer hitter in the 2nd half than in the first half. Maybe thats injuries or conditioning, no idea
 

Harry Hooper

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JBJ is in Fort Myers getting batting tips from gator (not Mike Greenwell):

NESN
 

EricFeczko

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This was mentioned in another thread regarding JDM.
The Yankees have Ellsbury for the next 3 years at slightly more than you have JDM.
This is perhaps a useful outside perspective that ought not be lost.
I think this perspective benefits from examining the context in which Ellsbury left: Jackie Bradley Jr. Linked here is a fangraphs search for all CFs dashboard performance since 2014. As the link, hopefully, shows, both JBJ and Ellsbury have appeared in a similar number of games (Ellsbury has appeared in 30 more games over 4 years with 300 more plate appearances). Nevertheless, JBJ and Ellsbury have performed similarly over the past four years, with Ellsbury sacrificing power for fewer strikeouts.

JBJ will be 28, earning 6 million (or 2 million more than nunez), and will probably make less than 10 until 2021. Ellsbury will be 34, earning 21 million with a full NT clause, and cannot be dropped until 2021. Furthermore, JBJ is trending as an average CFer, whereas Ellsbury is in the bottom third in the league right now. Just removing 2014 from the equation, and JBJ jumps to an average wRC+ of 109, whereas Ellsbury hasn't sniffed 109 since 2014.