Why I'm not worried about the offense...

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The spate of games since the All-Star break has been ... frustrating, to say the least. The offense at times looks like it will never score a run again. This has led to any number of calls for a trade, a middle of the order bat, a human sacrifice, whatever.

However, I think there's good reason not to be overly alarmed. Baseball is streaky. Hopefully, your lineup is balanced enough that when one player is cold, another is hot, and they even each other out. However, sometimes everyone gets cold at once, and it looks bloody awful.

That's where we are now. Consider that since the beginning of the Rays series:

Xander is: 154/267/154
Moreland is: 103/229/138
Jackie is: 156/206/281
Andrew is: 212/297/242
Hanley is: 242/306/424
Young (in 11 PA, but still) is: 000/000/000
Sandy (in 14 PA, but still) is: 091/286/091
Vaz is: 200/250/200

And Mookie is just at 250/302/425 even with a couple of big games for him.

Now Pedey is OPSing 934 in the same period, but he's the only one who's shown any kind of life. If we get even year-average production out of X, Moreland, Jackie, or Andrew (I'm going to say Hanley's production is basically what he is at this point), even a single fucking hit out of Chris Young, the Sox probably win two extra games since the break and maybe the Porcello game with TB.

There's just not a good reason to believe this level of ineptitude will continue. The ship is bound to right itself back to the mean at some point.

Rather than being overly discouraged by the hitting, I'm choosing to be very pleased with the pitching. I think the Sox are set up to make a big run, as ugly as the last week has been.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Rather than being overly discouraged by the hitting, I'm choosing to be very pleased with the pitching. I think the Sox are set up to make a big run, as ugly as the last week has been.

I'm slightly less optimistic than you, based on the inconsistency that's cropped up in the bullpen, but I agree with you about the offense.

The panic has come from Immediate Reaction Syndrome, combined with that the sluggish offense has happened against the Yankees and Blue Jays ... which amps up the anxiety.

Folks don't want Dombrowski to overreact to the moment, and we'd be wise to listen to our own advice

 

[drbretto]

I agree in the larger sense, but I think the lack of power is something legitimate. That's not the slump, that's been the story all season. I do think this team needs an impact bat in order to progress through the playoffs. There are some really good teams to beat this year.

 

[joe dokes]

I think what appears to be a really good starting rotation means that the offense has a slightly easier task, than if it was trying to overcome being down by 5 every night.

 

[MikeM]

I agree in the larger sense, but I think the lack of power is something legitimate. That's not the slump, that's been the story all season. I do think this team needs an impact bat in order to progress through the playoffs. There are some really good teams to beat this year.

This.

As somebody basically point out in another thread yesterday, trying to win titles with a team that doesn't hit homeruns in what is fast becoming the homerun era ultimately just isn't adding up to a solid overall and long term approach imo.

 

[Otis Foster]

This.

As somebody basically point out in another thread yesterday, trying to win titles with a team that doesn't hit homeruns in what is fast becoming the homerun era ultimately just isn't adding up to a solid overall and long term approach imo.

It's not the absence of home runs per se, it's the horrendous situational hitting. The offense just doesn't seem sustainable - Moreland gone dark recently, Bogaerts ineffective, weakness in the 7-8-9 spots (excluding JB). They get men on base, for the most part, just don't get the critical hit to move baserunners along.

 

[shaggydog2000]

It's not the absence of home runs per se, it's the horrendous situational hitting. The offense just doesn't seem sustainable - Moreland gone dark recently, Bogaerts ineffective, weakness in the 7-8-9 spots (excluding JB). They get men on base, for the most part, just don't get the critical hit to move baserunners along.

Red Sox WRC+ rank: 17th
Red Sox WRC+ with men in scoring position rank: 17th

Red Sox OBP rank: 5th
Red Sox OBP with men in scoring position: 7th

It's not situational hitting. They're just an average hitting team right now. They get on base but lack power.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Red Sox WRC+ rank: 17th
Red Sox WRC+ with men in scoring position rank: 17th

Red Sox OBP rank: 5th
Red Sox OBP with men in scoring position: 7th

It's not situational hitting. They're just an average hitting team right now. They get on base but lack power.

And that's part of why I'm bullish. What we've seen over the last 8 games isn't an average offense. It's a bottom 5 offense. I think if you put an average offense with this pitching staff you have a potential pennant winner.

 

[BornToRun]

I agree in the larger sense, but I think the lack of power is something legitimate. That's not the slump, that's been the story all season. I do think this team needs an impact bat in order to progress through the playoffs. There are some really good teams to beat this year.

I'm not too concerned about how we might match up with the competition in October. The playoffs are a total roll of the dice and just getting there should be the primary goal. Of course you want to set yourself up for postseason success as best you can but the 2006 Cardinals and 2014 Royals showed us that anything can happen in the playoffs. Just get there and take your chances.

 

[Zososoxfan]

I'm not overly worried about the offense, but another good hitter to lengthen the lineup would presumably make these cold spells less frequent and less horrific. As OP noted, the team is getting on base and sometimes all it takes is a hit to get the offense the extra out it needs (rather waiving white flag Marrero). It's pretty obvious the team could use an upgrade on the infield corners.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Three reasons to worry are XB's hand, Hanleys shoulders and Morelands toe, not to mention the mostly black hole at 3B and 73 OPS+ at C which would be 5 reasons

 

[drbretto]

I'm not too concerned about how we might match up with the competition in October. The playoffs are a total roll of the dice and just getting there should be the primary goal. Of course you want to set yourself up for postseason success as best you can but the 2006 Cardinals and 2014 Royals showed us that anything can happen in the playoffs. Just get there and take your chances.

No doubt I'm getting way ahead of myself here. And, it's true that anything can happen in a short series.

But, I'm not sure I buy the notion that the playoffs are a roll of the dice. At least not an even one. If we're going to use that analogy, I think the lack of power is like going into the playoffs with one less die, against a couple of teams that might have an extra one. They can win, but they're going to need a lot of sixes.

With the trade deadline looming, I think it's important to look ahead. I think they will bounce back and hold onto the division, or if not, take a wild card slot. This is still a really good team. I just think it's been long enough to see that the power outage is not a fluke. They don't exactly have a running game to make up for it, either. And I think that's a weakness that will be easier to spot in a short series.

This is not to say they're a bad team at all. And they can certainly get hot over the coming months. We saw that in 2004. They clicked in August. Or, I don't know what's available or what we have left to spend, but who knows what's going to happen by July 31. I just think it's a problem that needs to be addressed, whether it's a new approach or some new blood.

 

[joe dokes]

I suppose this is the right place for this. Butterfield talks baserunning:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/07/21/risky-business-red-sox-base-runners-not-afraid-take-chances/BepfVVkERZmH7MimChKlSL/story.html

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Problem seems to be the Redsox have good hitters but they aren't good enough to carry dead weight around like they would be with David Ortiz.