No Capisco.
The Wild Card winner plays the team with the best record.
The Red Sox are playing either NY or Oakland in the first round.
Who scares you in the American League?
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
The Wild Card winner plays the team with the best record.
The Red Sox are playing either NY or Oakland in the first round.
The A's are only 3 games back. Yes, Houston is probably the ALW favorite right now but that race is far from a certainty.
I'm not quite sure why some here are scared of Cleveland. They have two outstanding young position players, a good 4-deep rotation, and....that's it. Their only above-average position player besides Ramirez and Lindor is a sub-.700 hitter vs. LHP (i.e., most of our rotation), their #2 starter will be just back from a broken fibula if he's available at all, their defense is OK but not great, aside from Lindor, and their bullpen makes ours look like the '03 Astros'.
About that rotation: if you look at their by-team splits, they've cleaned up on the unbelievably weak lineups in their own division, skewing their numbers considerably. (Note that they've pitched more than twice as many innings against sub-.500 teams as above-.500 teams.) All the other playoff contenders except the Yankees have hit the Indians at an .820 or better clip. The effect is similar in the other direction -- they're a mediocre hitting club against non-divisional competition.
Clevinger is the poster boy for this effect. Of his 182 innings, a little more than half (93+) have been against divisional foes plus the Orioles. Against these five teams, he has a 1.83 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 4.3 K/BB. Against all other competition--i.e., interleague, AL West, and AL East minus one of the worst teams in history--those numbers are 4.68, 1.40, and 2.6. Still not horrendous, but not good either.
Sure, I'm cherry-picking a bit, and it's not shocking that players do better against worse competition. But the point is that Cleveland pitchers have seen more than their share of bad competition, and it makes them look better than they are. Carrasco has benefited from this effect, if anything, even more than Clevinger; he's been absolutely lit up by good lineups, while rolling over bad ones--the only playoff contender he has an under-5 ERA against is the Yankees. (Bauer, on the other hand, has been outstanding against pretty much everybody.)
They're a good team, I'm not saying they aren't, but they seem to me probably the least intimidating of the field, especially if Bauer is unavailable or not 100%. I don't see what chance they have of beating Houston in the ALDS, but if they somehow manage it, I will feel like our toughest work has already been done in beating the WC winner (whether it's NYY or OAK).
About that rotation: if you look at their by-team splits, they've cleaned up on the unbelievably weak lineups in their own division, skewing their numbers considerably. (Note that they've pitched more than twice as many innings against sub-.500 teams as above-.500 teams.) All the other playoff contenders except the Yankees have hit the Indians at an .820 or better clip. The effect is similar in the other direction -- they're a mediocre hitting club against non-divisional competition.
Clevinger is the poster boy for this effect. Of his 182 innings, a little more than half (93+) have been against divisional foes plus the Orioles. Against these five teams, he has a 1.83 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 4.3 K/BB. Against all other competition--i.e., interleague, AL West, and AL East minus one of the worst teams in history--those numbers are 4.68, 1.40, and 2.6. Still not horrendous, but not good either.
Sure, I'm cherry-picking a bit, and it's not shocking that players do better against worse competition. But the point is that Cleveland pitchers have seen more than their share of bad competition, and it makes them look better than they are. Carrasco has benefited from this effect, if anything, even more than Clevinger; he's been absolutely lit up by good lineups, while rolling over bad ones--the only playoff contender he has an under-5 ERA against is the Yankees. (Bauer, on the other hand, has been outstanding against pretty much everybody.)
They're a good team, I'm not saying they aren't, but they seem to me probably the least intimidating of the field, especially if Bauer is unavailable or not 100%. I don't see what chance they have of beating Houston in the ALDS, but if they somehow manage it, I will feel like our toughest work has already been done in beating the WC winner (whether it's NYY or OAK).
Exactly, which means that they can't possibly play NY in the ALCS--unless they're no longer the team with the best record when the playoff bell rings.
Houston. Starting pitching, pen, and lineup. Don’t see an obvious weakness with them. Our pen is scaring the crap out of me, but if Eovaldi and Wright can step in and be effective bridge guys, we should be ok. Concerned is the right wording, because I’m really not scurred of anyone, and can’t wait to watch this club tee it up in October.
Sorry, misunderstood the premise.
(I assume everyone would prefer NYY to OAK. Right?)
HOU has a slightly more favorable schedule which includes 9 games against common teams. It is not impossible for OAK to overtake HOU but Fangraphs has HOU at 96.0% to win the division.
Interesting that Fangraphs has HOU at 23.6% to win the WS while Red Sox are only at 16.4%. (CLE at 12.6%; MFY at 10.6%).
Highest team in NL is LAD at 13.8%
Highest team in NL is LAD at 13.8%
Their lineup also has Edwin Encanarcion who despite his average has 29 HR's and has a career OPS of over .900 against the Red Sox. Rotation-wise, Trevor Bauer is scheduled to throw this week and could be back in the rotation by the end of the season. Him and Kluber are a hell of a top 2. If he can't go in the rotation, they said he would be going out of the bullpen. If Miller is back and healthy, that bullpen is nasty with him and Hand at the back while Olivier Perez sporting an ERA under 1 as a lefty specialist and Adam Cimber as the righty specialist. Cody Allen is an issue but overall their pen is better than the Red Sox.
I'd feel that way if Manaea were available. But it looks like he might be done, and without him their rotation looks vulnerable, to put it mildly. So I'd call it a draw, I think.
No doubt, I was just trying to point out that saying the Sox ARE playing NY or OAK may be a bit premature. Most likely scenario, absolutely.
How many of those teams want to play us?
We've been chugging along without our #1 who is going to be the horse in the playoffs. A playoff bullpen is not a regular season bullpen. We can score runs with anyone in this league.
Is it possible to lose a series? Of course. We're probably an even money match with Houston, and easy favorites against any other team in MLB. If you go into the playoffs with those odds "scared", you never won't be.
We've been chugging along without our #1 who is going to be the horse in the playoffs. A playoff bullpen is not a regular season bullpen. We can score runs with anyone in this league.
Is it possible to lose a series? Of course. We're probably an even money match with Houston, and easy favorites against any other team in MLB. If you go into the playoffs with those odds "scared", you never won't be.
As to the bolded: this seems like a case of premature chicken-counting. I think it's probably true. I certainly hope it's true. But I don't know that we can count on it being true. This is a pitcher who's now been sidelined twice, the second time for almost a month in the middle of a stretch run that is by no means over, when we could really have used him. His injury is clearly real and non-trivial. I don't think we should take it as a given that he'll be Chris MF'ing Sale in the playoffs till we see how his tuneup starts go.
And "scared" can mean different things to different people. I doubt that anybody here thinks we should be "scared" of any of the playoff teams in the sense I think you mean. I was interpreting it more as "non-complacent."
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Who from the rotation is going to provide a boost to the rotation? If it's the Eovaldi from his first two starts it is definitely him. If it's the version over the last few weeks, I can't see how he's any better than the pieces currently in place. Steven Wright could, but can you trust a knuckleballer to consistently throw strikes in a pressure situation? Can you trust the catcher to catch everything with men on base?
They can be favorites in the ALDS if Sale is ready to go and Price can finally pitch well in the playoffs. If not, then it's a toss-up.
Not sure if you were serious--probably not--but it made me wonder... looks like the Red Sox have a magic number of one to eliminate each of Seattle and Tampa Bay from being able to catch them, which would then clinch them at least a WC berth, I think.
The only thing that scares me about the Yankees is the Red Sox....specifically that they walk guys and the Yankees can seemingly only do one thing, hit homers.
What does it do to the Tomato Can believers if Tampa passes Seattle and wins 90 games (11-8 gets them to 90)?
Really grasping for straws here. I guess we should be glad Trumps in office...since, you know, the Yankees haven't won a World Series with a Republican in the white house since Ike.
It's not always a "who" scenario. Cora will be more cutthroat, and we won't be seeing multiple innings of our worst pitchers at a time.
They "could" be favorites in the ALDS? Give me a break. They will be.
And yes, I am supremely confident Sale will be Chris Fucking Sale. Think of it what you want.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around this question. To me, either answer seems illogical. People often say that the postseason is a crapshoot, and I think that's absolutely true. When you look at the likely odds of a given game going one way or the other in baseball, it seems like it takes a pretty extreme difference in team quality to push the ratio beyond 60/40. Only when you see the worst teams playing the best teams do you consistently see odds as extreme as 70/30.
So, if being scared means "I think the Sox are unlikely to beat this team," then I don't see how any team in baseball could qualify. There might be teams that are favorites over Boston, but I don't believe they will be favorites by much. I'd be very surprised if the odds against the Sox in any series were worse than 60/40, and think it probably maxes out at more like 55/45. Is a 45% chance to win really so bad as to instill fear?
Then again, if being not being scared means "I think the Sox are unlikely to lose to this team," then likewise I don't see how any playoff team could fail to scare you. I could see an argument for the A's without Manaea or the Yankees if Judge doesn't get back to full production and/or Severino continues to struggle, but I'd be surprised if even those teams are worse than a 60/40 dog to the Sox. And I'd be surprised if either Cleveland or Houston were any more than a 55/45 dog to the Sox. Just as it's unfair to say that the Sox are unlikely to win a series where they are disadvantaged by similar percentages, it's also unfair to say that the Sox are unlikely to lose such a series.
Any of these teams could beat the Sox and likewise the Sox could beat any of them. Going into that situation either afraid or confident just tells me that you either are either grossly exaggerating the odds or have a very low or very high tolerance for uncertainty.
So, if being scared means "I think the Sox are unlikely to beat this team," then I don't see how any team in baseball could qualify. There might be teams that are favorites over Boston, but I don't believe they will be favorites by much. I'd be very surprised if the odds against the Sox in any series were worse than 60/40, and think it probably maxes out at more like 55/45. Is a 45% chance to win really so bad as to instill fear?
Then again, if being not being scared means "I think the Sox are unlikely to lose to this team," then likewise I don't see how any playoff team could fail to scare you. I could see an argument for the A's without Manaea or the Yankees if Judge doesn't get back to full production and/or Severino continues to struggle, but I'd be surprised if even those teams are worse than a 60/40 dog to the Sox. And I'd be surprised if either Cleveland or Houston were any more than a 55/45 dog to the Sox. Just as it's unfair to say that the Sox are unlikely to win a series where they are disadvantaged by similar percentages, it's also unfair to say that the Sox are unlikely to lose such a series.
Any of these teams could beat the Sox and likewise the Sox could beat any of them. Going into that situation either afraid or confident just tells me that you either are either grossly exaggerating the odds or have a very low or very high tolerance for uncertainty.
I'd say "scared" means "I really want the Sox to win and these teams make me worry they won't." But IMHO we entitled Boston sports fans (self included) need to appreciate the unpredictability of baseball and talk ourselves into enjoying the ride. Last year it seemed like they were marching to their doom, but this time it should be good, fun baseball, even (straining a little) if the Sox don't win. In other words, embrace the uncertainty, enjoy playoff baseball (which is hands down my favorite fan experience) and be glad the Sox are in it with a meaningful chance to win.
Houston is the only other great team, but anybody can beat ya in a given series. Sox can hang with Houston if that's where the ALCS ends up. If it turns out that way, I'd be pretty surprised if that series doesn't go at least 6.
I totally agree with the latter sentiment. This season has been a historically amazing ride even if the Sox flame out in the playoffs, imo. But yeah, if that is your definition of scared then you should probably be worried no matter what team the Sox face (at least in the playoffs, the odds of losing 3 out of 5 to Baltimore would be pretty low I think XD)
If the teams are evenly matched and each game is a coinflip, then there should be about a 37.5% chance that the series ends in 5 games or less. Of course, in reality even if the teams are evenly matched overall it's unlikely that the actual game odds are exactly 50/50 each time, but I'd be willing to bet that for two even true talent level teams the odds of a 7 game series looking lopsided are probably between 30 and 40% or so.
There is definitely a sense in which Billy Beane is right, and the playoffs are a crapshoot. It's only a handful of games, so the weird luck is amplified: borderline strike calls, ground balls taking bad hops off the lip of the infield grass, popups getting lost in the lights. In contrast, over 162 games, you expect those things to even out.
But the odds are only as close to even in a given regular season game because, on any given night, there's no guarantee that both teams are trying equally hard to win that particular game. Mostly this is because of the vicissitudes involved in running a pitching staff. An example: we've played the Orioles 16 times. Our team is historically good; theirs is historically bad. But we haven't swept those 16 games — we've gone 14-2, even while we've scored 99 runs and conceded 51, an outlandish run differential of almost three runs per game. The shared factor in those two losses? Both games were started by Drew Pomeranz. In a hypothetical seven-game playoff series between the 2018 vintages of Boston and Baltimore, Pomeranz doesn't start. He might face a few batters as a situational lefty. Instead Boston starts Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez against — I don't know — Cobb, Gausman, Bundy and Cashner? It's extremely likely that that ends in a sweep.
This an extreme example, but it bears keeping in mind even as we consider our playoff odds against the actual teams that we'll be facing. Chris Sale is a big part of any list of reasons the Sox are contenders, but because of his missed time, he's started as many games against (let's say) NY in the twelve games we've played them so far as he likely would in a five game set. In those games, he's conceded 1 run in 13 IP, striking out 19. 17% of our regular season starts against NY have come from Sale, in an ALDS matchup it would be perhaps 40%. That's a big difference.
I think there is a great possibility of meeting The A's in the LDS. I don't believe they can catch Astros but in a one game play-off which could very well be in the Coliseum. I'd give the edge to A's over the Yankees. They have a slight edge in pitching and have the power to go along. Have to believe Sox win the LDS and are headed for a showdown with Astros in the ALCS
The A's are hot and seem to have a legitimate chance of catching the Astros, meaning the Sox would get the Houston/New York Wild Card winner.
Two questions if this happened:
1) Would anyone here root for the Yankees to knock off Houston?
2) Would Houston present more of a challenge in the 5 game series than a 7 game?
Bonus Question: Why don't I just relax and enjoy the season instead of playing what ifs while I wait for October.
Two questions if this happened:
1) Would anyone here root for the Yankees to knock off Houston?
2) Would Houston present more of a challenge in the 5 game series than a 7 game?
Bonus Question: Why don't I just relax and enjoy the season instead of playing what ifs while I wait for October.
1: Hell yes.
2: I don't think so, because the one thing I think they clearly have over us is pitching depth, and the longer the series goes, the more chance that has to tell.
Bonus: Because you're a Red Sox fan.
I always want to see the team I’m rooting for win. If that means that the “best” competition loses out in a wild card type scenario so be it.
I think it's going a bit overlooked somehow, but the Astros are 17-4 since Altuve came back, they are at least as hot as Oakland.