Who do you Promise?

[bakahump]

I know that life's unsure and that either of these guys would be stupid to pass up a "good" opportunity NOW for the "promise" of the Pats HC position in @4 years. But bare with me...

Assume that one of McD or Patricia is getting the promise as heir apparent. Who does BB and Kraft choose? Why?

Make your case.

 

[Otis Foster]

Whoever can convince Scarnecchia to re-up.

Edit: More to the point, McDaniel, His offensive planning and interaction with Brady has been invaluable. IIRC, BB got his training on the defensive side, and can more easily supplement a new defensive coach, assuming Patricia is odd man out. Very hard to replace McDaniel.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I went with Patricia. TB12 is likely to leave at about the same time as BB, if not before, so that means having a new quarterback running the show. For me, the best way to make like easier for a new QB is to have continuity on defense. You're not getting Brady 2.0 under center, so the McDaniels offense with a new coordinator would be a work in progress. A defense that emphasizes points allowed makes life easier for the offense.

 

[H78]

Patricia because of everything Yaz said.

 

[Saints Rest]

I'd say Josh if I were convinced that learning to fail in Denver will better position to succeed in his next go-round.

I'd say Matt if I thought that Josh's experience in Denver suggests he can't make the jump from OC to HC (cf. Norv Turner among others for proof of this).

I'd say Matt if I thought that his overall intelligence (degree in astrophysics) suggests that he is better situated to learn the complexities of being a HC.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

McD.

And I'm keeping my clothes on, thankyouverymuch

 

[E5 Yaz]

McD.

And I'm keeping my clothes on, thankyouverymuch

We thank you, too

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Patricia because of everything Yaz said.

Patricia, because of everything H78 said.

Edit: Also because he's a rocket scientist. Did you know he's a rocket scientist? Ian Eagle tells me every week he's a rocket scientist.

 

[bakahump]

And he drinks Redbull!

I want to keep Patricia.
I worry the timeline wont work out though. I suspect someone will knock his socks off with an offer and he will have to jump. I am hoping that he fails as McD did and learns "on someone elses dime" and comes back (ala McD or similar to what BB did with Parcells). This kind of timeline makes some sense.

HC Job in 2017 (or 18)
Fired in 2020
Back to the Pats as Asst HC and DC and takes over for BB in 2021 or 2022 (with BB as president or something for a couple years).

McD does seem like Norv to me. Plus I have more faith that Brady made him look good then that McD made Brady look good. That Said he did get the 2 Career years out of Kyle Orton.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Patricia, on the basis that he's more likely to be able to build a Bill Botichick to coach the Patriots forever.

On a more serious note, this is tougher to answer than I would have thought. McDaniels would need GM powers, and he drafted Tim Tebow. But it's also easier to draw a straight line between him and the elite unit he coaches than it is for Patricia and the very good unit he coaches, if you assume heavier BB influence on that side of the ball. Of course, McD has his own ace in the hole in the GQBOAT. Which one will be able to make the BBesque cutthroat decisions that prove to be smart in the long-run? Who keeps the ship running the way it does now (tbh the answer to these two questions is probably neither)?

Bill Botichick is still looking pretty good.

 

[theapportioner]

Honestly I'm pretty indifferent. The people that have come from Belichick's coaching tree haven't exactly had a ton of success head coaching at the NFL level. What makes McDaniels round 2, or Patricia, more likely to succeed?

 

[dbn]

I'm a big Matt Patricia supporter, but he doesn't have a degree in astrophysics and isn't a rocket scientist. He has an undergraduate degree in aeronautical engineering and is a football coach.

 

[amarshal2]

-I'm more impressed with the offensive play calling and schemes than the defensive ones (but what do I know).

-Patricia seems more like a "family atmosphere" type of guy and I want a HC with a little more distance to push the guys rather than be their best friend. Look at the best coaches in the NFL and college -- only Pete Carroll seems to win with the best friend approach. His teams are honestly kind of a mess but the individuals are so self motivated it works.

-McD has tried and sort of failed. He has mistakes to learn from. He's shown improvement throughout his second tenure. Patricia will be making his rookie mistakes with the team that hires him.

Give me McD

edit: One of my lessons from grad school I've found to be true was in a class learning how to build/judge new ventures. The professor asked how many points we should award for someone going to Harvard Business School? The answer was zero. What does somebody at HBS really know about building a company? This is even easier when you're talking about engineering degrees and football. I just don't care/it's not relevant.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Patricia seems to have the work ethic. I like him.

 

[nothumb]

We really don't know enough about how things go behind the scenes to say anything. I think it's very possible that the answer here is "neither" - BB may want to coach longer than either of them wants to wait, and there's always the risk of things going south before that.

But, assuming you knew an end date for BB and both guys were cool with it, I think I would lean Patricia. It's just very hard to evaluate McD outside of what Brady has meant to him. A lot of OCs have landed head coaching gigs after working with great QBs, and most of them have not been that great. But really, the info you need to make that call is kept within the walls of the Blade, and I'm sure BB will know the answer when he steps away, if those guys are still there at that point.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Patricia here.

The Patriots defense has been pretty mediocre for a long time, and as he's gotten more control, they've gotten better. I also think that in the modern NFL with offensive rules the way they are, it's a tougher job.


McDaniels does a pretty good job, and he's creative, but I've always felt that he doesn't do a particularly good job adjusting to changes in situation (especially in-game). His time in Denver kind of reinforced that to me - he seemed to want to make the talent adjust to him, and not the other way.

I have a tough time evaluating either one, simply because the franchise has gone periods without an OC or DC, with BB running things, and done well, and I have no idea how much he is still involved on each side. McDaniels has also spent his career coaching the best QB of all time - so that has made his job easier.

 

[GregHarris]

The answer is Steve Belichick.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I'd say Patricia. Knowing as little as we do from the comfort of our couches it is pretty hard to really assess the details of their impact, but a guy who gets to hitch his cart to TB seems far more likely to succeed than not. He also looks quite a bit better with Dante running the line.

I remember thinking that Charlie Weiss was an absolute genius, by gosh! He too may have been helped being around TB and BB?

 

[mauf]

Patricia.

Maybe McD is better than he showed in Denver, but that's the best evidence we've got -- TB12 made Charlie Weis look like a genius.

Edit: or, what wiffleballhero said.

 

[patinorange]

The answer is Steve Belichick.

Good call. Lets hope it somewhere in the 2023-2025 range.

 

[bankshot1]

McD is gone.

And so will TB12, before too long,

and Bird, McHale and Parrish aren't walking through the door.

So having the the next GOAT is unlikely

and

Defense wins championships

Patricia

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Patricia seems to have the work ethic. I like him.

Just out of curiosity, what are you basing this on? Or at least in relation to McD's work ethic? Do you have some kind of insight?

 

[RIrooter09]

This picture most likely.

 

[lexrageorge]

It's a poll with no bad choices. I voted Patricia for the following reasons:

1.) My assumption is that McDaniels is gone after this year. Whereas I can see Patricia be willing to wait around a couple of years if he felt he had a decent shot of becoming the Head Hoodie.

2.) I'm a graduate of Patricia's alma mater.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It's a poll with no bad choices. I voted Patricia for the following reasons:

1.) My assumption is that McDaniels is gone after this year. Whereas I can see Patricia be willing to wait around a couple of years if he felt he had a decent shot of becoming the Head Hoodie.

I see it the opposite way. I think McDaniels probably learned his lesson a bit in Denver and will be a bit more measured in his next venture. I'm not sure he will stick around long enough to be the BB replacement, but none of the openings available right now seem to scream 'great opportunity'. Denver looks good but obviously not a likely option.

Patricia I think can and should take what he can get for a first shot and get some money. He's at his peak right now, in my opinion and should capitalize on it.

Further, I look around the league and see very few coaches I would want to run my team that were first time guys. Tomlin, Harbaugh, Arians, Payton. I'd have taken Reid on his first run, Fox. Lewis I have a better opinion of than most. So typing it out maybe it's more than I thought, but with BB involved, I think he would put some weight into 'I learned a lot about what I did wrong and I'm better for it'.

All conjecture and speculation, but I'd go with McDaniels. Knocking him for having Brady seems foolish in my mind, especially in comparison to Patricia who before this year hadn't really had even a top 5 D.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Just out of curiosity, what are you basing this on? Or at least in relation to McD's work ethic? Do you have some kind of insight?

Umm...basically just videos I've seen from after their super bowl win? Seemed like he had Bill's work ethic, which may be forced on him by Bill, I'm not sure. Just seems to be 24/7 football but maybe I'm wrong :/

 

[dcmissle]

Promise nothing to anyone.

I do, though, take BB at his word that he won't be HCing in his 70s. Enjoy what's left.

 

[Stitch01]

Not sure I agree with that. Maybe promise isnt the right word, and maybe the organizational structure shifts some of the personnel/GM responsibilities away from the head coach, but BB grooming his successor from within seems pretty logical. If the team thinks Patricia or McDaniels is the right guy, grooming one as successor seems like a pretty good alternative. Maybe too far out if BB is going to coach five more years, but I think they'll start on that process years out.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

I'd take Patricia.
McD is game planning for TB, so anything McD can design, Brady can implement. Dante's return has also benefited McD greatly.
Patricia has built a defense that has allowed the fewest points of any team in the last 3 years and he has done it without a superstar. If McD leaves after this season and BB wants to make Patricia the hair apparent, maybe Patricia is named assistant HC in charge of the defense with a big bump in pay.

 

[dcmissle]

Expanding on my post above.

A problem with promises is you should keep them. That is not only the honorable course, but also the smart course in the long run. Altruism and self interest ultimately align.

So here is the problem. BB is 64. He easily could HC 5 more years. And it is entirely conceivable, perhaps even probable, that the ideal BB successor (if there is such a thing) is entirely unknown to us now.

 

[Super Nomario]

Not sure I agree with that. Maybe promise isnt the right word, and maybe the organizational structure shifts some of the personnel/GM responsibilities away from the head coach, but BB grooming his successor from within seems pretty logical. If the team thinks Patricia or McDaniels is the right guy, grooming one as successor seems like a pretty good alternative. Maybe too far out if BB is going to coach five more years, but I think they'll start on that process years out.

I think the bolded is an important point. Belichick is not just the head coach but the de facto GM - he is the ultimate football decision-maker for the organization. I don't have any issues with the Patriots run things, but not everyone is Belichick. One of the keys to their success is the trust and working relationship between Kraft and Belichick. It is apparent from reading the Holley books and other sources that Kraft did not 100% trust Parcells to act in the franchise's best long-term interests, nor did he see Carroll as that kind of head of football. By the same token, Belichick got burned by Modell and didn't trust the Jets' ownership situation when he left there (Woody Johnson bought the Jets 15 days after BB resigned); in Kraft he found an owner he could co-exist with long-term.

So I think we ought to be thinking not about "who will be head coach after Belichick retires?" but "who will run the New England Patriots from a football standpoint after Belichick retires?" And the key decision-maker there is not Belichick, and it is probably more Jonathan Kraft than Robert. Maybe he has a great relationship and trust with McDaniels, or Patricia, or maybe it's Nick Caserio. Or maybe the Krafts put their trust in Belichick and defer to his choice, or maybe they have a search committee and decide there's an opportunity for some fresh blood. But I don't think it's as simple as plugging in a new head coach.

 

[Jnai]

I don't really see Belichick ever taking a post-coach football President job, and I don't think he's going anywhere soon.

So, I'm not sure that either of these guys make sense. The timeline is too short.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I'm in the neither category. I really cannot assess whether either is likely to make the jump from coordinator to HC successfully. In my view, the jobs are very different. Managing an entire operation and being the ultimate decision maker on everything (especially if you are also ultimately in charge of buying the groceries) is just so different than running one of the three phases.

Make no mistake, I don't want to lose either. The Pats' system is clicking beautifully now and BB and the players having to adjust to a new guy on either side of the ball could set them back.

But if forced to choose, I would push to keep Josh because I assume Bill has more input on the defensive side of the ball and that Josh would therefore be a bigger loss.

The guy I really hope they go to extremes to keep is Caserio. He seems to be a guy who BB leans on a lot. I wish the Pats would just give him the GM title and match any compensation that another team is likely to offer. In truth, they probably have other guys who can step in but the Pats' personnel moves over the last several years have been excellent. Another factor is how many guys would Caserio take...would this be like Theo cherry picking his favorite guys from baseball ops?

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

We have seen Patricia develop along side a defense with a lot of young players. Did he help the defense grow or did the defense help him grow? Either way over the past few years we've watched Patricia develop a defense with a lot of new parts, some old, some young.

Brady has been the constant for McDaniels. We've never seen if McDaniels can develop a QB. Unless you want to give him credit for Jimmy G., which might be a valid argument.

In the post Bill/Tom era developing the next QB is going to be priority #1. Developing a good defense is priority #1.5.

I have no idea if Patricia can develop a QB or not. But I've seen him develop a defensive player like Hightower and I'd hope he is smart enough to surround him with the right QB people/coaches when the time comes.

So from a player development view I'm taking Patricia as the devil I know.

 

[pedroia'sboys]

Promise nothing to anyone.

I do, though, take BB at his word that he won't be HCing in his 70s. Enjoy what's left.

Neither will be here when BB leaves. I think Bill is full of it. What's he gonna do when he retires catch a couple blues on his boat in nantucket. Football has been his life since age 6. He loves it, it's not work for him. Even if he retires at 70. I can't see Patricia being here, they would have to hire him or MCD back.

 

[BigJimEd]

The guy I really hope they go to extremes to keep is Caserio. He seems to be a guy who BB leans on a lot. I wish the Pats would just give him the GM title and match any compensation that another team is likely to offer. In truth, they probably have other guys who can step in but the Pats' personnel moves over the last several years have been excellent. Another factor is how many guys would Caserio take...would this be like Theo cherry picking his favorite guys from baseball ops?

I agree on Caserio and think they'll do everything they can to keep him.
They've already had plenty of brain drain in the front office. Pioli, Dimitroff, Licht and Quinn to name a few off the top of my head.

On the thread topic, I'm doubtful either will be here when Belichick retires unless they return after a failed head job. I think it's more likely than not that McD is gone after this season.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Patricia.

There is a ton about both guys we cannot know that could easily sway a more informed decision in either direction.

What we do know is that McDaniels failed spectacularly as a HC in Denver and also was a pretty big dud by most accounts (this is often forgotten) as an OC for the Rams the following year. Moreover, the Denver stint wasn't just a run-of-the-mill episode of things not working out. Broncos fan sites are obviously biased in an anti-McDaniels direction at this point but this is still a largely fair (other than the BB sleeper agent nonsense) summary. There is no getting around it: He was straight up awful as a head coach in every non-gameday aspect of the job and he wasn't that great on gameday either. I wouldn't rule out him learning from those experiences and becoming a good HC. But if you're going to place a bet on somebody's ability to be an NFL head coach, the fact that this person's first crack at the position was so problematic - along many different dimensions - is not an encouraging sign.

Ultimately, my hope is that BB stays 3-5 more years, by which time both guys will have long left for other HC jobs.

 

[reggiecleveland]

It is hard to evaluate coaches, but I have a few things I look at.

1. Do teams get better when he arrives?
2. Do players that are unsuccessful elsewhere find success with that coach? Conversely to guys that struggle go elsewhere and have success?
3. Do problems get fixed? Talent is a limiting factor, but do the most glaring problems get rectified?
4. Is there something (a star player, unlimited budget, etc) that may make the person over-rated.

#4 is the only possible tiebreaker with these guys. How smart is JMD when Tom Brady is not his QB? So with the limited info available I would pick the Aeronautical Engineer.

 

[K.C.R.E.A.M.]

The one who didn't get fired by the Broncos for having Dante's son videotape another team's practice. I think it goes without saying that this is the one franchise that shouldn't tempt fate there.

 

[H78]

The correct answer is Patricia, with Bruschi as DC and TB12 as OC

Let's win another five that way.