Which Division Favorite Will Lose?

[jon abbey]

So I thought this might be fun, since every division with the possible exception of the AL East has an overwhelming favorite right now, which do you think will not win their division this year? I will try to set it up so you can pick more than one if you want.

 

[jon abbey]

I voted for all five repeating, but I think that the Astros and Dodgers are locks, the Cubs have some solid teams chasing them but Darvish gave them more of a cushion, and the Nationals and Indians have younger loaded teams chasing them, but none of those teams are probably quite ready to genuinely challenge this year.

 

[snowmanny]

The Yankees are an overwhelming favorite: they went to game 7 of the ALCS and added Stanton. I am hopeful the scrappy underdog Red Sox have a chance.

 

[jon abbey]

The Yankees are an overwhelming favorite: they went to game 7 of the ALCS and added Stanton. I am hopeful the scrappy underdog Red Sox have a chance.

I was trying not to make this yet another AL East-centric topic, so we're only talking about the other five divisions here.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Yankees are an overwhelming favorite: they went to game 7 of the ALCS and added Stanton. I am hopeful the scrappy underdog Red Sox have a chance.

The reason he didn't include the Yankees was that each time he tried, he broke out laughing so hard that he decided to go without. The Yankee poll would be something along the lines of how many regular season wins would be underachieving ... 159, 160 or 161

 

[jon abbey]

If you vote for one or more of these teams, it would be interesting to hear what you expect to happen instead.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

It's time for the Brewers.

 

[dbn]

I voted Cleveland because I didn't want to be lame and say they will all repeat, and I suspect they won't all repeat, but I can't come up with a good reason for any individual one of them to not.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I went with Cleveland. i think they'll miss santana and i like where the twins are headed

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

One of the Phillies, Mets, or Braves will be ahead of schedule and will unseat the Nats.

 

[nvalvo]

Basically all of those teams are favorites for a reason, so I picked them all to repeat. But the team I have the most doubts about is Chicago.

I think the Cubs are strong but brittle, especially on the pitching side. If all three of Lester, Quintana, and Darvish are strong all year, they have a tremendous rotation and should be overwhelming favorites even against good Milwaukee and STL teams, and an okay team in Pittsburgh. But if they face significant injuries on the pitching side, it could get ugly. There's not much cavalry to arrive after Mike Montgomery — so pushing Montgomery to 6th on the depth chart was a big deal.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The Dodgers. Kershaw will continue to struggle with staying healthy and that rotation behind him is good but not great. The Diamondbacks, even without JDM returning, will be raising a banner.

 

[Wingack]

It's time for the Brewers.

I voted Cubs because I agree with this.

 

[Plympton91]

I think the Sodgers are very overrated due to pitching staff health, the loss of Morrow’s Tremendous year, and the lack of depth behind their offensive stars, so I went with them

I would classify the Yankees as overwhelming favorites in the AL East as well. Their lineup and bullpen and depth are unrivaled.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Those of you saying the Yankees are division favorites obviously think they'll win the division, thus disqualifying them from discussion in this thread.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I voted Cubs because they have the most competition, but the Dodgers will have to put in some actual work as well.

I'm really disappointed the Indians basically punted their off-season, but I think they're probably still the least likely favorite to lose their division. The Twins pitching staff is still a dumpster fire, they can't attract free agents, and Sano hasn't been cleared of disciplinary action for sexual assault. The other three teams in the AL Central aren't even trying to win. It would take a half-dozen serious injuries for the Indians to miss the playoffs.

*

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I went with the Dodgers as well. AZ and CO were both playoff teams last year, and SF should have a healthy Bumgarner back. That’s a load more competition than most of the rest of the division-winner teams have to contend with.

I think the Cubs edge the Brewers because of having a deeper rotation and bullpen, but both should make the playoffs.

Houston, Cleveland, and Washington are likely locks, unless catastrophic injuries hit.

 

[Wingack]

Those of you saying the Yankees are division favorites obviously think they'll win the division, thus disqualifying them from discussion in this thread.

Well, the difference between the Yankees and the teams listed in the poll is that they did not win their division last year, so it is hard to say that the favorites and that them losing would be an "unseating."

 

[DanoooME]

I went with the Dodgers because they lost some of their SP depth to trades and the 5 guys they still have around, while all range from good to amazing, they were all on the DL at some point last year. Their depth starts with 2 kids and then a bunch of dreck, including Henry Owens. They are going to need depth and they'll probably have to trade for it mid-season. Plus the Dodgers have the toughest competition within their division on paper.

 

[rhswanzey]

Even though there may not be a clear reason to argue that any specific one of these teams will fall short, I'm curious how anyone would justify voting for all five of those teams winning divisions. We ought to know baseball better than that by now. My guess is if you went year-by-year and found near-consensus preseason favorites vs. end of year results, success rate on predictions would be well below 83.3% (i.e. five of six correct division winner predictions) over the course of the three division era. There are just too many injuries, out-of-nowhere performers and out-of-nowhere regression/declines to predict this sport without significant error bars.

I went with the Cubs since they will get pushed hard by the Cards (and the Brewers have obviously pushed chips in), but I would take the "one surprise division winner" bet every time. Look no further than last year when four teams significantly outperformed expectations (Yankees, Brewers, Rockies, Dbacks). Of course, last year's standings punch a giant hole in my contention, but I would guess that the "one surprise" bet is successful more often than not.

 

[jon abbey]

Even though there may not be a clear reason to argue that any specific one of these teams will fall short, I'm curious how anyone would justify voting for all five of those teams winning divisions. We ought to know baseball better than that by now. My guess is if you went year-by-year and found near-consensus preseason favorites vs. end of year results, success rate on predictions would be well below 83.3% (i.e. five of six correct division winner predictions) over the course of the three division era. There are just too many injuries, out-of-nowhere performers and out-of-nowhere regression/declines to predict this sport without significant error bars.

Well, not sure how much historical precedent matters as I think we're in an era where the smartest front offices have built teams that are absolutely loaded, not just at the major league level but in the minor leagues behind them. The PECOTA predictions that came out this week have CLE winning their division by 16 games, HOU by 16 games, WAS by 8 games, CHI by 5 games (pre-Darvish), and LA by 13 games. That's a lot of ground to make up, we will see if anyone is able to do it.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

[jon abbey]

And yes, if the choices were "are all five of these teams going to win?" or not, I'm sure 'not' would win overwhelmingly, but picking which you think won't is much more interesting, I think.

 

[rhswanzey]

I'm thinking about this recent article by Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs, where even in the era of the super team, it's worth keeping in mind that empirically, error bars for wins and losses around the median team projection are seven wins/losses in either direction.

Looking at the overall sample, the average error has been about seven wins, with a median of six. Looking at just the last five years, the average error is still about seven wins, with a median of five. I don’t think we’re yet to the point where we can assign individual teams specific and individual error bars, but we know there are error bars, and they’re fairly long. It might be our own fault for not displaying any. That probably serves to suggest we have more confidence in our projected midpoints. But take a look at our Steamer-projected standings. Imagine that every projection could be off by seven wins. There’s only a 12-win difference between, say, the Red Sox and the Rays. Same with the Indians and the Twins. Fifteen wins would presently separate the Dodgers from fourth place. We know that there are some obvious favorites. They’re just all more vulnerable than they appear.

And yes, if the choices were "are all five of these teams going to win?" or not, I'm sure 'not' would win overwhelmingly, but picking which you think won't is much more interesting, I think.

You're right, and yeah, it is definitely much harder to say "this team will underperform" than betting against the pool all meeting or exceeding expectations.

 

[grimshaw]

I think it's pretty likely all 5 repeat, and it may not be close.

I'm not 100% convinced the Astros are a lock though (that award goes to the Nats). The AL West may be a pretty competitive division. The Angels should be a lot better, the Mariners could win 85 or so, and neither the Rangers nor the A's are pushovers.

The Brewers and D-Backs are fun to root for, but I don't think they have enough yet.

 

[mauf]

I said all five would repeat.

I think the Nationals will fail to win 90 games — they’ll roll with 4 regulars age 32 or older, and their top 3 SPs all outpitched their FIP a year ago. That’s a recipe for regression. But I don’t see another team in that division that’s likely to finish with a winning record — odds are one of them will get lucky and win 85 games, but I don’t think that will be quite enough.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I went with the Dodgers because they lost some of their SP depth to trades and the 5 guys they still have around, while all range from good to amazing, they were all on the DL at some point last year. Their depth starts with 2 kids and then a bunch of dreck, including Henry Owens. They are going to need depth and they'll probably have to trade for it mid-season. Plus the Dodgers have the toughest competition within their division on paper.

The thing to keep in mind with the Dodgers' rotation and the DL is that there were plenty of reports about them manipulating the 10 day DL to their advantage to keep pitchers fresh and to rotate their overflow through available starts all year, so I wouldn't necessarily conclude that their missed time was all due to an inability to be on the field.

 

[j-man]

my 02 cents

AL East - Yanks bos has the better pitching pen but unlees judge falls off statnon gets hurt and the yanks gets zero for 3b 2b boston is maxed at 88 Wins

Centeal its Cle div to lose if Cle does not win this div by 12 games something off

west Hou shouild win the AL i ex LAA/SEA to baddle bos in the 1 game playoff

NL East Wash by 15 games
NL Central a 3-team race that favors Cubs
NL West a 4 team race that LA will win NL Wild Game will be STLVS SF

world series rematch but LA will win this time

 

[j-man]

my top 10
1 LAD
2 HOU
3 CHC
4 NYY
5 WASH
6 CLE
7 STL
8 LAA
9 BOS
10 SF

 

[jon abbey]

Not one of these five teams in first early on, Indians and Astros are the closest. Washington is already 7 behind the Mets in the loss column, the Dodgers are way behind Arizona too if that result holds tonight (ARI 5-1 after 5).

 

[jon abbey]

Bump...

Indians and Astros have moved into where we all expected, the Indians are aided by the fact that the only other team in their division not intentionally tanking (the Twins) is unintentionally tanking. The Cubs are also fine, but the Nats and the Dodgers are still both way back, 7 and 6 in the loss column respectively.

 

[Wingack]

Bump...

Indians and Astros have moved into where we all expected, the Indians are aided by the fact that the only other team in their division not intentionally tanking (the Twins) is unintentionally tanking. The Cubs are also fine, but the Nats and the Dodgers are still both way back, 7 and 6 in the loss column respectively.

I think the Nats could be in trouble because the rest of the division (Mets, Phils, Braves) seem to have really improved, making it a tougher fight for them. To be fair to them though, half their offense has been hurt.

 

[grimshaw]

I think the Nats could be in trouble because the rest of the division (Mets, Phils, Braves) seem to have really improved, making it a tougher fight for them. To be fair to them though, half their offense has been hurt.

I think they'll be ok. That is a ton of talent missing on offense and they are only 6 back. They also still have Robles in their back pocket.

The pen hasn't been good and could keep them out of being contenders if they don't fix it, but aside from that the rotation has more or less performed as expected.

I don't think the Braves have the pitching to keep up either. Plus Markakis, Suzuki and Albies who is slugging .622 are hitting way above their heads.

 

[Wingack]

Robles is hurt and basically out for the year.

 

[jon abbey]

Dodgers lose Seager for the year and lose to Arizona again, 1-6 now against them so far this season. They play the next three nights also, and with LA already 8 back, they are in a big hole and need to turn things around ASAP, Kershaw going tomorrow.

 

[Gdiguy]

Dodgers lose Seager for the year and lose to Arizona again, 1-6 now against them so far this season. They play the next three nights also, and with LA already 8 back, they are in a big hole and need to turn things around ASAP, Kershaw going tomorrow.

I think there the question is more whether you believe AZ is for real - the rest of the division has been poor and is easy to catch, but AZ is a bit all over the place. Fangraphs has them projected as a 500 team going forward (and thus has AZ tied with LA for the overall season), whereas 538 thinks they're near the top of MLB and projects 96 wins. I haven't watched enough to have a good opinion either way.

 

[sean1562]

Weren’t the Dodgers terrible for a spell last year before going on a historic run? We were just up like 7 on the yanks before their 9 game streak. Let’s see if Patrick Corbin is for real

 

[grimshaw]

Things are slowly getting back to normal.

The Nats are now 1/2 game out. The Cubs and Dodgers are 3 and 2.5 games out respectively.
The Indians are now in first, and the Astros are tied.

The NL is really exciting even if none of the teams are close to the top 3 AL in talent. Hell even the Padres are 5.5 out.

Despite all the talk of haves and have nots all 6 divisions have a race.

 

[jon abbey]

Dodgers lose yet another SP, Walker Buehler with a microfractured rib after being hit with a line drive. Matt Kemp and Max Muncy are keeping them in it, not sure how that is happening.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The Indians pretty much wrapped up the AL Central when they sent the Tigers into a tailspin a couple weeks ago, and now lead the division by 11.5 games. Since the Twins continue their alternating tradition of being the most over/underachieving team in the league each year, Cleveland will be the only AL Central team with a winning record.

No other division leader has more than a 1.5 game cushion. That said, the Nats look like the only favorite in serious trouble so far, sitting in 3rd place and 7 games out. At 42-43, they're the only preseason favorite with a losing record.

*

 

[z-factor]

It's interesting to revisit this thread. Heading into the last month, the collective wisdom was only half correct: Cleveland will easily win their division. And Houston and Chicago are leading, but only 3.5 to 4 games up with good wild-card teams trying to overtake them. (I won't mention the AL East since we talk about it in several other threads.) But last winter, I would not have guessed the Braves or Rockies to be leading their division -- I hope they hold on. Nats are toast. But can the Dodgers pull it out?

 

[AB in DC]

Yeah, I'm still baffled at what happened to the Nationals. They got decimated by injuries very early, but later on, the healthier they got, the worse they played.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

The Yankees are an overwhelming favorite: they went to game 7 of the ALCS and added Stanton. I am hopeful the scrappy underdog Red Sox have a chance.

not sure if ironic at the time or not

 

[Plympton91]

I said all five would repeat.

I think the Nationals will fail to win 90 games — they’ll roll with 4 regulars age 32 or older, and their top 3 SPs all outpitched their FIP a year ago. That’s a recipe for regression. But I don’t see another team in that division that’s likely to finish with a winning record — odds are one of them will get lucky and win 85 games, but I don’t think that will be quite enough.

Good call Mauf. The 2018 Nats have been one of the most maddening teams to root for. It has been a little like the 2014 Red Sox, where I just kept waiting for a 10 game winning streak that never came, and then they tanked the deadline.

 

[z-factor]

One more preseason favorite drops.
One more to go.
Go Rockies.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Step up and collect your prize if you had Brewers / Red Sox as the two top seeds.