When do we start thinking about trading away Jon Lester?
- Thread starter Curll
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I'd want at least a 2nd prospect in that deal because of that second sentence.Curll said:
Isn't it possible that Cecchini can just take that spot though? He's not destroying AAA and he's injured right now, IIRC but the season isn't over yet so he may end up being a better option than signing a long term 3rd baseman.bosockboy said:
As much as I dislike the #1 v. #2 debate, Lester keeps registering for me as a #2. Today is a good case in point (his inability to focus after a bad strike call aside).
Lester is clearly able to put it together for stretches of time, during which he's dominant. Lester is also clearly a head-case who gets rattled and is pretty much guaranteed to have periodic shit tests (not losses, but meltdown shit tests). I'd rather have Lackey instead of Lester attempt to "break" a losing streak. FWIW. Today just further cements Lester as a sort of "yeah, he's good, but. . ." pitcher for me. Not to sound overly dramatic, but the Sox went on a ten game losing streak, followed by a seven game winning streak, followed by a three game losing streak. If there was ever a time for a pitcher to seize the moment, and reverse the fortunes of the club (so as to keep them in contention), it was today. At the end of the day, there's a lot of factors that cut against Lester - catcher, umpire, BABIP. But, ultimately, Lester is the guy who can make the final call regarding what and how he chooses to throw.
I guess my point is that Lester isn't the kind of guy who I feel has posted up excellent, consistent, craftsman like outings, which showcases the best of his ability, regardless of the catcher, or the umpires, or the run support. He's the kind of guy who gives highly variable outings.
What that means on the trade market, I can't say. But I wouldn't be in a hurry to extend the guy either. There will always be "blips" with Lester. The savy clubs will figure out when in his career the "blips" will start eating the season from under the club.
Edit - "fests" not "tests"
Lester is clearly able to put it together for stretches of time, during which he's dominant. Lester is also clearly a head-case who gets rattled and is pretty much guaranteed to have periodic shit tests (not losses, but meltdown shit tests). I'd rather have Lackey instead of Lester attempt to "break" a losing streak. FWIW. Today just further cements Lester as a sort of "yeah, he's good, but. . ." pitcher for me. Not to sound overly dramatic, but the Sox went on a ten game losing streak, followed by a seven game winning streak, followed by a three game losing streak. If there was ever a time for a pitcher to seize the moment, and reverse the fortunes of the club (so as to keep them in contention), it was today. At the end of the day, there's a lot of factors that cut against Lester - catcher, umpire, BABIP. But, ultimately, Lester is the guy who can make the final call regarding what and how he chooses to throw.
I guess my point is that Lester isn't the kind of guy who I feel has posted up excellent, consistent, craftsman like outings, which showcases the best of his ability, regardless of the catcher, or the umpires, or the run support. He's the kind of guy who gives highly variable outings.
What that means on the trade market, I can't say. But I wouldn't be in a hurry to extend the guy either. There will always be "blips" with Lester. The savy clubs will figure out when in his career the "blips" will start eating the season from under the club.
Edit - "fests" not "tests"
You keep pointing this out, and I'll admit it's valid, but what are the Red Sox supposed to do for next season? Trading Lester wouldn't occur in a vacuum. The majority of the rotation is a wild card and Lackey is getting older.Curll said:
Yes. If they traded Lester it is unlikely they could get anyone in return that would help them in 2015. For half a season with no compensation we are probably looking at a couple of B+ level AA prospects. To me working on the extension and taking the draft pick if they can't sign him makes as much sense as anything.
You may be correct that they could get more but I don't think we've had a premium free-agent to be traded at the deadline under the new compensation rules. They'd probably get more if the receiving team was able to negotiate an extension.Papelbon's Poutine said:
I wonder if the receiving team would account for the fact that they could then sign him without giving up their own first round draft pick and pool money? Maybe the Sox could get more if they allowed a negotiating window? Of course, unless the Red Sox think they're better off giving up their 2nd round pick (they'll have a protected first at the rate they're going) to sign Shields or Scherzer they should be the ones signing Lester and then fix the offense.
Lester is a stone cold killer in the post season. A true ace is someone that you can put in any situation and expect him to give you a chance to win. Jon Lester is that guy and only gets better as the stakes get higher. Since the Sox are 8 games out and "blow it up mania" is running wild on this board again think about this logically. How easy is it to find one pitcher let alone two (Lester/Lackey) that have an excellent post season track record? The reason why they are 8 games back is because of their lineup.
Boston is a big market team that shouldn't just accept that Lester is leaving at the end of the season so they "need to get the best return they can get now." Get a bat or two and make a run at this the wild card lead is hardly insurmountable. All it takes is one big winning streak at this point.
Boston is a big market team that shouldn't just accept that Lester is leaving at the end of the season so they "need to get the best return they can get now." Get a bat or two and make a run at this the wild card lead is hardly insurmountable. All it takes is one big winning streak at this point.
There would be more post seasons, and no 10-game losing streaks, if Jon could be a little more consistently stone cold during the regular season.
That said, I'm for extending him at the full going rate for number two starters. I think Jon is pricing himself as a number one and even with the 'discount' it's too rich for a number two.
That said, I'm for extending him at the full going rate for number two starters. I think Jon is pricing himself as a number one and even with the 'discount' it's too rich for a number two.
MuzzyField said:
What's your denominator, though? Lester so far this year has started 14 games and only 3 have not been solid by any reasonable standard. I don't think he's significantly less consistent than other sub-elite starting pitchers. He's not Kershaw, but he's not going to be paid like that, either.
From 2012 through 2014--and you could argue that this is a pretty unfair slice, since it includes what is increasingly looking like an outlier 2012 year with only one other full season to offset it--Lester ranks #7 in the AL in pitcher WAR and #16 in SIERA. If that's not quite a #1 it's a top-tier #2--a 2-plus if you will.
To me Lester seems like the guy you stick with, not the guy you sell high on. He's had exactly one bad season, which was mostly the product of one horrible month. Other than that, he's been a consistently good-to-excellent pitcher from year to year. He's a quintessential horse; the fewest innings he has pitched in any season since he became a full-time starter in 2008 is 191. And he seems to have the body, the delivery and the repertoire to sustain that workload going forward.
(Edited to remove hyperbole....)
I agree with you. I just don't view him as elite, regardless of his post-season reputation. However, he is the best starting pitcher the Sox currently employ and an elite innings eater.
Jon is very good and since the are no Pedro's to trade for or Roger's ready to call-up, the Sox need to extend him. If this doesn't get done by All-Star beak time, he's probably gone (my guess to the MFY's) and then you need the kids to be really good to fill up to four spots in the rotation for 2015, five if Lackey 'retires'.
Until their performances and health prove othwise, I'm counting Clay and Felix as question marks. Question marks that limit the expendability of pitching assets to acquire a much needed outfield bat.
Jon is very good and since the are no Pedro's to trade for or Roger's ready to call-up, the Sox need to extend him. If this doesn't get done by All-Star beak time, he's probably gone (my guess to the MFY's) and then you need the kids to be really good to fill up to four spots in the rotation for 2015, five if Lackey 'retires'.
Until their performances and health prove othwise, I'm counting Clay and Felix as question marks. Question marks that limit the expendability of pitching assets to acquire a much needed outfield bat.
Given that they've unveiled two more potential infield studs this year, would Texas trade Profar for Lester? Would that be enough?
Why would the Red Sox want Profar anyway? He's seriously injured, plays positions that the Sox mostly have filled, and hasn't shown that he can hit in the MLB. Granted, that last one is mostly negated because he's not even 22 but he still doesn't seem the best guy to target if they're going to trade Lester.Plympton91 said:
MakMan44 said:
+1. That'd be the ultimate bag of magic beans trade. Maybe it'd pan out, but probably not. I don't think we should even consider trading Lester, especially since he has stated he's open to a hometown discount, but if we did we should look for something more substantial.
Amazing how quickly someone can go from number 1 prospect in all of major league baseball to roster filler around here, as long as they aren't in the Red Sox system. If it's a Red Sox prospect, then they can hit .200 for half a season and still be proclaimed to be "adjusting," as long they get a triple on a dropped fly ball once in a while.
Profar is probably still likely to be better than any current Red Sox minor leaguer not named Betts, he profiles as a better hitter than Marrero with probably better fielding at SS, and Bogaerts can actually play 3B long-term, despite the irrational attachment people have to ensuring he stays at SS.
Profar is probably still likely to be better than any current Red Sox minor leaguer not named Betts, he profiles as a better hitter than Marrero with probably better fielding at SS, and Bogaerts can actually play 3B long-term, despite the irrational attachment people have to ensuring he stays at SS.
Multiple shoulder injuries that cause a player to miss an entire year are pretty scary. It's not like a broken bone or torn ACL. If the Rangers are willing to give him up that's probably not a good sign for his health (and when was the last time a player with such an injury was even traded?).Plympton91 said:
Plympton91 said:
Profar's shoulder injury has basically limited him to second base from now on, from my understanding. As such, he is not a fit for the Red Sox at all.
Plus there's the fact that the Rangers aren't going to be trading anything for a half season of a starting pitcher this year since they're not really contenders.
I would personally rather have Lester locked up for 4-5 years, Cecchini at 3rd and Xander at SS, which is what was coloring my opinion not that I think Profar is "roster filler".Plympton91 said:
Though I do think Toe and Derek bring up better points as to why Profar might be a bad target.
I agree completely, I'd rather sign Lester too, but if they're not going to then....MakMan44 said:
I also agree that Toe and Derek bring up great points, I somehow hadn't heard that Profar's injuries were so serious as to likely limit him to 2B and would probably cost him a full year. In that case, I withdraw my suggestion with prejudice and apologize for the tone of the follow up post.
If this team decides to trade Jon Lester it better be for a legit prospect who can play plus in the corner outfield spots and has the ability to play a decent center field.
Though, the end goal needs to be signing Jon Lester. He's the type of pitcher you can spend 5-6 years trying to replace.
Though, the end goal needs to be signing Jon Lester. He's the type of pitcher you can spend 5-6 years trying to replace.
This post makes no sense, but it illustrates why Lester won't be traded, even if the Sox are out of the race and the FO concludes they won't be bringing him back.SouthernBoSox said:
I realize you want the FO to resign Lester, but once they decide they aren't going to do that, isn't the only question whether the value they receive in trade exceeds the value of a compensatory draft pick? If the Sox are out of contention, extension talks have reached an impasse, and the FO has decided they won't pay Lester what he'll command as a free agent (all three of which are conditions this entire discussion presupposes) then why wouldn't you flip him for, say, a quality RP with 4-5 years of club control* remaining? Sure, Lester is more valuable to the club than any RP, but if the current season is a lost cause and Lester is as good as gone, why not flip him now for the sort of player you hope a pick in the 30s will become in 4-5 years?
That said, if a large proportion of SoSH can't grasp the rationale for such a move, how could the FO ever justify it to the fan base at large? The only way they could do it is if they could acquire someone of Profar's caliber who is a better fit for the team's needs -- and there's zero chance that anyone will give up a player of that caliber for a 2-month rental of Jon Lester.
*- I'm assuming that a quality RP is probably something more than a majority of supplemental picks end up becoming, though I'm aware that this is a situation where the mean exceeds the median -- part of the value of the pick is the slim chance it affords you to draft someone truly special.
I'm definitely in the sign him camp .. 120/6 should do the trick.
If they can't then Lester should and would be the most desirable SP available at the deadline. You would think an A OF prospect would be the target. Something like Lester to the Cardinals for Oscar Taveras (whom the Cards inexplicably don't seem to like)
If they can't then Lester should and would be the most desirable SP available at the deadline. You would think an A OF prospect would be the target. Something like Lester to the Cardinals for Oscar Taveras (whom the Cards inexplicably don't seem to like)
This isn't a serious post, right?BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
There's a middle ground between "quality RP" (which I find hilarious due to the 2 Melancon trades) and a prospect with pink hat appeal that the Red Sox would deal Lester for. I have no idea what an actual deal for Lester would look like, but I would assume a quality return for him would exceed a RP, no matter how good their stats may look on July 31st.maufman said:
Well .. Not really I suppose .. Although the Cards don't seem to have room for him and seem a tad disenchanted. I think the point I was making was that Lester should fetch a hell of a lot more than some middle reliever.MakMan44 said:
People here are talking about giving up 2 or 3 prospects off our top 10 to get Samardzija .. If you were a
contender and were looking for the final piece .. I kind of think Lester would be at the top of anyone's list.
If the Sox decide to trade Lester, then their goal should be to get the maximum return, not simply to get someone better than the supplemental draft pick they would get if he leaves as a free agent. And I'm one of those that believe the Sox would be able to do far better than getting another Melancon for Lester.
EDIT: P.S: I'm not in favor of trading Lester at this time.
EDIT: P.S: I'm not in favor of trading Lester at this time.
If they determine that they are out of contention and that they don't have a chance of extending Lester (or re-signing him in the offseason), I think they should listen to offers. I don't know what the market would be with names like Jeff Samardzija and David Price out there, but the goal should be to find a package like the Garza deal that the Cubs got at the deadline last year - although I think it's going to be very unlikely to find an overpay out there.
Overall though, it seems unlikely that the Sox will be so far away from a wildcard spot to get to that point - plus they seem to think they have a good chance to extend him. It seems more likely that they play the rest of the year out with him leading the rotation, hoping to make a run, and aiming to work out a deal with him.
Overall though, it seems unlikely that the Sox will be so far away from a wildcard spot to get to that point - plus they seem to think they have a good chance to extend him. It seems more likely that they play the rest of the year out with him leading the rotation, hoping to make a run, and aiming to work out a deal with him.