What's up with these Red Sox?

Status
Not open for further replies.

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,798
Springfield, VA
So if they were to keep hitting like this, they're likely to lose a lot of games. But if they keep pitching like this, they're likely to win a ton of games. I think their hitting will improve and their pitching obviously will get significantly worse. Crazy predictions, I know.
But that's breezing past a key distinction.

Pitching has been great, yes, but against weak lineups. Against better hitters, with no change in the quality of pitching, pitching outcomes won't be nearly as good. Pretty straightforward.

The batting has been weak, against...weak pitching? Average pitching? I'm not sure. But unless TB/MIA turn out to have stellar pitching staffs, different opponents won't necessarily make the hitting outcomes any better.

SSS only means that there could be other explanations (bad luck, bad matchups, something in the Florida water) behind the numbers besides poor hitting talent. But that's not the same as saying that a 7-game sample is meaningless. It's not proof of anything, but it's not nothing.

(edit: I really need to proofread before posting.)
.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,871
NYC
I think one thing we can see from here is that the bullpen is vulnerable to LHH.
Agreed, though the LHP bullpen depth chart looks significantly less barren come playoff time when you have the option of the occasional inning from Sale, Price, Pom, EdRo, or Johnson.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,842
AZ
Other than maybe baserunning, one thing that really stands out so far is that Cora seems to be inclined to pull starters earlier rather than risking pulling them too late.

This may well be a SSS issue. It's the first week. But the stats are very telling. Our starters have a sub 1.000 ERA. Our bullpen has a 4.000 ERA. Our starters have been cruising with relatively low pitch counts. When pulled this year they were at: 76, 91, 82, 79, 92, 93, 89. In seven games, we've put 27 innings on bullpen arms. 6 of those were extra innings, but still, that's a lot of innings to put on your bullpen when your starters are cruising. And, extra innings happen.

Plus, all of these games except one were tight. I'm hoping that our bullpen's current ERA is higher than it will be at the end of the year. But even if it's what, 3.50, they are going to give up runs. Maybe Smith and Kelly will get better and Barnes worse, or, whatever, but by and large, year in and year out, if your starters leave in the sixth inning, you're going to give up on average between another run or two for the rest of the game, whatever the name on the back of the jersey.

And, also, our bullpen is not constructed for long relief at the moment but I guess the hope is that with bullpen options like Velezquez, Wright, and Johnson, eventually it will be. Arm fatigue for starters at the end of the year -- especially Sale -- is something to worry about. But, by and large, I tend to think this stuff takes care of itself. There are going to be days when we get 2 innings out of a starter but are still in the game and need 7 innings or more of high-lev bullpen. Starters get 4 days off and I think should be ridden when they can. Again, first week only, but it will be interesting to watch whether this is a philosophy.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,053
I don't agree at all with that premise. They are 5th in the AL in run differential precisely because they have played terrible teams that are collectively 3-11.
Bad teams beat good teams in baseball a lot more than other sports. That's why the biggest betting favorites in baseball are usually around -275 but most are like -120 to -150.

That they are already 4-0 in 1 run games is a bit concerning. They simply can't keep that up all year.
Yes, they won't go undefeated all year in 1 run games, but winning 1 run games isn't concerning. But there are always teams that play way over expected results in 1 run games every year.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
The batting has been weak, against...weak pitching? Average pitching? I'm not sure. But unless TB/MIA turn out to have stellar pitching staffs, different opponents won't necessarily make the hitting outcomes any better.
.
FWIW, FG has the Rays projected to have the 5th-best pitching staff in the AL, so no great shame in struggling a bit against them.

The Marlins, not so much (projected 28th out of 30 in MLB and worst in the NL), but we did actually average 5 and a half runs per game, and OPS'd a respectable .749, in our two games against the Marlins.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,053
Sure and their Pythag record right now is 5-2 which equates to about 97 wins. I'd fully expect them to win 95-105 games if they played TB/MIA all season long. The question is what what will their record be against the rest of the league.
The Sox won the East last year but were under .500 against the last place Orioles. And the last place Tigers. And the under .500 Royals. Yet somehow they were over .500 against the 100 win Indians.

It's baseball. It happens.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Cora is pulling starters early because of the teams' stated goal of going easy on the starting pitchers' arms. The hope is that a Price and a Sale with 30-40 fewer innings thrown in September/October will be a better Price and Sale in September/October. And based on how many pitches they threw in ST, no one would want them to throw 100 pitches in their first couple of regular season starts, either.
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
What would this thread look like if the Sox were 1-6, losing all of their close games so far? Similar SSS arguments for sure along with wailing and gnashing of teeth over a lost season already.

Would the proponents of the SSS argument be the same as those here?

Me? I’m happy the team has banked 6 wins and seems to have great SP as expected. Nevertheless, there have been too few games to make much of an analysis. So, put me in the SSS camp and I would have been in it if we were 1-6 too.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,672
Rogers Park
I think there are a few promising signs:
  • Price appears to be healthy.
  • Bogaerts seems to have adjusted to a new approach, and is getting good results.
  • Betts has great numbers despite having already lost two XBH to remarkable CF play.
  • Devers has looked okay at 3B.
  • Hanley appears to be healthy.
  • Brian Johnson looks good.
  • Barnes has been excellent.
  • Poyner looks like found money, which speaks highly to Cora, Levangie, and the FO’s evaluation and decision making.
And a few less promising signs:
  • Two of our better setup relievers need to get their heads on straight ASAP.
  • Nuñez is playing 2B like Dan Uggla.
  • Cora appears committed to JDM, outfielder, which has already proven costly.
  • Cora can’t seem to figure out a role for Swihart.
 

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,728
This is what happens when there is no baseball for 48 hours. If people want to game thread, let's keep that there. If they want to talk about the manager, do it in that thread. The starters? There's a thread for that.

I'm shutting this one down since it's a megathread in waiting.

If there's something specific you want to start a discussion about, start new threads.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.