They have Nunez at 3B tonight with Holt at 2B. Probably looking at that lineup till Devers comes back.
What’s it all about, Rafi?
- Thread starter DennyDoyle'sBoil
- Start date
The slide was exactly my thought as well. Its probably still sore and this is a great time to take a break.
Any word out there on how severe this is? The rumor about Moustakas has me worried... not just on Rafi for the season, but a pretty crappy trade that'll bring a marginal upgrade.
Figure DD is keeping an eye on Devers’ exit velocity after this shoulder injury. It’s less worrisome than his right shoulder, but for a young guy who’s already had an up and down season, it would be bad if he lost strength in that swing.
I haven’t much entertained the idea of needing third base help this year, but a lingering shoulder injury for a developing young star in a pennant race could do it. Donaldson and Beltre seem far-fetched, but if DD is going over the tax, Eduardo Escobar is another guy I’d want from the one-stop shopping outlet Minnesota Twins.
If Rafi turns out to be fine, great. Then maybe Escobar mercifully ends the Nunez era.
I haven’t much entertained the idea of needing third base help this year, but a lingering shoulder injury for a developing young star in a pennant race could do it. Donaldson and Beltre seem far-fetched, but if DD is going over the tax, Eduardo Escobar is another guy I’d want from the one-stop shopping outlet Minnesota Twins.
If Rafi turns out to be fine, great. Then maybe Escobar mercifully ends the Nunez era.
I’m not sorry. A championship team cannot have Devers hitting .239 with 95 K’s and getting worse.
14 errors in 56 games last year and 21 errors so far this year. The entire team has 48.
Someone in the game thread said his mistake today was the coaches fault. Last I saw, there was no 2nd base coach.
So, what is it that makes Nunez a worse bet than Devers at 3B during the playoffs? Serious question. Fielding, hitting and base running.
I like Rafael as a future fixture. I don’t think I want to depend on him at the hot corner during critical games.
14 errors in 56 games last year and 21 errors so far this year. The entire team has 48.
Someone in the game thread said his mistake today was the coaches fault. Last I saw, there was no 2nd base coach.
So, what is it that makes Nunez a worse bet than Devers at 3B during the playoffs? Serious question. Fielding, hitting and base running.
I like Rafael as a future fixture. I don’t think I want to depend on him at the hot corner during critical games.
I don’t believe DD will either. If he had an 800 OPS it would be one thing, but he’s not doing anything Holt couldn’t do other than the occasional home run. If DD can get a 2b, he can shift Holt to 3rd and platoon with Nunez. Or get Moustakas.
Devers just needs more seasoning.
Apparently, one can have holes in their lineup when one has:
-two of the top 5 outfielders in baseball
-the top DH
-2nd best 1B in the AL (12 in MLB), min. 250 PA
-a top 5 SS
Four of our starters are top 30 in wRC+ (min. 250 PA) for all of MLB. Two of them are first and fourth respectively. Mitchy is in the top 60.
Five of our players have hit like the the top of quartile of players in baseball, four in the top ten percent, and none show no signs that they will stop doing so. I think we can live with Devers in the 80-90 wRC+ range, Holt at 2B at 100-110 wRC+.
I fail to see how a known bad defender and currently 68 wRC+ hitter (i.e. Nunez) is better than devers right now. Since his injury last year, he's had his power effectively sapped and his baserunning has vanished.
Agreed. If his shoulder is a worse problem than suspected, I could see something happening. However, Escobar doesn't really play much second, so it's hard to see him replacing Nunez. On the other hand, Nunez didn't start playing second until WE asked him to...
Escobar's on a 1/4.8 deal, however, he's a rental this season and hasn't performed very well up until now. I don't think the tax may be an issue, but I don't know if we have the pieces for him...
EDIT: well that wasn't very clear...
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Eh, Devers has such obvious holes in his swing right now that I can see a playoff opponent completely taking him out of the game. Not all 700 OPSes are created the same: he’ll crush a mistake low in the zone but simply cannot catch up to or lay off the high stuff. A team like the Astros will give him nothing to hit. In addition to the concerns about his glove, I’d also rather a hitter who can’t be so readily converted into an automatic out, even if it comes with less power and similar OPS— which basically describes Brock Holt.
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Devers should absolutely be expected to have more errors due to what should be expected to be a higher normal number of chances for the reasons you state and more.
Consider:
The Red Sox not so many years ago had a clear strategy of pitching and defense as a competitive advantage, which is why they brought in Porcello and Miley.
Will the Red Sox’ groundball pitchers strategy work? Alex Speier (03/12/15)
We discussed this here on the board even before those articles started coming out:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-ground-game-searching-for-market-inefficiencies.7075/#post-1022861
Because the FO types were already discussing it:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/leveling-up-what-i-learned-at-the-sabermetrics-scouting-and-the-science-of-baseball-seminar.5135/#post-862149
Porcello won the Cy Young. Then sucked. And then was good again and people are confused--I would argue that a significant part of the difference was defense and the injuries that hurt the defense. It turns out baseball is a team sport after all. (h/t @Buzzkill Pauley , @absintheofmalaise )
There's been so much talk about Price and how he's doing and what not, let's not lose of the sight of the fact before he was just considered a great pitcher and then maybe an overrated a pitcher or whatever, he was considered a great ground ball pitcher:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1316344-derek-lowe-and-mo-the-best-ground-ball-pitchers-in-baseball-today
I think it is also significant that the Red Sox's move towards trying to move towards grounds balls based pitching and defense coincides in a kind of offset way with the advent--or awareness--of the "launch angle revolution" which Gomes and DOB earlier this season pointed out, during a broadcast, can be easily traced to adjustments in hitting response to changes in defensive strategy such as the shift. And, therefore, I would assume, other defensive understandings.
And the Red Sox also signed the poster boy for the Launch Angle Revolution and he's now a team leader and teaching everyone and he's awesome.
So it seems like they understand a lot of the dynamics of the game, maybe, and one of them has been to go with getting pitchers to get hitters to hit lots of ground balls, so it's not surprising to me that Devers has a lot of chances--thanks for looking this stuff up @DennyDoyle'sBoil, and to @Buzzkill Pauley on his reverse engineering of fielding from "weird data"--and therefore a lot of errors.
That said, he still might not be very good in the field.
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He’s 21. His mental mistakes are more noticeable because the Red Sox are fundamentally very sound. That stuff can and will be fixed. Not everyone is Mookie. The team Plays good to great D, run bases pretty well. Throw strikes and swing at strikes. Run out ground balls....
These things have separated themselves somewhat from Yankees last year and this year. And Yankees are generally good at these things.
Devers is 21. The Sox are 40 games above .500 and he's been a real part of that. He's young with very little MLB experience. He's going to get better.
That said, it's entirely possible he makes a key mistake in a playoff game that costs the Sox big time. But then again, he might come up with a huge play too.
I'm all for pulling him late in games when they have a lead though, for a better defensive player. Especially come playoff time. But this is a perfect scenario for him to get valuable game experience at the MLB level. The team is crushing it and easily able to live with his mistakes so far.
EDIT: Was typing this as Clears posted his, along the same lines.
That said, it's entirely possible he makes a key mistake in a playoff game that costs the Sox big time. But then again, he might come up with a huge play too.
I'm all for pulling him late in games when they have a lead though, for a better defensive player. Especially come playoff time. But this is a perfect scenario for him to get valuable game experience at the MLB level. The team is crushing it and easily able to live with his mistakes so far.
EDIT: Was typing this as Clears posted his, along the same lines.
Key mistakes are made by some of the most fundamentally sound players too. We've seen it and nobody can predict when/if.
I'm very bullish on the kid and think he needs as much time and confidence at the highest levels (stop with the talk of a AAA move, it won't help...). That said.... if it's a tight playoff game.... I would support the late inning defensive replacement move. I'm hoping for Lin over Nunez there as I think Holt will be starting at 2B...... or jeez.... what about Swihart?
But... also want to point out that Rafi was one of the few offensive bright spots last year in the playoffs. He clearly has some room to grow on his offensive side, if/when he does he'll be a total beast. That could very well be next week or next month.... or next season
I'm very bullish on the kid and think he needs as much time and confidence at the highest levels (stop with the talk of a AAA move, it won't help...). That said.... if it's a tight playoff game.... I would support the late inning defensive replacement move. I'm hoping for Lin over Nunez there as I think Holt will be starting at 2B...... or jeez.... what about Swihart?
But... also want to point out that Rafi was one of the few offensive bright spots last year in the playoffs. He clearly has some room to grow on his offensive side, if/when he does he'll be a total beast. That could very well be next week or next month.... or next season
He's been a part of it in the sense that he's on the roster, I guess. But he hasn't really contributed too much to the team other than that. He's a batter with a wOBA that fangraphs puts in the "poor" category who has very bad plate discipline, very poor situational hitting skills, and is on pace for 30-35 errors in the field. With position adjustment he's only cost the team 2-3 runs according to the fangraphs value models for defense, but he puts extra pitches on arms. He is, at present, not a good baseball player by any stretch. I mean he's one of the best players on the planet compared to the entire population but in terms of third basemen in MLB he's below average flirting with poor. But he is on the roster and the best we have. He hits the ball really freaking hard. That makes him servicable in the absence of better options.
There is almost a John Farrell like divide on Sosh about him. I really don't understand the "he is only 21" point. It is definitely reason to think he might get better. And maybe it explains why he is not a good baseball player. But that's an article of faith not a fact. It also assumes that it matters. Why exactly does it matter right now? It certainly is a relevant point if the question is whether or not to trade him. But is it relevant to whether the team should be looking to try to upgrade third base if it can? I guess you could make the argument that second base is a much bigger position of need and so we really don't have the assets to even be discussing it. But, if anything, the fact that Devers has options and Nunez doesn't and Pedroia's status is still at least theoretically hopeful I think makes it a very reasonable question. And the answer that he's only 21 doesn't really matter very much for purposes of that question.
If you look at it objectively, he is still their best 3rd base option. Nunez has been a miserable baseball player this season and Holt is their guy at 2b.
I guess it's possible they could punt the position with Lin - similar to how they did it with Marrero at 3rd last year but Lin has looked over matched to be kind.
The other option is upgrading by trade (including Swihart) and benching him, but again luxury tax.
I have no clue if they will trust him in the post season, but he's probably their best default bet this season.
I guess it's possible they could punt the position with Lin - similar to how they did it with Marrero at 3rd last year but Lin has looked over matched to be kind.
The other option is upgrading by trade (including Swihart) and benching him, but again luxury tax.
I have no clue if they will trust him in the post season, but he's probably their best default bet this season.
Him being 21 and cost-controlled for years to come is really really really important when you consider that this isn't just about 2018. They're on pace for 113 wins with Devers as a starter. You couldn't really ask for a better spot to groom a young player with loads of potential. I mean, let's say he was playing even better. What would their projected win total be? 116 instead of 113?
I'm not saying pay no attention to possible upgrades. You just have to factor in the price and the impact on the team beyond 2018.
I agree with that for sure. One might also be able to make the case though that getting him some seasoning in AAA without accruing service time while a vet plays the position a bit better also could be helpful. I think that was probably an argument for a couple of months ago though at this point. It might now be a regression inducer. That ship has probably sailed and hoping Cora can coach him up and the others can work with him to keep him from getting the yips on his throws is where we are now. It would have to be a pretty unique circumstance that gave them a chance to upgrade the position for 2018 I guess. Maybe even more likely after 8/1 than before if they were willing to eat some salary somewhere on one of the guys that gets pushed through waivers. Probably unlikely unless they already blow the tax before 8/1. So, it's a pretty abstract discussion. He's our guy.
I was feeling more optimistic about Devers this year about a month ago, when for a few weeks footwork seemed so much better and his throws were mostly on target. Now it seems like he's regressing there for some reason, and still swinging at pitches that get him out.
And Betts hasn't quite been the same.
But Benny has improved and JBJ has picked up a ton of slack. That's how it should work over 162 games.
Not to put words in his mouth, but I think his point is that some are saying Nunez and Holt are superior options to Devers. Nunez is not, either over the full season or recently. Holt's full season line is still strong (102 wRC+ and his 0.6 fWAR is the same as Rafi's in about 2/3 of the time), but he hasn't been particularly good recently.
There have been 64 players since 1920 that have >100 PAs and at least 50% of their games at 3B at or before the age of 21. Devers' OPS is 18th best on that list. There just aren't that many players that come up that early at that position and are good. Of the 17 guys ahead of him:
2 Hall of Famers - Eddie Mathews and Ron Santo
A lot of good All-Star players - Bob Horner, David Wright, Ben Chapman, Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Fryman, Ken Keltner, Howard Johnson, Harland Clift, Eric Chavez, Cecil Travis
A few flame-outs - Gregg Jefferies, Brett Lawrie, Dayan Viciedo, Pete Reiser
One okay player - Richie Hebner
That's not too bad of a track record. And that doesn't include some players behind him like the next 4 guys on the list: Carney Lansford, Adrian Beltre, Manny Machado, Freddie Lindstrom. And Scott Rolen, Buddy Bell, George Brett, Jim Thome, Aramis Ramirez, George Kell and Troy Glaus. Point being, a 3B playing decent in the Major Leagues at age 21 is a rare thing and his chances really aren't that bad for the future. Does it help this year? I'm not saying that, but if we want him around for awhile, he needs that experience.
Yes I'm sure you're right. I think I misread the purpose of him citing those numbers.
Good stuff. Yeah, no time for even a tiny mistake at third base which makes it a tough position for a young guy. I think there was a debate to be had at one point whether trying to develop under the bright lights was counterproductive versus in AAA. I think I tried to start that debate in game threads and then here. And I'm still not really sure. Panda made sure we'll never know. But, at this point, it's all theoretical. That ship has sailed and what we have is what we have. Or, at least the ship will be gone for sure in about 7 days.
It's almost disorienting watching a huge corporation sometimes figure out that if they actually want results, it's more important to have a manager who can talk to his people and the ability to talk to people outside the organization will just work itself out as long as things go well, which is more likely to happen if you have a manger who can talk to...
Which is to say, I really, really like Cora.
I think it's worth noting that Tito was pretty explicit after they won about how much he felt his job was keeping them together and bullshitting the media.
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Crap! I just saw that on the official mlb sox site! What the hell? Last two games he seemed to be totally looking solid at the plate and field too. It says a "hamstring injury" and he seemed to be easily walking but in a little wincing level pain.... Says "10 Day DL". If it's just a slight pull I'd say the Sox just go with Nunez at 3rd, Brock at 2nd and bring Lin back up.... if there's something serious there, do they start looking to deal? And what sort of rentals are actually available for the assets the Sox have left to deal? I don't see anything that's realistic or a definite upgrade over Nunez/Lin there.... yikes.
One would think, especially with Brandon Phillips getting hurt last night in Pawtucket. But who? The ship has sailed on Moustakis and Cabrera. Beltre just plays third and would cost more than what we have. (Although thinking about slotting him in he lineup after Martinez is really appealing...)
Who is left?
If it is a slight pull, they'll do the same thing they did when he was on the DL last time. Unless it's catastrophic (like it will put him out for a month plus), no reason to panic and make a big move.
Lin is hitting in AAA, .315/ .369 ./457 /.826 and when with the RS he passed the eye test as a MLB fielder. This raises two questions:
1) Can the Sox bring him back to help, or do option rules leave him out of near term plans?
2) Do the Sox believe Lin is a MLB caliber player? He does not appear in the MLB.COM "top 30" list of prospects and I assume that is a Red Sox provided list.
1) Can the Sox bring him back to help, or do option rules leave him out of near term plans?
2) Do the Sox believe Lin is a MLB caliber player? He does not appear in the MLB.COM "top 30" list of prospects and I assume that is a Red Sox provided list.
They absolutely do not need to go out and get anyone, if they get a good deal then sure go for it but they don't need to do something.
Give Lin a real chance to play and see if what he is doing in AAA translates to MLB.
I suspect Devers will be back in a couple weeks and then maybe Lin becomes your everyday 2B.
Edit: Regarding the post above of course they can bring him up that is what he is there for. He is no longer considered a prospect because he has had too much time in MLB. If he were he would certainly be in the top couple of Sox prospects.
Edit2:I'm wrong on Lin, he is still technically a prospect. SoxProspects has him at #20, I'm sure due to his relatively advanced age and lowish ceiling. Maybe MLB uses a different ranking but with the lack of legit guys I find it hard to fathom he could be out of the top 30.
Give Lin a real chance to play and see if what he is doing in AAA translates to MLB.
I suspect Devers will be back in a couple weeks and then maybe Lin becomes your everyday 2B.
Edit: Regarding the post above of course they can bring him up that is what he is there for. He is no longer considered a prospect because he has had too much time in MLB. If he were he would certainly be in the top couple of Sox prospects.
Edit2:I'm wrong on Lin, he is still technically a prospect. SoxProspects has him at #20, I'm sure due to his relatively advanced age and lowish ceiling. Maybe MLB uses a different ranking but with the lack of legit guys I find it hard to fathom he could be out of the top 30.
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I agree that a trade seems unnecessary unless, perhaps, Devers is out for most or all of the remainder of the season, which it certainly did not look like based on the way he got off the field yesterday, barely hobbling at all.
3b options are really weak. Frazier is one, and we saw the one and a half shits DD gave for him last year. Flores has been mostly playing 1b but I guess could play 3b. If the Pirates think they're out (doubtful before the deadline) then there is David Freese. But those guys aren't clear upgrades.
I'm all for patching the defense in the short term and going with Lin. It's not like Devers has been an irreplaceable all-star this season. Check back in 2020.
2b still has a few guys but that's for the other thread.
I'm all for patching the defense in the short term and going with Lin. It's not like Devers has been an irreplaceable all-star this season. Check back in 2020.
2b still has a few guys but that's for the other thread.
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I wouldn't call Reiser a flame out. The Dodgers' regular 3b, Cookie Lavagetto (All-Star-'38-'40) had an injury towards the end of August and Reiser, a July call-up, took over for him. At that point, Reiser had played 4 games at 3b (two were the second games of double headers, 4 at ss, and 8 in rf). Reiser primarily played outfield and in 1939 he felt a pain when throwing a ball back to the infield. He kept on playing but after a couple of weeks it was found that he had fractured his arm, so after the healing process, he came back throwing left-handed. I'm not sure if he went back to throwing right-handed that season or in 1940. But after two outstanding seasons as a regular, he ran into a fence trying to catch a drive hit by Enos Slaughter and ended up with a fractured skull and brain injury.That didn't end his career.
His entry in SABR's Biography Project by Mark Stewart is well worth the read: https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/92638bc5 (like he was earning $50 per game as a soccer player as a 14-year-old).
The Redsox don't provide top prospect lists to anyone. The publications themselves make their own lists. With that said, I'm not even sure Lin qualifies as a prospect anymore.
He's an interesting guy because before last year, he didn't hit at all. He changed his approach and now he's hitting way more fly balls and has been pretty good. But can we really just ignore his career up until 2017?
I love the idea of Iglesias. He could play 2B or 3B as needed and be elite defensively. And he hasn’t been terrible with the bat.
What would it take to get him and do the Sox have those people?
Also, wouldn't he be very discontented not playing shortstop? He's not a guy who's happy not getting his way.
Obviously can’t speak to the ego issues, just looking at fit. With Cabrera and Moustakas moved I don’t think the infield market is too crowded. Maybe Houston if Altuve’s injury is serious. So it shouldn’t cost a ton.
Hummm... Red Sox are a multi-billion dollar organization and a powerful voice in the governance of the MLB association, whose official web site is MLB.COM.
If I ran the Red Sox I would not turn over the ranking of my assets to the "collective" MLB.
I would provide the ranked list in accordance with agreed association rules OR I would hold editorial control and veto power over what ever lists the MLB elected to compile and publish.
Prospects are valuable. And leaving their assessed value up to "independent" judgement is not in ownership interest.
I can't be rational about Adrian Beltre....I'll try: he's at the end of a 2 yr deal, earning 18M this year. Baseball Reference numbers suggest his defense is still very good but his offense has taken a big hit - and he owns a .624 OPS outside of Arlington. He'd be a "twilight of his career" rental. I'm assuming that by "cost" you are referring to the money he's still owed and the talent to be given up; reading some stories this morning, it sounds like there is some market for him, when otherwise the Rangers should have no business demanding significant talent in exchange. I get that unless Devers' injury is going to be nagging it makes no sense, and Devers is 21 and should recover from a hammy faster than anyone on the roster - and Beltre is not the greatest roster fit if you still have Devers.
My main irrational thought is imaging the playoffs, and some hard hit ground ball right at Raffy Devers in the crucial moment of a game, and holding my breath up until the throw is completed - while having Beltre there would instead give me a peaceful easy feeling. The other irrational thought is I love him to death and would watch games just to see him in a Sox uniform again, even at 65% of what he was the last time he was here.
These lists are for fans. Team scouts aren’t checking mlb.com to decide who they like in another team’s system. Why would a team even want anyone to know how highly or lowly they think of a given prospect?
As for trade potential, they aren’t blowing up the tax situation to acquire a 3b to cover for Devers for a couple weeks.