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Whatever happened to Kris Dunn? (the 2016 redraft)

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bosox79, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It's funny this board melted down when they passed on Kris Dunn and as of now, he's the only guy drafted in the top 10 I'd be comfortable labeling a bust due to his age and performance.
     
  2. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    In my defense, I melted down when they passed on Dragan Bender, who currently has a worse FT% than Andre Drummond.
     
  3. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Bender's been shooting FTs at 100% since the start of this year . . . .
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    3/8 for the season, heh. He's got age on his side. Dunn has nothing going for him and is 30/51 .588 from the line for a 6'4 PG. Shoots 3s worse than Bender too. Dunn has been truly terrible this year and he's going to be 23 in March. He's all of 12 days younger than Marcus Smart.
     
  5. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    Did Danny get lucky or did he see something most others missed (on both Jaylen and Dunn)?
     
  6. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    With respect to Bender, Danny thought he was way too skinny. Danny really liked that Jaylen had a NBA ready body and NBA ready athleticism.

    There is something to be said about not drafting guys who won't be NBA ready for two or three years because by the time they do grow into their body, they have to be re-upped.
     
  7. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    That presumes they ever do "grow into it". Tons of examples of guys who never did. I also think Bender's official listed weight is inflated by at least 20 pounds.
     
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Did others miss anything on Jaylen Brown? He was the 3rd pick in the draft. Maybe the Lakers missed something? But Ingram is still incredibly young and "needs to grow into his body" too.

    Re Dunn: You never draft for need, but he really didn't fit and maybe Ainge didn't like the sub 70% FT shooting given Dunn's age.
     
  9. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    If Dunn really works hard, he might be as good as Terry Rozier some day. Holy shit I was wrong about him. Really think the Bulls are going to really regret not doing Nets 2017/Jaylen/lesser pick for Butler if that was ever truly on the table. They would have had their backcourt for the next decade lined up. Now they're going to suck as they waste the rest of Butler's prime years.
     
  10. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    What's funny about that is Terry Rozier is only 1 day older than Kris Dunn. And small sample size and all but his 3 point % is on the rise. He's up to .339 on the year and he was a significantly better FT shooter in college and in the pros than Dunn. His long term prospects are "Rozier."
     
  11. Drocca

    Drocca darrell foster wallace SoSH Member

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    It matters where you play. Dunn played four seasons at Providence. In his one brush with big time college basketball, last year in the tournament against UNC, he got a little over excited and let Berry get quick fouls on him, essentially taking himself out of the action.

    Rozier played in the ACC. Enough said. Empty stats for Dunn.
     
  12. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    They're going to hate you over in the Ed Cooley thread.
     
  13. Drocca

    Drocca darrell foster wallace SoSH Member

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    It was a red flag when he decided to go there. He had offers from some real schools (Louisville, for one and in keeping with the convo in this thread). The decision to kind of hide and play 1 college basketball team in four years is weak.
     
  14. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    This seems a little overdramatic. It isn't like he is coming out of Weber State like Dame did; the new Big East might not be the ACC, but it wasn't like he was playing in the Ivy League either.
     
  15. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Droca is an ACC whore, an understandable point of view which I typically support as sound basketball judgment, though I might advise some caution when it comes to a certain NC State freshman PG.

    Dunn was a really good college player, and in his defense, he has been a very good defender in the NBA so far. But he's old and hasn't shown much else.
     
  16. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    I remember Ainge saying that Bender was too frail. And now Bender has been out for a month or so because of arthroscopic surgery on his ankle -- so good call there. Interesting question: if Lakers got a redraft, do they still take Ingram at two? I would say yes -- he had 22 points in his last game -- but he's gotten off to a bit of a slow start. So maybe the answer isn't a slam dunk.
     
  17. MarkBT

    MarkBT lurker

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    Outside of the top 3 (which I don't think would change), it's really tough to project "how" the rest of the lottery - or even the top 10 - would play out if there was an actual re-draft.

    My guess is that Murray and Chriss would move into the top 5..? Malcolm Brogdon might make it into the lottery?
     
  18. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is both weak and hilarious all at once. The real fact is that Dunn and his father choose Providence because Ed Cooley was the only coach who discussed education with him during the recruiting process. Despite the rumors Louisville wasn't a serious contender because they didn't like/trust Pitino. The only other serious contender was Stanford. Also of note, Dunn only played 2 full healthy seasons at Providence following his two shoulder surgeries and was The Big East POY in both of them.

    Thibs LOVES Dunn and is happy with his development especially on the defensive end. The issue is the same one that Rubio is having in his role. When you are instructed to bring the ball over halfcourt and initiate the offense through the wings you are essentially Rondo on our 2008 team. It is almost always going to take a point guard 2-3 years in the league to get going......Nash and Stockton entered the league at the same age as Dunn with neither becoming full time starters until their 3rd and 4th seasons respectively. Jimmy Butler was a 22 year old rookie who played only garbage minutes. All the feedback coming out of Minnesota has been positive.......I'd hate to hear Celtics fans when Ball/Fultz are putting up scantily clad numbers off the bench for us next year.
     
  19. Drocca

    Drocca darrell foster wallace SoSH Member

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    That is a really strong point about point guards. They do seem to have the longest build up time (Billups comes to mind, obviously). It's just that we are in somewhat of a golden age of point guard play.

    I liked Dunn a lot. I like his competitiveness and his body seemed as "nba ready" as one could get. The injuries did not seem to be a lingering concern. But it was really hard to know how to translate his "college" career. Do we treat him like an older one and done? Like a mid-Euro league guy? Really tough.
     
  20. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    It was a pick your warts draft after ... well Ingram but he's been a whole lot worse than I thought he could be, Simmons is hurt of course. But all the players after this needed projection and had large warts.
    I don't think we'll know the final outcome for some time, but Dunn's problem is his age. IF you're projecting you'd rather be bad at 19 than 22. But he isn't Hield with 4 years, so he may well be behind in his development.
     
  21. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    Dunn's clearly behind in his development, and even just going on what HRB has said, is behind relative to where Minnesota expected him to be.

    Going into the season, the expectation was that Rubio would be traded and that the Wolves would be Dunn's team by the deadline. If I recall, HRB corroborated that. Instead, his minutes have seen a slight decline since the first few months of the season, and the Wolves shopped Rubio at the deadline but wouldn't deal him without getting another point guard back. That's a long ways off from the expectations that were set for him going into the season.
     
  22. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    Nice game for Dunn to end the season: 16 assists vs. 3 turnovers in a loss to Houston.
     
  23. 67YAZ

    67YAZ Member SoSH Member

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    This is Thibs m.o. He doesn't much tolerate a "rookie learning curve" on the court. By Thibs' standard, Dunn played quite a bit as a rookie. And that was at PG, the hardest position to learn. A quick look at all his rookies' playing time over the years...

    2010-2011
    Asik - 24 years old, 12.1.min/game, 82 games (0 starts)

    2011-2012
    Butler - 22yo, 8.5min/game, 42 games (0 starts)

    2012-2013
    Teague - 19yo, 8.2min/game, 48 games (0 starts)

    2013-2014
    Murphy - 23yo 2.6min/game, 24 games (0 starts)
    Snell - 22yo, 16min/game, 77 games (0 starts)

    2014-2015
    Bairstow - 24yo, 3.6min/game, 18 games (0 starts)
    Mirotic - 23yo, 20.2min/game, 82 games (3 starts)
    McDermott - 23yo, 8.9min/game, 36 games (0 starts)

    2016-2017
    Dunn - 22yo, 17.1min/game, 78 games (7 starts)
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    That really should be the standard for all rookies who really don't have a clue what they are doing until at least their second year with few exceptions......especially at the PG position. Stockton played 18 mpg off the bench as a 22-yr old rookie putting up a 5/5/1/1 line. Nash played 10 mpg as a 22-yr old rookie, mostly garbage time avg 3 ppg. A players rookie year is a feeling out process with the development beginning in that first summer.
     
  25. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    You keep mentioning Nash and Stokton but ou fail to mention the myriad of PGs who played quite a bit their rookie year and turned out to be incredible players. There is no correct way to introduce young PGs to the NBA game. Some have success getting thrown to the fire. Others are best served sitting and earning their time.

    Jason Kidd played 34 minutes and put up 12/8/5
    Kyrie Irving played 31 minutes and put up 19/5/4
    John Wall played 38 minutes and put up 16/8/5
    Steph Curry played 36 minutes and put up 18/6/5
     
  26. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    The difference between Stockton/Nash and Kris Dunn is that Stockton and Nash actually played reasonably well in the minutes they played. Kris Dunn did not.

    Per 36 Stockton's 5/5/1/1 statline is 11.1/10.0/2.5/2.6.

    Nash rookie year per 36 is 11.2/7.3/3.3/1.1.

    Those numbers hint at something interesting. Kris Dunn put up 7.9/5.1/4.5/2.1 per 36.
     
  27. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Dunn's role in that offense on the second unit was interesting to say the least as I've pointed out from the beginning of the season. Thibs often staggered the second unit to have one of Wiggins/LaVine/Towns on the floor......when it was Wiggins/LaVine this resulted in Dunn's role being similar to Rondo's on our '07-'08 team......bring it over halfcourt, get it into the hand of Pierce/KG and go hide in the corner on the weak side while ballhawking the hell on the other end of the floor. When he played as a starter it was naturally a small sample but they ran more traditional sets where the PG would actually run the team. In those games Dunn's per36 line was 8.2/9.4/6.0/2.8 coupled with his defensive impact.

    Those numbers aren't horrific and as a rookie they aren't overly important as to how a player is going to develop.....he had some real good games early on then seems like he spent the rest of the way figuring out the league like most rookies. The month of March was his best shooting month across the board so that is a positive. In general, it's way too early to form judgment on a rookie......many people wrote off guys like Jimmy Butler, Noah Vonleh, and Otto Porter early on too. The second season for any player is going to give us a much better view of what their growth curve is going to look like than a rookie season.
     
  28. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    At this point, a redraft would have to look like
    1. Simmons
    2. Sabonis
    3. Jaylen

    After that it gets dicey. I'm guessing Ingram and Brogdon would go early. Skal would rise a bit in the draft too, while the only real big drop would be Dunn. It's actually shaping up to be a solid class.

    Some people will probably take issue with Sabonis being 2nd, but he's a 21 year old stretch big who in the early going this season looks to be an elite rebounder with good vision and a nice shot from 16+ feet out, but an even better inside game. He does have some turnover issues but not bad for an afterthought in the George trade.

    Poetl has looked pretty good early on, as has Bender. Hield and Chriss have had pretty rough starts while Murray is breaking out of his.
     
  29. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure 8 games of good basketball is enough to vault Sabonis up to the # 2 spot.
     
  30. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    True, and I think it would probably go Simmons then Jaylen. However, 8 games against high quality competition is actually more to go on than what we get in a one-and-done player's entire career.
     
  31. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He was good in the preseason too and it's not like the guys he vaulting over have done much. At worst, he'd be 5th.
     
  32. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Dunn had a rough time of it in Thibs system last year and missed the past couple weeks with a dislocated finger. Last night was his second game off the bench and while he has looked rusty in the first two games it looks at though he's ready to take over the starting job after his 11/7/5/5/5 performance yesterday including a poster over Olynyk. (Shhhh, the last two 5's were TO and PF)


     
  33. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Dunn had a few good games last year. I'm sure he'll put up numbers if he gets playing time. My original post is worded pretty strongly against Dunn but he could become useful. I mean, Austin Rivers turned himself into an NBA player.
     
  34. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Oh I know. I was more just saying I couldn't see him vaulting over Brown
     
  35. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    Would think it goes
    1. Simmons
    2. Jaylen
    3. Ingram

    After that, it gets a little dicey. I think Brogdon would go later than expected just because the draft is always about potential and Brogdon is seen as largely a finished product
     
  36. jmm57

    jmm57 Member SoSH Member

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    Pretty good night for Dunn tonight......

    26 minutes, 10-16 22 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals
     
  37. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He isn't there yet but he sorta reminds me of Alvin Robertson minus the shooting. It was a different game back then though. I could also be remembering wrong. I was really young when Alvin played.
     
  38. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I always felt Dunn's greatest challenge in this league wasn't his shooting but in tightening up his handle. It seems to have gotten looser since leaving Providence which has become a problem for him this year.

    3 of his last 4 games have been really good. PG's take time so I'm not super worried but that handle still needs work.
     
  39. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Back to back nice games by Kris Dunn. 24/8/5/4 on 10-16 shooting followed up with a 19/5/5 on 9-11 shooting. Up to 43% behind the arc on the season. Now to get those careless TO's and silly fouls under control.
     
  40. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Jamal Murray has had a ridiculous month of December. 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals on .466/.487/.932 shooting. For the year, he is now at 15.3, 3.4, 2.7, 0.9 on .442/.358/.926 shooting. Jamal Murray doesn't turn 21 until February. Last year's draft is going to end up incredibly stacked.

    Sabonis continues to impress too in less minutes, 11.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists in 23.9 minutes a night, shooting .532/.385/.743.

    Kris Dunn has been mentioned a lot lately, but he's having a resurgence in Chicago. 13.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 2.0 steals on .434/.329/.672 shooting.

    Bender, Prince, Poetl have all shown improvement from last year. Out of everyone taken in the lottery, the only 3 showing regression are Chriss, Maker and Papagiannis. Simmons, Brown, Ingram and Murray all look like potential stars.

    I watched a lot of Nuggets games last year, not so many this year. I may need to start watching again. They have a young core that can rival anyone and they are already really good.
     
  41. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    I'd quibble on potential stars. Simmons looks like a potential star. Murray, Brown, and Ingram look like potential very good players. Each has a pathway to being a star but not one of them is very likely to achieve that path. Last year's draft is looking like a relatively deep draft with good players that lacked much top tier talent. In other words, it basically is what we thought it was.

    Contrast 2017, which is a really strong year that has several guys doing very very impressive things as rookies. Kuzma, Tatum, Mitchell, and even Ball would've won last year's RoY going away (the latter arguably not deservingly).
     
  42. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Usually in these discussions, one person is using "star" to mean "top-10 player", and the other means "all-star a couple times." I don't think the latter is a huge stretch for Ingram and Murray, and Brown could get it as early as next year just from normal improvement and being on a really good team in the East.

    If we're talking about "top-10 player", I'd agree with you, although I don't think Kuzma and Ball have much of a potential path to that, relative to Tatum and Mitchell.
     
  43. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I meant all star. Top 10 players are superstars. I can't see any of Murray, Ingram or Brown becoming top 10 players. Out of the 2 drafts combined, Simmons is the most likely to get there too.
     
  44. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm letting recency bias get to me, but I'm almost to the point where I'd select Jamal Murray 2nd in a redraft. Why does this guy not get any love?

    Since the beginning of December: 25 games, 32.1 mpg, .471/.450/.927. 18.6/3.9/3.0. He's not going to shoot .450 from 3 forever, but he's a career 90.5% (228-252) FT shooter in the NBA. He was only 78% in college, somehow. That's a remarkable improvement in 2 years since FT percentage generally stabilizes after 100 attempts.
     
  45. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Murray slipped to 7th in draft largely on defensive concerns, and they aren't effort problems either. The issue is he's not a point guard on offense, but probably lacks the quickness and length to guard almost any twos defensively. He's looking like a great scorer, but may end up giving back almost as much on defense as he does on offense. He's sort of falling into that Devin Booker trap as result, where he may end up putting up a lot of good stats, but the team won't perform all that well with him on the court unless you really build your roster around having someone to help him out defensively.

    That's fine of course - he may be a sufficiently transcendent talent on offense that it's worth it, but it's just a bit of a roster headache.
     
  46. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He fits in well with Denver. And not to get too off track, but Will Barton continues to improve every year. In 2012, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Kris Middleton, and Will Barton were drafted in the 2nd round.
     
  47. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Bump.

    I've had some concerns with Dunn this summer. The Bulls wanted him to stay in Chicago all summer but he spent much of his time back in Connecticut and when in Chicago training some with his father rather than solely with the Bulls conditioning guys. He's had a couple nice preseason games this year and appears ready to make another leap this year. Nice words out of Hoiberg's mouth which confirms the whispers out of Chicago during camp.

    Fred Hoiberg: “I thought we did a phenomenal job of that in Game 1 and not a very good job in Game 2. but I look at the way Kris has handled everything since he got back (to Chicago) in September full time, he’s just been a rock star.He’s been coming in every day to work with a great approach and we’ve loved what we’ve seen out of him early on in the season.”

    – via Arlington Heights Daily Herald
     
  48. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Doing a redraft a little further out and it changes a bit. It's still early but year 3 is a pretty big one and honestly a lot of these players seem interchangeable so it's more pick your flavor. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone obvious.

    1. Simmons
    2. Sabonis
    3. Ingram
    4. Hield
    5. J. Murray
    6. Brown
    7. LeVert
    8. Siakam
    9. Brogdon
    10. D. Murray/Prince/Maker/whoever.

    Sadly, you could probably make a case for Brown being as low as 9th. Even if you think his shooting woes are variance, he hasn't improved his game elsewhere.

    I'm obviously a big Sabonis fan so I'm sure quite a few people still disagree with that ranking but he's improved across the board again. Rebounding rate from 9.8% to 17.8% to 22.6%. Assist rate from 7.2% to 12.7% to 20.2%. I see him developing into a Jokic type, with less play making. It seems all the bigs out of Europe nowadays are good passers.

    I also wonder if it's possible Simmons ends up not being the best pick from his draft class. He hasn't really improved at all but he was so much better than everyone else that the gap is still pretty big. I could see maybe Sabonis, Ingram, or Murray passing him. Sabonis is only 2 months older, Ingram is 14 months younger and Murray 7 months younger. Thing is, Ingram and Murray haven't improved that much this year either. Ingram may have even stalled or regressed, hard to tell with LeBron. Murray has improved his play making but not elsewhere.

    Hield is interesting in that he is a lights out shooter. He's shooting at a much higher volume this year than the past 2 and is shooting at a career best clip. I wonder how he would hold up with even more volume. LeVert could also be higher but I knocked him down a few due to the injury.

    You could also argue for Brogdon being higher but he's older and is more of a role player while a few of the guys ahead of him have potential to be more. They could also never be as good as him either. Siakam has also made a leap forward this year.
     
  49. PC Drunken Friar

    PC Drunken Friar Member SoSH Member

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    If you are going to revisit this often and a guy like Brown drops 3-6 places in less than a month... Maybe don't revisit it so much? What's the point?
     
  50. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    8,890
    I haven't revisited it in 11 months and he deserves to be dropped.
     

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