What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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It's one of the most embarrassing things I've seen a media company do in a long time and that's really saying something. They have basically the best baseball asset in media and they put the guy on mute for Colin Cowherd rant videos. It's sad.
SoxProspects.com ranked Shaun Anderson #17. Let's assume for the moment that anyone else they pick up (a reliever or a bat) is going to be more valuable than Nunez, and let's further assume that they'd need to lead the package with a prospect more valuable than Anderson. Under those assumptions, here's a little speculative analysis that may prove to have been a waste of my last 20 minutes:
-- Some guys I can't imagine being traded, either because they're too valuable, too new, or (in Mata's case) established as guys Dombrowski has refused to put on the table: Devers (1), Groome (2), Houck (5), Flores (7), Mata (8), Brannen (14), Scherff (15).
-- Two guys I can't imagine being traded because they're injured: Chatham (9), Lakins (12).
-- Sam Travis (3) seems to have a potential role on this year's team (unless we trade for a first-division 1B we can control beyond 2017, none of whom appear to be available). To a lesser extent, so do Jalen Beeks (11) and Brian Johnson (13), who are among the top 8 or so guys on our SP depth chart.
-- Part of the reason it was easy to part with Anderson is that Mike Shawaryn (16) is a similar pitcher at a similar point in the development curve, and I would be mildly surprised if they trade both in the same month.
So that would leave Chavis (4), Ockimey (6), and Dalbec (10) as guys I wouldn't be surprised to see headlining a package for a reliever or another bat (add Chatham, I guess, if he proves to be healthy in time). Then you have the glut of AAA relief arms to serve as second pieces.
-- Some guys I can't imagine being traded, either because they're too valuable, too new, or (in Mata's case) established as guys Dombrowski has refused to put on the table: Devers (1), Groome (2), Houck (5), Flores (7), Mata (8), Brannen (14), Scherff (15).
-- Two guys I can't imagine being traded because they're injured: Chatham (9), Lakins (12).
-- Sam Travis (3) seems to have a potential role on this year's team (unless we trade for a first-division 1B we can control beyond 2017, none of whom appear to be available). To a lesser extent, so do Jalen Beeks (11) and Brian Johnson (13), who are among the top 8 or so guys on our SP depth chart.
-- Part of the reason it was easy to part with Anderson is that Mike Shawaryn (16) is a similar pitcher at a similar point in the development curve, and I would be mildly surprised if they trade both in the same month.
So that would leave Chavis (4), Ockimey (6), and Dalbec (10) as guys I wouldn't be surprised to see headlining a package for a reliever or another bat (add Chatham, I guess, if he proves to be healthy in time). Then you have the glut of AAA relief arms to serve as second pieces.
I agree with Feinsand. The Sox need to go out and get another bat even after getting Nunez. Nunez is a league average player who can play multiple positions. Basically, he's a good Brock Holt. They need a power bat and while there isn't much on the market they need to find one. DD needs to come up with difference makers in the lineup and in the bullpen.
Chavis is undoubtedly their best chip, and for a "barren farm system" he's a pretty damn good chip. He's really started to hit at AA with very much improved K%. If they do trade him, it needs to be of something pretty significant because legitimate power is clearly a big time system need.
Chavis gets Dan Uggla comps and it makes sense. He's probably destined to play 2B. He is definitely our best chip and someone that won't find much playing time in the next 4 years in the majors if Pedey stays the course.
Apparently the Mets are not garnering much interest for the Duda/Bruce/Granderson trio of expiring contracts. is an interesting piece because he has been extremely clear about what he hopes the Mets front office does for him. All of them would provide much improved offensive input. Duda is the only one that makes sense positionally but Bruce and Granderson would be an important impact bat we desperately need.
Bruce has been better the past two years, but he was a complete flop when dealt mid season last year. I'm not sure if it was about him trying to carry the team, or facing the NL East with more frequency, or even just returning to the mean for his career (wRC+ 108). Learning a new league could be an issue. His performance has been really volatile the past 5 years, so I'm meh on him.
Granderson has been roughly Hanley this season with the bat .226/.324/.452 wRC+ 104. If Moreland gets healthy or bounces back, he can do that. There are better options for guys who can clear that more easily.
Alonso and Duda make the most sense to me. I'd take Duda because of his overall track record. All that said, if DD is really looking at a BAT, then it could be someone not our radar since the options are pretty wide.
Getting a good rental reliever helps more for the post season, and will barely move the needle for winning the division. The bat is way more important.
Granderson has been roughly Hanley this season with the bat .226/.324/.452 wRC+ 104. If Moreland gets healthy or bounces back, he can do that. There are better options for guys who can clear that more easily.
Alonso and Duda make the most sense to me. I'd take Duda because of his overall track record. All that said, if DD is really looking at a BAT, then it could be someone not our radar since the options are pretty wide.
Getting a good rental reliever helps more for the post season, and will barely move the needle for winning the division. The bat is way more important.
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Just a thought but if this keeps up I hope DD makes a move on Farrell. Every day you hear something new about this clubhouse reminds me way too much of 2011.
It would take more than DD, I would think, as in he'd need John Henry's sig on that move.
There is virtually no chance they replace the manager mid-season while they are squarely in a playoff race. If the team boots the next 10 games and falls 5 or 6 games out of the wild card, maybe. But they'd need to play even worse than they are now while the Yankees, Royals and Rays all went on good runs for that to happen.
I'm sure you are right, by which time it will be too late to see if Di Sarcina can pull off some Lovullo magic.
I can see that it's probably not realistic. But I think reading the tea leaves it would be the right move. There's no way he can be back as the manager next year if they have a similar ending as 2016. Clubhouse is a mess and no matter who they grab whether it's Wilson or whoever to stabilize this pen can change that.
I don't know if it would be wise to trade Price right now or what they could get for him and he actually seems like a good teammate overall but maybe look into it before July 31st.
Yankees have started a decent run. Maybe they're not worth crap, but all manager polls I've seen place Farrell in the middle, or worse. To go with his crummy in game moves and his dour, boring personality, he sucks. We deserve better.
It would be unusual if he got canned now, but I think if they either miss the playoffs or only manage a wild card and don't advance, then he's gone.
A late season collapse is what did Tito in, and that could be what happens to Farrell too. Generally he has done a good job managing the clubhouse which DD has complimented him on, but there may be some cracks showing this year.
A late season collapse is what did Tito in, and that could be what happens to Farrell too. Generally he has done a good job managing the clubhouse which DD has complimented him on, but there may be some cracks showing this year.
The "clubhouse is a mess" is based on what? One story about one incident on the plane? What else has happened to support this description? Show your work. Seriously.
If they can find a trade partner, it won't be much of a return. With the opt-out, there is too much uncertainty for a team to buy him as a long term asset, and at 31M per year, the Sox would have to kick in a bunch of money to get anything decent back. It would be a horrendous waste of resources.
I made no arguments about Farrell's quality as a manager. Fact still remains, they aren't firing a manager mid-season while that team is in the midst of a playoff race. And they certainly aren't doing so as part of reaction to a cold streak. You are never as good as your hot streaks nor as bad as you cold streaks. This team isn't nearly as bad as they look lately. This Eck story is making it easy to leap to ridiculous conclusions like "Clubhouse is a mess" but that doesn't make it logical.
Currently back tracking some on my thoughts that DD won't end up trading for a 1B.
Turning on the fun faucet just to immediately turn it back off after making a trade which he really should have been trying to make 6 months ago (instead of gulping down the Pablo koodaid), and then standing pat on one offensive acquisition that offers nothing over Devers in terms of potentially addressing our power shortage isn't exactly giving off the best look here atm/imo.
Turning on the fun faucet just to immediately turn it back off after making a trade which he really should have been trying to make 6 months ago (instead of gulping down the Pablo koodaid), and then standing pat on one offensive acquisition that offers nothing over Devers in terms of potentially addressing our power shortage isn't exactly giving off the best look here atm/imo.
And Pedroia told similar lies about his hand a few years ago. You have to expect him to say that.
I want Farrell gone as much as anyone, but it's not going to happen mid-season. I obviously have no real evidence to back up this theory, but I don't think this ownership believes in a shake-up like that happening in the middle of a season. I think they will make a move in the offseason as part of evaluations, like they did with Gump and Bobby V. When Farrell's job security was being called into question at one point a year or so ago, there was little indication that the front office was going to do anything, even before his cancer diagnosis. As much effort as they put into prying him away from a willing Toronto, I don't think they can fire him short of another last place finish (which I think might be impossible for the Sox at this point, even without scoring many runs per game) or a massive collapse like we saw at the end of Tito's tenure. But if they lose a few more series and fall to third and not even really in the wild card hunt, it's going to be a very tense final few weeks of the season. And if they rebound, whether they make a big deal or not, and make the playoffs, his job has to be safe for at least another season as long as he wants to come back. If they win a round or two, he probably has more rope than that. As far as Eck goes, I know the front office apologized to him and Farrell has not to this point, I don't think the ownership is going to replace Farrell because he give Eckersley the cold shoulder. If anything, they'll thank Eck for his time and look for someone equally dynamic to come in and do the job. I don't know if Pedro is interested but if he's not, there has to be one or two former Red Sox that are looking to get into media and have a personality at least semi-comparable to the Eck. Too bad Schilling has gone off the deep end of the deep end or he might be perfect. But Farrell, sadly, is not going anywhere barring truly unforeseen circumstances.
Everybody in the world outside of Larry Lucchino and people that love to see the Sox suffer knew that they had to fire Bobby V. by July if not sooner and they still didn't can him until after the season. Maybe Larry was the only one keeping him in the dugout. Farrell likely doesn't have any ally as powerful as LL anywhere in the org in 2017, but this situation isn't even in the same universe as the Bobby V disaster. They're going to live or die with his gigantic CEO head in the dugout for better or worse.
Since we're probably done with the lineup, the 3 bullpen arms out there in terms of both quality and cost are:
1) Brad Hand
2) Justin Wilson
3) Addison Reed
I would only trade Chavis for one of the first two, and only for Reed if Duda were involved as well. But judging from the Phillies' return for Neshek, a 1/2 year rental reliever will take a lotto arm and a position player in the system. Not a bad price. I hope we jump on it.
1) Brad Hand
2) Justin Wilson
3) Addison Reed
I would only trade Chavis for one of the first two, and only for Reed if Duda were involved as well. But judging from the Phillies' return for Neshek, a 1/2 year rental reliever will take a lotto arm and a position player in the system. Not a bad price. I hope we jump on it.
Even if he was healthy enough, how much would you trust him? I'd like to see them add someone who can handle some high leverage innings. Justin Wilson would be perfect, but even still, Smith is a possible bonus that shouldn't be counted on for anything.
Yeah if Carson Smith could give us an inning from now until September 30th I would be shocked. He's started to throw again but is racing the clock.
Wilson is probably #1 on my wish list. 35% K rate overall, 42% against lefties. There are a little worrisome stats on him though.
His LOB% is real high (83%) and HR/FB rate is a little rough and it comes with a 50% fly ball rate. He also hasn't been great in high leverage spots this year (10 innings, 1.3 WHIP/.335 wOBA)
Not much — I'm just wary of trades for relievers after the Shaw-Thornburg debacle. And the Sox are #3 in MLB in bullpen ERA, with Joe Kelly also apparently on his way back soon.
Obviously the more quality bullpen arms the better, so long as what we're giving up has next-to-zero chance of becoming Jeff Bagwell or 2017 Travis Shaw.
Assuming they add an arm, the obvious move is to DFA Fister. When Kelly comes back, who loses their job? The arm likely will be better than at least the bottom three guys, but none of them have options and still have use. My guess is that one of them gets traded.
Kimbrel
Barnes
Acquisition
Workman
Hembree
Boyer
Abad
One other thing to consider after picking someone up is how to deal with a pen that is spent. They have been able to work around it because a few of their guys had options, but now that all 5 rotation guys are up and healthy, Workman is the only pitcher with them. Blaine Boyer or Fernando Abad could have some serious gout issues between now and September 1.
Kimbrel
Barnes
Acquisition
Workman
Hembree
Boyer
Abad
One other thing to consider after picking someone up is how to deal with a pen that is spent. They have been able to work around it because a few of their guys had options, but now that all 5 rotation guys are up and healthy, Workman is the only pitcher with them. Blaine Boyer or Fernando Abad could have some serious gout issues between now and September 1.
If Kelly's return is imminent (about a week away they estimate: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/1794767/joe-kelly) I'm in favor of standing pat with the bullpen. Whether or not Smith joins, we have a solid pen and don't need to raid the farm anymore IMO.
I would much rather have Reed than Wilson, even at the same cost. If Reed is cheaper, all the better.
Reed has a significantly lower walk rate, and is not benefiting from an absurdly low babip. I think he's less likely to regress than Wilson.
Reed has a significantly lower walk rate, and is not benefiting from an absurdly low babip. I think he's less likely to regress than Wilson.
Duda to the Rays.
It's seems as if the teams trailing the Red Sox have made significant moves, both of which were moves that also blocked the Red Sox from players they might be targeting.
It's seems as if the teams trailing the Red Sox have made significant moves, both of which were moves that also blocked the Red Sox from players they might be targeting.
The only thing I can conclude here is that Dombrowski didn't want Duda, because a future 7th-inning reliever, which is what the Rays gave up, is something we have an abundance of in our farm system.
Maybe we shot our wad, all the way back to Sale, who was kind of a surprise at the time, wasn't he? Cupboard's bare.
They got him for their 30th prospect. They got him for basically nothing.
I'm starting to think it's a money thing, which is pretty discouraging.
The cupboard certainly isn't bare when it comes to the kind of guy the Rays traded to get Duda.
Yeah of course Alderson may have specifically preferred Smith, but Duda was a nice fit and we could have beat that. Instead he goes to one of the two teams nipping at our heels.
Maybe they have a better card up their sleeve to work on before Mon/ Tues, but I will be fascinated to hear their thinking if they don't add a bat.
Maybe they have a better card up their sleeve to work on before Mon/ Tues, but I will be fascinated to hear their thinking if they don't add a bat.
If the tax is stopping them from adding pieces to help the team win then that's a shame. They've spent all this money and assets on this team and now money matters?
That they haven't to this point taken advantage of this buyers hitting market is beyond me. Their farm system is made for those types of deals.
If they got Nunez 2 days ago who is superfluous, after Devers was brought up, why wasn't something done a week ago when Frazier was acquired and Devers had barely hit AAA.
There could be something in the cards, but it's baffling so far.
Two playoff contenders in their own division have upgraded significantly and they seem asleep to this point.
If they got Nunez 2 days ago who is superfluous, after Devers was brought up, why wasn't something done a week ago when Frazier was acquired and Devers had barely hit AAA.
There could be something in the cards, but it's baffling so far.
Two playoff contenders in their own division have upgraded significantly and they seem asleep to this point.
The new CBA changed a few things, and a
I'd wager half that money wouldn't have been spent the way it was if they'd been operating under the current CBA instead of the old one.
They could be counting on the existing players to play to their normal level, but is that realistic when there is a Papi-sized hole in the lineup? I don't think it's necessarily a coincidence that some of the younger guys started struggling once Moreland stopped being a useful bat, for instance.
Abreu has three years of arbitration left after this season, and has been approximately a .300/30hr guy for going on four years now. Getting him probably starts with both Devers and Groome. Maybe it's worth it, giving the window we have right now with Sale, Price, Kimbrel, and the B's as a core, but it would lay complete and utter waste to the farm system once and for all.
Well, tv revenues are trending down. Stadium revenues likely trending down. They have a roster with a lot of cheap players that will soon be a expensive. There's a window of 2 more years before it is likely blown up. What's discouraging is that despite a GFIN mentality, they are at best the 6-7th best team in baseball. And not likely to be better next year while teams in their division will be. Oh, and the farm system kind of stinks
So either really gofor it, or stay under the tax this year knowing no chance you will win and then sign a big money FA and try again in 18-19
Based on the bats moved so far this deadline it is going to be nowhere near that amount.
The number 6 prospect in baseball is not going to be moved for a non elite expensive first baseman. He's going to be paid well over 10 million in arbitration and is on par with Duda offensively.
Prospects like that get moved for cost controlled starting pitchers. Doubt Groome would be needed either.
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I don't think it's close to panic time yet, because there are still lots of good power hitting targets if they want to improve the order. All the smoke surrounding relievers in light of this market is a bit confusing to me. In other words, it's presumably much cheaper to improve this team through power hitting than bullpen help.
None of this actually matters though, because Big Papi is getting ready to don the jersey for one more run.
None of this actually matters though, because Big Papi is getting ready to don the jersey for one more run.
He's a roughly 2 WAR player. BA and HR totals aren't indicative of actual value. Also, those three arb. years start following him making $13.3M in 2016 and $10.8M in 2017 (he has a player option to turn it into a guaranteed 3 year/$34M contract). He'll likely see arb. awards in the mid-teens all three seasons, maybe topping out in the high teens by the end of it, and that'll come when he's in his early 30's.
This isn't analogous to the price you'd pay for 1.5 pre-arb. seasons and three years of arb. control on a young, 2WAR player entering his prime. Devers would be a massive overpay. Groome would be an overpay justified by the mid-season market, but that mid-season market isn't paying for hitters so far. Together is the kind of package no team would expect if the return piece isn't Bryce Harper or Mike Trout as far as position players are concerned.
I'd suggest something like Sam Travis/Michael Chavis + Brian Johnson/Jalen Beeks + a lottery ticket with Mitch Moreland going back this season to off-set some of the luxury tax implications would be a pretty reasonable starting point.
Kintzler being made available should help push the price down on relievers with more supply.
I think they are done on offense. I could be wrong but I think Hanley at 1B with Devers DH'ing is the plan. Unless it's something substantially better than what they would produce, which is doubtful.
I think they are done on offense. I could be wrong but I think Hanley at 1B with Devers DH'ing is the plan. Unless it's something substantially better than what they would produce, which is doubtful.