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What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Trotsky, Jul 12, 2017.

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Hm, whaddayall think?

  1. Stand Pat 1. Go through the season with the roster as it is today until rosters expand

    10 vote(s)
    5.2%
  2. Stand Pat 2. Release Pablo, Peralta and bring up Devers before expansion

    50 vote(s)
    25.9%
  3. Stand Pat 3. BROCK HOLT!!!! to the rescue

    17 vote(s)
    8.8%
  4. Trade for a 3rd baseman

    53 vote(s)
    27.5%
  5. Trade for bullpen help

    62 vote(s)
    32.1%
  6. Trade for starting pitching....EdRod isn't coming back this season....

    1 vote(s)
    0.5%
  1. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I can't tell if you're being sarcastic; do to really think the HRD had anything to do with that? Or was it the OPS+ of 116 and 105 be put up as a 22 and 23 year old his last two years in Cincy? He was already a lefty masher and there was hope he'd develop against righties. Not really sure what caused his decline, but he was well thought of at the time and nobody thought Arroyo was a crazy price to pay.
     
  2. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    8,202
    Pena had a bit of excess oxygen because he was a highly ranked prospect in a relatively thin Reds system. He could hit the ball a mile but he struck out a ton and didn't have the defense or the batting eye to make up the difference. Even guys like Incaviglia and this board's namesake had significantly better control of the zone.

    Many people (myself included) felt that Arroyo was a lighting in a bottle scenario whose numbers except innings pitched trended down in his second season with the Sox. Even if he was basically the pitcher he proved to be in that second season, we underrated the value of someone who can give league average performance over a full season's worth of innings. He's also a guy who has outperformed his peripherals his entire career -- obviously there's a skill there that people (myself included, again) did not appreciate at the time.
     
  3. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

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    What do folks here consider a fair return for the rumored potential acquisition of Frazier and Robertson from Chicago? Chavis and a fringe prospect?
     
  4. JohntheBaptist

    JohntheBaptist Member SoSH Member

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    10,610
    I do think Wily Mo Pena's HRD title drove up the price, yes, just as I said it will Frazier's. Why would it for one guy and not the other?
     
  5. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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  6. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah. That's what I'd guess. Someone like Jamie Callahan or Roniel Raudes... depending on how much money the White Sox eat.
     
  7. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I can't find any evidence that Pena actually participated in a HR Derby?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Run_Derby_(Major_League_Baseball)

    In Frazier's case, I could maybe see it if we were talking about the derby last week. But it was 2015. I'm sure the White Sox will try and sell it because why wouldn't they, but I can't see a major league GM giving any weight to a batting practice session he had two years ago when he's had about 1,200 actual plate appearances to focus on since that tinme.
     
  8. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    I guess this comes down to whether DD thinks Chavis' breakout this year is real. If it IS real then that would only be defensible if the current injury concerns - Kelly and, more importantly, Carson Smith are serious.

    If Chavis keeps this up for the whole year then you'd have to think he's a top 50 prospect - which is not something you want to peddle for a marginal upgrade like David Robertson.
     
  9. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    While I'd give up someone in the 11-20 range for Frazier, or Nishak, I probably would not include Chavis even if the White Sox included Robertson. I don't see Robertson as worth that much more to us than Nishak, or someone similar (especially when you take Robertson's salary into account).
     
  10. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    He does seem fairly cooked overall but he's such a good clubhouse guy that I doubt he gets DFA'd due to his role being a complementary one. I wouldn't mind being wrong.

    Though when rosters expand I could see Brentz getting some of his at bats.
     
  11. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I agree with the BCsMJY but the cupboard is pretty bare so if they want both that is likely going to be the ballpark price. Maybe you could substitute Groome for Chavis but after Devers those are the only two guys they have with enough value to be the main piece in even a smallish deal like this.
    If the White Sox just want to get rid of the salaries and they can do it without those guys then sure why not.
     
  12. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    26,378
    There's nothing marginal about the upgrade. Joe Kelly is smoke and mirrors and is almost certain to regress heavily, Matt Barnes is not reliable enough to be a setup man (his poor road stats match up with the rest of his career really well, so I'm guessing his home numbers are a mirage) and there's really nothing else in the pen that's been all that good unless you want to put your faith in Fernando Abad. There are some pretty ERA's but when you look past them, the bullpen is fairly ugly behind Kimbrel.

    David Robertson would immediately become the second best reliever on the team. As for Thornburg, I wouldn't count on him getting back on the mound again this season. Thoracic Outlet syndrome is no joke. And Carson Smith has already had to be sidelined once in his attempt to return from TJ surgery, so counting on him is also probably a bad idea. Plus, even if he gets back on the mound, control is usually the last thing to return while recovering and I'm not sure that's what I want to be dealing with late in games down the stretch or in the playoffs.

    They need to add at least one reliever, even if they are high on Workman and Maddox.

    And to respond to the idea that Chavis is a top 50 prospect, that's iffy but a defensible position. BA has him in the top 100 right now, so he's not far from that already. And even if you assume his Salem numbers are at least partly due to a hot streak where he was hitting beyond his actual talent level, given what that stadium does to power numbers, there HAS to be some level of sustainable power there to end up where he did. So yeah, I think he could be a top 50 guy going into next year. He's got 4 HR in Portland already, so the power is carrying over.

    That said, where would he play in Boston? Devers is clearly ahead of him in the depth chart and is a much much better defender than Chavis, so he's not getting pushed over to 1st for him. He's only 5'10" so he's not really tall enough to play 1st regularly. Hanley is tied up for next year and probably 2019, so DH isn't open any time soon.

    The best value he can provide to this club is likely as a trade chip, and even if the breakout is for real, he's not going to be the kind of prospect who can headline a blockbuster. So why not let him carry the bulk of the load in getting two pieces needed for a playoff run this year from a team that can afford to eat those contracts and not put the Sox over the LT threshold? And keep in mind that Robertson is under contract for next year, too. So there's some extra value there.

    Given how thin the system has been and how much depth they were able to work in through the draft and the IFA signing period, I think I'd rather see one solid but not great prospect going to Chicago with a fringe guy added in than 2 or 3 solid prospects from the new influx of talent. The system needs depth right now, and Chavis would offer a more efficient path toward paying for Frazier and Robertson, should that be what Dombrowski is trying to do.
     
  13. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I can't see any way Groome gets moved in a deal involving Robertson. I mean he's solid and all but if that were the price they'd just go get Neshek or someone else. Look at what the Nats gave up for two bullpen arms arguably as good as Robertson has been this year. Neither were anywhere close to a top 100 prospect.
     
  14. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    2,991
    In case anyone wass counting on Thornburg coming back this year, he's out for the year.
     
  15. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    The only way DDski should take on both Frazier and Robertson's full salary (~ $11 MM remaining) and have it make any sense at all, is if all three of Young and Abad and Holt are headed the opposite direction (~ $5MM remaining).

    But if the White Sox want some young players of actual value (as they should), they'll just eat part of the salary so that Boston absorbs at most $6MM of salary liability instead and therefore have to build a much better prospect package.

    [edit: Engrish]
     
    #115 Buzzkill Pauley, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
  16. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

    Messages:
    108
    Which is why I'd rather he try to get Neshak or someone of that ilk rather than Robertson - price (acquisition cost and salary) for Robertson not worth the cost in prospects.
     
  17. Zososoxfan

    Zososoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    3,374
    After reading that, Frazier makes even more sense to me. This is a high floor, low ceiling move that shouldn't cost a lot. He would add 100 points of slugging (.327 --> .432) and about 50 points of OBP (.283 --> .328) to 3B production. Certainly not a middle of the order bat, but potentially lengthens the lineup enough to avoid team-wide slumps and improve depth.
     
  18. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    7,815
    What would it take to clean them out and get Abreu, Frazier and Robertson? Obviously they would have to take Moreland back, but if we absorbed all the salary would Chavis, Groome, Swihart and 2-3 mid level pieces get it done? Caveat of very unlikely but I could see Hahn offering them to DD, knowing how aggressive DD can be.
     
  19. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

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    9,170
    I actually had the thought yesterday on Abreu. They really need more power, but I really think they'd have to over pay for him. It wouldn't shock me, but I very much doubt it. Abreu has 2.5 years left
     
  20. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    22,178
    Last year when they got Pomeranz, it was about 2 weeks before the deadline, because they thought the price would rise as they got closer and they get an extra few weeks out of the player.

    Wondering if something gets done this week, as the smoke has been out there regarding Frazier for a while now.
     
  21. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

    Messages:
    108
    I think what you suggest might be slightly more than it would take. But the biggest question is whether DD would be willing to give up Groome to get Abreau. I probably wouldn't, given the absence of any other top-of-the-rotation pieces in the farm system. I would probably only send Groome in a deal for a bat even bigger/better than Abreau, which is even more unlikely.
     
  22. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    28,101
    White SOX are off today
     
  23. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    26,378
    He has the 24th best xFIP and the 30th best K/BB of qualifying relievers this year. And again, he'd immediately be the second best pitcher in the bullpen if he came to Boston. He's worth a solid prospect if the White Sox eat enough of his and Frazier's contracts to keep the Sox under the LT threshold.

    While I'd love to land Abreu, I don't see how they can afford all three of their salaries and not including Devers. Abreu has 3 arb 2 years in front of him, so his value is not insubstantial and they could conceivably be planning on him being at the center of their lineup once their farm turns into a contending roster. So as pricey as Groome, Chavis, Swihart and some mid level guys are, I don't think it's enough.

    Plus, Abreu makes 10.825M this year, Frazier and Robertson are at 12M each. There just isn't a way to make the math work on salaries to keep the Sox under the LT threshold even if they were willing to include Devers in the first place (and I don't think they are) and that seems to be pretty important to them.

    Edit: Cot's had him as Arb 2 and Arb 3 in the payroll obligations spreadsheet, but they have his actual contract details on the main team page. Fixed the discrepancy.
     
  24. Maximus

    Maximus Member SoSH Member

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    2,039
    I think the DD would have made a deal already for Frazier but he hasn't made a decision on what reliever he wants or can get thus delaying a Frazier/Robertson deal. Historically, he always acts quickly and decisively (Price, Sale, Young, Smith, Thornburg).
     
  25. UncleStinkfinger

    UncleStinkfinger lurker

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    82
    Wow, I love this idea. We need power at first and third and for some reason nobody's talking about first base. I just don't like the way Moreland's playing.
     
  26. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    1,326
    I would love it too, but no way it happens without Devers, right?
     
  27. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I actually don't think Abreu would cost that much in prospects unless Chicago ate most of his salary. There just isn't enough surplus value on his contract to justify a blue chipper.

    He was paid 10 million last year and netted about 3 million of total value. He has been better this year, but that arbitration figure is going up, so he's not really going to be a bargain going forward, coupled with the fact that the Yankees are maybe the other only other team looking 1b help.

    Definitely an upgrade in this line up, but he'd be further down my list of options.
     
    #127 grimshaw, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
  28. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    1,326
    I understand your point, but I just think that with 2 years left on his contract after this season, CWS won't trade him now unless someone is really willing to overpay. I get that his WAR isn't great due to position/poor defensive metrics, but he's exactly the type of player with lowish WAR that a team might overpay for. He's still a career .299/.358/.514 hitter.
     
  29. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    38,467
    Frazier is 1 for his last 19, a double on Saturday. He'd fit right in, huh?
     
  30. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    2,245
    He opted out of his contract so he's now arbitration eligible. Really the only salary relief would be this season.
     
  31. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    The it works is if the Chi Sox are willing to take Hanley as one of the pieces headed out to Chicago.

    Basically, that move would allow Boston to "upgrade" from Hanley to Abreu, rotate Young and Moreland and Abreu at DH/1B, and stay under the LT so that the team can reset their penalty before Harper is on the market.

    Of course, if they take on that much salary, Groome is probably in that package, too. I still might do it. The Red Sox have been so terrible developing starters, it may be better to use their pitching prospects as trade chips exclusively. Of course, continuing to trade away all ther best ones may make that a self-fulfilling prophecy.
     
  32. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Why would Chicago take back Hanley if they're giving up Abreu? He's more expensive and he's locked up longer term (Abreu is arb-eligible so he's year to year). The only reasons for Chicago to move Abreu now is a boatload of prospects, salary relief or both.

    I'm betting Hahn could find a better package for Abreu than one headlined by Groome without having to take on extra salary like Hanley's.
     
  33. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Consider, for example, the first base issues for the team the Red Sox just played.

    It makes little sense for the White Sox to package three top chips into one deal ... particularly to a team where they already picked off a couple of the best prospects in the Sale deal. This fanwish fulfillment of getting three of a team's best players for a secondary package of prospects is not particularly well thought-out
     
  34. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not saying they would do it, I'm saying that's the kind of trade theyes would need to do to make the numbers work.

    If you bundle Groome and Chavis with Hanley, that might well be better young talent than the White Sox cold get for any of their remaining pieces separatly, now that Quintana is gone.

    Not recommending a course of action ... just playing with the salaries.
     
  35. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah, this is where I stand too. The Abreu idea just doesn't make sense, no matter how you slice it. The only way a Hanley inclusion to offset money makes sense is if the White Sox can line up a third team to flip him to. And then we're veering into Theo territory, and we all know how that usually plays out at the deadline. Nothing ends up happening.

    Plus, that's about as far from Dombrowski's style as it gets. As much as I like the idea of Abreu in a Red Sox uniform, I'd be shocked if something like this happened.
     
  36. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    I'm actually quite high on Kelly - I don't think you could chalk up his sustained performance as "smoke and mirrors". Barnes, on the other hand I'm not as keen on.

    But my main issue is I don't think the Organization, as a whole, is in a position to be trading anymore of its top prospects. IMO, the above talk of trading Groome is absurd. Chavis maybe - if a real long term upgrade is involved, Devers no, no, no.

    Trade some chaff to get Frazier now, use the next couple of weeks to evaluate the pen and - hopefully - get a handle on Smith's health. He's about to go on rehab IIRC - or is, at least throwing side sessions. If they're still unsure then see whats available.

    Next winter is the time to upgrade 1B when they don't have to worry about the LT.
     
  37. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Bob Nightengale offers up one of those "we surveyed execs and here's what they think" columns:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...line-rumors-sonny-gray-jd-martinez/484205001/
     
  38. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'm not trying to be snarky here, but why are you high on Kelly? He's got a 3.39 FIP and a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.63 K/BB rate. His HR/9 is 0.25 which is due for massive regression. I see absolutely no reason to believe he's anything other than the guy he's always been. A roughly 4.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitcher and that's really nothing special as a reliever. I mean, he's still walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. I want nothing to do with him close and late in the playoffs.

    They just had a very nice influx of depth at the lower levels, so I think trying to cash in on guys like Chavis who may be at the apex of their value, isn't necessarily a bad idea. If the White Sox are willing to kick in enough money to keep the Sox under the LT threshold while sending over Frazier and Robertson (who is also under contract next year), that seems like a good use of resources to me.

    The problem with this approach is that you risk being the last one standing when the music stops and no chairs are left to sit in.

    I agree here. The Abreu speculation is silly.
     
  39. SouthernBoSox

    SouthernBoSox Member SoSH Member

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  40. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Did he get that prediction directly from Hahn? Yikes.

    Chavis and Groome for Frazier and Robertson seems steep unless the White Sox are eating at least half of what they're owed. Downgrading Robertson to a guy who's had a hot first half after three solid but lackluster years in middle relief and expecting it to cost the same prospects is lunacy.
     
  41. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I would think Groomes' value wouldn't be too far off from Anderson Espinoza' last year which got us Pomeranz. Both very young low A starters with ace upside though Espinoza was probably better thought of last year.

    I'd love Kahnle with Frazier - but him and Chavis together seems a bit pricey. I think most teams would take a pitcher like Pomeranz over the Kahnle/Frazier pacakge.
     
  42. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    Agreed - that suggestion is a huge overpay, and just insane, even if the Sox farm system were still flush (which it isn't). Chavis might go in such a deal (although I wouldn't include Robertson (or Kahnle) if it cost me Chavis, and certainly wouldn't trade Chavis for Frazier), but no way Groome goes in that deal.
     
  43. strek1

    strek1 Member SoSH Member

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    In years like 2013 the "Good clubhouse guy" narrative was a huge plus. The massive roller coaster that is the 2017 Red Sox offense isn't getting much boost from attitude. Cut Chris Young loose and add a productive bat if possible.
     
  44. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    2,245
    I'd even just limit his playing time to a true bench outfielder and let Beni hit lefties.
     
  45. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    This is the kind of package I'd offer if I also wanted to unload a bunch of bad salary in a deal.
     
  46. PrometheusWakefield

    PrometheusWakefield Nasty, brutish, and short SoSH Member

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    Todd Frazier, 2017 actual: .207/.328/.432
    Rafael Devers, 2017 Steamer Projection: .268/.308/.435

    The Red Sox should not trade anything of value for Todd Frazier.
     
  47. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    Really, really hope Sox don't overpay for yet another reliever. Let's see what Workman/Maddox have to offer before we pay a premium for a "proven vet". Most teams build their pen from the minors no reason to overpay for what may be at best a minor upgrade and could just as easily be a downgrade over what they already have.
     
  48. trekfan55

    trekfan55 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,866
    I posted this before, last year the Yankees got a haul for two relievers in separate deals. But both were premium relievers and both proved valuable pieces in helping their new teams get a pennant.

    Whoever has a reliever to trade is looking at those deals and looking for that kind of haul but it's not happening unless Cleveland decides to trade Miller. The A's got good value but not even close to what the Yankees got and with good reason.
     
  49. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    The Globe has a brief note on Workman "feeling as good as ever" today. That might be a hint from the braintrust that he figures in their deadline plans, i.e. we might not be swinging any big deals for setup guys. The Globe has pushed its share of team narratives over they years.
     
  50. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Chavis for Kahnle isn't really that crazy; Kahnle is 27 and under control for three more years, and though this is the first year he's harnessed his stuff to become dominant, the stuff is legit. And I don't think anybody thinks Chavis is going to be a superstar; his glove is suspect and his swing-happy approach seems likely to limit his offensive ceiling. He could be a solid player, but he could also be mediocre or bust completely, and he's very unlikely to be great. So this would not be Bagwell-for-Anderson, not on either side.

    Groome for two months of Frazier, though, is just nuts. And I'm as pro-Frazier as anybody around here.
     

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