What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?

Hm, whaddayall think?

  • Stand Pat 1. Go through the season with the roster as it is today until rosters expand

    Votes: 9 4.4%
  • Stand Pat 2. Release Pablo, Peralta and bring up Devers before expansion

    Votes: 55 27.0%
  • Stand Pat 3. BROCK HOLT!!!! to the rescue

    Votes: 18 8.8%
  • Trade for a 3rd baseman

    Votes: 55 27.0%
  • Trade for bullpen help

    Votes: 65 31.9%
  • Trade for starting pitching....EdRod isn't coming back this season....

    Votes: 2 1.0%

  • Total voters
    204

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I'd think the Mets would love to package Reed with Bruce.
Problem is that unless the Mets are eating money, the Red Sox probably can't afford both of those players without exceeding the luxury tax. Their pro-rated salaries combined would be about $7.5M and last I heard, the Sox had somewhere in the neighborhood of $6M to play with.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Problem is that unless the Mets are eating money, the Red Sox probably can't afford both of those players without exceeding the luxury tax. Their pro-rated salaries combined would be about $7.5M and last I heard, the Sox had somewhere in the neighborhood of $6M to play with.
Taking a salary like Young back instead might leave them squeezing under too I guess.
 

glennhoffmania

meat puppet
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,411,599
NY
I saw something on a crawl but wasn't sure I read it correctly. I figured there would be something in this thread or I was hallucinating.
 

glennhoffmania

meat puppet
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,411,599
NY
Ok I was watching NESN on mute in the gym and it looks like they were listing trades from past years. I thought DD had a stroke for a minute. Carry on.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,816
Honolulu HI
The point is that May is an extreme outlier and that outside of that, Alonso has more closely resembled the guy he's always been. So unless you think Moreland is not healing and not likely to any time soon, or that he's suddenly and inexplicably become a .384 OPS hitter, going forward Alonso likely doesn't represent a significant upgrade over Moreland. Maybe 5-10% more production relative to league average and probably similar power numbers..
And my point is that you greatly exaggerated your point. Yes, Alonso had a big month in May but to say he's pretty much "who he's always been" outside of that month is just false. Prior to this season Alonso's single-season career high in home runs was 9 in 2012. This season he hit 10 home runs in May and has already hit 11 home runs outside of May. So yes, he is probably not the Ruthian slugger he looked like in May but it's also clear that Alonso is a much improved player, and that that improvement has been pretty evident throughout the 2017 season.
Earlier this week Fangraph's Travis Sawchik attempted to assess Alonso's current value to contenders in need of a 1st basemen. Here's what he concluded:
"Alonso’s bat has cooled off after a scalding start. He produced a .870 OPS in April and 1.228 mark in May, but figures of .786 and .776 in June and July, respectively. The good news for the A’s and Alonso is his plate discipline remains intact; he’s posted at least an 11.8% walk rate each month. Also, the power continues to seem real, as 28% of his fly balls have gone for home runs in July.
Overall, Alonso’s breakout seems legitimate. He ranks 22nd in xwOBA (.375), sandwiched between Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan Zimmerman. But since June 1, he ranks 149th (.330), something more resembling a good hitter rather than an elite one.

But the other bit of good news is after his June and early July cooling period, Alonso’s batted-ball profile is trending in the right direction again:



The A’s are perhaps also attempting to advertise and boost his intangible value. What does it all mean? Well, while Alonso might not be the star-level slugger he was in April and May, he has made real improvement and performance gains. He’s certainly a different kind of hitter. And he can probably help a contender for a modest return."

My point isn't that Alonso is a superstar, but instead that nobody expects that he will cost much in talent to acquire and he would be an improvement - potentially a dramatic improvement if Moreland doesn't turn it around - at 1st base. If the acquisition cost is low (and judging from the return the Mets got for Duda and the Tigers got for Martinez, it's going to be low) why wouldn't you protect yourself against the possibility that Moreland doesn't bounce back - especially if in doing so you can simultaneously prevent the Yankees (one of the only teams in the league with worse production at 1B and currently the team rumored to have the most interest in Alonso) from bolstering their production at position?
 
Last edited:

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
My point isn't that Alonso is a superstar, but instead that nobody expects that he will cost much in talent to acquire and he would be an improvement - potentially a dramatic improvement if Moreland doesn't turn it around - at 1st base. If the acquisition cost is low (and judging from the return the Mets got for Duda and the Tigers got for Martinez, it's going to be low) why wouldn't you protect yourself against the possibility that Moreland doesn't bounce back - especially if in doing so you can simultaneously prevent the Yankees (one of the only teams in the league with worst production at 1B and currently the team rumored to have the most interest in Alonso) from bolstering their production at position?
Because you only have 25 roster spots and using 3 of them on 1B/DH only types is a terrible idea. Unless you can DL Moreland, and you can't force him there if he doesn't think he needs to be there, they can't add Alonso to this roster as insurance. That means finding another team to take Moreland, which makes it incredibly unlikely this will happen. The A's have no use for him and aren't going to want to eat his contract unless the Sox up the prospect package going their way, which defeats the purpose if you are looking for a cheap upgrade or insurance policy.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,816
Honolulu HI
Because you only have 25 roster spots and using 3 of them on 1B/DH only types is a terrible idea. Unless you can DL Moreland, and you can't force him there if he doesn't think he needs to be there, they can't add Alonso to this roster as insurance. That means finding another team to take Moreland, which makes it incredibly unlikely this will happen. The A's have no use for him and aren't going to want to eat his contract unless the Sox up the prospect package going their way, which defeats the purpose if you are looking for a cheap upgrade or insurance policy.
Moreland just had a historically bad month and is currently the worst hitting 1st baseman (by OPS among qualified batters) in the Majors. If he refuses a DL assignment I am perfectly comfortable designating him for assignment.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Moreland just had a historically bad month and is currently the worst hitting 1st baseman (by OPS among qualified batters) in the Majors. If he refuses a DL assignment I am perfectly comfortable designating him for assignment.
You might not, the Red Sox probably would, however, as it could impact their ability to attract marginal roster additions in future free agent markets. This isn't fantasy baseball. And all of this is predicated on a belief that this terrible month is establishing a new baseline talent level. It's a shitty month They happen. The Sox are apparently pretty confident that he's likely to improve going forward or they'd have been in on Duda or would be rumored to be in on Alonso.

Maybe Dombrowski is doing it super stealthy and I'm wrong. But I'd be surprised if they add anything more than a bullpen arm because Moreland isn't going anywhere.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,816
Honolulu HI
You might not, the Red Sox probably would, however, as it could impact their ability to attract marginal roster additions in future free agent markets. This isn't fantasy baseball. And all of this is predicated on a belief that this terrible month is establishing a new baseline talent level. It's a shitty month They happen. .
I'm not sure how to research monthly statistics before 2000 (that's as far back as ESPN allows) but Moreland's .384 OPS for the month of July is the worst monthly OPS for a 1st Baseman since 2000 - and probably much longer than that. For a 1st basemen, months like this -almost literally - never happen.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I'm not sure how to research monthly statistics before 2000 (that's as far back as ESPN allows) but Moreland's .384 OPS for the month of July is the worst monthly OPS for a 1st Baseman since 2000 - and probably much longer than that. For a 1st basemen, months like this -almost literally - never happen.
Are you arguing that July establishes a new baseline expectation for Moreland going forward?
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,670
I'm not sure how to research monthly statistics before 2000 (that's as far back as ESPN allows) but Moreland's .384 OPS for the month of July is the worst monthly OPS for a 1st Baseman since 2000 - and probably much longer than that. For a 1st basemen, months like this -almost literally - never happen.
So your suggestion is that a small sample size can actually have some potential of being predictive going forward when the results of the sample are an extreme outlier. This is true, and therefore worrisome. Hopefully he turns it around, or gets healthy, but there's a lot riding on that hope.

Edit: To be clear to Snodgrass, I'm suggesting that it's reasonable to be concerned it was more than an off month. But, then, I thought Ortiz was dead in the water several years ago.
 

PudgeFIST

New Member
Aug 19, 2016
39
You might not, the Red Sox probably would, however, as it could impact their ability to attract marginal roster additions in future free agent markets. This isn't fantasy baseball.
You've been here a long time and I've read your posts for years. You're smarter than this. Guys sign and get DFA'd all the time.
It's baseball, you get paid no matter what.
You think cutting bait with a high profile sign like Smoltz mid season effected their ability to sign guys one iota?
I sure don't.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Would anyone really be upset if DD did nothing? The team isn't winning anything this year and the idea of trading anything of value for a rental seems incredibly stupid. When added my personal opinion that the Eed Sox scouting department is about two years behind and I say trade only of getting rid of flotsam
Price seemingly being such a question mark atm has my thought process on that going either way.

If the behind the scenes outlook on Price being reliable in the near future is a grim one, then I wouldn't be overly upset if we didn't do much. But I would expect a much more aggressive plan going in to the off-season then just adding piece to the current status quo. Shake up the lineup construction, shop some core pieces around, hopefully bring in some more very good/young/cheap pitching talent that isn't leaving us overly stressed out about having to eat Price's salary or being forced to pay Kimbrel a record breaking deal, ect ect.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
So your suggestion is that a small sample size can actually have some potential of being predictive going forward when the results of the sample are an extreme outlier. This is true, and therefore worrisome. Hopefully he turns it around, or gets healthy, but there's a lot riding on that hope.

Edit: To be clear to Snodgrass, I'm suggesting that it's reasonable to be concerned it was more than an off month. But, then, I thought Ortiz was dead in the water several years ago.
I'm not arguing there's no reason to be concerned. I'm pointing out that Alonso isn't the automatic upgrade that some appear to assume he is, and he can't just be traded for without making room for him, so the chances that the Sox go in this direction are very slim.

You've been here a long time and I've read your posts for years. You're smarter than this. Guys sign and get DFA'd all the time.
It's baseball, you get paid no matter what.
You think cutting bait with a high profile sign like Smoltz mid season effected their ability to sign guys one iota?
I sure don't.
In 2009 Smoltz was worse than Fister has been this year. He had an 8.33 ERA and a 4.95 FIP in Boston. And he was 39 trying to make one last go of it as a major leaguer. That's an awful comp.

Moreland was a good hitter up until he got hurt. Cutting him now to trade for a guy who probably won't be better going forward than Moreland was up until the broken toe is a completely different scenario. Again, unless the Sox have reason to believe Moreland won't get back to something resembling what he was before the injury they're not dumping him for Yonder Alonso.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,470
Somewhere
I could see the Sox making a trade for another Ziegler type this year. Sam Freeman from the Braves might make sense.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Bogaerts hasn't hit a ball hard in weeks and weeks.
The danger is that the young guys are what they are. Their "slumps" have been going on since mid-May. Did we get too excited about them? In any case, I don't see how trading for another bat solves anything without the kids showing that they're the hitters we though they were and for all I know - that doesn't happen until next year.

Arms make more sense to me if the price is right. Then, if the bats come alive, the team has pieces in place to prevent runs.
 

Clears Cleaver

Lil' Bill
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
11,370
Since he "bruised" his hand on that HBP. Seems to be making better contact the last couple of days but not really any lasers
That's the easy narrative but he wasn't driving the ball in April and may, either. He lunges at everything and was slapping and bapipping all over the place. The only pitches he'd hit hard were at n off the plate where he could square up despite clearing out his hips early.

The best way to fix this. And mookie. And Hanley. Is to force each of them to stay close and hiteverypitch to RF
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
Are they trying too hard to hit home runs? It seems to me that there are a lot of pop ups and pop flies...just an impression.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
6,918
Salem, NH
I'm not sure how to research monthly statistics before 2000 (that's as far back as ESPN allows) but Moreland's .384 OPS for the month of July is the worst monthly OPS for a 1st Baseman since 2000 - and probably much longer than that. For a 1st basemen, months like this -almost literally - never happen.
Tony Clark - Sept. 2002
.120/.267/.120/.387

Mitch Moreland - July 2017
.129/.241/.143/.384

The good news here is that in Clark's next month, April 2003, he posted a .935 OPS.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
Ok, question:

Did DDom miss out on JD Martinez? He had to know he was available and seems to have been the best bat anyone got hold of so far.
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
That's the easy narrative but he wasn't driving the ball in April and may, either. He lunges at everything and was slapping and bapipping all over the place. The only pitches he'd hit hard were at n off the plate where he could square up despite clearing out his hips early.

The best way to fix this. And mookie. And Hanley. Is to force each of them to stay close and hiteverypitch to RF
XB has a different approach in the warmer weather than cold weather


His EV was up in June . I dont have the July average but his percentage of balls hit 95 mph+ was 28% before he got HBP. That dropped to 22% from 7/8-7/26 which is pretty awful. Only 8% of players with 150+ BBE have a lower number. Not that 28% is good. It was 32% in June up from 22% in April. So basically his hand has sent him back to April, at least until KC came to town

But XB power is disappointing. Not a lot of EV so increasing his launch angle wont help much. As it is he has the shortest avg distance on BBE except for 7 other players named Dee Gordon, Revere, Iglesias, Aoki, Nunez, Desmond, Torreyes.

I wonder if some of these guys are slacking off on their lifting. Maybe Papi had these guys pumping and they are slacking off w/o a leader to push them. God help us what the offense would look like w/o the juiced ball
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,049
Florida
Ok, question:

Did DDom miss out on JD Martinez? He had to know he was available and seems to have been the best bat anyone got hold of so far.
Not really imo, unless you are buying in to a notion that DD ever saw Hanley as a returning full time option at first.

Might make for an interesting centerpiece of a blow it up and re-tool the lineup strategy this off-season though. Assuming he isn't set up to see too stupid money...which he might be.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,632
Springfield, VA
The danger is that the young guys are what they are. Their "slumps" have been going on since mid-May. Did we get too excited about them?
I don't think so. Their preseason projections were fairly good, but none of them are hitting up to expectations:

Betts: 108 RC+ today vs preseason Steamer 130 RC+ (or ZIPS 120 RC+)
Bradley: 103 vs 109 (or 101)
Bogaerts: 95 vs 108 (or 100)
Benintendi: 94 vs 106 (or 100)

And many of the vets are in the same place:
HanRam: 104 vs 123 (or 112)
Holt: 27 vs 83 (or 87) in SSS
CYoung: 89 vs 105 (or 92)
Pablo: 59 vs 97 (or 81)

Only Pedroia is meeting expecations right now at 109, vs 108 (or 103)

That's telling me it's not something with us overrating the kids -- it's something systemic with the entire team.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,100
I don't think so. Their preseason projections were fairly good, but none of them are hitting up to expectations:

Betts: 108 RC+ today vs preseason Steamer 130 RC+ (or ZIPS 120 RC+)
Bradley: 103 vs 109 (or 101)
Bogaerts: 95 vs 108 (or 100)
Benintendi: 94 vs 106 (or 100)

And many of the vets are in the same place:
HanRam: 104 vs 123 (or 112)
Holt: 27 vs 83 (or 87) in SSS
CYoung: 89 vs 105 (or 92)
Pablo: 59 vs 97 (or 81)

Only Pedroia is meeting expecations right now at 109, vs 108 (or 103)

That's telling me it's not something with us overrating the kids -- it's something systemic with the entire team.
It's a fluke. I mean, what factor could be impacting the entire team? Chili Davis was the hitting coach last year too, and the year before. Most of the guys are within range of their projections, it's just a case of widespread mild under-performance. Unless there are injuries, I'd bet on most of them over-performing their current numbers from here on out.
 

CurtieLeskanic

New Member
Apr 28, 2014
47
It's a fluke. I mean, what factor could be impacting the entire team? Chili Davis was the hitting coach last year too, and the year before. Most of the guys are within range of their projections, it's just a case of widespread mild under-performance. Unless there are injuries, I'd bet on most of them over-performing their current numbers from here on out.
What a even-handed and rational take. I tend to agree with it. I don't think there are any bats left on the market that can drastically improve our lineup (JD Martinez) or marginally improve it (Duda). I make non-stop calls to the Mets about Addison Reed and make sure we're on him till the end. Hopefully we close in on him. Get Reed for the 8th so something like yesterday only happens once or twice for the rest of the year. Beyond that, bet on talent exceeding past performance.

Reed has some disconcerting peripheral stats this year but would be an improvement over our current 8th inning situation
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,421
I suspect that Betts is in the midst of some mechanical problems that he will sort out eventually. I also think that Bradley is a streaky hitter and that his projection baked in another hot streak that he has not yet had (and may not necessarily have between now and October). And as for Benintendi, I just think that projection was a little too rosy based on the history of hitters struggling to adapt to the adjustments pitchers make to early success (see Michael Conforto). He'll be fine; I just think 106 RC+ was aggressive for this year.

Bogaerts, I will say, I am a bit worried about. He seems like he's becoming a different player than the one he was on track to be -- still vulnerable to those sliders down and away, but even when he gets the fastball in, he's not really turning on it. A Bogaerts who hits .300 with gap power is still a valuable player, but even adjusting for his hand injury, I'm not sure I see the same guy I used to. But who knows.

Look, it could very well be that all these under-performances are unrelated and coincidental strokes of bad luck or negative variation from the mean. The problem, turning back to the thread topic, is that the way they built this team, there's no flexibility to adjust for such luck or variation. Very limited room in the budget. Very limited minor league depth to trade or call on for reinforcements. Very limited positional flexibility (thanks to Hanley being effectively DH-limited). The bet was that the core of this team was good enough that, if you cash in your financial and prospect chips for two frontline starters and an elite closer, you basically won't need anything else to compete for a World Series. That bet fails if the core is, in fact, not that good, but it also fails if the core is that good but just happens to fall short of expectations in a one-year sample.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,420
Norfolk
Isn't the lack of offense in relation to projections even more damning when you take league wide performance into account?
That has to factor into the overly negative perception, when Home Runs have skyrocketed and overall runs are higher than they've been in a decade, within that context it seems even worse.
It's not a case where numbers are supressed around the league, over-performing is the norm, which makes it seem all the more worse when you look at the Sox numbers...especially when you click consider, unlike the rest of the AL, the Sox batters don't have to face the Sox pitching staff, which is one of the best in the league.

As for the trade deadline. I don't really see a solution that's going to magically fix this, so I won't be devastated if they play it safe.
Hopefully some of the more optimistic posters are right and things due to turn around, I'm not expecting it, but realistically, as long as you make the playoffs...If you have an ace starter and reliever with good pitching around them (which I do think this team does) you really only need to get hit for a month to win a title. That scenario isn't out of the realm of possibility (or at least that's what I've been telling myself this past week).
 

boca

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
509
"

Joel Sherman‏Verified account @Joelsherman1 3m3 minutes ago
More
Hearing #Redsox are moving closer to getting Addison Reed from #Mets. Deal not done yet, but getting there.
 

boca

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
509

Heard that Groome and Mata are NOT involved in this deal with the Mets for Reed.
 

boca

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
509
Anyone think they'll swing a trade for a bat? It's been very quiet on that front and it's a big need.