The issue is that even beyond this obvious small sample of 2024, a career line of 279/335/440 isn't good for a guy who offers nothing outside his bat.
How do you solve a problem like Yoshida?
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And that's fair, but that career line is also exactly one year where he was adjusting to a new league and his plate discipline cratered after the longest season of his life. If that OBP had been around .350-.360 last year, I think it's a different conversation altogether. I think it's worth seeing if that guy is in there, and I think he probably is. Not that they have a choice.
Yoshida doesn’t strike out a ton. But that’s really his only above average skill.
this isn’t a super appealing profile. He saw a lot more breaking balls as last season progressed, possible that was a factor in his decline, too?
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799
this isn’t a super appealing profile. He saw a lot more breaking balls as last season progressed, possible that was a factor in his decline, too?
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799
It is WAAAAYYY to early to be taking anything from Savant numbers. He could have a couple hot games with 4 barrels and these would change drastically.
It's April 11th. I just don't think much can be made of these things yet.
The 2023 numbers show the same thing though -- great contact, little else.
I'm not advocating for benching him. But I'm concerned.
Even if you think his numbers for 2023 are predictive, his .783 OPS was good for #26 in the AL, between Vlad Guerrero and Josh Jung.
I assume if either of those guys were our DH, you'd feel better?
That's a great context to put it in. Sometimes I think we might have been spoiled by the DHs we've gotten to watch over the last 20-25 years and expect that DH production has to be Ortiz or JD Martinez levels to be worthwhile. A repeat of 2023's overall production for Yoshida would not be the end of the world.
Point taken, but Vlad's 264/345/444 was an OPS+ of 117, Yoshida was 284/338/445 for 109, so with park effects the distance between the two is maybe bigger than it looks from the raw slash lines.
Jung was not a better hitter last year (315 OBP) but he is not a DH.
The problem isn't having a 107 OPS+ guy at DH, it's paying him 18.5 mil for this and the next three years. Tommy Pham had an OPS+ of 111 last year and is unemployed.
Fair points.
Just to be clear, I don't disagree that Yoshida is a one-dimensional player at this point. (Or maybe 1.5 if he can occasionally spell the OF.)
I also don't disagree that he would be drastically overpaid for a 107 OPS+ output as a baseline. (No crying for millionaires, but if the resources have a limit, I prefer to see them maximized.)
I do think that the case for his upside is pretty obvious though: he's a proven bat-to-ball guy (Japan and here). Assuming his 2023 August trail-off was due to fatigue/headaches last year, his OPS baseline is somewhere between .800 and .825. (And that includes his April cold-start, which lasted until the 20th or so.)
As to this year? Like you, I'm concerned. But I also think it's too early to draw any conclusions.
Yeah, I think we're mostly on the same page. Maybe I'm a little less quick to dismiss the fade last year. But regardless of the contract, he's on the team and the best play now is to keep on giving him AB.
You know, I don't think anyone in this thread has linked to this very good analysis from last year. https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/9/7/23862858/masataka-yoshida-will-be-fine-i-think-red-sox-analysis
The takeaway is that he started chasing breaking balls outside the zone in August. Which the author reasonably attributes to exhaustion/lack of focus.
It also points out he's hitting a greater % of ball harder. My own take on that is it sound similar to the Sox standard hitting philosophy. Less contact is OK if the ball is hit harder when it is hit. . .because good things happen. (One of the reasons why I have a concern about the coaching, although this could also be a fatigue byproduct.)
Then, he hit well in ST. .823 OPS, 1:1 K/BB, some power. Which I take as the "physical swing" still being there.
So what's going on now? (SSS!)
Per Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
It looks like the pitch mix to him is broadly the same. He's getting good results on off-speed stuff, but not producing against FBs. He's also not using the opposite field as much as he did last year. He's swinging less at the first pitch.
But here's the weird thing. If you sort the chart by month, you can compare his good months in 2023 with what he's doing now. His chase% overall is much lower. There are no outliers by pitch type - it's lower across the board. So how about swing/miss? That's lower too. Chase/miss? Breaking balls are a bit higher. In zone swing/miss? Ah! Everything is fine except fastballs.
I wish we had his data from Japan.
While there's some concern for any player "struggling" at any stretch that's more than a few games... I just can't get myself worked up over any struggles of less than a month for any player... even ones with other prior issues or lack of a big enough sample at the ML level (Rafaela). If the struggles continue into May I'll join the chorus of the Worriers but there's no reason at all other than for something to chat about (which is fine).
Interesting. This morning I was considering what the fan base would think if things go downhill and we trade Devers at the trade deadline.
We could probably get decent prospects for him if his bat heats up.
And his defense is just woof-worthy.
But I thought it was a little too early to start said thread.
The thing about the Yoshida signing, even more than really overpaying for a mediocre player, is paying for a mediocre half dimensional player. We'll give his bat a 1/2.
How they evaluated his defense in Japan is alarming. The analytics-driven Bloom brain trust overpaying for a full-time DH that had zero track record in the States is a pretty fitting co-headline deal to pair with Story.
Yoshida's plate appearances make me not want to be around anymore like my good friend Carmine Laguzio.
How they evaluated his defense in Japan is alarming. The analytics-driven Bloom brain trust overpaying for a full-time DH that had zero track record in the States is a pretty fitting co-headline deal to pair with Story.
Yoshida's plate appearances make me not want to be around anymore like my good friend Carmine Laguzio.
There have been a number of scouting failures to go along with the successes. But it's not like Bloom hired these guys. They pre-dated him, and were interested in Yoshida prior to Bloom being hired.
And it's not like they were let go with Bloom. You realize they're still here?
Of course I do. I'm saying that from the Bloom era,which is not an insignificant amount of time, the biggest signings are failures. Unabashed.
I'm going to let you know that your tone sucks. But you already know that. It's like you thing man. Keep on RRing, RR. Condescension suites you.
I'm going to let you know that your tone sucks. But you already know that. It's like you thing man. Keep on RRing, RR. Condescension suites you.
So it is not the GM's fault for signing someone because the scouts were not his, so he has no control when they recommend someone? You keep saying that he drafted well, did he use different scouts for that? Was it his scouts with all the draft picks and the evil other scouts recommended all the bad players?
It wasn't condescending. Some people really might think there was a Bloom "brain trust" of guys that he brought in and relied on to make screwball decisions. But the guys who scouted and evaluated Yoshida pre-dated Bloom in the org and are still here after his departure.
Bloom is ultimately responsible for pulling the trigger on Yoshida and others, and you're free to point that out as many times as it takes to make you happy.
But if you want to be rigorous in your critique of the org. and what actually happened, why reinforce the impression it was some kind of "lone gun" problem that has since been cleaned up?
Does that not help perpetuate the bad signings that are (rightly) causing you annoyance?
Getting back to Yoshida himself for a moment, last night was his first game in the field all season. IIRC there was talk in spring training about getting him steady action in LF this year but it took until game 13 to get him out there.
I think that talk was potentially b/c Breslow and Cora wanted to let Yoshida know in person and not via the media. Also was the potential of resigning Turner or another DH bat at that point, at least theoretically. But it seems like he will only be out there in emergencies like last night.
I remember this too; was it before or after Rafaella emerged and won a spot on the team? Because one that happened, there was an understandable desire to play him regularly. That, coupled with the hot start of O'Neil (and Duran) have made OF innings tough to come by for Yoshida and also Abreu.
It also took a particular circumstance and the absence of some personnel (Devers specifically) to push him out there. I imagine his lack of playing time in the field is a product of the personnel they've been carrying, which is a bit different than what was expected in the early part of spring training. Who is he replacing in the outfield on a regular basis? And when he does, who DHs? Other than maybe Devers (which is moot if he can't hit at all), there's no one else who would be better suited to DH with Yoshida in the field than vice versa.
Exactly. If later on the OF gets tired/rundown, or Cora wants to DH Devers/Casas, it makes sense to put Yoshida into LF for select games. You keep his bat and rest/DH guys elsewhere. But if the DH bat isn't an upgrade over Yoshida's, there's very little reason to put him in the field this early in the season.
He's clearly the worst outfielder of the bunch, and with Story going down and the SS defense looking shaky for the time being, I think there's plenty of reason to keep him at DH. The best defensive alignment if Rafaela is in centerfield does not have Yoshida in left field, and even if you have Rafaela at SS, putting Abreu in right or left field is probably still their best defensive alignment.
I think Yoshida will get going. Still a lot of bad grounders but he's also hit a couple of balls hard the last couple of nights. He seems to be able to hit the ball on a line to right field and center right now but can't pull anything without rolling it over. Some signs he's picking things up, anyways.
I think Yoshida will get going. Still a lot of bad grounders but he's also hit a couple of balls hard the last couple of nights. He seems to be able to hit the ball on a line to right field and center right now but can't pull anything without rolling it over. Some signs he's picking things up, anyways.
Yeah, my Red Sox stats tweet post noted that he will probably be fine with the bat.
My post about OF playing time was more of a surprise note than anything else. For all intents and purposes he is going to be a Papi-like DH who never sees the field at all.
My post about OF playing time was more of a surprise note than anything else. For all intents and purposes he is going to be a Papi-like DH who never sees the field at all.
His swing mechanics look all sorts of messed up almost as if he feels like he needs to get his swing going early to compensate for something so he ends up on his front foot pulling ground balls to the right. Maybe it's physical who knows, but the dude needs to start trying to pepper the Monster.
Last night was a great example of how having a full time DH with no fielding versatility hurts. If it's Turner or JD Davis with that roster spot, they can play 3B, Reyes can play SS, Hamilton never has to see the field, and Devers has the option to DH for a little while if it helps his shoulder.
You live with it when it's Papi or JDM.
You live with it when it's Papi or JDM.
Pablo has been terrible at short, I'd rather see Hamilton there. (also Turner has been terrible at 3B for years now)
The lack of flexibility came with two players who are injured but not on the IL - Devers and Romy. That leaves a bench of 2. Cora brought in CR in the 8th and played him at 2B over Valdez. Wong was left as a RH PH who could fill in at 2B in an emergency, which he did. Yoshida could move from DH to LF, which he did.
Also Turner was not good at 3B last year. This year at 3B he's got minimal range and 2 errors in 19 innings.
By comparison, Hamilton, for all his flaws, has 1 error in 27 innings.
Devers' shoulder apparently causes him pain when he swings, so he's not going to DH his way back to health.
As for the fielding versatility, what you're arguing isn't really versatility so much as what position your DH can play. Yoshida has as much defensive versatility as Turner or Davis, he just plays a different position (and before you argue the other guys can 1B and 3B, Masa covers all three OF positions by virtue of the flexibility of the rest of the outfielders).
The bigger problem last night was having two of the four guys on the bench be entirely unavailable (Devers and Gonzalez). If even one of them is able to play, you're not forced to play Wong at 2B for a stretch nor do you have to use your DH defensively for the second time in a week. The scariest part of those late switches to me wasn't the defense, it was potentially being forced to have a pitcher hit if the game had gone beyond the 10th inning.
But the team already has a backup OF of some quality, and another one soon to come off the IR (or whatever it's called now). A DH-type whose secondary position was 1B/3B would be a much a better fit.
And of course the bigger issue last night was the two guys out, nothing anyone can do about that. But not having a guy who can capably fill in at the corners made it worse. It's the second time that's hurt them this year, the first being when they had to play Dalbec.
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Yoshida:
- First 11 games: 8-36 (.222), 0 hr, 3 rbi
- Last 5 games: 6-19 (.316), 1 hr, 6 rbi
Both very small sample sizes, but it's nice to see him hitting again.
- First 11 games: 8-36 (.222), 0 hr, 3 rbi
- Last 5 games: 6-19 (.316), 1 hr, 6 rbi
Both very small sample sizes, but it's nice to see him hitting again.
There have also been noticeably fewer pulled ground balls over the last few games. If I'm reading these game logs right, he hit just one ground ball for the home series against Anaheim, off Fulmer yesterday.
It's worth remembering that jet lag/travel is probably the biggest difference for a position player coming to MLB from NPB to adapt to in the move to MLB. Starting on the West Coast may have been setting him up for a challenging start. I know they did a layover in Dallas, but Florida to Seattle is quite a haul.
Didn’t he do the same thing at the beginning of last year? It just may be how Masa adjusts.
He’s still a DH on a team that is fielding a 3rd baseman that should be a DH. Hopefully he hits and they can trade him.
Is it still possible to DFA him, and have the following possibilities?
1) no one claims him, and we outright him to AAA - off the 40 man, and his salary no longer counts (like Rusney)
2) someone claims him, and we try to work out a trade and maybe unload some of his salary
3) someone claims him, and we either let them take him (we'd be on the hook for his salary), or we can pull him back (and have to keep him)
Pretty sure those were the rules years ago. Not sure if they still are.
1) no one claims him, and we outright him to AAA - off the 40 man, and his salary no longer counts (like Rusney)
2) someone claims him, and we try to work out a trade and maybe unload some of his salary
3) someone claims him, and we either let them take him (we'd be on the hook for his salary), or we can pull him back (and have to keep him)
Pretty sure those were the rules years ago. Not sure if they still are.
I think if someone claims him his contract can be transferred to that team without trade compensation (the Angels did that with several players last year, right?), but that isn’t going to happen.
Not that this outcome seems super likely to occur, but I don’t think this incarnation of the ownership group would agree it doesn’t count: tax/shmax, its still millions of dollars out of their pockets and now he needs to be replaced by another major league salary. He’s expensive, sure, but if he’s hitting that’s a sunk cost.
There were two Rusney Rules: one that opened a door and one that locked it and threw away the key.
So they're stuck with him. The move now would be just to see informally see which team was willing to take on the highest % of his money and work a deal there. I'd think that number would be close enough to zero that it's not worth it from the Sox' standpoint. Just gotta hope he figures it out.
HIs start has been bad enough to drag his career OPS+ from 109 to 104.
He’s obviously been bad but there’s no reason to drop him now. He has minimal value, and it’s not like the team has anyone to take his place. I think you have to just keep putting him in the lineup and hoping for the best.
Yea I don't understand what is the goal by dropping him. It is not like he is blocking anyone in AAA from coming up.
His career ops+ is 104. He hit well in Japan. The team stinks so may as well play the guy and see if he can still hit at 104, which would make him useful. If not, what have they really lost?
Yeah, people seem to want that slot for Raffy and I get that, but then what? We gonna trot Dalbec out there every day? As you said, no one is being block by Yoshida being on the roster.