What is Swihart worth?

chawson

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Shall this man be traded? And for whomst?

Multiple reports this morning that the Sox are “flooded with calls” on Blake Swihart. It’s discussable beyond the limits of the Blake Can Rake thread since it collides with potential trade needs (probably an arm), but isn’t appropriate for the off-season thread.

Here’s one take. McAdam wrote another that’s paywalled.

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/7/17089918/red-sox-trade-rumors-blake-swihart

Since his value has ranged wildly over the last few years—from too good to trade for Hamels to virtually worthless—I’m curious to know what this board thinks would be a reasonable and desirable return. Similarly fizzled top prospect? Change-of-scenery guy? Moderately expensive #3 starter on a tanking team?

It's possible of course to keep him, but he's mightily blocked.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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I'm guessing not that much yet, hence the reported widespread interest. Teams want to bet on him before the price gets too high.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Always been a fan of this guy. Trading him right now would be a big mistake. Still a ton of potential here. Bring him north and trade Leon if you can.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If they trade him, ideally they get back a catcher with minor league options who can competently fill in should Leon or Vazquez get hurt. They are woefully undermanned at that spot on the 40-man roster.

Edit: which is why they should do everything they can to fit him on the roster in the meantime.
 

chawson

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I'm guessing not that much yet, hence the reported widespread interest. Teams want to bet on him before the price gets too high.
Yes, but unless something changes, he's also probably not going to get the playing time he's getting now in the regular season. Not over Nunez or Benintendi, and even tandem catcher might be too small a role.

Here's one gauge. Is he worth more or less than Joakim Soria?
 

JimD

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McAdam notes that the Sox only seem inclined to trade him for an elite prospect to replenish the farm system. I wouldn't be surprised if potential suitors are willing to call Dombrowski's bluff and see if the price for Swihart goes down in a roster crunch.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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A desirable return would be a quality, cost-controlled middle of the rotation starter. That backend of the rotation worries me.
The frontend of the catching situation worries me. And the backend, too.

Swihart provides a tremendous amount of depth at the position where the Red Sox are weakest organizationally, and he is under club control for 2 additional years beyond Vazquez and Leon. Oscar Hernandez has never hit away from the California League. Jake Romanski is on a 100-game suspension for amphetamine use. Dan Butler is Dan Butler.

He is worth far, far more than Joakim Soria.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Always been a fan of this guy. Trading him right now would be a big mistake. Still a ton of potential here. Bring him north and trade Leon if you can.
The team simply doesn't know if Swihart's ankle can hold up to the strain of regular catching so it's too early to trade Leon away. If Swihart stays with Boston (and I hope he does) it'll be as a utility fielder who serves as a 3rd/emergency catcher in the short term.
 

grimshaw

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He's pretty much a scouting leap of faith because of a lack of clarity from his minor league numbers due to injury. It's nice that he is driving the ball in spring training and appears healthy, but he isn't exactly facing elite pitchers unleashing full repertoires.

I would think he is worth the most to a team with an enormously crappy hitting back up catcher or a rebuilding team who is looking to hand over the keys. His versatility is obviously helpful but teams aren't going to line up to have him start in left or 1b. He also isn't that super utility guy yet until he plays up the middle, but the willingness is there.

The issue in terms of his return value is that if it is a rebuilding team acquiring him, they aren't giving up long term assets, but rentals. Rentals are expensive salary wise and the Red Sox don't have money. They also don't have 25 man roster needs.

And there is no chance he is worth a cost controlled starter. IMO, there is just no reason for them to move him at this point.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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The team simply doesn't know if Swihart's ankle can hold up to the strain of regular catching so it's too early to trade Leon away. If Swihart stays with Boston (and I hope he does) it'll be as a utility fielder who serves as a 3rd/emergency catcher in the short term.
Swihart doesn't need to catch every day in 2018 or 2019 to add more value to the Red Sox than pretty much any player or prospect a rival team would be willing to trade to acquire him.

He's not a free agent until after 2021, and because of his circumstances he'll be incredibly cheap throughout that time despite being a super-2. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Swihart could continue strengthening his ankle in order to become a 90-100 GS catcher by mid-2019.

Trading him now would be a terrible mistake.
 

chawson

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He is worth far, far more than Joakim Soria.
Ok. In the very plottable landscape of mostly rebuilding teams without long-term catchers that we’d be trading with, where do you value him then? Luis Castillo? Jameson Taillon? Nick Castellanos? Gio Gonzalez? Danny Duffy?
 

E5 Yaz

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Ok. In the very plottable landscape of mostly rebuilding teams without long-term catchers that we’d be trading with, where do you value him then? Luis Castillo? Jameson Taillon? Nick Castellanos? Gio Gonzalez?
Who are you adding to Swihart to get any of those players?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Swihart doesn't need to catch every day in 2018 or 2019 to add more value to the Red Sox than pretty much any player or prospect a rival team would be willing to trade to acquire him.

He's not a free agent until after 2021, and because of his circumstances he'll be incredibly cheap throughout that time despite being a super-2. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Swihart could continue strengthening his ankle in order to become a 90-100 GS catcher by mid-2019.

Trading him now would be a terrible mistake.
I'm not advocating trading Swihart. I'm arguing against trading Leon.
 

chawson

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Who are you adding to Swihart to get any of those players?
Right, maybe that’s the spread. Something between two years of a solid aging closer and a warty, cost-controlled starter with upside, or a prospect. But the trading pool is a very small amount of teams.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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Ok. In the very plottable landscape of mostly rebuilding teams without long-term catchers that we’d be trading with, where do you value him then? Luis Castillo? Jameson Taillon? Nick Castellanos? Gio Gonzalez?
Given the Red Sox multi-year payroll obligations, catching "prospects" who are still alive, and current roster, there isn't a single reasonable scenario where trading Swihart makes sense. I'm afraid none of the players you named are anywhere near what clubs would actually be offering at this moment in time. Because Swihart is one of the most tempting "buy-low" opportunities in MLB today.

But the Red Sox keeping him as a utility player now allows him to help the MLB club win games by offering Cora a tactical option he wouldn't otherwise have (to PH Moreland or Hanley for Vazquez or Leon without impacting their rest-and-recovery days), to work with the MLB club's staff of trainers and coaches and doctors (which gives his ankle the best chance of strengthening further to where it's not unreasonable to project him able to catch 100 games), and at least the chance to continue accumulating trade value (when it might not be silly to consider a trade able to provide enough short-term benefit to offset the long-term loss).

I'm not advocating trading Swihart. I'm arguing against trading Leon.
Oh no, it's at least four-to-five months too early to dump Leon right now in March. I don't think he will ever get even remotely close to his 2016 mojo back, but it's premature to force the issue. And again, there's no need to make a hasty choice. The 25-man roster can easily absorb some lack of perceived "value" by holding onto Swihart.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Swihart doesn't need to catch every day in 2018 or 2019 to add more value to the Red Sox than pretty much any player or prospect a rival team would be willing to trade to acquire him.

He's not a free agent until after 2021, and because of his circumstances he'll be incredibly cheap throughout that time despite being a super-2. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Swihart could continue strengthening his ankle in order to become a 90-100 GS catcher by mid-2019.

Trading him now would be a terrible mistake.
Unless Swihart plus [insert non-Top 10 prospect] brings back J.T. Realmuto (which I don't envision happening), I agree.
 

chawson

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Given the Red Sox multi-year payroll obligations, catching "prospects" who are still alive, and current roster, there isn't a single reasonable scenario where trading Swihart makes sense. I'm afraid none of the players you named are anywhere near what clubs would actually be offering at this moment in time. Because Swihart is one of the most tempting "buy-low" opportunities in MLB today.

But the Red Sox keeping him as a utility player now allows him to help the MLB club win games by offering Cora a tactical option he wouldn't otherwise have (to PH Moreland or Hanley for Vazquez or Leon without impacting their rest-and-recovery days), to work with the MLB club's staff of trainers and coaches and doctors (which gives his ankle the best chance of strengthening further to where it's not unreasonable to project him able to catch 100 games), and at least the chance to continue accumulating trade value (when it might not be silly to consider a trade able to provide enough short-term benefit to offset the long-term loss).

Oh no, it's at least four-to-five months too early to dump Leon right now in March
This is the dilemma. The counter-argument would be that barring injury, he’ll get maybe 100 PAs on the scenario you describe above, on a team with Nunez/Pedroia, Ramirez/Moreland, Leon/Vazquez, and a full outfield. We’d be in the same position next year, with Swihart older and unable to be sent down, and none of the questions answered.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Unless Swihart plus [insert non-Top 10 prospect] brings back J.T. Realmuto (which I don't envision happening), I agree.
Look, there are no players named as possible options coming back so we don't have a sounding board, but it's pretty clear that Realmuto isn't part of the conversation.

The absolute best you could reasonably hope to bring back at this point in Swihart's recovery, is a C+ prospect who wouldn't need to be added to the 40-man until 2020.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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This is the dilemma. The counter-argument would be that barring injury, he’ll get maybe 100 PAs on the scenario you describe above, on a team with Nunez/Pedroia, Ramirez/Moreland, Leon/Vazquez, and a full outfield. We’d be in the same position next year, with Swihart older and unable to be sent down, and none of the questions answered.
That's the position we would be in next year.

It is not the position the Red Sox would be in, because they would have all the internal medical and trainer reports on how Swihart's ankle has continued to strengthen (or not) as well as all the internal coaching and pitcher reports about how his development as a catcher-in-training is coming along (or not).

This would be the case in a perfect world where injuries don't happen. I am confident that if Swihart stays healthy he will get more than 100 PA this year, because I live in the real world.
 

moondog80

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I'm not advocating trading Swihart. I'm arguing against trading Leon.
I don't want to dump Leon tomorrow, but if they did trade him and then find themselves with a need for another catcher in July, how hard would it be to find his replacement?

The nice thing about keeping Swihart as the 2nd catcher is that it would allow them to have a real 4th OF on the bench. As it stands, if one of the Bs has to come out of a game, they either have to put an non-OF out there or use JD there and lose the DH.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I would think he is worth the most to a team with an enormously crappy hitting back up catcher or a rebuilding team who is looking to hand over the keys. His versatility is obviously helpful but teams aren't going to line up to have him start in left or 1b. He also isn't that super utility guy yet until he plays up the middle, but the willingness is there.
That's us, right? Leon ranked 48th of 58 among catchers with at least 150 PA (arbitrary number) last year with a 67 wRC+. His career number of 77 would've ranked 43rd. He had a fantastic 2016, but I don't think anybody believes we'll see anything close to that again.

Swihart doesn't need to catch every day in 2018 or 2019 to add more value to the Red Sox than pretty much any player or prospect a rival team would be willing to trade to acquire him.

He's not a free agent until after 2021, and because of his circumstances he'll be incredibly cheap throughout that time despite being a super-2. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Swihart could continue strengthening his ankle in order to become a 90-100 GS catcher by mid-2019.

Trading him now would be a terrible mistake.
I agree with this. Leon is adequate as the short end of a C tandem, due to his solid defense, but Swihart is almost certainly an upgrade over him - even right now. If he can't catch the 50+ games we'd need in a split with Vazquez in 2018, then I think the goal should be to build him up to the point where that is the plan going into 2019.
 

wnyghost

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If the Sox think he can catch they would be nuts to trade him. His versatility, athleticism and potential bat are so valuable.

It's Spring Training. Panda looked good in Spring Training.

Sell as high as possible.
 

Maximus

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Trading Blake would be a terrible mistake. The kid can rake and should be on the 25 man.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don't want to dump Leon tomorrow, but if they did trade him and then find themselves with a need for another catcher in July, how hard would it be to find his replacement?

The nice thing about keeping Swihart as the 2nd catcher is that it would allow them to have a real 4th OF on the bench. As it stands, if one of the Bs has to come out of a game, they either have to put an non-OF out there or use JD there and lose the DH.
At least one of Swihart or Holt will be on the roster come April. Swihart's experience is obviously limited, but he is competent enough to finish a game in the outfield if need be. Holt has been the strong half of a platoon in LF when he's healthy, so he also should be adequate enough to finish a game in the outfield if necessary. A "real 4th OF" isn't a necessity with the roster pieces the Red Sox have currently, as evidenced by the fact that they've already traded away the only one they had on the 40-man this spring.
 

chawson

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That's the position we would be in next year.

It is not the position the Red Sox would be in, because they would have all the internal medical and trainer reports on how Swihart's ankle has continued to strengthen (or not) as well as all the internal coaching and pitcher reports about how his development as a catcher-in-training is coming along (or not).

This would be the case in a perfect world where injuries don't happen. I am confident that if Swihart stays healthy he will get more than 100 PA this year, because I live in the real world.
While nicely smarmy, I’m not sure these “real-world” proclamations are as authoritative as you think.

If Vazquez and Leon are both on the team, he’s not getting enough PAs to determine anything. You’re basically counting on him being the starting left fielder for any long stretch of time if any outfielder goes down—which I suppose is possible, but I’d think they’d go with a better defensive player or maybe Barfield—and we have Nunez (and Lin, Marrero, Hernandez, and maybe Holt) for everything else.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The wild card in this conversation is where the Sox think Swihart is (or can be) as a defensive catcher. He got decent reviews in the minors, but the Sox reportedly viewed his 2015 MLB stint as a defensive fiasco. But that was when Farrell was in charge. As a former pitcher and pitching coach, he may have had a higher bar for adequate C defense than Cora will.

If the Sox see him as someone who will eventually be a major part of the catching mix, then they should absolutely hang onto him. If they see him as a corner utilityman who can slot in at C a couple of times a month, then dealing him might make sense, since he could have more value to some other team that's willing to gamble that they're wrong.
 

MikeM

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Here's one gauge. Is he worth more or less than Joakim Soria?
More to us atm, but I think they both have their own individual and selective type of value appeal. Soria isn't really a great fit for us to begin with given the salary/contract aspects involved.

Whether or not DD would ultimately trade Swihart for Thornburg v2 (especially if they happened to be a LHP) if the current opportunity arose, while taking into account our upcoming FA situation and the surrounding question mark on v1, is probably a much different debate though.
 

grimshaw

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That's us, right? Leon ranked 48th of 58 among catchers with at least 150 PA (arbitrary number) last year with a 67 wRC+. His career number of 77 would've ranked 43rd. He had a fantastic 2016, but I don't think anybody believes we'll see anything close to that again.
Pretty much, yes.

The wild card in this conversation is where the Sox think Swihart is (or can be) as a defensive catcher. He got decent reviews in the minors, but the Sox reportedly viewed his 2015 MLB stint as a defensive fiasco. But that was when Farrell was in charge. As a former pitcher and pitching coach, he may have had a higher bar for adequate C defense than Cora will.
Or what other teams think about his defense for that matter. With teams pooping offense, maybe they need more than that out of their starting catcher. It wasn't just Farrell who appeared tepid on Swihart - DD basically admitted he wasn't sure where Swihart belonged in the field over a year ago. And that was with Vazquez on the roster when he wasn't playing very well.
 

joe dokes

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Pretty much, yes.

Or what other teams think about his defense for that matter. With teams pooping offense, maybe they need more than that out of their starting catcher. It wasn't just Farrell who appeared tepid on Swihart - DD basically admitted he wasn't sure where Swihart belonged in the field over a year ago. And that was with Vazquez on the roster when he wasn't playing very well.
Cora just got off a season in which Evan Gattis caught 50 games. I think he has an idea of what he can deal with defensively.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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If Vazquez and Leon are both on the team, he’s not getting enough PAs to determine anything. You’re basically counting on him being the starting left fielder for any long stretch of time if any outfielder goes down—which I suppose is possible, but I’d think they’d go with a better defensive player or maybe Barfield—and we have Nunez (and Lin, Marrero, Hernandez, and maybe Holt) for everything else.
My expectation has almost nothing to do with LF at all. Rather, I expect that Leon will be generally unable to hit his way out of a paper bag and will be seen as a liability after May, that Pedroia will not amass more than about 250-300 PA due to his knee injury, that 2-3 starting players will need multiple days off in a row or time on the DL, and that the Sox DFA Holt to save money.

For those reasons, I expect Swihart to get about 150-175 PA, or more.
 

chawson

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My expectation has almost nothing to do with LF at all. Rather, I expect that Leon will be generally unable to hit his way out of a paper bag and will be seen as a liability after May, that Pedroia will not amass more than about 250-300 PA due to his knee injury, that 2-3 starting players will need multiple days off in a row or time on the DL, and that the Sox DFA Holt to save money.

For those reasons, I expect Swihart to get about 150-175 PA, or more.
I could see maybe 150. Think Pedroia’a PAs will first go to Nunez, but who knows. We all know Holt is gone, but Lin looks like an asset, and can be shuttled.

If Leon’s traded, then Swihart’s got about 350 PAs to work with, which is enough to prove something. 150 is not, and I think it’s worth investigating a trade for someone who slots better into the team rather than further wasting Blake’s development time and team control.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I could see maybe 150. Think Pedroia’a PAs will first go to Nunez, but who knows. We all know Holt is gone, but Lin looks like an asset, and can be shuttled.

If Leon’s traded, then Swihart’s got about 350 PAs to work with, which is enough to prove something. 150 is not, and I think it’s worth investigating a trade for someone who slots better into the team rather than further wasting Blake’s development time and team control.
The facts you're not accepting are a) that Swihart doesn't need to prove anything with the stick, and b) no other team is going to trade any player "who slots better into the team" for Swihart at this point in his recovery.

Right now, if teams are looking to acquire Blake Swihart, it'd be for their version of Heath Hembree or Bryce Brentz. Because every team has enough of those guys. What they don't all have is an athletic, switch-hitting catcher with an MLB-ready bat.
 

grimshaw

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The facts you're not accepting are a) that Swihart doesn't need to prove anything with the stick, and b) no other team is going to trade any player "who slots better into the team" for Swihart at this point in his recovery.

Right now, if teams are looking to acquire Blake Swihart, it'd be for their version of Heath Hembree or Bryce Brentz. Because every team has enough of those guys. What they don't all have is an athletic, switch-hitting catcher with an MLB-ready bat.
Swihart does have to prove it with the stick, though. And behind the plate. He hasn't shown nearly enough at either level where a team is going to know what they have. All he's shown are flashes both while healthy and not.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Swihart does have to prove it with the stick, though. And behind the plate. He hasn't shown nearly enough at either level where a team is going to know what they have. All he's shown are flashes both while healthy and not.
How much he has to prove with the stick and how much he has to prove behind the plate are closely connected questions. He has a career wRC+ of 93. The wRC+ of all catchers over that stretch is about 87. So he's already shown himself, in limited duty at ages 23-25, to be an above-average hitting catcher. But in order for that to be a point in his favor, he has to be a catcher. If he's not, then yeah, he's got something to prove as a hitter.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Swihart does have to prove it with the stick, though. And behind the plate. He hasn't shown nearly enough at either level where a team is going to know what they have. All he's shown are flashes both while healthy and not.
Swihart showed as a rookie in 2015 that he could hit at least least as well as a MLB-average catcher. The average catcher's batting line in 2015 was .240/.303/.379. Swihart hit .279/.319/.392 in his 23-year old season.

That 90 OPS+ is enough, so long as he retains the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. That's the "buy-low" opportunity. Because if his ankle gets strong enough through strength-building in 2018, whoever controls him gets three additional years.

[or, what SH just said!]
 

chawson

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Swihart showed as a rookie in 2015 that he could hit at least least as well as a MLB-average catcher. The average catcher's batting line in 2015 was .240/.303/.379. Swihart hit .279/.319/.392 in his 23-year old season.

That 90 OPS+ is enough, so long as he retains the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. That's the "buy-low" opportunity. Because if his ankle gets strong enough through strength-building in 2018, whoever controls him gets three additional years.

[or, what SH just said!]
You’re moving the goalposts like crazy here.

Swihart had an alright 93 wRC+ in 2015, fine for a 23-year-old. Travis D’Arnaud put up a 130 wRC+ that year too. Derek Norris a 98 wRC+. Yasmani Grandal had a 116. Schwarber a 131. All young(ish) catchers who’ve since taken major steps back.

Swihart hit .279/.319/.392 over 309 MLB PAs in 2015. He also also hit .187/.261/.284 over 250 PAs in Pawtucket and rookie league ball in 2017. Of course there are still questions about his bat.
 
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Rasputin

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Always been a fan of this guy. Trading him right now would be a big mistake. Still a ton of potential here. Bring him north and trade Leon if you can.
This is where I am. A backup catcher who can play another position is a good thing and would go a long way towards making up for giving a bench spot to someone who can't really play anything but first.

Coming north with a bench of Swihart, Leon, Moreland, and Lin gives you depth at every position. When Pedroia comes back, you reassess the bench and either send Lin down or trade Swihart or Leon.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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chawson, I don't think you're using the phrase "moving the goalposts like crazy" properly. I do commend you on moving the goalposts like crazy properly, though.

Let's flip this. If you think there are so many questions remaining about Swihart's bat, as well as the ones that certainly do exist about his ability to field his position effectively, then why do you state this:

I think it’s worth investigating a trade for someone who slots better into the team rather than further wasting Blake’s development time and team control.
Why is it a waste when it's obvious how the Red Sox could use him? Or why you think this:

Eickhoff yes, Manaea no, and Folty maybe.
Why is Eickhoff and his minimum salary and MLB career 107 ERA+ worth only an enigma wrapped in a riddle? Or even this:

It's possible of course to keep him, but he's mightily blocked.
Why does the lone figure of Sandy Leon and his career 77 OPS+ define "mightily blocked" in your opinion?

There have been other people advocating for keeping Swihart, not just me. Other reasons have been given, not just mine. I'll gladly be letting others carry the torch now.