What happened to JBJ's cannon?

[Whiteroom802]

When Jackie made his debut with the Red Sox, his defense and cannon for an arm were his best assets. I think many people felt, as I did (do), that watching him play defense made up for the lagging hit tool. I enjoy seeing runs prevented as much as I do runs created. I couldn't wait to watch him show off his arm, and what an arm it was. This season, however, his throws have appeared to me to be rather weak and usually WAY off line. What is going on? I remember him doing some showing off, throwing the ball from home plate into the stands. That just does not seem like something he would be capable of now, was there an injury?

 

[Byrdbrain]

His throws were quite off line last year as well but I disagree that they are weak.
Within the last week there was a report that the threw a ball over the monster from the right field line( I know I read about it but I can't find a story now) so the arm strength is there his accuracy has just been awful.

 

[Al Zarilla]

His throws were quite off line last year as well but I disagree that they are weak.
Within the last week there was a report that the threw a ball over the monster from the right field line( I know I read about it but I can't find a story now) so the arm strength is there his accuracy has just been awful.

I saw a video of that throw. I think it was from part way up the third base line to over everything in left center at Fenway. I immediately thought WTF, work on 150-300 foot throws for accuracy, not that bullshit.

Edit, might have been first base line. When are we going to have TVs with the equivalent of browser history to be able to go back?

 

[Sampo Gida]

I cant find a link so maybe its my aging brain at work here, but I seem to remember JBJ had some elbow issue in ST of 2016 (he also went on DL in 2013 with elbow inflammation but suffered no apparent ill effects on his return). At the start of ST last year there was a report of him throwing a football 60 yards which worried me at the time.

Never did throw as well after ST last year IMO. I know statcast measures velocity which we could use to analyze this but the data is not available to us peons. Only data I could find thats been reported were from 2015-2016 when he had a bigger gun. Accuracy has taken the biggest hit to my subjective eyes. Still, he has a very good arm by CF standards and racks up the assists even if it does not seem as awesome as it once was. Runners still have to be on guard.

 

[tonyandpals]

His throws were quite off line last year as well but I disagree that they are weak.
Within the last week there was a report that the threw a ball over the monster from the right field line( I know I read about it but I can't find a story now) so the arm strength is there his accuracy has just been awful.

Reminds me of a time back in 2005, I believe. Got in to the game early for BP on the monster, but a quick shower wiped it out. Was just hanging in the front wow. Mike Myers was standing in the RF corner, doing long toss with Dana LeVangie. I'm half watching them and talking to the folks I'm with. All of a sudden we hear a whistle. We start looking around for it...there it is a again. We look to RF and Myers is waving his arms. He points his glove at us, winds up, and lets it fly. One step to my right and I caught it. It was a thing of beauty. The throw of course. The catch was rather routine.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Before the game, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts long-tossed, throwing the ball from RF foul line toward the Monster. JBJ: over everything.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Someone just posted in another thread that he's "in danger of losing his job to Chris Young". Is there anything to this or just observation of poster based on last night's game and JBJ struggling at the dish (and apparently not up to his personal par in the field either).
How long does JBJ flounder before the change is permanent (presumably Young in LF and Benintendi in CF)?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Someone just posted in another thread that he's "in danger of losing his job to Chris Young". Is there anything to this or just observation of poster based on last night's game and JBJ struggling at the dish (and apparently not up to his personal par in the field either).

How long does JBJ flounder before the change is permanent (presumably Young in LF and Benintendi in CF)?

I'd have to think the Sox know that JBJ's swing is a hot mess right now, but I haven't seen any signs of him struggling in the field. That may (or may not) be borne out by fangraphs rating him as having the top defensive WAR on the Sox at 3.4 defense runs saved in just 16 games.

That being my assumption, I think a couple days off to work on his swing is what we'll see, and then back to usual in Milwaukee with a directive to use the opposite field.

Because yeah, 16 games isn't long enough to base a decision like that.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Yeah short term we will likely see Young in there a bit more often but I don't believe JBJ is in any danger of losing his job. He's been shown to be a streaky hitter and you can't get the hot streaks if you sit him during the cold streaks.
His defense has still been excellent even admitting that his throws haven't been what you would like to see.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

...I think a couple days off to work on his swing is what we'll see, and then back to usual in Milwaukee with a directive to use the opposite field.

I can't proclaim to be a hitting expert, but is the suggestion of trying to go more to the opposite field because you think he's getting too pull happy or because it could be a simple mechanism to get him to concentrate on seeing the ball better or something.

Because by the numbers, his main problem this year appears to be that he's making weaker contact...same amount of contact (his walk and K percentages are nearly dead on career numbers) but overall weaker contact. His LD% is down to 11.9% compared to a 17.9% career mark, and his soft contact percentage is up to 23.3% (15.5% career). He's not getting pull happy since his pull percentage is at 39.5% this year compared to 43% career. His BABIP, probably reflective of the low LD% and soft contact, is really low at .214.

Seems like it should be a minor and hopefully easy fix if it isn't health related. He's not exactly flailing at the plate like he was in 2014. It's more he's off by fractions (inches or seconds, take your pick).

 

[dhappy42]

Someone just posted in another thread that he's "in danger of losing his job to Chris Young". Is there anything to this or just observation of poster based on last night's game and JBJ struggling at the dish (and apparently not up to his personal par in the field either).
How long does JBJ flounder before the change is permanent (presumably Young in LF and Benintendi in CF)?

That was me. And I said "full-time job," to Young, meaning I think the Sox will use Young more in a platoon with JBJ. Or should.

The observation is based on JBJ's struggles at the plate so far this season, not just yesterday, and Young's relatively good performance (.783 OPS vs Bradley's .513 OPS.) SSS, but Young has twice as many HRs as Bradley and Bogaerts combined, in 100 fewer plate appearances.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Young was pretty much always going to platoon with JBJ, though some of those Young starts could have come at ABs expense I suppose. Young is now getting more than that as this will be his second start in a row against a righty. As has been stated that would be expected to be a short term thing, you certainly can't sit a guy who hit 2 HRs yesterday.

We know what Young is, he has an 850 vs lefties and has a slugging heavy 700 OPS against righties. Offensively that is in the same ballpark as what JBJ has given you over his career vs righties but obviously JBJ brings that in a more valuable defensive position. This year JBJ has been a mess but he'll get his chances to come out of it, as he should.
You are also correct in your statement about the home runs, though of course 24 hours ago that wouldn't have been true. Also combining X and JBJ for that comparison serves no purpose in this discussion. Young has more ABs this year than JBJ and has one more HR, Young has clearly been the superior hitter overall but let's not get too carried away.

 

[MikeM]

I think we need to pump the brakes some here. Going in to yesterday Young's OPS was .678, and he hasn't held down a full time starting gig since 2011.

Losing some atbats against LHP going forward is one thing, but overall JBJ's job is pretty safe for the foreseeable future on defense alone.

 

[dhappy42]

I think we need to pump the brakes some here. Going in to yesterday Young's OPS was .678, and he hasn't held down a full time starting gig since 2011.

Losing some atbats against LHP going forward is one thing, but overall JBJ's job is pretty safe for the foreseeable future on defense alone.

If this in reference to my post saying Young will/should be seeing more playing time in a platoon against lefties and, occasionally even some righties, until JBJ fixes whatever is broken, read better. I'm not suggesting that Young should become the FT LFer with Beni in CF.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Then you are stating the obvious.
Young was always going to play against lefties, that is why he is here.
In the short term(yesterday and today for sure) he will get some ABs against righties.

 

[dhappy42]

Then you are stating the obvious.
Young was always going to play against lefties, that is why he is here.
In the short term(yesterday and today for sure) he will get some ABs against righties.

Right. It's obvious. I made an obvious comment as a part of a wisecrack in another thread and somehow it was imported here and blown up as if I was calling for Young to replace JBJ as a full-time starter. I'm not. I stated the obvious: that Young should see more ABs until JBJ sorts it out.

The nitpicking noise-to-signal ratio sometimes gets out of control in these threads. I'll stop replying to dumb responses now.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Bradley hasn't been hitting since he came back form that knee injury. You can see he's still wearing that huge knee brace under his uniform. I wouldn't be surprised if the knee injury is hurting his hitting.

 

[MikeM]

If this in reference to my post saying Young will/should be seeing more playing time in a platoon against lefties and, occasionally even some righties, until JBJ fixes whatever is broken, read better. I'm not suggesting that Young should become the FT LFer with Beni in CF.

First off settle down man.

Secondly, I was simply pointing out that you seem to be getting a little carried away lately with those SSS presentations (imo). But on that note JBJ is hitting lefties at a .364/.462/.636 clip so far, and needing a RHH platoon partner hasn't been the problem.

 

[joe dokes]

I suspect the original plan was that most of Young's ab's vs lhp's would be in place of benintendi. It may be that they are in place of jbj.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I suspect the original plan was that most of Young's ab's vs lhp's would be in place of benintendi. It may be that they are in place of jbj.

I imagine the initial plan was Young's ABs would come from spelling a combination of Benintendi, JBJ, and Moreland (with Hanley at 1B and CY at DH).

 

[patoaflac]

I really don´t understand the big love with JBJ. Maybe it´s the knee, or maybe we should consider he had 2 really hot months around this time last year. Since he returned from having his baby he returned to his old and present form (an undisciplined bad hitter, with some strange routes when going back for a ball and yes a lot of speed which makes up on some occasions for bad routing).
Just my two cents

 

[Byrdbrain]

He has slightly above average speed but gets great jumps and generally takes excellent routes so I'm not really sure what you are watching.
His hitting is absolutely an open question as is if his arm can be the weapon everyone thought it would be but his defense isn't in question and it isn't based on speed.

 

[themactavish]

When Jackie made his debut with the Red Sox, his defense and cannon for an arm were his best assets. I think many people felt, as I did (do), that watching him play defense made up for the lagging hit tool. I enjoy seeing runs prevented as much as I do runs created. I couldn't wait to watch him show off his arm, and what an arm it was. This season, however, his throws have appeared to me to be rather weak and usually WAY off line. What is going on? I remember him doing some showing off, throwing the ball from home plate into the stands. That just does not seem like something he would be capable of now, was there an injury?

Obviously, it's the arm that hurls the ball in the end, but strong and accurate throws require the coordination of all the moving parts. If it were all arm, you might naturally expect the biggest guys to have the best arms, but that's not so. I bet if someone were to watch film closely, you'd see that something is slightly out of step, maybe something you'd have to slow down to notice. Rushing an outfield throw is often a big cause for getting out of whack, with the result that you may not get everything behind it or may yank the throw way off line (or both). I've noticed too that some throws where I expected him to nail a runner haven't even been in the neighborhood of getting the guy.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I would also like to remind everyone that much of this seems a matter of eyeballs and perception.

By which I mean, Bradley's arm in 2014 was being compared to Ellsbury, Crisp, and Damon.

Bradley's arm in 2017 is being compared to his own webgems from 2014-16.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I would also like to remind everyone that much of this seems a matter of eyeballs and perception.

By which I mean, Bradley's arm in 2014 was being compared to Ellsbury, Crisp, and Damon.

Bradley's arm in 2017 is being compared to his own webgems from 2014-16.

It was? Boy, I missed that, but I wasn't getting NESN or CSNNE or getting a lot of Sox games. Also, he had 13 assists in 2014. Something wrong here.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Is it really a small sample with JBJ?

The Globe Sox Notes article pointed out that "Bradley has hit .207 in 73 games dating to last Aug. 1."

I'm not pining for Chris Young as a long term solution. At the same time, I'm not doing cartwheels over JF's apparent plan to re-insert JBJ on Tuesday.

 

[Saints Rest]

Obviously, it's the arm that hurls the ball in the end, but strong and accurate throws require the coordination of all the moving parts. If it were all arm, you might naturally expect the biggest guys to have the best arms, but that's not so. I bet if someone were to watch film closely, you'd see that something is slightly out of step, maybe something you'd have to slow down to notice. Rushing an outfield throw is often a big cause for getting out of whack, with the result that you may not get everything behind it or may yank the throw way off line (or both). I've noticed too that some throws where I expected him to nail a runner haven't even been in the neighborhood of getting the guy.

Wouldn't an injured knee be a likely source of this out-of-whackedness?

 

[grimshaw]

By which I mean, Bradley's arm in 2014 was being compared to Ellsbury, Crisp, and Damon.

Bradley's arm in 2017 is being compared to his own webgems from 2014-16.

NM. Poor reading comprehension

 

[SumnerH]

Eh . . no.
I don't believe a single scout or person here ever compared Bradley's arm to those guys.

He doesn't mean scouts were saying he threw like Damon. He means it looked even more amazing because we were comparing it mentally to recent noodle arms in our OF, and now we don't have that contrast because we're comparing it to JBJ himself in recent years.

Like how Conan O'Brien is tall, but looks a lot taller standing next to Tom Cruise than Vince Vaughn.

 

[grimshaw]

He doesn't mean scouts were saying he threw like Damon. He means it looked even more amazing because we were comparing it mentally to recent noodle arms in our OF, and now we don't have that contrast because we're comparing it to JBJ himself in recent years.

Like how Conan O'Brien is tall, but looks a lot taller standing next to Tom Cruise than Vince Vaughn.

My bad. Misunderstood. Carry on.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sorry, but JBJ's arm absolutely was routinely compared to his predecessors' noodles back in 2014. At least around here.

And that matters, because it's also around here that his arm's accuracy is being called into question.

By that I mean when we were in awe that JBJ could make some of those laser throws, the bias was to ignore the ones that were off the mark. We were just happy that finally the Red Sox had someone in CF who wasn't limited to sailing rainbows in to the cutoff man.

That's an issue of eyeball bias. There may well also be an issue of actual reduction in accuracy, too. But, the extent to which it's an objective problem vs. a subjective one is unclear without first correcting for that bias.

But assists aren't a good measure, since other teams just don't run on the Sox OF arms much any more. So the assist totals are going way down as the threat of running into an out has risen.

[edit] thanks, SumnerH. That's exactly what I meant.

 

[MikeM]

Is it really a small sample with JBJ?

The Globe Sox Notes article pointed out that "Bradley has hit .207 in 73 games dating to last Aug. 1."

I'm not pining for Chris Young as a long term solution. At the same time, I'm not doing cartwheels over JF's apparent plan to re-insert JBJ on Tuesday.

I think there is serious question whether he's actually the first half hitter he was in 2016. But we all kinda knew or suspected that going in.

That said Bradley isn't going to end this one putting up the .370 OPS against RHP that he is now.

 

[dbn]

I really don´t understand the big love with JBJ. Maybe it´s the knee, or maybe we should consider he had 2 really hot months around this time last year. Since he returned from having his baby he returned to his old and present form (an undisciplined bad hitter, with some strange routes when going back for a ball and yes a lot of speed which makes up on some occasions for bad routing).
Just my two cents

I have to disagree with the bolded. In fact, I think it's the exact opposite. He's an amazing defender because, primarily, he gets fantastic reads, secondly because he takes great routes. He isn't a speedster. He winds up jogging to a position right under balls that many other OFs would have been diving for.

 

[uncannymanny]

Sorry, but JBJ's arm absolutely was routinely compared to his predecessors' noodles back in 2014. At least around here.

And that matters, because it's also around here that his arm's accuracy is being called into question.

By that I mean when we were in awe that JBJ could make some of those laser throws, the bias was to ignore the ones that were off the mark. We were just happy that finally the Red Sox had someone in CF who wasn't limited to sailing rainbows in to the cutoff man.

That's an issue of eyeball bias. There may well also be an issue of actual reduction in accuracy, too. But, the extent to which it's an objective problem vs. a subjective one is unclear without first correcting for that bias.

But assists aren't a good measure, since other teams just don't run on the Sox OF arms much any more. So the assist totals are going way down as the threat of running into an out has risen.

[edit] thanks, SumnerH. That's exactly what I meant.

Not sure why this was really disputed or misconstrued. The first post was very clear and I thought an unexpected angle for me. It's 100% true that he came up at a time when "arm" in CF was mostly a cruel joke on us. Totally buy that the first year I was wowed by the difference but am now expecting a lot "more," whatever that is (all time greatness?).

This is like, exactly why baseball is so much better/more infuriating than every sport in a nutshell.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

I think the reason the post was misunderstood is because "contrasted" would have been a better word choice than "compared". Comparison generally implies similarity between the items being discussed, although on a technical level it can mean there are differences. But if those differences are stark, contrast is the way to go.

This was an absolutely stupid and tangential post, but I'm OCD about this stuff.

 

[RetractableRoof]

I think the reason the post was misunderstood is because "contrasted" would have been a better word choice than "compared". Comparison generally implies similarity between the items being discussed, although on a technical level it can mean there are differences. But if those differences are stark, contrast it the way to go.

This was absolutely a stupid and tangential post, but I'm OCD about this stuff.

It's Bostonian.

Lol

 

[reggiecleveland]

Word choice rant:
Compare: estimate, measure, or note the similarity or dissimilarity between.

It drives me crazy that people have decided it means similar. But, English is a language that evolves, so I will have to get used to it, perhaps.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Webster's:

1. 1 : to represent as similar : liken Shall I compare thee to a summer's day? — William Shakespeare
   
   
2. 2a : to examine the character or qualities of especially in order to discover resemblances or differences compare your responses with the answer b : to view in relation to He is tall compared to me. The test was easy compared with the last one.
3. to inflect or modify (an adjective or adverb) according to the degrees of comparison : state the positive, comparative, and superlative forms of

It can mean difference, but is more associated with similarity.

 

[Granite Sox]

When I watch Bradley hit, I find it odd that on his follow-through he releases the bat with his bottom hand and not the top. This is in contrast (did I get that right?) to Papi, for example, whose exaggerated follow-through included a majestic arc of the bat in his bottom hand. I can't think of any other player I see who routinely does what Bradley does. I've never really understood the potential advantages. Certainly that's not THE reason he has a salami bat, but wouldn't that suggest an over-pull, at least in basic terms of swing mechanics?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Webster's:


It can mean difference, but is more associated with similarity.

I think the problem was that people were reading the first half of BP's point ("Bradley's arm in 2014 was being compared to Ellsbury, Crisp, and Damon") and freaking out without reading the second half ("Bradley's arm in 2017 is being compared to his own webgems from 2014-16"), which makes it clear that he's using "compare" in your Webster's sense 2b ("to view in relation to").

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think the problem was that people were reading the first half of BP's point ("Bradley's arm in 2014 was being compared to Ellsbury, Crisp, and Damon") and freaking out without reading the second half ("Bradley's arm in 2017 is being compared to his own webgems from 2014-16"), which makes it clear that he's using "compare" in your Webster's sense 2b ("to view in relation to").

I think the horse is buried pretty deep, man.

What I want to see though is some accuracy again, along with the cannon. Some hitting would be nice too. I don't ask for much.

 

[BestGameEvah]

Of JBJ's 13 assists last year, 5 or 6 were gift wrapped
<Biggest was Washington send of Billy Butler from 2nd on basehit>
And, comments last year were noticeable...accuracy was NOT consistent.
Disagree that runners are not moving on our outfielders. JBJ had several chances in the Cubs series alone that were way off line. He said himself he needed to take an extra split second to make an accurate throw rather than just unleashing it.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Bradley definitely needs to work on his balance and footwork when throwing - too often, he just unleashes it without setting a good base. He can do it, because his arm is strong, but it greatly impacts his accuracy. I saw Mookie exhibit the same problem this past weekend. He needs to go watch some tape of Dwight and Drew! (Or Benintendi, who does seem to set his feet before throwing, from what I've seen.)

 

[BestGameEvah]

Bradley definitely needs to work on his balance and footwork when throwing - too often, he just unleashes it without setting a good base. He can do it, because his arm is strong, but it greatly impacts his accuracy. I saw Mookie exhibit the same problem this past weekend. He needs to go watch some tape of Dwight and Drew! (Or Benintendi, who does seem to set his feet before throwing, from what I've seen.)

Yes, unleashes was exactly what he said he was doing.
Notably, he is out of the lineup again tonight.
See the Alex Speier article today on YOUNG!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/09/red-sox-coaching-staff-recognizes-chris-young-work-and-off-field/d8yrH7U4DzW46HuM4a90JJ/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle

 

[streeter88]

Yes, unleashes was exactly what he said he was doing.
Notably, he is out of the lineup again tonight.
See the Alex Speier article today on YOUNG!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/09/red-sox-coaching-staff-recognizes-chris-young-work-and-off-field/d8yrH7U4DzW46HuM4a90JJ/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle

Great article - thanks for sharing! Maybe just what the Sox need to improve their execution which has seemingly been a bit haphazard both on the basepaths and on defense.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Great article - thanks for sharing! Maybe just what the Sox need to improve their execution which has seemingly been a bit haphazard both on the basepaths and on defense.

According to fangraphs Young is one of the very worst baserunners and defenders on the team. That surprised me. His defensive numbers have been below average for the last 4 years, but he's never been a minus on the bases before. Hopefully that is a short term oddity.

 

[streeter88]

Maybe they are rewarding effort to improve - also a good thing.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Jackie has been terrific with the glove lately, as has the whole Sox outfield. Looking up his numbers, though, he's not even in the top 10 for center fielders in put outs. Kind of surprising, but maybe just a result of the Sox having a ton of strikeouts.

He's tied for fifth with his three assists.

But what's really nice to see is the return of JBJ's bat. Since his BA nadir of .202 on May 29, in the 15 games following he's slashing 365/435/635, with 10 BB and 10 SO.

In the 15 games previous to that, he was 212/328/442, with 12 K and 8 BB.

Maybe most importantly for him, he's got his K-rate under 20 percent for the year now, vs a career rate of just under 25 percent. Huge progress, I think. When he gets the bat on the ball, he hits it hard, so minimizing Ks is going to have a very positive effect on his overall success.

 

[charlieoscar]

Bradley looks to me like he tries to put too much on throws at times and ends up pulling (usually) them to the left.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Jackie has been terrific with the glove lately, as has the whole Sox outfield. Looking up his numbers, though, he's not even in the top 10 for center fielders in put outs. Kind of surprising, but maybe just a result of the Sox having a ton of strikeouts.

He's tied for fifth with his three assists.

But what's really nice to see is the return of JBJ's bat. Since his BA nadir of .202 on May 29, in the 15 games following he's slashing 365/435/635, with 10 BB and 10 SO.

In the 15 games previous to that, he was 212/328/442, with 12 K and 8 BB.

Maybe most importantly for him, he's got his K-rate under 20 percent for the year now, vs a career rate of just under 25 percent. Huge progress, I think. When he gets the bat on the ball, he hits it hard, so minimizing Ks is going to have a very positive effect on his overall success.

His walk rate is also up to 12.5% from hovering between 7.3% to 10.6%. Good strike zone control with his power and D is a combo I can live with, even with his streakiness.