We're Onto the NFL Draft (2019 Prospect Thread)

EL Jeffe

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Jim Nagy (former New England scout and current director of the Senior Bowl) is a great Twitter follow. He said Knox should be in 1st round contention after today's Pro Day.

I personally didn't like Knox's film review. The lack of receiving production is an issue for me, but mainly, I didn't like his blocking. He blocked like a receiving/move TE, but he hasn't shown he can be a high-end target. I particularly encourage people to take a look at the Mississippi State game, where I thought Knox got overwhelmed in the run game (against a talented, athletic and physical defense).

Nagy has forgotten more than I know, but I wouldn't evaluate Knox as a Day 2 pick - let alone Day 1. It looks like he may very well end up being a top 75 guy, but man, that's some serious projecting.
 

E5 Yaz

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At this point, the Patriots will give Chuck Hughes a look
 

EL Jeffe

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Well I guess I officially have enough concerns about Polite where I'd pass at #32. He's starting to remind me a bit of Brandon Spikes. Bad workouts, questionable mental make-up but a lot of really good film. Like Spikes, I'd still be happy with Polite in the 2nd because I can still envision him being a really good player in the right environment...but it's also pretty easy to see him in the XFL in four years. I just can't get past 11 sacks, 17.5 TFL, 6 FF as a rotational end at Florida. That production doesn't happen by accident.

I haven't looked at Marquise Brown in much depth, but just as a casual observer, I'm pretty high on him. I never saw him lasting to #32, but with the foot injury and some other rising players, I think it's a possibility. His frame is obviously an issue, but man, that dude plays FAST. Just runs by high-end corners. Really sudden. Explosive cuts. Great after the catch. Seems to have some toughness to him and played injured late in the year when he easily could have sat out. If the foot checks out, and he's around, that's a guy I'd be very happy with.

I'm starting to hear some late 1st round buzz on LJ Collier, who's one of my binkies. #32 seems a tad rich, but the physical profile is so similar to Trey Flowers. I really liked Collier, more than I liked Ferguson, who a lot of people had in that late 1st range and a potential Patriots target.

Lot of Will Grier 1st round buzz as well. I didn't like Grier at all - didn't like his release, didn't like his velocity (I know he threw hard at the combine though) and I thought he played way too much Hero Ball at QB, trying to force big plays. He's got some It Factor and I know a lot of really smart people like him, but I've got too many questions about him. There are enough Jimmy G qualities to him that I could see the Patriots being interested, but I'm not convinced he has the football IQ needed to play in this system.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm with you on Marquise Brown, but I don't think he makes it to 32. I'd be willing to move up for him, depending on the price, as he's my top WR for the Pats. But then again, if the Pats are trading up I'd rather go get Hockenson.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't want to steal @Super Nomario 's thunder because I think he might have some interesting thoughts to add but I think my board for the Patriots I want a receiver with versatility to play at least 2 of the following: split-end, flanker, slot. I want a good route runner as a base because I think that goes a long way. I want someone who is a good blocker. Oh, and they have to be decent athletic testing for their position. I think the Patriots are trying to get big and fast all over on offense so size is also important. High character guys are great/important, and contributing to special teams is always appreciated and valued.

There are two guys in this draft who can play all 3 positions well, have great athletic testing, are good route runners, but neither will play ST: AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler.

Deebo Samuel would be added to the above but he can't block.

Miles Boykin and Terry McClaurin are two divisive prospects. They both profile as outside guys and/or flankers and could contribute to special teams. Both are high character. These are home run picks. I have vacillated between them but I think Boykin has the higher ceiling.

For flanker/slot: Stanley Morgan Jr is my favorite but there are guys who will be slot only like Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell (could develop into more but a project), Renfrow, etc.

Marquise Brown is a slot only guy. He’s small. I would rather go for a bigger slot guy who can help block.

If in two years the Patriots had a Butler or Brown, Miles Boykin and Stanley Morgan Jr to go with Berrios or whatever 5th round plus undersized slot guy they get this year or next I think that puts you in a great position. Running 11 Personnel with Brown, Boykin, and Morgan Jr gives you two guys with some serious size at the position and Morgan Jr who is a relentless blocker.

I still think Campbell is more in the home run category but if he is the best returner in this draft I can see why he would be appealing. Still a lot of risk for me there but I have come around to where I think it’s fair for him to go.

If Hock goes top 20, he’s still my #1 guy on the board for them, I’d say try to get a Butler or AJ Brown. 32 isn’t so far from high second round anyway and these guys might be so good their fit and valuation might work out at 32.

Hat Tip @Super Nomario for the AJ Brown logic. I was team Stanley Morgan Jr. in the 3 or 4+.

Honestly I am not sure if I like Hakeem the dream Butler or AJ Brown better but I’d rather have Hakeem Butler than DK Metcalf. Same for AJ Brown.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Interesting tidbit: Brian Phillips of SB Nation says that over the last 6 drafts 28 first round picks have made visits to Foxboro in the pre-draft process. Only 1 was drafted by the Pats. It was Dominique Easley.

 

tims4wins

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Interesting tidbit: Brian Phillips of SB Nation says that over the last 6 drafts 28 first round picks have made visits to Foxboro in the pre-draft process. Only 1 was drafted by the Pats. It was Dominique Easley.

I forget where the Pats picked each year but many of those picks never made it to the Pats' pick, right?

Edit: per a follow-up tweet all but 7 were picked before the Pats had a chance
 

Super Nomario

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I forget where the Pats picked each year but many of those picks never made it to the Pats' pick, right?

Edit: per a follow-up tweet all but 7 were picked before the Pats had a chance
And one of those 7 (Bridgewater) they passed on to take another guy on their list (Easley).

Yep. Just a cautionary tale that just because they bring a prospect on campus that it doesn't mean they'll have definite interest.
It means they won't necessarily have the opportunity. It's murkier to what extent it reflects interest or lack thereof.

I think we also shouldn't discount the possibility that they're meeting with these players because they have interest, but sometimes something might happen to reduce the interest in that meeting. Maybe the player stinks on the whiteboard, or isn't quite in shape, or seems to have an attitude with coaching, or they want to see if he can do something and he can't.

Teams only get 30 private visits so I'm sure they're not using them capriciously. But the Patriots are famously tough graders. Nick Caserio has said they usually only have 50-75 players with draftable grades.
 

SMU_Sox

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Just a reminder though that since 2013 of the 1-4 round picks 79.2% have met with Patriots in some capacity or was a direct BB college confidant. Usually those informal lists are 80-140 long so no, they aren’t meeting or have connections to everyone using the data from Pats Pulplit and the cesspool that is Walter Football to put that together.

They used to try to sneak people but I think they have changed that. Since I’ve been paying attention they’ve shifted towards meeting guys.

Last year they met with Michel, Duke Dawson, Jose Berrios, Christian Sam and Crossen. I know I read or heard that they met with Wynn but he’s under the umbrella of coaches in BB’s network. Arbitrary on my part so I won’t include him but that’s 5 guys. They meet with a ton of people. Usually their meetings and the caliber of players they are meeting with can be a tell in terms of a want or need that they will address. So it’s either 5 or 6 guys they met with from Pats Pulpit 2018 tracker alone which didn’t even have as many names as others. 5/9 or 6/9 isn’t bad and Gronk nods in approval for the latter.
 
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tims4wins

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And one of those 7 (Bridgewater) they passed on to take another guy on their list (Easley).


It means they won't necessarily have the opportunity. It's murkier to what extent it reflects interest or lack thereof.

I think we also shouldn't discount the possibility that they're meeting with these players because they have interest, but sometimes something might happen to reduce the interest in that meeting. Maybe the player stinks on the whiteboard, or isn't quite in shape, or seems to have an attitude with coaching, or they want to see if he can do something and he can't.

Teams only get 30 private visits so I'm sure they're not using them capriciously. But the Patriots are famously tough graders. Nick Caserio has said they usually only have 50-75 players with draftable grades.
Medical is probably like 50% of this
 

Super Nomario

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Medical is probably like 50% of this
That's a great point. Kaleb McGary is a great example; he has heart arrhythmia. I don't know where they expect him to go or where they'd be interested, but if he starts falling, they would want to have a clear understanding of why and whether his medicals are something they're willing to risk.
 

RedOctober3829

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And one of those 7 (Bridgewater) they passed on to take another guy on their list (Easley).


It means they won't necessarily have the opportunity. It's murkier to what extent it reflects interest or lack thereof.

I think we also shouldn't discount the possibility that they're meeting with these players because they have interest, but sometimes something might happen to reduce the interest in that meeting. Maybe the player stinks on the whiteboard, or isn't quite in shape, or seems to have an attitude with coaching, or they want to see if he can do something and he can't.

Teams only get 30 private visits so I'm sure they're not using them capriciously. But the Patriots are famously tough graders. Nick Caserio has said they usually only have 50-75 players with draftable grades.
Yes that's really possible. They see players at pro days or combine they have an initial interest in, but as they get him for a longer period of time they find flaws. It's not any different than recruiting in college athletics.
 

SMU_Sox

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Per WEEI, the Pats are looking to trade up into the 15-20 range in the first round.

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/sunday-7-patriots-exploring-options-trading-nfl-draft
Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock.

I don’t think this first round is that loaded. I like the mid-second to about fourth or fifth round value in this year’s draft. None of the other tight ends are as polished and offer as much as he does.
If you have Hock and you want to force an opponent into base, say in 12 personnel, you can pair Hock with anyone on the current roster or virtually anyone else in the draft. Sternberger would be interesting. I’m down on him compared to others but imagine getting Foster Moreau, Kahale Warring, or Dawson Knox and having them develop with Hock. I think Moreau is going to fall too just like a tight end did last year also super athletic but stuck in a run-heavy offense.
 

EL Jeffe

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Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock.

I don’t think this first round is that loaded. I like the mid-second to about fourth or fifth round value in this year’s draft. None of the other tight ends are as polished and offer as much as he does.
If you have Hock and you want to force an opponent into base, say in 12 personnel, you can pair Hock with anyone on the current roster or virtually anyone else in the draft. Sternberger would be interesting. I’m down on him compared to others but imagine getting Foster Moreau, Kahale Warring, or Dawson Knox and having them develop with Hock. I think Moreau is going to fall too just like a tight end did last year also super athletic but stuck in a run-heavy offense.
1000% agree with just about all of this. For me, Hockenson is the best offensive player in the draft and one of the only players I'd want the Patriots to expand significant draft capital for. Every year, some TE inevitably gets compared to Gronk, and it's always a ridiculous comparison. Hockenson is the closest player to Gronk that I've seen. He's extremely physical blocking, and looks to dominate his opponent on every snap. He can execute every block in the Patriots scheme. He catches the ball cleanly, runs well, is good after the catch and runs a complete TE route tree. If he gets by Jacksonville, I'd be surprised. But if he makes it to the 15-ish range, yeah, I'd start making serious calls.

It's bizarre to me how often Fant and Hockenson get lumped in together. I looked at Fant this weekend, and he's NOWHERE near Hockenson for me. Fant's blocking tape was really bad. His athleticism is evident, but he really is a jumbo receiver at this point. I liked Smith Jr and Warring better than Fant.
 

axx

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If he gets by Jacksonville, I'd be surprised. But if he makes it to the 15-ish range, yeah, I'd start making serious calls.
A couple of the mocks I looked at had Hock going to Green Bay at 12. It may end up depending on how many teams take a QB as to where he lands. But 15-20 seems unlikely. Appears that they would even have to trade up to get Fant, if that's who they are after.
 

Super Nomario

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Per WEEI, the Pats are looking to trade up into the 15-20 range in the first round.

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/sunday-7-patriots-exploring-options-trading-nfl-draft
I think this is the money quote: "This isn’t really unusual for this time of year as teams run through frameworks of potential deals to prepare for draft night as things tend to move very quickly come the night of the draft."

IOW, figuring out the parameters of a tradeup deal is just part of standard preparation. It would be surprising if they weren't doing this. But they definitely have ammo to make it happen this year.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think this is the money quote: "This isn’t really unusual for this time of year as teams run through frameworks of potential deals to prepare for draft night as things tend to move very quickly come the night of the draft."

IOW, figuring out the parameters of a tradeup deal is just part of standard preparation. It would be surprising if they weren't doing this. But they definitely have ammo to make it happen this year.
Your last sentence is the key thing here. Sure they do this every year, but they have the draft capital to move up a number of spots.
 

Super Nomario

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I don't think he'll still be there
I think it's hard to tell. A lot of the league seems to think taking a TE that high is a waste of a pick. In the last 10 years you only have three TE going top 20: Brandon Pettigrew (#20, 2009), Eric Ebron (#10, 2014), and O.J. Howard (#19, 2017). I'd say Hockenson and Howard are similarly regarded. It won't surprise me if he goes 10-15, but it also won't surprise me if the teams in that range decide the positional value is better elsewhere and he's around at 20 or so.
 

Shelterdog

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Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock, Hock.

I don’t think this first round is that loaded. I like the mid-second to about fourth or fifth round value in this year’s draft. None of the other tight ends are as polished and offer as much as he does.
If you have Hock and you want to force an opponent into base, say in 12 personnel, you can pair Hock with anyone on the current roster or virtually anyone else in the draft. Sternberger would be interesting. I’m down on him compared to others but imagine getting Foster Moreau, Kahale Warring, or Dawson Knox and having them develop with Hock. I think Moreau is going to fall too just like a tight end did last year also super athletic but stuck in a run-heavy offense.
Hock would be nice but there are also a lot of really good DL. You might be able to pick up a Clelin Ferrell at a relatively late point for a player of is talent.
 

RedOctober3829

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Peter King seems to think based on his sources that Noah Fant will drop possibly to the 2nd round. If that's the case and he's available, what do you do? Do you pick him and satisfy the TE need or if there is a front four guy, a WR, or someone like Greedy Williams(who King suggests will fall) who the Pats like draft another position and trade up early 2nd to get the TE? It's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.
 

axx

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What would be very Patriots would be to trade one of the seconds for a 2020 first. The idea would be to get more ammo to get Brady's replacement in the 2020 draft. Or maybe one of the thirds for a 2020 second.

100% agree that Bill is going to do some dealing with the picks.
 

tims4wins

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Peter King seems to think based on his sources that Noah Fant will drop possibly to the 2nd round. If that's the case and he's available, what do you do? Do you pick him and satisfy the TE need or if there is a front four guy, a WR, or someone like Greedy Williams(who King suggests will fall) who the Pats like draft another position and trade up early 2nd to get the TE? It's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.
I don't think they touch Fant. I think they want a true two-way player for that position.
 

finnVT

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What would be very Patriots would be to trade one of the seconds for a 2020 first. The idea would be to get more ammo to get Brady's replacement in the 2020 draft. Or maybe one of the thirds for a 2020 second.

100% agree that Bill is going to do some dealing with the picks.
it's really hard to find good data summarizing this, but I feel like the league has kind of caught up to this particular gambit. Almost all recent 1st round pick trades have either been to get an established player back, or have returned at least one other 1st rounded (e.g., trade up/down, or 2 1sts for a higher 1st). Some exceptions in recent memory:

2018: Eagles/Ravens, which netted 2 2nd rounders for #32.
2017: Packers/Browns, which took a 4th to move up just 4 spots from the 2nd to 1st.
2016: Chiefs/49ers, where a 4th moved up 9 spots
2015: none
2014: Vikings/Seahawks, where a 4th moved up 8 spots

So this seems doable if you're moving up <10 spots, or willing to part with multiple 2nds. Neither seem extremely likely to apply to the Pats this year.
 

pappymojo

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it's really hard to find good data summarizing this, but I feel like the league has kind of caught up to this particular gambit. Almost all recent 1st round pick trades have either been to get an established player back, or have returned at least one other 1st rounded (e.g., trade up/down, or 2 1sts for a higher 1st). Some exceptions in recent memory:

2018: Eagles/Ravens, which netted 2 2nd rounders for #32.
2017: Packers/Browns, which took a 4th to move up just 4 spots from the 2nd to 1st.
2016: Chiefs/49ers, where a 4th moved up 9 spots
2015: none
2014: Vikings/Seahawks, where a 4th moved up 8 spots

So this seems doable if you're moving up <10 spots, or willing to part with multiple 2nds. Neither seem extremely likely to apply to the Pats this year.
It only takes one partner to make a deal.

Chicago is missing both their first and second round picks this year. Dallas is missing their first round pick. The Saints are missing picks in the first, third and fourth rounds. The Seahawks only have four picks total (none in the second round). All four of those teams made the playoffs last year - in other words, they might see their window as now. So, I wouldn't be surprised if each of those teams were open to trading from next year's cache to acquire picks this year.

I expect lots of trades from the Patriots (both up and down the draft board and into future years). As it is, I think it is very unlikely they make 12 picks this year. I would probably put the over/under at 8 picks total*.

I could even see them trading up in the first round and then trading up again in the second round.

Both Seattle at 21 and Baltimore at 22 are missing second round picks currently so you would think that those teams would be open to the conversation if the Patriots were offering 32 and 64 to move up.

*I think the Patriots benefit from branding themselves as a team where undrafted rookie free agents can come and earn a spot. It makes sense to leave some roster space available for some of those players to make the roster.
 

RedOctober3829

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DJnVa

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Per source, the #Patriots have TE Jace Sternberger in for a visit today. Transferred from Kansas and a JUCO to Texas A&M and was an All-American last year (48 recs, 832, 10 TDs).
Per some things I'm reading, he's not going to be a good blocker at the NFL level, despite a willingness to do it.

Does say this though, at NFL.com:
"You wish he was a little bit faster but he makes up for it with his routes. You feed him, get him stronger and you'll have an NFL starter who gets you 50 to 60 catches a year." -- AFC tight ends coach
Goud route runners are important everywhere, but especially with Brady.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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The Athletic did a 7 round mock draft and this is a dream top 4 picks.
32. Jeffrey Simmons
56. Irv Smith
64. Jahlani Tavai, LB Hawaii
73. D'Andre Walker, Edge, Georgia
97. Ryan Finley
101. Mecole Hardman
134. Ka'Dar Hollman, CB Toledo
205. Trevon Wesco, TE West Virginia
239. Darius West, S Kentucky
246. David Edwards, T Wisconsin
252. Qadree Ollison RB Pitt

https://theathletic.com/909149/2019/04/08/dane-bruglers-mock-draft-5-0-projecting-all-seven-rounds-and-all-254-selections/
Why do they believe the Pats will draft someone who just recently tore their ACL and punched a woman in the face a few years ago?
 

pappymojo

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I think they've shown a willingness to draft a player who drops due to injury before.

With the incident, I haven't seen the video, but I think they can talk themselves into it if he interviews well. From what I understand the woman was fighting his sister and he got involved. He regrets it but he was young and stupid and trying to defend someone. We all make mistakes.
 

EL Jeffe

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Simmons is a legit top 5 type/Fletcher Cox level prospect. As I said a few weeks back, if he's there at #32 (which is at best a coin flip), I'd absolutely be willing to take him. He's the type of prospect they never otherwise get a chance to sniff at.

As for as the character question, I think you have to keep in mind that it happened before he ever enrolled in college (it was between high school and college). He was given a 2nd chance, and by all accounts, he's taken advantage of it. His coaches and teammates rave about him as a person, and he was academic All-SEC (3.0+ GPA).
 

BigJimEd

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I think they've shown a willingness to draft a player who drops due to injury before.

With the incident, I haven't seen the video, but I think they can talk themselves into it if he interviews well. From what I understand the woman was fighting his sister and he got involved. He regrets it but he was young and stupid and trying to defend someone. We all make mistakes.
A quick Google search will show clips. The woman is lying in the ground and he and his sister (?) are punching her. It's bad.
However, I haven't seen what transpired before then.
 

EL Jeffe

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From what I understand, his sister and the woman were in a physical altercation. Simmons attempted to break it up, the other woman said something about a deceased family member, and Simmons lost it. (Not an excuse of his behavior, just the background of what happened)
 

Super Nomario

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I get the appeal of the home run swing for Simmons, but after the Dominique Easley debacle I'm not too keen on a guy with two red flags. Give me a solid double.
 

SMU_Sox

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I get the appeal of the home run swing for Simmons, but after the Dominique Easley debacle I'm not too keen on a guy with two red flags. Give me a solid double.
100x this. I am sorry but I do not want to play the domestic violence is the new market inefficiency strategy. ACL and domestic violence concerns? Sorry I am out from my armchair over here. Always the caveat that if they met him and love his tape and think he is a system fit, hard worker, etc. they could draft him but I hope they do not.
 

EL Jeffe

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Not looking to belabor the Simmons discussion too much, but a couple of points and then I'll let it rest.

  • Easley tore his ACL twice in college (and then once in the NFL), so that was an unusual situation. Simmons just has a single ACL tear, so at this point, there isn't anything to suggest he's a medical red flag. He may be a rookie red shirt; certainly at least a PUP candidate. But beyond that, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be fine going forward.
  • His pre-college violent encounter as a teenager is also (at this point) an isolated incident. I can't find anyone who has anything bad to say about him as a person from college on. Everyone seems to vouch for the guy, and that's definitely not always the case in these situations. By all accounts, he learned from an awful decision. He won his school's Newsom Award for community service. and he was a two-time academic honor role recipient. I don't get any Tyreek Hill vibes from him.
Based on everything I've read, I'd take him. But I can see why others would pass.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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Not looking to belabor the Simmons discussion too much, but a couple of points and then I'll let it rest.

  • Easley tore his ACL twice in college (and then once in the NFL), so that was an unusual situation. Simmons just has a single ACL tear, so at this point, there isn't anything to suggest he's a medical red flag. He may be a rookie red shirt; certainly at least a PUP candidate. But beyond that, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be fine going forward.
  • His pre-college violent encounter as a teenager is also (at this point) an isolated incident. I can't find anyone who has anything bad to say about him as a person from college on. Everyone seems to vouch for the guy, and that's definitely not always the case in these situations. By all accounts, he learned from an awful decision. He won his school's Newsom Award for community service. and he was a two-time academic honor role recipient. I don't get any Tyreek Hill vibes from him.
Based on everything I've read, I'd take him. But I can see why others would pass.
It's a really tricky area but i agree with your second bullet. You have to look at these things on a case by base basis. He did a very bad thing when he was still very young. If a player is entering the draft as a senior and recently hit a woman then I think you write him off and don't think twice about it. But he was 17/18 when he hit a woman. I don't know if Jeffery Simmons has learned from his mistake and grown into a better man or not. But I do think it's not wrong to give a 17/18 year old kid the chance to prove that he has grown into a just, respectful person or not. From public accounts this guy has but the Pats are going to have a lot more info then any of us and I'd have to believe that if he is still a character risk then he will be off their board.