Вперёд! 2018 World Cup Qualifiers
- Thread starter Titans Bastard
- Start date
Any idea how television is handling the Tuesday night onslaught of matches? None are in the US or Mexico, so BeIn should have the rights to all 3 Concacaf matches and all 5 Conmebol matches, which are all essentially being played at the same time.
Anyone looking for more football today in advance of tonight's CONCACAF action has plenty of UEFA qualifier action to choose from:
- Wales is underway at (eliminated) Georgia. A win preserves their runner-up position; anything else and Ireland could leapfrog them. The two face off against each other on Monday in Cardiff, probably for a playoff spot.
- Serbia is defending their group-leading spot against Austria at 2:45 on ESPN3; an (unlikely) win could put the Austrians into contention to jump both Wales and Georgia, but they would need no-hope Moldova to do something in Ireland as well.
- Italy and Spain are both in action; Italy needs a result vs Albania to eliminate them and secure a playoff spot (they are 3 behind Spain for the auto-bid).
- Group I is where the action is at today, though. On 16 points, you have Croatia (+9, vs eliminated-but-frisky Finland) and Iceland (+4, @Turkey). At 14 points, you have Turkey (+4) and Ukraine (+4 @ woeful Kosovo). You can see a plausible path for any of the 4 of them, even if Croatia by rights ought to be the class of the group.
Iceland-Turkey is probably the match of the day, unless you're really into British Isles football.
- Wales is underway at (eliminated) Georgia. A win preserves their runner-up position; anything else and Ireland could leapfrog them. The two face off against each other on Monday in Cardiff, probably for a playoff spot.
- Serbia is defending their group-leading spot against Austria at 2:45 on ESPN3; an (unlikely) win could put the Austrians into contention to jump both Wales and Georgia, but they would need no-hope Moldova to do something in Ireland as well.
- Italy and Spain are both in action; Italy needs a result vs Albania to eliminate them and secure a playoff spot (they are 3 behind Spain for the auto-bid).
- Group I is where the action is at today, though. On 16 points, you have Croatia (+9, vs eliminated-but-frisky Finland) and Iceland (+4, @Turkey). At 14 points, you have Turkey (+4) and Ukraine (+4 @ woeful Kosovo). You can see a plausible path for any of the 4 of them, even if Croatia by rights ought to be the class of the group.
Iceland-Turkey is probably the match of the day, unless you're really into British Isles football.
I know, and you're right... but they both ought to count their lucky stars to have someone of that caliber to interplay with. Messi isn't strictly a table-setter, he's far more of a finisher than Dybala; Dybala is more brilliant about setting things up out of the midfield and has better topspeed, if not quickness. They both have astonishing passing touch. Similar games? Sure, but obviously neither is so one-dimensional that they can't adjust to find complementary positioning on any given possession.
If Sampaoli can't find a lineup that gets them both on the field and not in each other's way (and he's making excuses for it), he's not the manager we think he is. Put Higuain or (when healthy) Aguero in front of them - to hell with this Benedetto first-start nonsense - and let them each find the central space created by the other.
beIN SPORTS has the English-language rights to the Trinidad and Tobago versus USA game on Tuesday night, which means that none of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers will be shown live on beIN SPORTS. Instead, one match will be shown on beIN SPORTS en Espanol (Ecuador-Argentina), but beIN SPORTS en Espanol will be running “multi” coverage where they’ll be showing Ecuador-Argentina but will jump around to the other four CONMEBOL games whenever anything newsworthy happens.
Last but not least, all of the games will be streamed live on beIN SPORTS Connect which will be your best way to watch the games if you want to watch them in their entirety
Can't we just get @ConigliarosPotential to stream us some live commentary? You know, for product testing and feedback purposes, and building his portfolio.
I don't think Argentina need to worry about defending the wings too much. They aren't giving up goals, but they're not scoring them which is the issue. Mercado is stout enough to be a CB and he's really a FB, so one side of the D is covered. Otamendi is fast enough to cover the other. I'd like to know if Di Maria went out with injury or if it was tactical.
Wales wins 1-0; Ireland now needs to do likewise vs Moldova, and then win in Cardiff, to make the playoffs. A draw vs Moldova would mean Ireland would need a 5-goal win to leap Wales. Wales has only give up as many as 2 goals once in their 9 WCQ matches (2-2 @ Austria).
Group G (Spain & Italy) is somewhat amusing. They've beaten the pants off of the rest of their group, but Spain won 3-0 in Madrid and drew 1-1 in Turin, so 4-time world champs Italy will be forced to beat the likes of Scotland or Bosnia to qualify.
Italy is wearing their road shirts so that Buffon can wear the Azzurri blue shirt as a goalkeeper. It's his 172nd cap, the most in UEFA history and tied for 4th most all-time.
Iceland up 2-0 in Turkey. If Croatia doesn't get off the schneid vs Finland, Iceland will have jumped them and may well auto-qualify on Monday, by far the smallest nation to do so in recent decades.
@Insta: if Ireland drew Moldova, they would have needed a 5-goal-swing vs.Wales, not a 5-goal-win (which would have still been very unlikely). With the win vs. Moldova, Ireland sets it up for any win in the last match, as you said.
In group I, Turkey(14p.) sadly lost 0-3 vs. Iceland and is out. A draw would have been perfect for the drama in that group. Now, Iceland (19p., home vs.Kosovo(1p), should be through as the group winner. If they beat Kosovo, they win the group.
Ukraine vs. Croatia go for 2nd place in head-to-head. Both have 17p. If they draw, Croatia will finish 2nd. They won the 1st match (1-0) and have better goals, so Ukraine would need a win. If Ukraine wins, they can go to 20p and even finish ahead of Iceland, if they lose (Iceland has the head-to-head). If Croatia wins, they could win the group even if Iceland draws, as Croatia owns the head-to-head vs. Iceland.
Imagine if Turkey would be in the mix
Another possible final: If Sweden (home vs.Luxemburg) and Netherlands (@Belarussia) both win in Group A today, this will set up a group final for the 2nd-place finisher behind France, who should (not safe, yet!) make their way to the 1st place (@Bulgaria, home vs.Belarussia). My guess: Sweden beats Luxemburg, Netherlands draw@ Belarussia, France draws @Bulgaria, Netherlands vs.Sweden draws, France beats Belarussia. Finish: France: 21p, Sweden: 20p., Netherlands: 15p....
More drama: Both Switzerland and Portugal playing almost flawless qualifications and meeting in the last round. Before that, they both have some business to do (Switzerland vs.Hungary, Andorra vs.Portugal), which is not a lot of trouble.
If they win their matches, and Portugal wins their last round meeting Tuesday in Lissabon, they both finish with 9 wins and 1 loss. Portugal should have the better goals record, but it will come down to the head-to-head record first. Switzerland beat them 2-0 in the 1st match. Portugal has to win 2-0 or by +3 if Switzerland scores. Switzerland has to lose by -1 or by -2 if they score a goal. 2-0 would mean goal +/- would come into effect, I think, which would mean Portugal (+24 vs +15) would win this.
Seems like a weak group, but you have to play those results and then you finish 2nd with those close-to-perfect results and may draw Italy or France.
Group H seems like one of the weakest groups. Maybe Bosnia still makes it to the playoffs. They still have to play vs.Belgium and @Estonia. Maybe the get 4 points, maybe only 1. They are unpredictable.
2n place table:
Position / Nation / matches vs.relevant teams (last-place team does not count) / points / goal +/-
1 Portugal / 6 / 15p / +18
2 Italy / 7 / 14p / +3
3 Denmark / 7 / 13p / +7
4 N.Ireland / 7 / 13p / +5
5 Wales / 7 / 11p / +2
6 Croatia / 7 / 11p / +2
7 Scotland / 7 / 11p / -1
8 Sweden / 6 / 10p / +3
9 Bosnia / 6 / 8p / +3
In group I, Turkey(14p.) sadly lost 0-3 vs. Iceland and is out. A draw would have been perfect for the drama in that group. Now, Iceland (19p., home vs.Kosovo(1p), should be through as the group winner. If they beat Kosovo, they win the group.
Ukraine vs. Croatia go for 2nd place in head-to-head. Both have 17p. If they draw, Croatia will finish 2nd. They won the 1st match (1-0) and have better goals, so Ukraine would need a win. If Ukraine wins, they can go to 20p and even finish ahead of Iceland, if they lose (Iceland has the head-to-head). If Croatia wins, they could win the group even if Iceland draws, as Croatia owns the head-to-head vs. Iceland.
Imagine if Turkey would be in the mix
Another possible final: If Sweden (home vs.Luxemburg) and Netherlands (@Belarussia) both win in Group A today, this will set up a group final for the 2nd-place finisher behind France, who should (not safe, yet!) make their way to the 1st place (@Bulgaria, home vs.Belarussia). My guess: Sweden beats Luxemburg, Netherlands draw@ Belarussia, France draws @Bulgaria, Netherlands vs.Sweden draws, France beats Belarussia. Finish: France: 21p, Sweden: 20p., Netherlands: 15p....
More drama: Both Switzerland and Portugal playing almost flawless qualifications and meeting in the last round. Before that, they both have some business to do (Switzerland vs.Hungary, Andorra vs.Portugal), which is not a lot of trouble.
If they win their matches, and Portugal wins their last round meeting Tuesday in Lissabon, they both finish with 9 wins and 1 loss. Portugal should have the better goals record, but it will come down to the head-to-head record first. Switzerland beat them 2-0 in the 1st match. Portugal has to win 2-0 or by +3 if Switzerland scores. Switzerland has to lose by -1 or by -2 if they score a goal. 2-0 would mean goal +/- would come into effect, I think, which would mean Portugal (+24 vs +15) would win this.
Seems like a weak group, but you have to play those results and then you finish 2nd with those close-to-perfect results and may draw Italy or France.
Group H seems like one of the weakest groups. Maybe Bosnia still makes it to the playoffs. They still have to play vs.Belgium and @Estonia. Maybe the get 4 points, maybe only 1. They are unpredictable.
2n place table:
Position / Nation / matches vs.relevant teams (last-place team does not count) / points / goal +/-
1 Portugal / 6 / 15p / +18
2 Italy / 7 / 14p / +3
3 Denmark / 7 / 13p / +7
4 N.Ireland / 7 / 13p / +5
5 Wales / 7 / 11p / +2
6 Croatia / 7 / 11p / +2
7 Scotland / 7 / 11p / -1
8 Sweden / 6 / 10p / +3
9 Bosnia / 6 / 8p / +3
Sweden hammering Luxembourg 6-0 and counting, how France drew 0-0 to Luxembourg I'll never know. The win is going to momentarily put Sweden in first by two points, although France can reassert control of the group with a win later today at Bulgaria. More importantly, it is going to likely give Sweden the edge against the Netherlands and France in goal differential, which might theoretically eliminate the Netherlands before they meet Sweden on Tuesday. Terrific post-Zlatan Ewing theory study.
Nigeria has qualified for the WC with their win over Zambia. They cruised in a tough group that included three of CAF's five entrants in the 2014 WC. Cameroon and Algeria are out for 2018.
Group D is nutty. South Africa just beat Burkina Faso to jump from last place to first place. They may slide back to second depending on the outcome of the Cape Verde-Senegal game. It's entirely possible that all four teams will have a shot at winning the group heading into the final round of matches.
Group D is nutty. South Africa just beat Burkina Faso to jump from last place to first place. They may slide back to second depending on the outcome of the Cape Verde-Senegal game. It's entirely possible that all four teams will have a shot at winning the group heading into the final round of matches.
Slight correction on this - South Africa is in last place with 4 points because their win over Senegal was annulled because the ref was found to have fixed the match. Senegal playing at Cape Verde are playing right now.
edit: kinda weird, just looked it up and Senegal/SA (11/10 and 11/14) play their two matches after Cape Verde and Burkina Faso (11/6) are completely done. Has to be some reason for that, I thought they'd play two games the same day as normal and then SA and Senegal do their replay at the end.
Last edited:
Senegal won 2-0, both goals in the last 10, Diafra Sakho first and then the second goal rather ridiculous. Cape Verde clearance hit the ref, bounced to a Senegal player who scored a curler from about 20 yards.
Senegal has 8 pts and lead the group by 2 points with a game in hand.
Senegal has 8 pts and lead the group by 2 points with a game in hand.
Ghana is asking for their game against Uganda to be replayed after it ended 0-0 when the referee controversially disallowed a 93rd minute winner.
The Netherlands gave up an equalizer to Belarus and were less than 10 minutes from being out, but Robben just converted a penalty to keep hopes alive. In reality, they needed to win by a bunch in this game to give themselves any hope due to their GD disadvantage.
The Netherlands gave up an equalizer to Belarus and were less than 10 minutes from being out, but Robben just converted a penalty to keep hopes alive. In reality, they needed to win by a bunch in this game to give themselves any hope due to their GD disadvantage.
In a game that ended in a way that can only be called Concacafy, Costa Rica equalized in stoppage time.
This sends Costa Rica straight to Russia, and hurts Honduras's chances.
By way of GD, a Panama win puts them in the 4th spot with a playoff vs Asia (Syria or Australia). A Panama win and an unlikely US loss sends Panama straight to the WC.
All 3 teams that have something to play for face teams that don't. Panama faces Costa Rica at home, USA faces T&T and Honduras faces Mexico in San Pedro Sula.
This sends Costa Rica straight to Russia, and hurts Honduras's chances.
By way of GD, a Panama win puts them in the 4th spot with a playoff vs Asia (Syria or Australia). A Panama win and an unlikely US loss sends Panama straight to the WC.
All 3 teams that have something to play for face teams that don't. Panama faces Costa Rica at home, USA faces T&T and Honduras faces Mexico in San Pedro Sula.
Last edited:
It’s a replay of the fixed match. Not ideal, but also may not mean anything if Senegal maintain their position.
Edit: A Senegalese friend of mine complains endlessly about the national team. They arguable have the most talented squad in Africa, but have a coach (Cissé) whos’s only coaching experience is with the national federation. My friend is ready to take up a collection to hire Gus Hiddink for he World Cup, and this team does seem like it could make a lot noise in Russia with a little luck and good coaching.
Last edited:
Some sweet final-rounds-of-UEFA-qualifiers matches coming up the next 3 days. With only 13 bids to the WCF, because FIFA, there are some great teams that are going to get left out (starting, it seems, with the Dutch).
Sunday: (games at 12:00pm ET)
- In Group E, Poland hosts Montenegro; Poland needs a point to assure their group win, but Montenegro needs 3 points, and a Danish loss against Romania, to jump into the playoff spot.
- England (at Lithuania) is safe, but the Group F playoff spot is up for grabs. Scotland (17, +5) at Slovenia (14, +5) is the game of the day; the Scots are in pole position, but need a win to keep hope alive; a draw or Slovenia win would likely mean Slovakia (15, +7) takes the runner-up spot, unless the Slovaks somehow drop points to Malta.
Monday: (USA U-17 at 7:30am ET)
- Finland's shocking 90th-minute equalizer at Croatia means the Croats need a result at Ukraine to make the playoffs from Group I; Iceland, meanwhile, can lock up their spot in the WCF with a mere win against woeful Kosovo.
- Group D has a lot of action: Serbia (18) leads the group and hosts eliminated Georgia. Any slip-up by them could cost them the group. However, the match of the day is:
- Wales vs Ireland, 2:45pm ET. Ireland needs a win or they're out; for Wales, a draw would take them to the playoffs, but a win would see them qualify directly if Serbia drops any points.
Tuesday:
- Netherlands needs to beat Sweden by at least 7 (6 would see them lose the tiebreaker by 1 GS) to make the playoffs instead of Sweden; France needs to be careful vs Belarus and can't just play the B team, because a Sweden result would mean France needs points to stay top of group A.
- Portugal vs Switzerland, 2:45pm ET - a win would put Portugal through, any other result sees the Swiss at the top of group B and Portugal in the playoffs.
Sunday: (games at 12:00pm ET)
- In Group E, Poland hosts Montenegro; Poland needs a point to assure their group win, but Montenegro needs 3 points, and a Danish loss against Romania, to jump into the playoff spot.
- England (at Lithuania) is safe, but the Group F playoff spot is up for grabs. Scotland (17, +5) at Slovenia (14, +5) is the game of the day; the Scots are in pole position, but need a win to keep hope alive; a draw or Slovenia win would likely mean Slovakia (15, +7) takes the runner-up spot, unless the Slovaks somehow drop points to Malta.
Monday: (USA U-17 at 7:30am ET)
- Finland's shocking 90th-minute equalizer at Croatia means the Croats need a result at Ukraine to make the playoffs from Group I; Iceland, meanwhile, can lock up their spot in the WCF with a mere win against woeful Kosovo.
- Group D has a lot of action: Serbia (18) leads the group and hosts eliminated Georgia. Any slip-up by them could cost them the group. However, the match of the day is:
- Wales vs Ireland, 2:45pm ET. Ireland needs a win or they're out; for Wales, a draw would take them to the playoffs, but a win would see them qualify directly if Serbia drops any points.
Tuesday:
- Netherlands needs to beat Sweden by at least 7 (6 would see them lose the tiebreaker by 1 GS) to make the playoffs instead of Sweden; France needs to be careful vs Belarus and can't just play the B team, because a Sweden result would mean France needs points to stay top of group A.
- Portugal vs Switzerland, 2:45pm ET - a win would put Portugal through, any other result sees the Swiss at the top of group B and Portugal in the playoffs.
Thank god scotland is on FS2. They had the fucking England snooze fest on Thursday, I had to find some sketchy Eastern European feed.
I’m no Fletch or even Rip, but I’ve got a bit of the blood in me and I’m very nervous/excited. If they can win and not be last 2nd place team, there’s a bunch of winnable games in the playoffs.
I’m no Fletch or even Rip, but I’ve got a bit of the blood in me and I’m very nervous/excited. If they can win and not be last 2nd place team, there’s a bunch of winnable games in the playoffs.
Kendall Waston's goal to tie Honduras and clinch qualification for Costa Rica:
Nonpartisan reaction in a Honduran newsroom:
Perennial chokers Egypt finally qualify for a World Cup again after 28 years in the cold. They've won the Africa Cup of Nations four times in the intervening period.
That also means that Ghana won't play the US in a fourth consecutive World Cup, as they have been eliminated.
Ivory Coast is on the ropes, too. They play group leaders Morocco at home in November; anything less than a win will send Morocco through.
Nonpartisan reaction in a Honduran newsroom:
Perennial chokers Egypt finally qualify for a World Cup again after 28 years in the cold. They've won the Africa Cup of Nations four times in the intervening period.
That also means that Ghana won't play the US in a fourth consecutive World Cup, as they have been eliminated.
Ivory Coast is on the ropes, too. They play group leaders Morocco at home in November; anything less than a win will send Morocco through.
Just gotta feel bad for the Honduran team, I mean, they're such nice guys, you want to see that rewarded...
...and speaking of which, the LB who defended the winger putting in the cross had a total take-out slide, studs-up, right after the ball went out. Like, would-be-a-red-card-in-europe grade slide. Check 2:05 on the first clip. Ouch. Talk about instant karma.
Cool article about Iceland’s 20 year plan:
https://sports.yahoo.com/iceland-becomes-smallest-nation-ever-qualify-world-cup-204839186.html
https://sports.yahoo.com/iceland-becomes-smallest-nation-ever-qualify-world-cup-204839186.html
It's crazy that they've done this and lost one of their best players (Aron Jóhannsson) from the current pool.
I wonder how often he wishes he didn't switch now. Although he did go to a WC.
Syria has scored early in Australia to go up 2-1 in their playoff tie.
EDIT: and less than 5 minutes later, Cahill equalizes. 1-1 12 minutes in, 2-2 on aggregate.
EDIT: and less than 5 minutes later, Cahill equalizes. 1-1 12 minutes in, 2-2 on aggregate.
Australia should be ashamed by their time wasting after they took the lead in the 2nd part of stoppage time.
I realize they playing a juggernaut in Syria who is down to ten me as well. But get off the field if you have a cramp, you would have thought the guy was dead with the way the trainers were working on him on the field...somehow once he was off the field he is walking back to the bench, amazing recovery.
Edit: 2 minutes of extra time is a joke.
I realize they playing a juggernaut in Syria who is down to ten me as well. But get off the field if you have a cramp, you would have thought the guy was dead with the way the trainers were working on him on the field...somehow once he was off the field he is walking back to the bench, amazing recovery.
Edit: 2 minutes of extra time is a joke.
That article is good, but its key information is pulled from this 2016 Guardian article, which is much longer, more thoroughly-researched, and which I found to be much better-written. It was written before the Euros, but nothing about it is stale. Here is Sunil Gulati's task, summed up neatly:
The rest of the article adds meat to that description and justification to those causal claims. It's fascinating for anyone who wants to see how simple the path to a better system would be, but for all the other competing interests the rest of our countries must wrangle with. And then you think about the ways in which we simply waste money and time. For someone who grew up playing youth soccer in MA in the 80s as what was little more than "supervised energy expenditure for kids", it was pretty revelatory. How could "facilities, coaching, proximity to schools, and ease-of-access for all kids" be so complicated? In a land with far better weather, far more grass, far more disposable income?
Friendly reminder that CONMEBOL qualifiers will all be at 7:20pm EST tonight. Brazil is the only team officially in, but I believe Uruguay can finish no lower than 5th (the CONMEBOL-New Zealand playoff spot). They also play Bolivia who is sitting 9th out of 10.
The table as it stands now (goal differential):
Brazil - 38
Uruguay - 28 (10)
Chile - 26 (2)
Colombia - 26 (2)
Peru - 25 (1, has goals scored as a tie-breaker over Argentina 26-16)
Argentina - 25 (1)
Paraguay - 24 (-5)
In third, Chile looks to be in a good spot as they will play a likely sub-optimal Brazil team, but they need points to be safe. Colombia and Peru play each other in what will be an awesome match, since both teams will likely go for the win to avoid depending on Argentina dropping points. That could change if the match is still even heading towards the finals 15-20 minutes. Argentina head to Quito (Altitude 9,350 ft.) in what amounts to a must-win match. Argentina could sneak into a top-5 spot with a draw and Colombia win or Peru win by 2 goals or more. Paraguay play cellar-dwellers Venezuela and need a win to keep any hope alive. This will be riveting, nerve-wracking, and I will certainly be a mess all evening.
VAMOS ARGENTINA CARAJO!
The table as it stands now (goal differential):
Brazil - 38
Uruguay - 28 (10)
Chile - 26 (2)
Colombia - 26 (2)
Peru - 25 (1, has goals scored as a tie-breaker over Argentina 26-16)
Argentina - 25 (1)
Paraguay - 24 (-5)
In third, Chile looks to be in a good spot as they will play a likely sub-optimal Brazil team, but they need points to be safe. Colombia and Peru play each other in what will be an awesome match, since both teams will likely go for the win to avoid depending on Argentina dropping points. That could change if the match is still even heading towards the finals 15-20 minutes. Argentina head to Quito (Altitude 9,350 ft.) in what amounts to a must-win match. Argentina could sneak into a top-5 spot with a draw and Colombia win or Peru win by 2 goals or more. Paraguay play cellar-dwellers Venezuela and need a win to keep any hope alive. This will be riveting, nerve-wracking, and I will certainly be a mess all evening.
VAMOS ARGENTINA CARAJO!
There are reports of pools of water on the pitch. Have you seen this? I guess the weather calls for rain right up to the start of the match as well.
Sweden playing defensive against a desperate Dutch side that needs about 7 goals to qualify for the playoff round. Sweden seems content to avoid trying to score and coast on their massive GD to see them through; which is annoying because they would catch France if France doesn't beat Belarus (2-1 France right now) with a win over the Netherlands.
As it stands at the moment, Switzerland would go 9-1 in qualifying and end up in a playoff. They have 40 minutes to find an equalizer against Portugal (who would also be 9-1 with a win but have a superior GD).
This is what happens when the other 4 teams in the group are Hungary, Andorra, Latvia, and the Faroe Islands.
This is what happens when the other 4 teams in the group are Hungary, Andorra, Latvia, and the Faroe Islands.
The micro states really do muddle things in UEFA, Sweden really is in because they smacked Luxembourg 8-0 on Friday which ran up their GD to +19, but at the same time, every team had to play the same schedule. They also stole three points against France thanks to an all-time blunder by Lloris.
The fate of teams in UEFA and especially CAF relies far too much on farcical FIFA rankings that determine seeding pots. In UEFA the second place playoff is a safety valve for situations when Italy is Pot 2 and is paired with Spain while Romania and Wales are Pot 1, but it's still not a great system. I don't think 2018 is an especially great example of this with Slovakia (who aren't very good), but the "worst 2nd place finisher" is often a victim of the draw, too - tougher opponents from the lower pots result in a harder strength of schedule and lower point total as more countries beat up on each other.
Condensing the field to a group stage in which more teams per group emerged from fewer overall groups would be fairer and would do a better job of selecting the best teams from the region.
I don't think UEFA would ever switch it up. There's a nice scheduling symmetry where every country plays an equal number of games (at least this time - adding Russia back to the mix gets you to 55 and makes it messier. Thanks Gibraltar!) and undoubtedly the lesser nations of UEFA would protest getting dumped out of qualifying early. I just don't see how the systems in CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, AFC, and OFC aren't clearly better, though.
Leaving aside that UEFA should have 16 bids and CONMEBOL at least 6, arguably 7:
54 nations enter qualifying:
- bottom 12 ranked teams play a home-and-home matchup, advancing 6. Next cycle, make it bottom 14 advancing 7.
- Advancing 6 join top 42 = 48 participants. 8 groups of 6. Play round-robin hexes as now.
- 8 Group Winners qualify.
The 16 group 2nd and 3rd places then go into a 16-team double-elimination double-legged tournament, qualifying 5.
- 8 third-place teams face off against each other in home-and-homes ("the QFs"), advancing 4.
- Advancing 4 teams are drawn with 8 group runners-up with whom they did not share a hex group (= 12, "the SFs"), advancing 6.
- Advancing 6 teams play off against a team they didn't share a group with (the "Finals"); the 3 winners qualify.
- The last-chance bracket starts with the 4 losing teams from the QFs plus the 6 losing teams from the SFs* (who are the seeded teams by default, other than the last-ranked one), advancing 5 ("losers' QFs")
- 5 winners of the Losers' QFs join the 3 losers of the Finals, playing off ("losers' SFs) and advancing 4.
- 4 winners of Losers' SFs play off ("losers' Finals") for the final 2 qualification spots.
Top teams play exactly as many matches as they do today, and qualify off that. Varying suckitude of Europe's minnows has far less impact with half of them gone, and the other half can feel that they won something. Fully half of the non-minnows have a shot even after the group stage. Too many matches? Make the last-chance bracket single-legged at the higher seed's stadium, FA Cup style.
* non-traditional for a double-elimination tournament, I realize. QF losers actually play fewer matches than SF losers for those who end up qualifying via losers'-bracket. But the alternative (give the top loser from the Finals a bye) means an additional round for everyone, and this is already overwrought.
edit: alternative could be, 8 group runners-up play off for 4 spots; 8 third-place teams play off in 3 rounds for the 1 final spot. Either way, 3rd in your group should still offer a path, however remote, to qualification. Even if you disagree, you could have the 8 runners-up qualify 4 via an initial playoff, with the 4 losers playing off for the 1 final spot.
Lots of options here to solve the "Italy and Spain drawn together" problem, and the "Netherlands fucked up once and couldn't recover" problem, and especially the "high variance at the bottom of the barrel" problem.
Last edited:
What is bad in Uefa´s qualification? I don´t think there´s many people in Europe who don´t like it. You know what you have to do, everybody has the same schedule. Tough draw? Okay, that could happen to every team. Therefore you have the safety net with the playoffs.
Messi again. 23 on Ecuador with a weak attempt to move the ball. I also think he was a bit slow to respond on the 1st goal.