2017 Raiders: Vegas baby, Vegas!!!

Gunfighter 09

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Fair enough. This is probably more applicable to the Raiders thread, but you feel they have had a fairly neutral offseason to this point, assuming a Lynch signing?

Edit: you beat me to it

I don't think we can answer this question until after Derek Carr and (hopefully) Gabe Jackson are extended later this spring after free agency and the Vegas vote. If they can get Carr in somewhere between $20-23M / per and Gabe in around $10M, this will be a successful offseason. It would be a bonus if Khalil Mack foolishly signed an extension this year as well, rather than waiting another year for the market to go up.

In terms of what they have done so far:

QB- EJ Manuel is an upgrade on Matt McGloin, but the Raiders probably hope Connor Cook beats him out.

RB Latavius Murray - I liked him, but he was always more talented than good. With two talented second year backs who are excellent receivers who averaged over 5 YPC and a $3.5M very talented fullback, the Raiders really only need a bludgeon back to complete the rotation. Lynch would obviously be optimal, both on the field and at the box office, but they could get by simply drafting someone like Samaje Perrine, Donta Foreman or Jamal Williams and fill the roll cheaply.

OL - They lost Menelik Watson to the Bronocos. I don't think they wanted to lose him, but am certain they didn't want to pay a guys as oft injured as Watson the $5M+ the donkeys gave him. Marshal Newhouse from the Giants is a nice depth signing for cheap (<$2M/per) money and they will probably draft a tackle. I think they like Vadal Alexander, their 7th round pick who filled in at RT last year quite a bit as well. They are also about to have more than $25M in cap room tied up in two guards and a center, so they are going to have to save a bit of money on tackles

WR - I talked about Patterson being a replacement for Holmes in the other thread. Patterson is certainly more talented, but I don't know if you can replace Holmes' 5'10" white guy like grit, effort and intensity.

TE - Jared Cook is a massive upgrade on Mychal Rivera. He mixes great with Lee Smith and Clive Walford.

DL - DT Stacey McGee got big money in Washington, certainly more than the Raiders were willing to pay. I imagine they are waiting out Johnathan Hankins like about ten other teams or might get involved with guys like Oddrick or Sendarick Marks later in FA. I would love to see Chris Long in his dad's old jersey.

LB - LB Malcom Smith is being replaced with talented but injury prone LB Jelani Jenkins from the Dolphins, at much less money. They had Zach Brown in for a few days, and I imagine they will either sign Brown or bring back LB Perry Reilly. 3rd year guy Nerion Ball is also due to come off IR, so they might be a little better at defending the middle of the field this year.

Secondary - They lost DJ Haden and Nate Allen and need to replace both. I don't think they are a Reavis destination, though my avatar worked out great as a converted corner safety and secondary coach Rod Woodson is likely someone Reavis would listen to. They need to draft multiple corners and hope Sean Smith fixes himself.

ST - The Raiders resigned LS John Condo, but lost special teams aces Darren Bates and Brynden Trawick. That is going to hurt, though Reggie McKenzie probably believes he can replace the ST coverage guys at a reasonable price.
 

edmunddantes

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Here's the problem I have with the Raiders upcoming season. How does the season go if it becomes official they are out the door in 2-3 years. I still can't believe they are seriously contemplating continuing to play in Oakland until the new digs would be ready in Vegas.

If we thought the Browns leaving Cleveland turned sour after a half season or so of turmoil, imagine what 2-3 seasons of it would do?

For now, Raider fans can still hold out false hope that they are staying so the worst impacts of an impending move are still being held at bay.

Still one of my favorite teams to watch (outside the Patriots) since Carr and Cooper have come onto the scene.

Hopefully Carr recovers well. They sign him to a nice, but non-crippling contract and the team continues to gel.
 

j-man

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the raiders are the best team in the AFC West

unlees u get 95 Cle

if the raiders can take a 2013 broncos mindset and focus on outscore teams this raiders team couild be in minn for SB 52
 

j-man

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sizeing up oak vs den

QB OAK
RB OAK With lynch DEN without
WR OAK
TE OAK
OL OAK
DL OAK
LB DEN
CB DEN
S DEN
K Oak
p Push
coach Oak for now
 

j-man

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Here's the problem I have with the Raiders upcoming season. How does the season go if it becomes official they are out the door in 2-3 years. I still can't believe they are seriously contemplating continuing to play in Oakland until the new digs would be ready in Vegas.

If we thought the Browns leaving Cleveland turned sour after a half season or so of turmoil, imagine what 2-3 seasons of it would do?

For now, Raider fans can still hold out false hope that they are staying so the worst impacts of an impending move are still being held at bay.

Still one of my favorite teams to watch (outside the Patriots) since Carr and Cooper have come onto the scene.

Hopefully Carr recovers well. They sign him to a nice, but non-crippling contract and the team continues to gel.
the biggest thing that wouild doom oak is del rio vs belichick in a afc tittie game

the best ser is make the Raiders LA team
move the charlegs to SA and the RAMS to lv or STL but will never happten
 

Gunfighter 09

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Six to midnight.

Marshawn Lynch is ready to return to football after a one-year retirement and play in the city where he grew up.

Lynch, who visited the Raiders today, told the team he’s ready to un-retire and play for them this year, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports
My prediction is that, after Lynch and the Raiders agree to a re-negotiated contract, the Raiders send a conditional pick in 18 for Beast Mode. They are likely to have 3 or 4 low round compensatory picks, so giving up a 6 or 7 won't affect them much.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/05/marshawn-lynch-tells-raiders-hes-ready-to-go/
 

DanoooME

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I'd be okay with a 7th for Marshawn at this point. I'd think the Raiders would be happy too if they can even get 80% of the old Beast Mode.
 

Gunfighter 09

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A big part of the Lynch attraction for the Raiders has nothing to do with how much football ability he has left at 31, after a year off. Lynch is a god in the East Bay and would help ease the tension of current incredibly strange situation in Oakland quite a bit. Beast Mode throwing the O to the black hole after scoring a Touchdown against Denver or KC would do more to ease the tensions about the move than anything Mark Davis could say or do. That factor alone makes him worth the cost to the Raiders in terms of cap room or picks.

Personally, I think Jalen Richard is going to be a huge break out star this year, so I wouldn't pick Marshawn in the first 4 or 5 rounds of your fantasy draft if he winds up in Oakland.
 

tims4wins

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I'd be okay with a 7th for Marshawn at this point. I'd think the Raiders would be happy too if they can even get 80% of the old Beast Mode.
Lynch was about 80% of his old self in 2015. He ran for 3.7 YPC. I highly doubt the Raiders would be satisfied with that.
 

DanoooME

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Lynch was about 80% of his old self in 2015. He ran for 3.7 YPC. I highly doubt the Raiders would be satisfied with that.
I was thinking more like 2014 when he was actually healthy all year. And he'd have a much better line to run behind.
 

tims4wins

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I was thinking more like 2014 when he was actually healthy all year. And he'd have a much better line to run behind.
2014 was the 2nd best season of his career. 4.7 YPC (2nd highest of his career), 13 TD (career high), 1,306 yards (2nd highest of his career). If you are saying they'd be happy with 2014 Lynch, well duh. But if you are saying they would be happy with 80% of that then I disagree with you. 80% of that is 3.76 YPC which is exactly his YPC in 2015. I don't think they'd be happy with 2015 Lynch.
 

Gunfighter 09

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They need him to only be slightly better than Latavius Murray last year assuming they get the same or better production from Washington and Richard. Lynch would be playing behind an offensive line that is better than what he had in Seattle from 13-15, and I am comfortable saying the QB and receivers are very close to what he played with on those championship teams. Based on what we saw in 2013-2015 from Beast Mode, you are likely to get a better blocker, equal receiver and even if he was 10-15% worse than that peak, you would still be matching or improving on Murray's production as a runner.

Lynch average from 2013-15, w/ a 15% production reduction:

253 carries / 1176 yards (4.0 YPC) 10.2 TDs 28 Catches on 32 targets 250 yards 2 TDs


Murray 2016
195 carries 788 yards (4.0 YPC) 12 TDs & 33 catches on 43 targets 264 yards 0 TDs

Washington & Richard combined 2016:

170 carries 958 yards (5.63 YPC) 3 TDs & 46 catches on 62 targets 309 yards 2 TDs

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/2016.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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They need him to only be slightly better than Latavius Murray last year assuming they get the same or better production from Washington and Richard. Lynch would be playing behind an offensive line that is better than what he had in Seattle from 13-15, and I am comfortable saying the QB and receivers are very close to what he played with on those championship teams. Based on what we saw in 2013-2015 from Beast Mode, you are likely to get a better blocker, equal receiver and even if he was 10-15% worse than that peak, you would still be matching or improving on Murray's production as a runner.

Lynch average from 2013-15, w/ a 15% production reduction:

253 carries / 1176 yards (4.0 YPC) 10.2 TDs 28 Catches on 32 targets 250 yards 2 TDs


Murray 2016
195 carries 788 yards (4.0 YPC) 12 TDs & 33 catches on 43 targets 264 yards 0 TDs

Washington & Richard combined 2016:

170 carries 958 yards (5.63 YPC) 3 TDs & 46 catches on 62 targets 309 yards 2 TDs

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/2016.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LyncMa00.htm
I dunno, man. Lynch has had 2000 carries, many of them of the bulldozer sort. He had between 280-315 carries for 4 years straight before starting to breakdown. I'm not sure a year off changes the trend. At least, as a Pats fan, I hope not.
 

BigJimEd

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Lynch average from 2013-15, w/ a 15% production reduction:
2012-2014 average with 15% reduction maybe??

2012 was a monster year and 2014 was very good.
But that's several years ago. Worth a look for Raiders but I wouldn't expect much of him at this point.

Still very little downside and plenty of upside if he can get close to those numbers.
 

j-man

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the raiders are the fav in the AFC west but if they have no home field Adv i could see them silp from 11-12 wins to 9-10 wins

mark davis souild had move to san antonio for 2017-2019 and the NFL owners shouild had force him to

the best move for all is to force jed york to share his stadium for 3 years or move all home games to mex city
 

Al Zarilla

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the raiders are the fav in the AFC west but if they have no home field Adv i could see them silp from 11-12 wins to 9-10 wins

mark davis souild had move to san antonio for 2017-2019 and the NFL owners shouild had force him to

the best move for all is to force jed york to share his stadium for 3 years or move all home games to mex city
Wait, the Coliseum provides no home field advantage any more because all of Oakland is disgruntled? Won't most current Raider fans stay with the team when they are in Vegas between long time allegiance, can still see them on TV, social media like we have here, and the occasional short plane ride? I've been 3K miles from Boston for a bazillion years and I'm as fervent Patriots as ever. OK, the Pats never moved, so different there. As for leaving, I can't blame the Raiders for not staying in a crummy, pissy (literally) stadium anyway.
 

koufax32

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Honestly the Raiders would be better off with Blount at like $2M than Lynch, IMO
Wouldn't NE do Blount at $2M though? He's not at Edelman levels of kool aid drinking but he's close. Both situations are time shares as well.

Didn't know if yours was more a throw away line or a real suggestion. Apologies if I jumped all over a non-serious idea.
 

tims4wins

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Wouldn't NE do Blount at $2M though? He's not at Edelman levels of kool aid drinking but he's close. Both situations are time shares as well.

Didn't know if yours was more a throw away line or a real suggestion. Apologies if I jumped all over a non-serious idea.
Well yeah I think NE would bring Blount back at $1.5M or $2M, but maybe Blount wants a change of scenery or more opportunity. Realize he had a ton of carries this year but he may see the writing on the wall. Or maybe he could get say $3M or $4M from the Raiders for one year. The point is that I think the Raiders would be better off with Blount at a lower price than Lynch (assuming Lynch will want $5M+). Even at the same price as Lynch, Blount could be a better option. Far less wear and tear.
 

dbn

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Blount really seems to love the Patriots. Re-watch the SB LI Sound FX the other day if you don't think so.
 

j-man

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Wait, the Coliseum provides no home field advantage any more because all of Oakland is disgruntled? Won't most current Raider fans stay with the team when they are in Vegas between long time allegiance, can still see them on TV, social media like we have here, and the occasional short plane ride? I've been 3K miles from Boston for a bazillion years and I'm as fervent Patriots as ever. OK, the Pats never moved, so different there. As for leaving, I can't blame the Raiders for not staying in a crummy, pissy (literally) stadium anyway.

sure noone can blame oakland for moveing but if they sart only getting 30k 35 k a game they could be plom

i know the raiders have a way bigger fanbase than the olies but they were going to stay in houston utnail 99 and they sold so few tickers that they had to move to memphis for a year than nashvillie

they should had used San Antonio or San diego for 3 years or levi

they only reason they cant use sam boyd is no handicap access and no media space

and its oakland city counial fauit anyway Oakland belongs in LA the LA Rams souild be in san diego and san diego belongs in san antioio and st louis can be the new boogleman where that city can be used to move teams if they do not get a new place
 

edmunddantes

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With rumors out there of $25-27 m/year for Carr... It'll be interesting to see how the Raiders do with their core young talent over the next couple of years. Escalating Salary caps will only help out so much.

Also shows the benefit of slipping to the 2nd round can be very helpful. Gets you a year headstart on the really big money contracts.
 

Gunfighter 09

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With rumors out there of $25-27 m/year for Carr... It'll be interesting to see how the Raiders do with their core young talent over the next couple of years. Escalating Salary caps will only help out so much.

Also shows the benefit of slipping to the 2nd round can be very helpful. Gets you a year headstart on the really big money contracts.


So reading between the lines... 5 years $125 million total, with $69M in the first three years (23M per) and then $28M per in the last two years. The real question is obviously how much is guaranteed and how much is signing bonus vice Reggie McKenzie's preferred pay as you go strategy. It is also very important to see if they rip up 17, or pay a bonus this year and then start the deal in 18.

There are two other key factors in play here. First, Carr will be a Nevada resident in years 4 & 5 of the deal and not be paying the crazy California state income taxes, so backloading helps him. Also, the CBA expires after year 3 or 4 of this deal, so any thing more than 3 or 4 years is a bonus for the Raiders, assuming the next cap will allow for even bigger numbers for star QBs.
 

loshjott

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Here in DC the chatter is about comparable numbers btwn Carr and Cousins and what this means for DC trying to re-sign the latter. If the Washington franchise continues to sink, it's fine by me.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Here in DC the chatter is about comparable numbers btwn Carr and Cousins and what this means for DC trying to re-sign the latter. If the Washington franchise continues to sink, it's fine by me.
I have to imagine the Raiders, Lions & Washington are all hustling to be the first ones done on their new QB deal. The winner if the race is going to save money, and the last team to sign their guy is going to set the new market.

As I mentioned above, years beyond 2020 might be the most important variable in this QB signing race, because the team that gets multiple years past 2020 could be saving huge $ if the players get a bigger share in the new CBA.
 

Gunfighter 09

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I've read on twitter that he will play under the 17 contract, and then the contract years are 18,19,20,21,22. That leaves the Raiders with $30+M in cap room this season. So they are certainly re-upping Gabe Jackson and then will either try and get Mack done on a JJ Watt style extension with a bonus, or roll that $20M+ in cap room over for Mack's deal next year.

Reggie is fucking good at this.
 
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Sox and Rocks

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I expected them to roll this year's salary into the contract for cap reasons (ie, instead of 5 yrs, 125 million it would be 6 years, 126 million, which would lower the aav each year), but I suppose the fact that cap room can be rolled over from year to year effectively does this anyway.

Good for Carr and the Raiders. He's certainly the best young QB in the NFL, and knocking on the door of top 5 QB status (if he isn't already there).
 
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One of the top YOUNG QBs, yes, but knocking on the door of top five overall may be a bridge too far. Off the top of my head and in no particular order:

Brady. Rogers. Roethlisberger. Brees. Ryan. Luck. Rivers. Stafford. Wilson.
 

JohnnyK

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I expected them to roll this year's salary into the contract for cap reasons (ie, instead of 5 yrs, 125 million it would be 6 years, 126 million, which would lower the aav each year)
That would hit them hard this year as you can only split the signing bonus over the first five years of a contract even if the contract itself is longer, so 1/5 of the signing bonus would go onto this year's cap.
 

bsj

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One of the top YOUNG QBs, yes, but knocking on the door of top five overall may be a bridge too far. Off the top of my head and in no particular order:

Brady. Rogers. Roethlisberger. Brees. Ryan. Luck. Rivers. Stafford. Wilson.

I put Carr ahead of Stafford and Rivers on that list without thinking twice.

But point holds, still not top 5....
 

dcmissle

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Here in DC the chatter is about comparable numbers btwn Carr and Cousins and what this means for DC trying to re-sign the latter. If the Washington franchise continues to sink, it's fine by me.
They cost themselves a fortune by dicking around with Cousins. Now we'll see how much. Would not be surprised if Cousins again plays this year to year.
 

Sox and Rocks

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That would hit them hard this year as you can only split the signing bonus over the first five years of a contract even if the contract itself is longer, so 1/5 of the signing bonus would go onto this year's cap.
I didn't realize a signing bonus could only be split over 5 years. Has that always been the case or is it new?

At any rate, according to spotrac, they did roll this years salary into the contract. So it's officially 6 yrs, 126 million, and the signing bonus is 12.5 million, spread evenly over the first 5 years.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/derek-carr-14445/
 
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Sox and Rocks

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One of the top YOUNG QBs, yes, but knocking on the door of top five overall may be a bridge too far. Off the top of my head and in no particular order:

Brady. Rogers. Roethlisberger. Brees. Ryan. Luck. Rivers. Stafford. Wilson.
I'll spot you the first five on that list, but I take carr over the last four, and he's the youngest among that group.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I'll spot you the first five on that list, but I take carr over the last four, and he's the youngest among that group.
Wilson's career ANY/A is almost a full yard higher than Carr's despite the stat penalizing running QBs and Carr having a huge edge in surrounding talent. I'd take Wilson and wouldn't think twice.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Wilson's career ANY/A is almost a full yard higher than Carr's despite the stat penalizing running QBs and Carr having a huge edge in surrounding talent. I'd take Wilson and wouldn't think twice.
I would take Wilson as well, but I think you are seriously underrating Marshawn Lynch in his prime and the massive advantages at HC and Defense that Wilson gets to play with relative to Carr.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I would take Wilson as well, but I think you are seriously underrating Marshawn Lynch in his prime and the massive advantages at HC and Defense that Wilson gets to play with relative to Carr.
I was referring to just offensive talent. Lynch was excellent, but Wilson's mobility also helped open up lanes and the Raiders have successfully invested a ton into WR/OL while the Seahawks have mostly failed there.
 

Gunfighter 09

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@EvilEmpire, did you ever buy that Gabe Jackson jersey?

because if you did, today is a day to celebrate:


This is probably $2-3M less than 26 year old Gabe would have gotten on the open market next spring, but is no bargain.

I like it, though it is an interesting strategy of the Raiders to tie up so much cap in the interior offensive line with Osemele, Hudson and Jackson. Hudson's deal has scaled way back from the balloon payments on the first year, and Osemele's deal will do the same after next year, but they will have around $29M of cap tied up in the interior offensive line in both 18 &19. I think their hope is that by paying tackle whisperer OL coach Mike Tice, they can man the tackle positions effectively on the cheap. They also play with an extra tackle more than any team in the league, so perhaps the prioritization of the G/C positions is tactics based as well. Of note, they let T Menelik Watson go to Denver for around $5.5M per year, half of what they are paying Jackson.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Reggie McKenzie's 1st Round gamble on Gareon Conely has paid off, at least in the legal sense:


The local prosecutor in Cleveland sent the case to a Grand Jury and the charges were declined.

In other news, LT Donald Penn is conducting a hold out to try and get a new deal, which he probably deserves, based on his play last year. The team is not fining him yet, but McKenzie also said he would only negotiate if Penn was in camp. I don't really mind 34 year old Penn missing a few practices, but I hope this works out quickly.
 

Gunfighter 09

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So, ball is in your court Goodell. The Raiders NFL leading three year streak without having a player arrested came to an end when the LA County DA announced that struggling, overpaid CB Sean Smith had been arrested on 4th of July.

Oakland Raiders cornerback Sean Smith -- who signed a $40 million contract last year -- was arrested Thursday and charged with felony assault, TMZ Sports has learned.

Officials say Smith attacked his sister's boyfriend on July 4 -- beat and stomped on his head in Pasadena in the early hours.

He's been charged with felony assault by means of force likely to produce great bodily injury and battery with serious bodily injury.

If convicted, Smith faces up to 7 years in state prison.

It's not Smith's first brush with the law -- he was convicted of DUI stemming from a 2014 car crash in which he smashed into a light pole.

We've reached out to the Raiders for comment -- so far, no word back.

Smith's attorney, Daniel Rosenberg, says Smith maintains his innocence and vows to fight the charges.
:
The challenge for Goodell is this, if it is true:


It will be interesting how Sheriff Goodell, who we know is very, very, very deeply and sincerely concerned with stopping domestic violence, acts in a case where a player beats down a guy specifically because that guy was abusing a woman who is an immediately family relative of the player.
 

Gunfighter 09

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So, two games in, things could not have gone much better for the Raiders.

- A ten point road win over what looks like an above average Titans team
- Destroying the Jets at home like they should
-They lead the NFL in points and margin of victory after two weeks

The defense looks better than last year, with the front 7 much improved against the run and some actual solid play from the secondary. Second year safety Karl Joseph looks like he might be a star.

Of note, here are Derek Carr's numbers from his last 16 starts:

W L Comp Att Y/A Comp % yards TD Int
13 3 378 582 7.1 64.9 4088 32 6


Finally, the Raider running game looks ridiculously good with Lynch, Washington and Richard all looking better than expected and Jamaize Olawale expected to get on the field this week. Adding to that, they have been using Coradelle Patterson as a jack of all trades, with the best example being his 43 yard TD run where he motioned from the slot to a half back position on 3-4 and took a draw play to the house as the really expensive center of the Raiders line (Osemele and Hudson) obliterated a double A gap blitz.
 

j-man

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the raiders are the 2013 broncos and will win 11-12 games but if u play ne even in oak i have to favor NE

the only way i give KC a shot at the west if they beat u twice which wont happen
same thing with denver to be fair so the AFC west will come down to will LAC beat den kc or oak if they go 0-6 the afc west will get 3 teams in