Vazquez to start at C in 2015

[nattysez]

The Cherington-Farrell pressers today are filled with interesting nuggets.  Maybe this was obvious, but I'm excited about Vazquez "officially" getting the nod as the starting C.
 

To clarify on catching situation: Red Sox were speaking of the backup spot, without ruling out return of Ross. Emphasized Vazquez is starter
 

 
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/516633606622814208
 
That said, while I love Vazquez, I'm not sure a guy who'll be lucky to hit .250 can be a long-term solution at C in the American League East.  Of course, the Sox might (a) figure they can carry a lighter-hitting C if they get good offense from the rest of the infield; (b) not want to block Swihart with another C; and (c) hope/expect Vazquez to hit better in the future.
 
 

 

[Adrian's Dome]

They're hoping Swihart forces the issue, in which case they can make Vasquez the backup.

 

[foulkehampshire]

They're hoping Swihart forces the issue, in which case they can make Vasquez the backup.

 
I'd rather Vazquez hit well and bring back some trade value when/if Swihart forces the issue.

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

 I'm not sure a guy who'll be lucky to hit .250 can be a long-term solution at C in the American League East.  

 
If he is able to hit .250, his value defensively will make him almost irreplaceable, and a potential perennial All-Star.
 
I don't know how well Swihart profiles defensively, but what will he have to hit to supplant a .250 hitting Vazquez as the starter?
 
My mouth is watering. We've never had such good catching prospects.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They're saying is that they aren't going to be shopping for a catcher that can carry a starter's load.  There's no doubt they're counting on Vazquez to do that, offense be damned (though I think they think he's going to improve in that department), or that Swihart will push his way into the equation.  Either way, any free agent they may bring in has to be expendable.  Wouldn't shock me at all if they just re-sign Ross and be done with it.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Its not hard to imagine Vasquez improving at least marginally with the bat, given his track record of making leaps when repeating levels and his relatively low .283 BABIP.  If he maintains his K and BB rates, improves that BABIP by 10-15 points, and recovers a little bit of power (say, bumps that .069 ISO up to the low .100s) now that he's more comfortable, that's a pretty decent MLB player when combined with his defense.

 

[touchstone033]

 
If he is able to hit .250, his value defensively will make him almost irreplaceable, and a potential perennial All-Star.
 
I don't know how well Swihart profiles defensively, but what will he have to hit to supplant a .250 hitting Vazquez as the starter?
 
My mouth is watering. We've never had such good catching prospects.

 
This. By all accounts, Vazquez' defense is elite. And if you buy the effect of pitch framing, he could be the team MVP with a .250 batting average. If Vazquez starts hitting -- even at a league average rate -- it's Swihart they should be shopping.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Vazquez had a WAA of 0.4. There were only 4 teams in the AL with WAA of 0.5 or better from the catching position for the year, none in the AL East. Granted that is the average of everyone who saw time behind the dish, but still my point is that when you have a defensive catcher who threw out 52% of the runners trying to steal, if he hits "average" in comparison to other catchers in the league, its a go. If Swihart shows up with more O and they work out some platoon, then all the better. 

 

[Detts]

 
If he is able to hit .250, his value defensively will make him almost irreplaceable, and a potential perennial All-Star.
 
I don't know how well Swihart profiles defensively, but what will he have to hit to supplant a .250 hitting Vazquez as the starter?
 
My mouth is watering. We've never had such good catching prospects.

 
Swihart is a switch hitting catcher with plus bat speed.  He is still filling out, but the hit tool and power potential is there.
 
Defensively he is average to plus with a plus arm.  
 
Having these two guys and trying to figure out who starts is a really, really good problem to have.

 

[gryoung]

 
This. By all accounts, Vazquez' defense is elite. And if you buy the effect of pitch framing, he could be the team MVP with a .250 batting average. If Vazquez starts hitting -- even at a league average rate -- it's Swihart they should be shopping.

 
Don't sell Swihart short on defense.  His percentage of throwing out runners at AA was high, although I have no idea how his game management is.  His offense is a significant upside over Vasquez.  Neither one should be shopped in the offseason in my opinion.  What a nice problem to have.

 

[Super Nomario]

The .250 BA stuff is misleading, because Vazquez' other hitting skills are so poor. His secondary average this year was .177. A .250 BA with a .177 SecA is more like a .225 hitter. I hope he can be better than this with the bat. Ideally they'd bring in a veteran who could be the bigger side of a platoon if CV has a JBJ-esque 2015, but it's not easy to find those guys, and probably even more difficult to convince them to be the smaller half of a platoon. Either way, I'm not sure why they're making this decision in late September; if a decent catcher becomes available at a reasonable price in the offseason, it would be pretty dumb to pass on him just because they publicly promised Vazquez the starting gig.

 

[TheYaz67]

 
That said, while I love Vazquez, I'm not sure a guy who'll be lucky to hit .250 can be a long-term solution at C in the American League East. 
 

 
Well, yes and no - here are the AL East Catchers who got the most PA for each team:
 
Jays - Navarro:  .274
Yanks - McCann:  .232
Rays - Hannigan:  .218
O's - Joseph:  .207
 
Even if you want to count Wieters for Baltimore (injured this year), he has a career .257 batting average, so these days .250 is nothing to sneeze at from that position.....

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The .250 BA stuff is misleading, because Vazquez' other hitting skills are so poor. His secondary average this year was .177. A .250 BA with a .177 SecA is more like a .225 hitter. I hope he can be better than this with the bat. Ideally they'd bring in a veteran who could be the bigger side of a platoon if CV has a JBJ-esque 2015, but it's not easy to find those guys, and probably even more difficult to convince them to be the smaller half of a platoon. Either way, I'm not sure why they're making this decision in late September; if a decent catcher becomes available at a reasonable price in the offseason, it would be pretty dumb to pass on him just because they publicly promised Vazquez the starting gig.

I'm sure Ben is well ahead of the curve and recognizes a couple things. One, no decent reasonably priced catcher will be available who will be a significant upgrade. And two, it's more about 2016 and beyond with Swihart presumably ready. We wouldn't want to be locked into a McCann-like deal next winter when Swihart (and/or Vazquez) are ready in-house.

 

[Harry Hooper]

if a decent catcher becomes available at a reasonable price in the offseason, it would be pretty dumb to pass on him just because they publicly promised Vazquez the starting gig.

 
 
I wouldn't worry about anything uttered today being etched in stone. If anything, there could be some misdirection in the mix.

 

[ehaz]

Atlanta is supposedly looking to trade Evan Gattis.  I don't know what the price would be but a career .487 SLG is nothing to sneeze at, and perhaps if the outfield situation gets resolved via trade there would be enough at bats between DH, LF and C for him.

 

[Kliq]

Vazquez is very similar to JBJ, in that his defense is so good that he really only needs to improve marginally on offense to justify himself being a long-term starter for the Sox. He is probably a bit further along than JBJ is (where does JBJ sign up to hit .240?) and he plays at a position where defense is put more at a premium. If he can just hit .260 and eek out 25 doubles, then that is a hell of a player, and I don't think it is unreasonable to project him to reach those goals. He also finished the season strong, finishing with a 1.037 OPS over the alst two weeks, and hit .274 for the entire month of September.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Atlanta is supposedly looking to trade Evan Gattis.  I don't know what the price would be but a career .487 SLG is nothing to sneeze at, and perhaps if the outfield situation gets resolved via trade there would be enough at bats between DH, LF and C for him.

 
His late season fades are pretty epic.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=gattiev01&year=Career&t=b#month::none

 

[koufax37]

 
That said, while I love Vazquez, I'm not sure a guy who'll be lucky to hit .250 can be a long-term solution at C in the American League East.  Of course, the Sox might (a) figure they can carry a lighter-hitting C if they get good offense from the rest of the infield; (b) not want to block Swihart with another C; and (c) hope/expect Vazquez to hit better in the future.
 

 
Fascinating.  What is this "batting average" statistic you refer to?
 
Joking aside, whether he is "lighter-hitting" or not remains to be seen.
 
He continues to have Yadier reasonable comps offensively. While that might not be predictive, Vazquez just wrapped up a 23 year old debut with a 75 OPS+ in 201 PAs.  Yadi debuted with a 78 OPS+ in 151 ABs as a 21 year old, then followed that up with as a 22 year old with a 70 OPS+ in 421 PAs.
 
Even with a 572 to 0 MLB AB edge heading into his year 23 season compared to Vazquez, Yadi put up a horrible 53 OPS+ over 461 PAs, fueled by punchless .274 OBP.  He followed up with four straight seasons of average or worse offense (to go with his gold gloves), before finally turning the corner as a 28 year old.
 
So I think that there is some hope for Vazquez's bat to develop despite his lack of production in his debut.
 
Even Ivan Rodriguez who debuted at 19, didn't have a 100 game with over 100 OPS+ season until his age 24 season (although two seasons just missed these arbitrary rounded cutoffs), which was actually after he already won two silver sluggers and four gold gloves.
 
I think the most likely scenario is still for Swihart to develop as a better hitter and take over as the #1 at some point, but I don't think that is set in stone yet, and depends on how each develops offensively and how their defensive contributions can be projected and eventually measured as sample sizes increase.
 
I'm happy entering 2015 with Vazquez + Ross, even though both being RHB you can't matchup protect Ross as much as you would like to maximize his offensive value, and 37 passing to 38 is a pretty big deal for a catcher.  But mostly I'm really excited to have two exceptional young catchers and excited to see which one develops the best and which one becomes the long term backup.  If both exceed expectations, then we are in a situation to trade one in a couple years, but otherwise let Swihart get his triple-A ABs in 2015 and see who earns the #1 slot in the 2016 catching tandem.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He continues to have Yadier reasonable comps offensively. While that might not be predictive, Vazquez just wrapped up a 23 year old debut with a 75 OPS+ in 201 PAs.  Yadi debuted with a 78 OPS+ in 151 ABs as a 21 year old, then followed that up with as a 22 year old with a 70 OPS+ in 421 PAs.
 
Even with a 572 to 0 MLB AB edge heading into his year 23 season compared to Vazquez, Yadi put up a horrible 53 OPS+ over 461 PAs, fueled by punchless .274 OBP.  He followed up with four straight seasons of average or worse offense (to go with his gold gloves), before finally turning the corner as a 28 year old.
 
So I think that there is some hope for Vazquez's bat to develop despite his lack of production in his debut.
 
Even Ivan Rodriguez who debuted at 19, didn't have a 100 game with over 100 OPS+ season until his age 24 season (although two seasons just missed these arbitrary rounded cutoffs), which was actually after he already won two silver sluggers and four gold gloves.
 

This would be an interesting study of 100+ players with elite defensive skills who entered the bigs as offensive albatrosses. Off the top of my head it seems that these guys like Yadi, Vizquel and Ozzie took 3-4 years to become serviceable with the bat, I recall Bordick took a little longer while guys like Pettis never really improved their hitting skill but he stuck around due to his ability to walk despite pitchers not having to pitch to the corners against him (which amazes me at how well he was able to do this).

JBJ, Vazquez and Marrero certainly fall into this camp while Ben wasn't willing to wait for Iglesias. It's difficult for a perennial contender to be patient with players like this.

 

[nighthob]

I'm sure Ben is well ahead of the curve and recognizes a couple things. One, no decent reasonably priced catcher will be available who will be a significant upgrade. And two, it's more about 2016 and beyond with Swihart presumably ready. We wouldn't want to be locked into a McCann-like deal next winter when Swihart (and/or Vazquez) are ready in-house.

I agree with this, and, eventually, once Ortiz retires (after 2016?) it becomes much less of a problem as they can let Swihart take a lot of games as the DH to keep his knees fresh and his bat in the lineup.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I agree with this, and, eventually, once Ortiz retires (after 2016?) it becomes much less of a problem as they can let Swihart take a lot of games as the DH to keep his knees fresh and his bat in the lineup.

Swihart is going to hit well enough to replace Ortiz? OK, I know, nobody can, or will. It's going to be weird though having a "normal" hitter at DH instead of Ortiz.

 

[lexrageorge]

This would be an interesting study of 100+ players with elite defensive skills who entered the bigs as offensive albatrosses. Off the top of my head it seems that these guys like Yadi, Vizquel and Ozzie took 3-4 years to become serviceable with the bat, I recall Bordick took a little longer while guys like Pettis never really improved their hitting skill but he stuck around due to his ability to walk despite pitchers not having to pitch to the corners against him (which amazes me at how well he was able to do this).

JBJ, Vazquez and Marrero certainly fall into this camp while Ben wasn't willing to wait for Iglesias. It's difficult for a perennial contender to be patient with players like this.

It's important to note that with respect to Iglesias, the Sox had a healthy Stephen Drew available at reasonable cost in 2013.  They also had Bogaerts rising through the system at the same time.  Similarly, in 2015 there may be several alternatives to JBJ in Betts, Castillo, and maybe even a healthy Victorino (all of this pending trades, of course).  
 
As of today, it's hard to see any feasible alternatives to Vazquez.   Also, a team can live with less offense from the catcher position, even in the AL East (assuming that the player hits better than NL pitchers).  David Ross had a career OBP of 0.318, which is only 10 points higher than that of Vazquez this season.  It's much harder to live with a 0.531 OPS from the CF position.  
 
As for Marrero, it doesn't make much sense to give up on a guy after only 202 plate appearances in AAA.  I don't think it hurts anyone if he spends all of 2015 with the PawSox.  

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Gut feeling, but I think the kids going to hit and hit well next year. I'm very interested to see how his power develops.
 
Edit: Vazquez.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Gut feeling, but I think the kids going to hit and hit well next year. I'm very interested to see how his power develops.
 
Edit: Vazquez.

 
I guess I have a good feeling too.  I think you have to judge his 2014 in the big leagues in context -- only 274 AAA at bats is pretty low before being elevated.  Most teams don't trade their starting catcher in the middle of the year to bring up a guy with that little minor league experience, and I thought he handled it really well.  Plus, he's not a guy who was up and down all year -- he played regularly both in AAA and MLB, so at least there's some evidence about whether this is a guy who can take the wear and tear of a full season.  The way the season worked out for him, he ended up catching over 110 games between AAA and MLB, and his September hitting splits were better than July or August.

 

[iayork]

I ran a quick look at catcher batting (as a percent of peak batting) vs age.  I was sort of expecting to see that catcher offense develops later than for most players, but it doesn't look as if that's necessarily true.
 

Spoiler

 
This is since 1950, limited to at least 150 at-bats per season, and playing at least 150 innings a season at C (but not just looking at the output while at C).  Catcher offense tends to peak at around 26, same as other players, but the falloff from peak may be a little more gradual.
 
23-year-old catchers (like 23-year-old players in general) average about 85% of their peak offensive performance.  The error bars are pretty big, so this isn't something you can put in the bag, but there's at least a hint that Vazquez will hit better over the next few years.  

 

[koufax37]

This would be an interesting study of 100+ players with elite defensive skills who entered the bigs as offensive albatrosses. Off the top of my head it seems that these guys like Yadi, Vizquel and Ozzie took 3-4 years to become serviceable with the bat, I recall Bordick took a little longer while guys like Pettis never really improved their hitting skill but he stuck around due to his ability to walk despite pitchers not having to pitch to the corners against him (which amazes me at how well he was able to do this).

JBJ, Vazquez and Marrero certainly fall into this camp while Ben wasn't willing to wait for Iglesias. It's difficult for a perennial contender to be patient with players like this.

 
Yes, I agree.  I cherry picked around based on my eyeballs, but it would be interesting to chart guys who had the elite gloves (and generally corresponding hand eye coordination and fast twitch muscles) to get a chance to stay in the lineup at a young age despite below average offense, and how they developed.
 
There certainly is a rush to get to slightly below average offense rather than wallowing in the Rey Ordonez land where even an incredible glove can't cover up for a 59 OPS+ over 3400 plate appearances.
 
A couple more cherry picked examples:
 
Ozzie Smith didn't break the 85 OPS+ mark until his age 28 season, and had two abysmal years mixed in.
Vizquel did get to 95 OPS+ twice before turning 30, but also had six sub 80 seasons.
 
Catcher is a little bit different, so I would be curious to try to figure out what reasonable measures for such a study would be.  Defining elite glove in sub-25 seasons with well below average offense, and how the 26-30 and 31-35 offensive production periods ended up.

 

[jscola85]

Vazquez is also fairly young to be getting a full-time catching job.  Most guys can't attain that until 26-28.
 
The reality is he might be worth 3-4 wins next year even if he goes out and repeates his .240/.310/.310 line, because his defense is just that good.  There's still plenty to learn about pitch framing, but StatCorner has him worth 12 runs above average this year.  Combined with the 0.7 fWAR / 1.1 bWAR he produced in just 200 PAs and you have a pretty damn good player.  If he got 450 PAs next year (~110 games), that would suggest he'd put up a 4-4.5 WAR season.  Again, a lot of that is purely tied up in pitch-framing [insert Plympton tirade about defensive metrics in relation to JBJ here], but to me, the eye test suggests he could/should be the best defensive catcher in the AL next year.

 

[nighthob]

Swihart is going to hit well enough to replace Ortiz? OK, I know, nobody can, or will. It's going to be weird though having a "normal" hitter at DH instead of Ortiz.

Believe me, I'm going to miss Ortiz when he's gone. He's probably the GOAT as far as DHs go, and it will be weird when the Ortiz era comes to an end.

But looking at the upper minor rosters it would seem that they might be better off rotating guys through the DH spot. And if Swihart continues to rake, I'd think the goal would be to have him in the lineup 162 games rather than 120-130. And to keep those legs fresh so that he can continue raking.

 

[Stanley Steamer]

Vazquez is also fairly young to be getting a full-time catching job.  Most guys can't attain that until 26-28.
 
The reality is he might be worth 3-4 wins next year even if he goes out and repeates his .240/.310/.310 line, because his defense is just that good.  There's still plenty to learn about pitch framing, but StatCorner has him worth 12 runs above average this year.  Combined with the 0.7 fWAR / 1.1 bWAR he produced in just 200 PAs and you have a pretty damn good player.  If he got 450 PAs next year (~110 games), that would suggest he'd put up a 4-4.5 WAR season.  Again, a lot of that is purely tied up in pitch-framing [insert Plympton tirade about defensive metrics in relation to JBJ here], but to me, the eye test suggests he could/should be the best defensive catcher in the AL next year.

As someone who only gets to watch the Sox now and then, and lacks the rigor for statistical argument, I agree he passes the eye test. He appears strong and confident, ready to be a team leader, and has all the defensive traits you are looking for. I like the fact the Sox gave him almost all the PT down the stretch, and are telling anyone who wants to know that he is the guy going forward. I think he will be, regardless of what Swihart does. If Swihart continues to hit, they can and will find a place for his bat in the lineup. But Vazquez is already elite defensively, and it's unlikely anyone else in the system can improve on that. It will be interesting to see what the team wants to do with the back-up role. Ross or a flyer for one more year? Giving back-up catcher at bats, combined with DH and 1B, may be enough for Swihart in 2016, if not the latter part of next season.
It's clear the team has moved to try to beef up it's offense in the future, with the Cuban connection. The question remains how much offense they can sacrifice in certain positions, yet still score enough to compete. I would argue that Vazquez' situation trumps that of JBJ. They hope they can work through JBJ's growing pains, but they fully intend to work through CV's.

 

[bellowthecat]

I am a little surprised that Vazquez is going to play winter ball.  He got into 121 games this year between in AAA and MLB so I thought they'd let him rest up after the season, but I guess not.
 
Personally I am encouraged by the results he's had at the plate so far.  A 71 wRC+ isn't great, but it certainly isn't bad when you consider the .283 BABIP, 9.5 BB%, 16.4 K%, and 5.6 SwStr%.  The peripherals are solid for a rookie.  I expect the walk rate to come down as pitchers attack the zone against him more, but if adds even a couple more home runs or some points to the BABIP it shouldn't effect him that much.  I see a pretty decent offensive floor for this guy and I even think his ceiling may include more pop than he's shown in his career thus far.

 

[ivanvamp]

Believe me, I'm going to miss Ortiz when he's gone. He's probably the GOAT as far as DHs go, and it will be weird when the Ortiz era comes to an end.

But looking at the upper minor rosters it would seem that they might be better off rotating guys through the DH spot. And if Swihart continues to rake, I'd think the goal would be to have him in the lineup 162 games rather than 120-130. And to keep those legs fresh so that he can continue raking.

 
I think this has to be the plan moving forward.  Rotating DH allows them to add positional flexibility, get more guys more ABs, and help ward off injuries.  Unless you have a dominant bat that you have to put there, this is the way to go.

 

[syoo8]

This whole discussion about Vazquez being the starting catcher makes me wonder about what kind of metrics the Sox FO is using to determine value.  Cherington's joke about catcher framing at the Sabermetrics Seminar http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85120-leveling-up-what-i-learned-at-the-sabermetrics-scouting-and-the-science-of-baseball-seminar/?p=5594371 leads me to believe that he's super valuable to the team regardless of a 71 wRC+ for '14.

 

[brandonchristensen]

If Merrero gets on the fast track, and JBJ learned how to hit, we'd have Vazquez/Pedey/Merrero/JBJ up the middle. That'd be some defensive clout.

 

[alwyn96]

This whole discussion about Vazquez being the starting catcher makes me wonder about what kind of metrics the Sox FO is using to determine value.  Cherington's joke about catcher framing at the Sabermetrics Seminar http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85120-leveling-up-what-i-learned-at-the-sabermetrics-scouting-and-the-science-of-baseball-seminar/?p=5594371 leads me to believe that he's super valuable to the team regardless of a 71 wRC+ for '14.

 
I'm willing to believe that Vazquez is an awesome framer - he certainly looks good to my eye - although the flip side of that is that it means Red Sox pitchers were even worse than they appeared to be over the last half of the season, despite the extra help they got from a larger strikezone. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

With a lot of his value in framing, you have to hope they don't start using computers to call balls and strikes anytime in the near future, especially since it would probably speed up the game a little.

 

[EricFeczko]

With a lot of his value in framing, you have to hope they don't start using computers to call balls and strikes anytime in the near future, especially since it would probably speed up the game a little.

I can understand implementing computers to ensure the reliability of the strike zone, but how would it speed up the game?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I can understand implementing computers to ensure the reliability of the strike zone, but how would it speed up the game?

Probably a reach, but there would be less whining about balls and strikes from the players. Seems it woild improve game flow at the very least. Watching a giy like Youks over the years bitch about every call gets tiresome.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Probably a reach, but there would be less whining about balls and strikes from the players. Seems it woild improve game flow at the very least. Watching a giy like Youks over the years bitch about every call gets tiresome.

Well the latest information that the strikezone has increased about 20% in the PitchFX era would seem to indicate that the "official" stikezone is bigger than the de facto one. More strikes = faster games

 

[Fireball Fred]

Vazquez came up quickly through AAA to the majors, and is clearly a plus player defensively. The "if only he hits .250" thing is nonsense, since (a) it's BA, and (b) he hit .240 as a rookie, so he's likely (or at least not unlikely) to hit .250. Paired with the classic LHH backup, he's a good bet for '15. The pitching staff will need all the help they can get, and the Sox won't make a multi year investment in the position with Swihart coming.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Probably a reach, but there would be less whining about balls and strikes from the players. Seems it woild improve game flow at the very least. Watching a giy like Youks over the years bitch about every call gets tiresome.

I'm gonna go with that being a reach.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

 
I'm willing to believe that Vazquez is an awesome framer - he certainly looks good to my eye - although the flip side of that is that it means Red Sox pitchers were even worse than they appeared to be over the last half of the season, despite the extra help they got from a larger strikezone. 

Wait.... what pitchers?  Pretty much a whole different staff... pre-purge and post purge.  I don't know how someone could even compare Sox pitching like this.

 

[alwyn96]

Wait.... what pitchers?  Pretty much a whole different staff... pre-purge and post purge.  I don't know how someone could even compare Sox pitching like this.

 
Oh, I wasn't comparing individual pitchers pre-Vazquez to post-Vazquez, just commenting on how bad the Red Sox staff was in general. If you assume that Vazquez is way better at framing than an average catcher, then you might say that he is making the staff's stats appear better than they actually are, and that the pitchers working with the an average defensive catcher would have worse results. It's just a logical thought exercise. No actual data analysis required.
 
The younger guys were much more disappointing as a group than I expected, and would have been even worse if a merely average defensive catcher were behind the plate. I had hoped at least one new pitcher would have stood out as someone interesting, at least in their peripherals if not results, but that didn't really happen, despite Vazquez' assistance.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Vazquez came up quickly through AAA to the majors, and is clearly a plus player defensively. The "if only he hits .250" thing is nonsense, since (a) it's BA, and (b) he hit .240 as a rookie, so he's likely (or at least not unlikely) to hit .250. Paired with the classic LHH backup, he's a good bet for '15. The pitching staff will need all the help they can get, and the Sox won't make a multi year investment in the position with Swihart coming.

The Red Sox don't usually platoon catchers that way. There is usually either a "personal catcher" (Lester) or "day game after night game" catcher.

 

[jscola85]

My guess is that Vazquez, assuming good health, will get a chance to catch 110-120 games next year.  That suggests using a guy like Ross to be a personal caddy for one starter and then also getting a couple extra days here and there if Vazquez gets nicked up, catches an extra-inning game, or has a day-game-after-night-game setup.

 

[iayork]

As always, there's nothing new in here, but I was playing with pitch framing using PitchFX and compared Vazquez vs. Pierzynski (in Boston) this year.  More details on how I calculated the numbers are here.
 
Bottom line, I estimated that Vazquez gained about 1.3 extra strikes per game over AJ by extending the strike zone, while Pierzynski lost a further 0.5 strikes per game by giving up called balls that were actually in the strike zone, so that Vazquez gained his pitchers about 1.8 extra strikes per game over AJ. 
 
Here are called strikes for each of them.  The charts show three strike zones: the Strike Zone Classic (solid blue), as called around 2008ish; the larger 2014 strike zone (dashed blue); and the AJ Zone (dashed green, the largest zone) -- the de facto strike zone for Pierzynski, based on there furthest-out pitches he ever got called strikes.  

Spoiler

The larger zone for Vazquez is especially obvious for RHB, where Vaz pushes the bottom of the zone quite a bit further down than did AJ. Overall, 26.1% of the called strikes for Vazquez were out of the 2014 strike zone, while only 21.3% of Pierzynski’s were.
 
Here's the converse. For Vazquez, 3.77% of the balls called on him were actually in the (2014) strike zone, while 5.68% of the balls called on Pierzynski were actually strikes:

Spoiler

 
On average, Vazquez gained 0.024 extra strikes per called pitch compared to Pierzynski.  If Pierzynski was an average framing catcher, that would put Vazquez well into the ultra-elite (Jose Molina) range.  Pierzynski isn't average, so it's not a fair comparison, but it matches up with the eyeball test pretty well.  
 
Like I say, this is stuff everyone already knows, but there it is anyway. 

 

[nvalvo]

Swihart is going to hit well enough to replace Ortiz? OK, I know, nobody can, or will. It's going to be weird though having a "normal" hitter at DH instead of Ortiz.

 
.293/.341/.487 across AA/AAA as a 22 year old is a pretty good line for a prospect regardless of position. Adjusted for league and run environment (PCL late 1990s to IL 2014), it actually compares quite well to a young Ortiz, although David was a few months younger relative to level. That's the line of a middle of the order bat. 
 
As a line for a catcher who looks like he can stick... look out. 

 

[seantoo]

The Cherington-Farrell pressers today are filled with interesting nuggets.  Maybe this was obvious, but I'm excited about Vazquez "officially" getting the nod as the starting C.
 
 
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/516633606622814208
 
That said, while I love Vazquez, I'm not sure a guy who'll be lucky to hit .250 can be a long-term solution at C in the American League East.  Of course, the Sox might (a) figure they can carry a lighter-hitting C if they get good offense from the rest of the infield; (b) not want to block Swihart with another C; and (c) hope/expect Vazquez to hit better in the future.
 
 

IF the average 2014 AL catcher hit 240/300/373 then why does Vazquez need to be lucky to reach .250 to be a long term selection at C in the ALE? 
In his first exposure to MLB he hit 240/307/309, albeit in a limited sample. He was an average hitting Catcher, above average getting on base and below average for power. H[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]e has a track record of struggling at new levels as do many prospects but then figuring it out. He has answered his critics with his ability to hit by posting a 287/375/391 in 2013 almost entirely in AA and 279/336/385 last year in Pawtucket. But fans keep reading old scouting reports and therefore the perception lags behind the reality. He debuted at 23 ahead of projections and will be 24 through most of next season. I think we should expect him to be an average hitting AL catcher because the bar is set so low and I think during his peak years he'll be better than that too.[/SIZE]

 

[Drek717]

IF the average 2014 AL catcher hit 240/300/373 then why does Vazquez need to be lucky to reach .250 to be a long term selection at C in the ALE? 
In his first exposure to MLB he hit 240/307/309, albeit in a limited sample. He was an average hitting Catcher, above average getting on base and below average for power. H[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]e has a track record of struggling at new levels as do many prospects but then figuring it out. He has answered his critics with his ability to hit by posting a 287/375/391 in 2013 almost entirely in AA and 279/336/385 last year in Pawtucket. But fans keep reading old scouting reports and therefore the perception lags behind the reality. He debuted at 23 ahead of projections and will be 24 through most of next season. I think we should expect him to be an average hitting AL catcher because the bar is set so low and I think during his peak years he'll be better than that too.[/SIZE]

He also had a .283 BABIP at the ML level last year.  Throughout his minor league career he's consistently sported a .316-.340 BABIP, and by that I mean he's never had a significant sample size below .316 since his first shot at full season baseball in 2010.  The one too small to care sample where he did was 82 PAs in 2012 when he made the jump from A+ to AA.  His ML sample also had a .069 ISO, while throughout the minors he was consistently >.100, which passes the eye test as Christian put the screws to a lot of balls that went straight at people.
 
While his 2014 AAA season saw his  highest BABIP  yet, .340, it also saw a significant drop in BB% from his entire career and a significant bump in K% as compared to AA, so it wasn't all positive trends making pretty numbers, there were some negative trends he still out-hit to be productive, and likely would have improved upon had he gotten a full season of AAA instead of effectively half there and half in the bigs.
 
Steamer projects him for a line of .257/.321/.360 with a BABIP of .296 and ISO of .103.  Those are all pretty realistic when based on his mL trends.  If he does something close to that next season along with his defense he's an above average catcher.  One more step forward and he's a borderline all-star.  If he develops a little more pull power towards the monster?  Swihart gets to learn a second position and keep those knees fresh.

 

[InsideTheParker]

As far as I can remember, Jon Lester never threw to Vazquez. I wonder if there has been any discussion of Jon's preferences in that regard. I believe he wanted to throw to Ross mostly to avoid AJP, but I could have just jumped to that conclusion.