Two-Way Lin?

curly2

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Alas I suspect a .600 BABIP may be too much to hope for going forward.
Obviously it is, but one of the outs was a 400-foot blast against the wind that was the first ball I've ever seen caught in the triangle for a right fielder.

He looks like a nice backup who can play good defense at short and be a solid utility player. That's a nice player to have.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Obviously it is, but one of the outs was a 400-foot blast against the wind that was the first ball I've ever seen caught in the triangle for a right fielder.

He looks like a nice backup who can play good defense at short and be a solid utility player. That's a nice player to have.
Not only is Lin a nice player to have on the bench, but I’m coming around on him being a legitimate potential successor to Bogaerts in a way I did not expect.

I had been thinking that the Sox absolutely needed to sign Bogaerts as a free agent after next season, but it looks possible that Lin could replace most of Bogaerts’ OBP capability with the bat, and more than expected amount of his SLG, while providing better defense. It’s quite a surprising turn, given Lin’s hitting struggles in the low-minors.

While I don’t think Lin will ever be a great threat at the top of the order the way Bogaerts has been in years past, it’s possible that if the Sox only have the money to sign two of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts to market rate deals, the presence of Lin as a legitimate MLB SS option makes Xander the most easily replaceable.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Not only is Lin a nice player to have on the bench, but I’m coming around on him being a legitimate potential successor to Bogaerts in a way I did not expect.

I had been thinking that the Sox absolutely needed to sign Bogaerts as a free agent after next season, but it looks possible that Lin could replace most of Bogaerts’ OBP capability with the bat, and more than expected amount of his SLG, while providing better defense. It’s quite a surprising turn, given Lin’s hitting struggles in the low-minors.

While I don’t think Lin will ever be a great threat at the top of the order the way Bogaerts has been in years past, it’s possible that if the Sox only have the money to sign two of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts to market rate deals, the presence of Lin as a legitimate MLB SS option makes Xander the most easily replaceable.
Wait a tick, a week ago before his injury X was an irreplaceable MVP-candidate and now with one week of BABIP-fueled hitting we can afford to replace him with someone projected majorly to be a glove-only utility guy?

Come on now. Bogaerts isn't as valuable as Betts or Sale, but in no way is he getting replaced by Lin.
 

Al Zarilla

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Not only is Lin a nice player to have on the bench, but I’m coming around on him being a legitimate potential successor to Bogaerts in a way I did not expect.

I had been thinking that the Sox absolutely needed to sign Bogaerts as a free agent after next season, but it looks possible that Lin could replace most of Bogaerts’ OBP capability with the bat, and more than expected amount of his SLG, while providing better defense. It’s quite a surprising turn, given Lin’s hitting struggles in the low-minors.

While I don’t think Lin will ever be a great threat at the top of the order the way Bogaerts has been in years past, it’s possible that if the Sox only have the money to sign two of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts to market rate deals, the presence of Lin as a legitimate MLB SS option makes Xander the most easily replaceable.
Lin showed very little power in the minors, although he did pick it up last year. Still, replacing Bogaerts:
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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You guys did read my post, right? Lin has shown himself to have an MLB-ready glove at short, and he can hit his way out of a paper bag, based on his limited hitting stats from last year and this.

Those things mean he could replace Bogaerts in the field, while hitting in the lower third of the lineup. That doesn’t mean he is completely replacing the offensive production of Bogaerts, but it does mean re-signing Xander as a FA is less crucial than resigning Betts and (potentially) Sale.
 

shaggydog2000

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You guys did read my post, right? Lin has shown himself to have an MLB-ready glove at short, and he can hit his way out of a paper bag, based on his limited hitting stats from last year and this.

Those things mean he could replace Bogaerts in the field, while hitting in the lower third of the lineup. That doesn’t mean he is completely replacing the offensive production of Bogaerts, but it does mean re-signing Xander as a FA is less crucial than resigning Betts and (potentially) Sale.
After 80 AB across two seasons, the only thing we can be sure of with Lin is that he has a pulse.

The error bars on that sample size are huge.
 

Maximus

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I'm not anti-Holt, given his utility and given that no one should be judged on so few at bats (including Lin), BUT...

Lin's defense seems so far superior that he needs to be the Designated Marrero when Pedroia returns. Correct me if I'm wrong, but between Lin and Nunez, 4-5-6 is covered. Swihart and Martinez can cover Left Field with one of the B's filling in for the other in CF or RF.

Where does that leave Holt vs. Lin?
  • They're both LHH's, which is a need on this team - still
  • Neither is ever being used for their bat, unless they PH in interleague or for one of the catchers (doubtful)
  • Lin had 23 SB's in 2015 (only 10 in 2017) but is seemingly a better PR candidate than Holt.
  • Late defense is definitely an issue with Devers at 3B and Pedroia being handled carefully (not to mention Bogaerts, who I still think can be a + defender)
Even though it appears that Holt is a well-liked character in the clubhouse and he's a player with a lot of big league experience - if they need to choose 2 of Nunez, Lin, Holt...wouldn't Lin be the logical long term choice?

Perhaps injuries will make this issue irrelevant.
Holt should have been traded prior to the season. He is not worth his salary for a below average utility player. Once Pedey comes back, the 2B/SS/3B bench should be Nunez and Lin. Blake and JDM can back up the OF. DD should be to find a taker for Holt in the NL where he would potentially be more useful. Lin has a good eye and plays solid D.
 

Cesar Crespo

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After 80 AB across two seasons, the only thing we can be sure of with Lin is that he has a pulse.

The error bars on that sample size are huge.
In the hypothetical Lin is competent with the bat, I think the player he replaces plays 2b anyway. Lin can easily get 400-450 AB the next few years playing 2b, 3b, SS and all 3 OF positions until that time comes.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Holt should have been traded prior to the season. He is not worth his salary for a below average utility player. Once Pedey comes back, the 2B/SS/3B bench should be Nunez and Lin. Blake and JDM can back up the OF. DD should be to find a taker for Holt in the NL where he would potentially be more useful. Lin has a good eye and plays solid D.
If they found no suitable takers for Holt three weeks ago when they were shopping him and Marrero at the end of spring training, why would there suddenly be a buyer now? Because of how Holt is tearing the cover off the ball so far? If Holt is playing well enough for Dombrowski to find a suitor, I'd argue he's playing well enough to stick around here a bit longer.

I can't envision them giving up on Holt yet. Not three weeks into the season without nearly enough plate appearances to have a decent sample. The time to dump him was before spring training ended when they could have saved themselves about $1.8M by cutting him. Now that the salary is committed, they might as well try to squeeze something out of him. If he's still flailing with a sub-50 OPS+ on Memorial Day, they can Sandoval him.
 

shaggydog2000

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You have stated the case for virtually every prospect.
Not unless you mean all prospects are equally worthless, which I don't believe. The very best prospects have a combination of high performance in the minor leagues and scouting assessed tools that help project that performance to the major leagues. Lin has neither of those as a batter, except for a short period in AA which was quickly followed by poor performance the same year in AAA in a roughly equivalent sample size. So stating that a very small amount of information about a player who does not project to be a good hitter based on large amounts of information (from scouts and perfromance data) shows that he is a capable major league hitter is foolish to me.
 

nvalvo

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Why are we only talking about his 80 MLB PA? The more interesting case for Lin is all about his newfound flyball tendencies. (This is also what my first post in this thread was about.)

Here's SoxScout making the case on twitter.

 

Al Zarilla

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You guys did read my post, right? Lin has shown himself to have an MLB-ready glove at short, and he can hit his way out of a paper bag, based on his limited hitting stats from last year and this.

Those things mean he could replace Bogaerts in the field, while hitting in the lower third of the lineup. That doesn’t mean he is completely replacing the offensive production of Bogaerts, but it does mean re-signing Xander as a FA is less crucial than resigning Betts and (potentially) Sale.
Unless Lin turns into at least career average Stephen Drew, I can’t see a team like the Red Sox having him as starting shortstop (If Xander were to leave). No Freddy Galvis’s for this team. Actually, Galvis is having a career year so far. They’ll find a way to keep X.
 

Maximus

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If they found no suitable takers for Holt three weeks ago when they were shopping him and Marrero at the end of spring training, why would there suddenly be a buyer now? Because of how Holt is tearing the cover off the ball so far? If Holt is playing well enough for Dombrowski to find a suitor, I'd argue he's playing well enough to stick around here a bit longer.

I can't envision them giving up on Holt yet. Not three weeks into the season without nearly enough plate appearances to have a decent sample. The time to dump him was before spring training ended when they could have saved themselves about $1.8M by cutting him. Now that the salary is committed, they might as well try to squeeze something out of him. If he's still flailing with a sub-50 OPS+ on Memorial Day, they can Sandoval him.
Agreed that they would have been best served by moving Holt prior to the season but DD didn't get that done. Teams needs are fluid based on injury and player performance and hopefully will provide them with an opportunity to move Holt.
 

shaggydog2000

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Why are we only talking about his 80 MLB PA? The more interesting case for Lin is all about his newfound flyball tendencies. (This is also what my first post in this thread was about.)

Here's SoxScout making the case on twitter.

And he had a huge jump in ISO in AA, then a huge drop in AAA and the majors, where he was back to being way, way below average in that category. Maybe the launch angle change has helped him, but there isn't all that much evidence except a few good swings in 14 PA this year to say so. I hope every prospect works out, and I'm not saying he can't possibly hit, there is of course a chance that he will. But I don't see any significant evidence yet that he can, and talking about not resigning Bogaerts because Lin looked good in 14 PA so far this year is nuts.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Agreed that they would have been best served by moving Holt prior to the season but DD didn't get that done. Teams needs are fluid based on injury and player performance and hopefully will provide them with an opportunity to move Holt.
It's Dombrowski's fault that no one wanted Holt? He was dangling Holt and Marrero and got a better offer for Marrero (and that was only cash). Should tell you all you need to know about Holt's trade value.

If Dombrowski decides to remove Holt from the roster, it will be via an outright release. No one is going to trade anything for a guy they figure they can get for free if they're patient enough.
 

tonyarmasjr

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It's Dombrowski's fault that no one wanted Holt? He was dangling Holt and Marrero and got a better offer for Marrero (and that was only cash). Should tell you all you need to know about Holt's trade value.

If Dombrowski decides to remove Holt from the roster, it will be via an outright release. No one is going to trade anything for a guy they figure they can get for free if they're patient enough.
Do you have a source for this? I, for one, have no idea whether anyone was interested in Holt nor what they were (or are) willing to pay. Just because Marrero was traded for a bag of balls doesn't mean the market was even weaker for Holt.
 

nvalvo

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And he had a huge jump in ISO in AA, then a huge drop in AAA and the majors, where he was back to being way, way below average in that category. Maybe the launch angle change has helped him, but there isn't all that much evidence except a few good swings in 14 PA this year to say so. I hope every prospect works out, and I'm not saying he can't possibly hit, there is of course a chance that he will. But I don't see any significant evidence yet that he can, and talking about not resigning Bogaerts because Lin looked good in 14 PA so far this year is nuts.
I'm actually closer to your views on this than my last post maybe makes me look. Lin was *real bad* in AAA in 2017 after his MLB stint, and any projection of him going forward needs to account for that somehow.

(I also think Buzzkill Pauley's last two posts are bizarre. Lin is completely irrelevant to how the team approaches Bogaerts. Holt and Nuñez, on the other hand...)
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I realize Lin’s BABIP has been generous to date, but at the same time my aging eyes tell me he’s been putting the barrel on the ball at a surprising rate. High BABIP is typically interpreted as “lucky”, but in his crazy SSS i think Two-Way’s really hitting the ball hard, not just where they ain’t
 

JimD

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Do you have a source for this? I, for one, have no idea whether anyone was interested in Holt nor what they were (or are) willing to pay. Just because Marrero was traded for a bag of balls doesn't mean the market was even weaker for Holt.
Can't find the source right now, but at least one of the Sox beat writers had the story about Dombrowski offering Holt around and finding no takers.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Can't find the source right now, but at least one of the Sox beat writers had the story about Dombrowski offering Holt around and finding no takers.
I remember it, too, but if I'm remembering it correctly it didn't have much context or detail. There's a difference between DD offering Holt around and asking for a live arm, B-level prospect versus asking for a bag of balls (a la Marrero) or offering to send a million dollars with him. Without that type of information, we don't know what his trade value is. Of course it's not great - he's a 29yo utility player coming off a .548 OPS who hasn't proven his concussion issues are fully behind him. And then there's the question of what would be an acceptable offer (in my, your, or DD's eyes).


Found it. I don't have access to the McAdam piece
http://www.weei.com/blogs/john-tomase/report-red-sox-shopping-brock-holt-deven-marrero-ease-infield-logjam
 

JimD

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I remember it, too, but if I'm remembering it correctly it didn't have much context or detail. There's a difference between DD offering Holt around and asking for a live arm, B-level prospect versus asking for a bag of balls (a la Marrero) or offering to send a million dollars with him. Without that type of information, we don't know what his trade value is. Of course it's not great - he's a 29yo utility player coming off a .548 OPS who hasn't proven his concussion issues are fully behind him. And then there's the question of what would be an acceptable offer (in my, your, or DD's eyes).


Found it. I don't have access to the McAdam piece
http://www.weei.com/blogs/john-tomase/report-red-sox-shopping-brock-holt-deven-marrero-ease-infield-logjam
Given that Dombrowski accepted the proverbial bag of balls for Marrero, I think we can safely infer that he wasn't asking for the moon in exchange for Holt. Given the uncertainties around Holt it is likely that teams were unwilling to take on much of his salary at all.
 

shaggydog2000

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From the article linked below:

Since the start of 2017, Major Leaguers have hit just .237 and slugged .463 against four-seam fastballs thrown 95 mph or harder...Tzu-Wei Lin...has hit .429 against that kind of heat. That's the best of the 481 hitters who have had at least 25 plate appearances end with a fastball like that since the start of last year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/how-red-soxs-bats-can-approach-shohei-ohtani/c-272434464
Do you think Lin will be as good as the #3 guy on that list who had 29 plate apperances compared to Lin's 28? That would be Ryan Flaherty, who put up a .539 OPS last year with a 51 WRC+, and has a career -31.5 OWAR over parts of 7 seasons. That stat doesn't seem to be very good in a sample that size, from looking at that chart.