Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

Trey Ball: Finally Some Reason for Optimism?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Marbleheader, Apr 14, 2018.

  1. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

    Messages:
    9,504
    Given the Red Sox fairly weak farm system, anything noteworthy qualifies as main board worthy.

    After the Bobby Valentine debacle, the Red Sox were afforded a rare chance to pick in the top 10 in the 2013 MLB Draft. It was the franchise's highest pick since the Red Sox took Trot Nixon at the same spot, number 7 overall.

    The board was very mixed in the response to the selection of Trey Ball, a 2-way high school player. Many, myself included, were disappointed they didn't take Austin Meadows when their selection came up. In hindsight, it's looking like a relatively weak first round.

    Ball has struggled as a starter. Badly. He'd show flashes, but his command was poor, walks piled up. Ball was left unprotected in the Rule V draft. I've wondered in the Red Sox would try him as a position player if he didn't improve. While many players from the draft have been in the majors, Ball is in his second year at AA in his age 24 season.

    The team decided to convert him to a reliever, and though it's a small sample size, the results are encouraging. Ball has made 3 appearances. He hasn't surrendered a run and has a 0.60 WHIP. He's struck out 6 in 6.2 IP with only 2 BB. He's thrown over 70% of his pitches for strikes.

    Given the draft capital invested in him, it would be great if he could develop into something that could help the team at the Major League level. Something to keep an eye on in Portland
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    26,844
    Let's hope so. Per b-ref he's still *slightly* younger than average in AA. I read a masslive article that speculated he could be up this year if he takes to this role. Not sure I see that, but we shall see.
     
  3. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    copying this from the minor league game day thread.

    The fact that none of the multiple teams that aren't trying to win this year didn't pick him up in the Rule 5 draft makes me question how smart these management guys are. You have the former #7 pick in the draft who has been pitching full-time for all of 5 years plus he's 6'6" plus he's a LH who can throw 92 and he's north $25K to take a spring training look in an environment where teams that will drop 7 figures in a heartbeat on a 16 year old kid from Latin America?
    I've said it all along that I think Bell will have a major league career of some sort because there aren't a lot of guys who can throw over 92 from the LH side for strikes. He can at least do that.
    I'm glad he's still with the Sox. It's about time they tried him in the bullpen (although having him start all of last year may have been a calculated risk to keep his value down).
     
  4. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    55,123
    Have they changed anything about his delivery or set-up from the stretch after the conversion? Or, have they limited which pitches he's now throwing?
     
  5. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,550
    He changed his arm slot last year and had a lot of Jekyll and Hyde performances after doing so.
     
  6. The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

    The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,244
    And of course it would be interesting to see if his velocity ticks up a bit in relief.
     
  7. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    26,844
    It has.

    http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/04/boston_red_sox_convert_trey_ba.html
     
  8. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,244
    If he is good in the minors it isn't like there is much in his way. It's nice that Walden got a save today but I doubt he has much of a future.
     
  9. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,924
    There are very few reasons to look at this season's Sea Dogs box scores so it's nice to check and see if he pitched, if only for a second.

    I can't believe he is only 23.
     
  10. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
  11. Sox Puppet

    Sox Puppet Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    143
    Though Ball may never live up to the expectations of his draft slot, it wouldn't be terrible if converting him to relief yields us our version of Matt Bush.

    Drafted #1 in the 2004 draft as a shortstop, Bush flamed out repeatedly and went through all sorts of personal problems before finally converting to relief and being brought up by the Rangers in 2016. He's been a pretty reliable bullpen arm since then.
     
  12. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,554
    Maybe, but what's the point if you think there is no way in hell you would ever keep him on the majors roster all season? I think after this season he could become a minor league free agent -- that's when you start taking a flier on guys.
     
  13. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    If he shows something in spring training, why wouldn't a team like Miami or Cinci (etc.) be able to keep him on the roster all season? I mean BAL is trying to compete and they have two Rule 5 guys on their roster.

    Teams are trying to tank to get young talent. Trey Ball is the definition of young talent and as a Rule 5 guy it's low risk, high upside. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

    But I'm glad everyone missed the boat on him.
     
  14. bosox0192

    bosox0192 lurker

    Messages:
    123
    According to soxprospects he’s not rule 5 draft eligible until December 2018.
     
  15. judyb

    judyb Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,844
    Yeah, apparently because he wasn't yet 19 years old when he was drafted, he isn't eligible until they've had him for 5 years, not just the 4 that makes most players eligible.
     
  16. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
  17. judyb

    judyb Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,844
    I guess it's possible that's a newer rule that doesn't apply to players drafted and signed as long ago as he was.
     
  18. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,161
    He's got the 'power reliever' hair going, so that's good.
     
  19. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    Figured it out. Ball was drafted as an 18-year older. He became Rule 5 eligible after his 5th season, or last year. He is not a minor league free agent until after his 7th year (MLB Rule 55). Thus, he is a player who could go through Rule 5 twice, though it is unlikely that he will not be protected this year.

    Note that Soxprospects shows that Ball will be a minor league free agent in November 2019 and does not show the Rule 5 list for 2017.

    See this for confirmation: https://www.pressherald.com/2017/08/17/on-baseball-trey-ball-shows-another-glimpse-of-his-talent/
     
  20. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,554
    Heh, I have to admit, I haven't rooted for a tanking team in a while so the idea of a dead spot on the 40-man and the ML roster didn't occur to me as reasonable. But for Tampa? Yeah, sure. That still begs the question of whether they saw anything in Ball for *him* to be the guy they burn a roster spot on, but going forward that's a maybe. Which means the Sox would have to protect him.
     
  21. judyb

    judyb Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,844
    Looks like I misread it, I thought it was a player who wasn't 19 years old yet when signed became eligible after the 5th rule 5 draft since he'd been signed had already happened.
     
  22. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    I guessed we jinxed him. TB pitched on the 17th and gave up 4 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks in 2 IP. His day went:

    GO
    BB
    BB
    FO
    2B
    HR
    GO

    GO
    Pop Out
    Error
    FO
     
  23. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    Thought this deserved a place in the Trey Ball thread since they came out the same draft. Why the RS didn't consider Sean Manaea. Even though Manaea was top Cape Cod prospect. In short, injuries.
     
  24. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,420
    At some point we have to get over Trey Ball. It sucks that it hasn't worked out, but it happens, a lot more than people realize. Even with the 7th pick. Drafting is hard, in baseball more than any other sport. Since the draft started in 1967, only 16 guys out of 53 picked at #7 accumulated at least 5 WAR in their entire major league careers (Benintendi and Archie Bradley will get there and maybe another recent draftee or two, but that's still only about 35% reaching a very low bar).
     
  25. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,163
    Interesting quant perspective on this. I bet if you did this for all the top 10 spots in every sport, the results would be much lower than people project.

    I would also bet that if you were to rank them, by some equivalent metric like win-shares, it would look something like:
    1. NBA
    2. NFL
    3. NHL
    4. MLB
    The only way MLB might rank higher is the longer career expectancies, especially compared to NFL and NHL.
     
  26. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,420

    I can't speak to the NHL, but I'd be shocked if that wasn't the order for the other three. And really, after the first couple of picks, the hit rates are less than people think in the NBA and NFL too.
     
  27. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,163
    My guess is that the slope of hit rates descends most drastically in the NBA; top 3 is probably pretty high but by the time you get to 8-10, it's pretty low.
    NFL, I would guess, has a much flatter descent rate.
     
  28. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    Here's the median WSs for NBA 2000-2016 drafts (yes SSS).

    [​IMG]

    reference: http://www.businessinsider.com/nba-draft-pick-values-2017-6
     
  29. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,540
    Man I’m taking a look at that first round and it has the potential to be a really bad draft for everyone outside Bryant/Judge.

    Tim Anderson and Jon Gray might be the only others producing non-zero WAR.

    Besides that, you have a bunch of guys who are languishing in the minors (McGuire, Peterson, Stewart) total flameouts (Appell, Crawford), or AAAA/40 man depth pieces with brief tastes of MLB (Shipley, Arroyo, Renfroe, Dozier). Only a few can still be considered prospects (JP Crawford/Austin Meadows).

    I remember some of the discussion here surrounding that draft. In the weeks prior, folks were excited by some talk that Boston could get Kohl Stewart (ultimately went #4 to the Twins). He currently has a 7.50 ERA in AA. Others were clamoring for one of the stud high school outfielders (Austin Meadows went #8 to PIT and Clint Frazier #5 to CLE). Neither have shown much in AAA/MLB. Meadows for example, has a career OPS of .701 in over 120 AAA games across parts of three seasons. So he’s closer than Ball I guess, but the bat still ain’t big league.

    On the other hand, I remember folks not loving Colin Moran when he was projected to Boston. College bat, good hit tool but little power. He would have been the pick if available, but went #6 to Houston. It took him a while but he’s up with Pittsburgh now and playing well.
     
  30. dbn

    dbn Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,136
    If someone wants to collect similar statistics for each of the four major sports, it doesn't matter if the data is different; even if it's an apples to oranges to peaches to pears comparison, just fit a power law or something to each distribution *by pick* and ignore the scale factor because comparing the exponent is what is interesting.
     
  31. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,163
    Nice find.
    What strikes me as odd is the low scores for 2 and 6. A high score for 5 probably just means one guy who had a huge career there.
     
  32. SydneySox

    SydneySox A dash of cool to add the heat SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,791
    ... and Aaron Judge at 32, two picks before Manaea. I know it's not the first round technically but it's pretty close.
     
  33. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,692
    With regards to #2, maybe there's something in being caught up with all of the draftthink that goes on since you can't get the top pick. Here's the list since 2000; seems like there's a lot of high-upside, low floor guys who didn't get close to their ceiling:

    2017 Lonzo Ball
    2016 Brandon Ingram
    2015 D’Angelo Russell
    2014 Jabari Parker
    2013 Victor Oladipo
    2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
    2011 Derrick Williams
    2010 Evan Turner
    2009 Hasheem Thabeet
    2008 Michael Beasley
    2007 Kevin Durant
    2006 LaMarcus Aldridge
    2005 Marvin Williams
    2004 Emeka Okafor
    2003 Darko Milicic
    2002 Jay Williams
    2001 Tyson Chandler
    2000 Stromile Swift

    Here's #5, and Wade certainly skews the #s:

    2017 De’Aaron Fox
    2016 Kris Dunn
    2015 Mario Hezonja
    2014 Dante Exum
    2013 Alex Len
    2012 Thomas Robinson
    2011 Jonas Valanciunas
    2010 Demarcus Cousins
    2009 Ricky Rubio
    2008 Kevin Love
    2007 Jeff Green
    2006 Shelden Williams
    2005 Raymond Felton
    2004 Devin Harris
    2003 Dwyane Wade
    2002 Nikoloz Tskitishvili
    2001 Jason Richardson
    2000 Mike Miller

    Source: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/h...-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-5/
     
  34. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,554
    The NBA draft has evolved pretty dramatically over the years. Some of the seasons on this list include the days of taking high schoolers, a complete crapshoot, until the rule was instituted in 2005 (I believe) setting the minimum age of 19. Since then the league has probably gotten smarter about evaluating both the 19-year-old one-and-done guys, or smarter than they were able to be about high schoolers, and also I'd think most teams have a better operation overseas. The NBA probably deserves to be ranked highest among the major US sports for draft predictability going forward, but it wasn't that long ago that you could have made a case for the NFL at #1.
     
  35. lurker42

    lurker42 lurker

    Messages:
    134
    The number reported is the median value, not mean, so a single outlier will barely have any effect on the result at all.
     
  36. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,163
    The graph posted here was just median; the graph in the article also showed totals. The graphs looked pretty similar with dips at 2&6.
     

Share This Page