Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

[Tyrone Biggums]

Lester's side never made an offer, never presented numbers to the Sox side from saying they'd take 'market value'.
 
All "reports" saying the Sox could have signed Lester for x are false. The Sox never got a number from Lester's side and his agency tossed those numbers out to reporters in hopes of starting a conversation in the $120M range and moving up to $144. Lester's agency thinks he can get $155M+ on the market, and they're probably right.

Not saying that you're wrong. You could be correct. But if you're using the report that Lester's side never made an offer to the Sox then at the same time discrediting another report it seems like cherry picking stories to enhance your point. That's all well and good but the fact still remains when players go on record and say Lester was willing to sign there had to have been some type of back and forth. If this wasn't the case you probably wouldn't have Lester Ortiz Pedroia and now Victorino going on record about this. Players know what happened and it seems like they're using Bradford as a conduit while the owners are using Cafardo.

 

[rembrat]

So, he's deleted it since, but Gammons accidentally Tweeted what was apparently supposed to be a pair of DMs this morning around 5:30.  I don't know how to screenshot from my phone, but here's what they said:
 
TWEET 1 (5:27): Great hearing from you, Alex. I think he gets traded today, maybe St Louis, John Henry, ever the Hedge Fund guy, is adamant about not gi ...
 
TWEET 2 (5:27): contracts in their 30's long term deals. I'll reach out at the beginning of the week

We can assume he was talking to Speier?

 

[catomatic]

If the Red Sox brain trust watched 35 year-old Mark Buehrle and his 11 win, 3.11 ERA beating their team handily last night—what did they make of that? Did they say "14M (or its market equivalent) for that production is something we'll be able to find in a LH whenever we have the need for it."? Do they remember trying to patch together FA/Callup rotations with the Matt Clements and the Kyle Snyders of the world? What convinces them so resoundingly that the hypothetical bird in the bush is so much more cost efficient than the one in their hand that they are setting themselves up for such a huge PR hit? Medicals? I doubt it. Intention to resign him? I doubt it. If they wanted to pay the freight they've had many months in which to do it. He's gone in my opinion, but I'm really searching for answers. I might need a Frontline special with Will Lyman's voice breaking this down for me when all is said and done.  

 

[johnnywayback]

We can assume he was talking to Speier?

 
That was my thought, but no way to know.

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/DandCShow/status/494816111146573825
 
Dodgers out according to Gammo

 

[wilked]

Lots of scab-picking going on
 
I am not sure why people are so intent on going round and round the same topic with the same information.  You could jump 10 pages and many days backward on the thread and not even notice you were on the wrong page.  
 
Lester is being traded today.  At this point that is clearly in the best interest of the team - they stand to make out pretty well on a return for the rental of Lester's services.  Talk should focus on trade partners, returns, etc.  Not another round of 'here's what I would have done as GM/owner 3 months ago'

 

[Fred in Lynn]

If the Red Sox brain trust watched 35 year-old Mark Buehrle and his 11 win, 3.11 ERA beating their team handily last night—what did they make of that? Did they say "14M (or its market equivalent) for that production is something we'll be able to find in a LH whenever we have the need for it."? Do they remember trying to patch together FAIR/Callup rotations with the Matt Clements and the Kyle Snyders of the world? What convinces them so resoundingly that the hypothetical bird in the bush is so much more cost efficient than the one in their hand that they are setting themselves up for such a huge PR hit? Medicals? I doubt it. Intention to resign him? I doubt it. If they wanted to pay the freight they've had many months in which to do it. He's gone in my opinion, but I'm really searching for answers. I might need a Frontline special with Will Lyman's voice breaking this down for me when all is said and done.  

They probably didn't think twice about it, and thank the gods for that. One occurrence of something tells us nothing. I think it would be wrong to believe they arrived hastily at the decision to make him available, so no single performance from a different person is going to change their view.

 

[In my lifetime]

Lots of scab-picking going on
 
I am not sure why people are so intent on going round and round the same topic with the same information.  You could jump 10 pages and many days backward on the thread and not even notice you were on the wrong page.  
 
Lester is being traded today.  At this point that is clearly in the best interest of the team - they stand to make out pretty well on a return for the rental of Lester's services.  Talk should focus on trade partners, returns, etc.  Not another round of 'here's what I would have done as GM/owner 3 months ago'

 
seconded

 

[catomatic]

They probably didn't think twice about it, and thank the gods for that. One occurrence of something tells us nothing. I think it would be wrong to believe they arrived hastily at the decision to make him available, so no single performance from a different person is going to change their view.

I'm using—what's the phrase? Poetic License. But I take your point. 

 

[jacklamabe65]

Lots of scab-picking going on
 
I am not sure why people are so intent on going round and round the same topic with the same information.  You could jump 10 pages and many days backward on the thread and not even notice you were on the wrong page.  
 
Lester is being traded today.  At this point that is clearly in the best interest of the team - they stand to make out pretty well on a return for the rental of Lester's services.  Talk should focus on trade partners, returns, etc.  Not another round of 'here's what I would have done as GM/owner 3 months ago'

 
I agree with you except for one solitary point: I think the backtracking by teams over the past 24 hours will be enough for the Red Sox to not trade Lester at this time as they feel they can't secure a fair exchange. He will be pitching against the Yankees for the Red Sox this weekend.

 

[amfox1]

Here are my thoughts on possible competing trade packages from STL and PIT for Lester:
 
Note that I assume a Lester-only deal.  It is too complicated and unlikely that we will be throwing additional players in order to increase the return.
 
I assume two players from each team are coming back (plus in some cases a filler prospect).  Again, it is too complicated to assume larger packages.
 
 
STL A: Piscotty + one of Kaminsky/Martinez/Gonzales/Reyes/competitive balance pick (Round A, #2)
 
STL B: Miller + Grichuk + C prospect
 
PIT A: Marte + one of Ramirez/Jones/Garcia
 
PIT B: Bell + C prospect
 
I would not be surprised to see other teams (MIL, OAK, TOR, KC, MIA) nibble as the price for Lester keeps dropping.  I don't expect LAD back in (not because of Gammons but because they have opened some space in the NL West and will focus on bullpen pieces).  I don't expect SEA or BAL because of their inability to get big deals done.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

If Lester ISN"T traded then there better be a 5 year 130mil w/option in his locker by sundown.

 

[Puffy]

I went to bed about 1:30 this morning and figured I'd sleep away half of the then remaining deadline clock time. At that point, I reasoned, someone would have to have been dealt. Nope. This really is going to go down to the last couple of hours, isn't it?

 
These things tend to go down to the wire, so I doubt we hear anything until 4:00 - 4:30.  I'm curious if the Lester sweepstakes might take time away from making other small deals, be it for a Miller or Badenhop, or a position player like Gomes or Carp. Oh, not to mention Lackey for that matter.

 

[someoneanywhere]

All the more reason for someone to start a new thread for the shitstorm getting ready to come. Deadline day game thread anyone?

 

[Fred in Lynn]

I'm using—what's the phrase? Poetic License. But I take your point. 

I hear you. Just taking your post at face-value and giving my answer to what I interpret as the salient question.

 

[Puffy]

Here are my thoughts on possible competing trade packages from STL and PIT for Lester:
 

 
This sounds about right to me. I imagine one tricky part of the negotiations is probably the Red Sox reaching for higher level prospects and being countered by demands for either Andrew Miller or maybe even John Lackey. Cherington is obviously trying to maximize the return, but will have to see the most he can get for Lester before considering adding Miller for a greater prize. I do wonder if they would get a better return trading the three separately or trying to make a deal with some combination (as you say, complicated).

 

[JimD]

https://twitter.com/DandCShow/status/494816111146573825
 
Dodgers out according to Gammo

 
Of course, a team would never tell the media that they are out of the running to try and get the selling team to cave.

 

[catomatic]

I hear you. Just taking your post at face-value and giving my answer to what I interpret as the salient question.

As you should because, despite pointing toward something larger, I framed it rhetorically that way. We should all make a point of revisiting this thread in 2020 and seeing whether the calculus held up over time.

 

[DJnVa]

Lester is in the midst of a career year. Nomar was perceived to be both declining and petulant.

 
Well, maybe some perceived that, but his slash stats were .321/.367/.500 when he was dealt and the prior year he finished 8th in the MVP voting. Now that wasn't late 90s Nomar, but not many were.

 

[catomatic]

 
Well, maybe some perceived that, but his slash stats were .321/.367/.500 when he was dealt and the prior year he finished 8th in the MVP voting. Now that wasn't late 90s Nomar, but not many were.

His defense, according to the eye test, was pretty putrid. He was slinging the ball all over the place, as I remember.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Jesus I can only imagine the reaction around here if the Sox HADN'T won the world series last year.  My god there'd be heads on stakes.

The Yankees being mediocre helps temper things too. It seems to vindicate the Red Sox philosophy. If the Yankees win 98 games next year with Lester and Ellsbury , while the Sox have a mediocre year in Papi's last year with value FAs and a $25 million starting pitching staff, I would think that's the point at which the FO's mettle will be truly tested.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

 
Well, maybe some perceived that, but his slash stats were .321/.367/.500 when he was dealt and the prior year he finished 8th in the MVP voting. Now that wasn't late 90s Nomar, but not many were.

The Nomar situation, although similar in that they traded a fan favorite star, was carried out by a completely different leadership team in Boston.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Rings or no rings, Lester isn't really close to being as big of an icon as Nomar was when he was traded. People forget just how dark the Boston sports scene was in the late 90s. In those days we had Nomar and Pedro and pretty much nothing else. Things were better by 2004 mostly due to the Pats, but Nomar's pedigree was pretty unique in Sox history. I'm not sure how I feel about Lester potentially getting traded, but as someone else said hopefully fan reaction isn't seeming the front office is dwelling all that much on.

 

[Curll]

The Nomar situation, although similar in that they traded a fan favorite star, was carried out by a completely different leadership team in Boston.

You mean the one with Henry, Werner, and Lucchino at the helm with Ben Cherington being the assistant GM?
 
That completely different FO?

 

[seageral]

 
seconded

 

[dcmissle]

They are not comparable situations. Lester is having a tremendous year; Nomar was obviously trending down. Lester has been a model citizen; Nomar in his last year here was a self absorbed pain in the ass. Nomar obviously made a mistake in rejecting an offer than in hindsight was not only fair but generous. Lester is going to hit the jackpot after rejecting a lowball offer, and deservedly so.

The thing I remember most after Nomar left town was the disappointment expressed about what we got in return.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Of course, a team would never tell the media that they are out of the running to try and get the selling team to cave.

Agreed, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it was true. From everything I've read in the last couple days, Lackey seems like a much better fit for the Dodgers than Lester. 

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I agree Lester and Nomar are not comparable situations for a number of reasons. I was merely responding to the point that Lester is more beloved by the fan base. I strenuously disagree, even if you look at Nomar in 2004 as compared to Nomar in 1999.

 

[snowmanny]

Rings or no rings, Lester isn't really close to being as big of an icon as Nomar was when he was traded. People forget just how dark the Boston
sports scene was in the late 90s. In those days we had Nomar and Pedro and pretty much nothing else. Things were better by 2004 mostly due to the Pats, but Nomar's pedigree was pretty unique in Sox history. I'm not sure how I feel
about Lester potentially getting traded, but as someone else said hopefully fan reaction isn't seeming the front office is dwelling all that much on.

Nomar was BY FAR the most popular Red Sox player I'd ever seen, and I go back to 1966. More than Pedro. More than Yaz. More than Fisk. That being said, in 2004 he was pouty and looked unpredictable, and that game in Yankee Stadium where he was on the bench looking miserable turned a lot of people off. He had turned down what seemed to be a fair offer, he was implying he couldn't play, he had just had a crappy playoff series against NY. Things had changed a bit by the time he left.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

You mean the one with Henry, Werner, and Lucchino at the helm with Ben Cherington being the assistant GM?
 
That completely different FO?

Good point...maybe completely wasn't the right word in respect to ownership - Epstein was the GM - Hoyer assistant to the GM -  Cherington was not the assistant GM at that time - he was involved in player development.

 

[OCD SS]

The irony is that at this time of year we are normally on the otherside, decrying the steep demands leaked by other GMs. Now it's our GM making those demands, and I think we should be prepared for a lesser package.
 
Also, I could see the Dodgers being out on Lester, but in on Lackey.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Assuming this is spin control on the initial 4/$70 offer:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/07/did_red_sox_really_low-ball_lester_with_initial_of.html.
 

Based on all that, the Sox' [initial 4/$70] proposal was widely declared to be something between a blatant insult and an exploitative lowballing. In fact, Lester's camp didn't bother to counteroffer, and negotiations apparently never again got to the point where years and dollar figures were exchanged. That's why it's easy to point to that offer as the beginning of the end of Lester's days in Boston.
 
But were the terms as egregious as they've been portrayed? Let's take a look at a few of the factors at play
 

:

 

[DJnVa]

The irony is that at this time of year we are normally on the otherside, decrying the steep demands leaked by other GMs. Now it's our GM making those demands, and I think we should be prepared for a lesser package.
 
Also, I could see the Dodgers being out on Lester, but in on Lackey.

 
The Dodgers may or may not be out, but it might be because they actually are refusing to deal any of their top youngsters and the Sox told them thanks but no thanks.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

 
I'm really curious which "common metrics" you would produce to show that Lester was a below average pitcher in any season but 2012. And even then he was better than average in FIP- and xFIP-, and only worse than average in SIERA by the skin of his teeth (league 4.00, Lester 4.01).

 
First of all, I said over the previous 2 seasons.  In 2012-2013, his ERA+ was 97.  I probably overstepped with "many" but his SIERA for the 2 years was 3.96.  He was a pretty consistently poor pitcher until he got hot in the 2nd half of the season and went on a run.  Check his stats vs. Jake Peavy, for example: 
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4930,1051
 
The question the front office faced, and I think it was a perfectly legitimate one, was which was the real Jon Lester?  The sum of the numbers didn't scream ace in any way, shape or form.  His postseason performance did.  In that same situation I'd advise caution in proceeding and see if the performance carries over or not.
 
Now, having seen what he's done this year, I'd pay the guy.  But I understand why they wouldn't feel comfortable extending themselves before the season, because I wouldn't have either.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Assuming this is spin control on the initial 4/$70 offer:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/07/did_red_sox_really_low-ball_lester_with_initial_of.html.
 
:

 
Yeah, Who owns the Globe again? Oh right.
 
Look, it's perfectly fine if the Sox don't think Lester is worth the market contract he'll get from someone, which will likely be around 6/140. That's just a business decision. But all this waffling "4/70 was a fair offer" stuff is silly fluff. If there are multiple teams willing to offer him 6/140, then that's what he's worth. If the Sox don't agree, then they've made a business and baseball decision not to match. The rest of it is padding.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Ironically, if the Red Sox trade Lester, they will help the Yankees out.  The Yankees want to hold on to their draft picks next year, but they will also need to sign a top of the rotation starter (Tanaka will probably miss the entire season and they can't count on Sabathia to be any good at this point).  If the Red Sox trade Lester, the Yankees will likely sign him without giving up their first round pick, and that pick should fall somewhere between 10-20.
 
If the Red Sox can get an elite prospect for Lester, I think they have to do it.  Otherwise, I would hold on to Lester and get draft compensation, make the Yankees suffer when they sign him.

 

[jimbobim]

Assuming this is spin control on the initial 4/$70 offer:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/07/did_red_sox_really_low-ball_lester_with_initial_of.html.
 
:

 
Absolutely. Can it be explained if you look at the market simply because there is a lack of pitchers who have hit FA at exactly 30 ? Sure. However, after the Tanaka and Homer Bailey contract it was self evident to everyone in baseball Lester was going to clear 100 million. 

 

[mfried]

 
First of all, I said over the previous 2 seasons.  In 2012-2013, his ERA+ was 97.  I probably overstepped with "many" but his SIERA for the 2 years was 3.96.  He was a pretty consistently poor pitcher until he got hot in the 2nd half of the season and went on a run.  Check his stats vs. Jake Peavy, for example: 
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4930,1051
 
The question the front office faced, and I think it was a perfectly legitimate one, was which was the real Jon Lester?  The sum of the numbers didn't scream ace in any way, shape or form.  His postseason performance did.  In that same situation I'd advise caution in proceeding and see if the performance carries over or not.
 
Now, having seen what he's done this year, I'd pay the guy.  But I understand why they wouldn't feel comfortable extending themselves before the season, because I wouldn't have either.

I think Lester figured something out this year in terms of his down/in cutter to RH hitters, spotting the four-seamer, mixing in the curve...  One of the trademarks of the power pitcher - he was able to use a 92 4-seamer and hold something in reserve for big moments.  Not the same pitcher as in previous years.  However, not reassuring as to going over four years.

 

[Leather]

The overall circumstances of the Nomar trade made it far, far, more polarizing to the fan base.  
 
Not only was he still a fan favorite (though some of the shine had come off in the previous 2 years), but the Red Sox were A) coming off of a heartbreaking 2003; and B) were perceived to still be in the running for the AL East with the Yankees.  It was inconceivable to a large percentage of the fanbase that trading away the team's third best hitter (in an era of Slugging Uber Alles) for light-hitting, defensive specialists at SS and 1B was somehow improving the team.   People thought that the ownership group had gone fucking batshit, and the Red Sox were scuttling a chance at the playoffs in the middle of the season just to spite Nomar.
 
Yankees fans are "shocked" that the Red Sox are trading Lester?  In 2004, Yankees fans were openly mocking Red Sox fans for the team trading away Nomar.  "We would NEVER trade away Jeter!  Your team will ALWAYS SUCK, and this is why!"  
 
There's no comparison.  Maybe the result of 2004 is clouding people's memory, but August 1, 2004 was a really dark and strange time for Red Sox fans.    August 1, 2014 is just merely the sad aspect of doing business.
 
EDIT: people were calling for Theo's job after the Nomar trade (and if the Sox had lost in the playoffs again, he might have lost it). 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
The sum of the numbers didn't scream ace in any way, shape or form. 

 
I totally agree with that. But "not ace" /= "below average."

 

[dcmissle]

Nomar was BY FAR the most popular Red Sox player I'd ever seen, and I go back to 1966. More than Pedro. More than Yaz. More than Fisk. That being said, in 2004 he was pouty and looked unpredictable, and that game in Yankee Stadium where he was on the bench looking miserable turned a lot of people off. He had turned down what seemed to be a fair offer, he was implying he couldn't play, he had just had a crappy playoff series against NY. Things had changed a bit by the time he left.

Their relative popularity can be gauged by the FO reaction to both players.

It out a contract out on Nomar. It was executed by many, but primarily by Larry's main button men, Dennis and Callahan.

Thus far, the FO has not laid a glove on Lester. And if it tries you will know they have truly lost their minds

 

[jsinger121]

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  21s
Source: Jon Lester has been traded.
 

 

[Corsi]

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  4s
Lester going to a team on the West Coast.
 

 

[Leather]

Well NOW what do we do all day?

 

[DJnVa]

And here we go...
 

 

[jimbobim]

Passan is really dragging this out. 
 
West coast team ? 
 
Spill the beans man

 

[Corsi]

 

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  3s
lester appears to be headed west. looks like a's may be the team.
 

 

[DJnVa]

Well NOW what do we do all day?

 
Miller and Lackey dude!!! Keep up!!!

 

[rodderick]

Well NOW what do we do all day?

 
Wait for Lackey and Miller to be traded!

 

[Orange Julia]

You know, David Ortiz had a day off yesterday. How do we know he's not being traded?