Too Much Pitching? The 2017 40-man Crunch

Red(s)HawksFan · Dec 8, 2016

The current roster is at 40 players with Rutledge, so no one needs to be sacrificed to make room for him. However, Moreland hasn't been officially added. They may in fact be holding off on making that official while they explore other options. I think there are a handful of pitchers that they could conceivably DFA and try to outright to the minors...Workman, Ramirez, Jerez...even if they lost one of them, it isn't likely to hurt that much.

Bowlerman9 · Dec 8, 2016

Deven Marrero has put up OPS of .660 (2015) and .487 (2016) in AAA. Over 800 AB between the two years.

There is no reason he should be on the 40 man roster once Moreland signs his contract.

LahoudOrBillyC · Dec 8, 2016

I really think the days of dicking with Eduardo Rodriguez are over, right? Seems like he gets a rotation spot.

Bowlerman9 · Dec 8, 2016

Williams Jerez gets the boot with the addition of Moreland.

Marrero lives to see another day!

foulkehampshire · Dec 8, 2016

Buzzkill Pauley said:
And, of course, there's the cautionary tale of 2016 Sandy Leon, whenever it's assumed a scrub will always be nothing but a scrub.

Is it that cautionary? Or was he basically a product of unsustainable luck?

BABIP's:

June: .591
July: .426
August: .373
September: .302

I mean, he definitely did improve and while I don't think his September (.213/.286/.253) was what we might expect from him going forward, neither do I think a guy with his skillset is truly capable of generating elite level .370+ BABIP's. Not enough speed, average contact, doesn't hit the ball particularly hard or far.

A rosy projection of Leon is maybe .250/.310/.400 type hitter with neutral luck. 700 (ish) OPS catchers don't grow on trees and the bar is so low that it would probably make him a top 5 C in the AL over the course of a full season. I'm still inclined to think Swihart will end up the starting C come summer, with Leon being a good platoon option against LHP.

Tyrone Biggums · Dec 8, 2016

Bowlerman9 said:
Williams Jerez gets the boot with the addition of Moreland.

Marrero lives to see another day!

I have to think it came down to the imbalance of the 40 man. Regardless I'll be stunned if Jerez doesn't get claimed (everyone is willing to take a flyer on a lefty) and if Marrero is still on the 40 man in February.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 8, 2016

Bowlerman9 said:
Williams Jerez gets the boot with the addition of Moreland.

Marrero lives to see another day!

If Xander is out any significant amount of time, isn't Marrero our back up? Holt and Marco I guess, but would they really let one of them play SS for 2 months?

johnnywayback · Dec 8, 2016

On top of all this, I thought I remembered hearing that the 40-man is going to get really crowded after the 2017 season, and it looks like we'll have to find room for Rafael Devers, Sam Travis, Nick Longhi, Trey Ball, Jake Cosart, Chandler Shepherd, Yankory Pimentel, Jalen Beeks...obviously some of them are going to flame out to the point where they're not guys we'd mind losing in the Rule 5 draft (and some will no doubt get traded), but that's a whole other issue to be kept in mind.

As for this year, there seems to be little chance of Abad, Hembree, and Elias all making the club. In fact, I think there's probably only room for one of them unless you're optioning Barnes. And I imagine that, with Brentz, it's just a matter of figuring out the optimal timing to try to sneak him through waivers, because he has no role on the team barring injury. So it seems like there will be several guys in Fort Myers who should keep a bag packed.

effectivelywild · Dec 8, 2016

Is there a real reason we have to fret about Abad not making the club? IIRC, he was putrid last year.

NDame616 · Dec 8, 2016

I'd move Holt up to "lock" Farrell likes him and he can pretty much spell any non P/C spot in the field.

Devizier · Dec 8, 2016

I'm the only one banging the drum for swingmen in the bullpen, but we've seen this carried out effectively before:
Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield, Derek Lowe, Justin Masterson (the first time around)...
Pomeranz just did this. These guys can be stretched out when the time comes.

johnnywayback · Dec 8, 2016

effectivelywild said:
Is there a real reason we have to fret about Abad not making the club? IIRC, he was putrid last year.

Not so much "fret," but it would be lame if they tendered him a contract, thus putting themselves on the hook for a few million bucks in an off-season where they're pinching pennies, and then had to eat that cash.

Also, he wasn't putrid last year, he just isn't a high-leverage guy. He's a LOOGY.

jasail · Dec 8, 2016

Rotation:
Right now, it looks like they are going to be in a position to move a starter, likely Buchholz or Pomeranz. I'm a bigger fan of moving Pomeranz because I think he can bring back more and I'm not too keen on having 4 LHSP in Fenway. However, I think the Sox are leaning towards moving Clay because of cost. He's probably also the lesser pitcher at this point. Wright then becomes the swing man and #6 starter. Owens and Johnson are optioned and become organizational depth as the 7th and 8th starters.

Bullpen:
5 spots seem to be set Kimbrell, Thorn, Ross, Kelly and Wright. So that leaves 4 guys for 2 spots. I'm cutting bait with Abad when the crunch comes, be it through a trade or a DFA. I just was not impressed with him at all in any situation. Barnes is a guy that I'd like to see back there because he can get a big strikeout and also go multiple innings, but the depth provided by his option is also valuable. If they choose to keep Barnes, I'm taking Elias over Hembree. Hembree is somewhat redundant with Kelly and Barnes and he's the low man of the tree. Plus, I like Elias stuff and potential and would like to see what he can do as the second lefty. While he stunk last year, he's been decent against LHH over his career. The Noe's of the world are then optioned to give the Sox some depth.

Position Players:
I think 13/14 remaining spots are set with only the 4th bench spot in question. I'm giving that spot to Rutledge to give the Sox a platoon partner with Panda. Although, they may be able to improve on Rutledge through a trade of Buchholz or Pomeranz (although I'd rather a Pomeranz trade fill depth in the upper minors).

That results in optioning Hernandez, Marrerro and Swihart. Unfortunately, this leaves them DFA'ing Brentz. He's not a great player but I think he provides the Sox with a decent depth option if the Sox need a short term solution in the OF or on the bench for Young. They don't have anyone on the 40-man roster that can fill that void and a decent hitting OF is an organization weakness in the high minors. However, I'm not sure he's that much better than some AAAA roster fodder that may be available on a MiL contract that would not result in releasing one of the bullpen arms.

Smith and Workman are still far enough away where you can cross that bridge when you get to it, but with those moves they will have several open spots on the 40-man.

Papelbon's Poutine · Dec 8, 2016

jasail said:
Rotation:
Right now, it looks like they are going to be in a position to move a starter, likely Buchholz or Pomeranz. I'm a bigger fan of moving Pomeranz because I think he can bring back more and I'm not too keen on having 4 LHSP in Fenway. However, I think the Sox are leaning towards moving Clay because of cost. He's probably also the lesser pitcher at this point. Wright then becomes the swing man and #6 starter. Owens and Johnson are optioned and become organizational depth as the 7th and 8th starters.

Bullpen:
5 spots seem to be set Kimbrell, Thorn, Ross, Kelly and Wright. So that leaves 4 guys for 2 spots. I'm cutting bait with Abad when the crunch comes, be it through a trade or a DFA. I just was not impressed with him at all in any situation. Barnes is a guy that I'd like to see back there because he can get a big strikeout and also go multiple innings, but the depth provided by his option is also valuable. If they choose to keep Barnes, I'm taking Elias over Hembree. Hembree is somewhat redundant with Kelly and Barnes and he's the low man of the tree. Plus, I like Elias stuff and potential and would like to see what he can do as the second lefty. While he stunk last year, he's been decent against LHH over his career. The Noe's of the world are then optioned to give the Sox some depth.

Position Players:
I think 13/14 remaining spots are set with only the 4th bench spot in question. I'm giving that spot to Rutledge to give the Sox a platoon partner with Panda. Although, they may be able to improve on Rutledge through a trade of Buchholz or Pomeranz (although I'd rather a Pomeranz trade fill depth in the upper minors).

That results in optioning Hernandez, Marrerro and Swihart. Unfortunately, this leaves them DFA'ing Brentz. He's not a great player but I think he provides the Sox with a decent depth option if the Sox need a short term solution in the OF or on the bench for Young. They don't have anyone on the 40-man roster that can fill that void and a decent hitting OF is an organization weakness in the high minors. However, I'm not sure he's that much better than some AAAA roster fodder that may be available on a MiL contract that would not result in releasing one of the bullpen arms.

Smith and Workman are still far enough away where you can cross that bridge when you get to it, but with those moves they will have several open spots on the 40-man.

I think the most glaring argument for moving Buchholz beyond Pomeranz is reliability and control. He's got one year left and while he could stay healthy and he the guy we've seen flashes of, the times those two things have collided he counted counted on the fingers of Mordecai Brown. His salary doesn't help, but I think that's secondary.

Pomeranz is younger, has just as much upside and comes with longer, cheaper control. I could care less if they traded Espinoza or a bag of sunflower seeds for him, so I don't factor that in. But given his age and control status, I think they need to keep him around. Clay's contract is up, Price has an option coming and Sale is going to need a big extension soon. The Sox could very well be looking at a barren rotation in a few years.

jasail · Dec 9, 2016

Papelbon's Poutine said:
I think the most glaring argument for moving Buchholz beyond Pomeranz is reliability and control. He's got one year left and while he could stay healthy and he the guy we've seen flashes of, the times those two things have collided he counted counted on the fingers of Mordecai Brown. His salary doesn't help, but I think that's secondary.

Pomeranz is younger, has just as much upside and comes with longer, cheaper control. I could care less if they traded Espinoza or a bag of sunflower seeds for him, so I don't factor that in. But given his age and control status, I think they need to keep him around. Clay's contract is up, Price has an option coming and Sale is going to need a big extension soon. The Sox could very well be looking at a barren rotation in a few years.

I can see both sides of it. It's tough to argue who is the better piece to trade w/o knowing what the market is for both. If Pomeranz can bring back substantially more value, it may be worth the risk of potentially downgrading the 5th starter spot from Pomeranz to Buchholz in 2017 and having to find another 5th starter in 2018. Then again, if the returns are closer to similar (either by a depressed return for Pomeranz or higher than expected return on Buchholz), Buchholz is obviously the guy to move for the reasons you state.

Papelbon's Poutine · Dec 9, 2016

Yes, that's fair and didn't mean to discount it. If they got a great offer of Pomeranz, they should probably take it. Shit, if they got a dream offer on Price I wouldn't be against it.

ALiveH · Dec 9, 2016

Almost completely agree with jasail. Only quibble is I'd move Clay. And I hope they move him for 1-2 very good low minors prospects to start restocking the system. I'm definitely more bullish than most on this board on Pomeranz - think he has a good chance at being a stud starter.

Bowlerman9 · Dec 9, 2016

bosox79 said:
If Xander is out any significant amount of time, isn't Marrero our back up? Holt and Marco I guess, but would they really let one of them play SS for 2 months?

A guy who cant put up an OPS over .500 in his second year in AAA should not be backing up anyone on a major league roster. I'd let Brock or Marco start at SS for two months before I let Marrero start for a week. Really, the guy has been absolutely putrid at AAA two years in a row. There's no reason to believe he'd put up an OPS over .500 in the majors.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 9, 2016

Bowlerman9 said:
A guy who cant put up an OPS over .500 in his second year in AAA should not be backing up anyone on a major league roster. I'd let Brock or Marco start at SS for two months before I let Marrero start for a week. Really, the guy has been absolutely putrid at AAA two years in a row. There's no reason to believe he'd put up an OPS over .500 in the majors.

Fair enough, he's still the best defensive SS on the team though. I wouldn't lose sleep if he was cut because there are probably comparable players we could sign for depth if X did go down for a month or two, but there are others on the 40 man I'd cut first like Bryce Brentz who has spent parts of 5 years in Pawtucket and has only regressed and is never on the field. None of these guys are really worth the bandwidth.

xjack · Dec 9, 2016

bosox79 said:
Fair enough, he's still the best defensive SS on the team though. I wouldn't lose sleep if he was cut because there are probably comparable players we could sign for depth if X did go down for a month or two, but there are others on the 40 man I'd cut first like Bryce Brentz who has spent parts of 5 years in Pawtucket and has only regressed and is never on the field. None of these guys are really worth the bandwidth.

Agree. Also, Marrero had elbow surgery in November. Not saying that explains all of Marrero's hitting woes in 2016, but it's still worth seeing if he can rebound.

the moops · Dec 9, 2016

ALiveH said:
Only quibble is I'd move Clay. And I hope they move him for 1-2 very good low minors prospects to start restocking the system.

The problem with this is that no team is going to give you any very good prospects for the privilege to pay Clay to pitch for them for one year.

jasail · Dec 9, 2016

the moops said:
The problem with this is that no team is going to give you any very good prospects for the privilege to pay Clay to pitch for them for one year.

I can not imagine Clay's market (if there is one) is much more than an improvement over Rutledge or Brentz and that would likely take the Sox picking up some of Clay's contract. The best comp I can think of is Hellickson last year, he was coming off several bad years and was owed just less than 7M. He cost the Phillies only a low-A reliever. The only way the Sox rebuild the system through moving a starting a pitcher is by moving Pomeranz, who can probably return up to two top-ten players from a system.

Rasputin · Dec 9, 2016

If the Sox were willing to trade Pomeranz to restock the farm system, they wouldn't have traded all the guys they just traded.

Seriously, the Sox loaded up for the next few years at the expense of years 4-10. They're not going to change course and trade one of the top five starters to restock the system. The goal is to win the world series as many times as you can before you die. I wouldn't have made the trade for Sale, but they did and it's a pretty big signal that they value the near future a lot more highly than the more distant future.

Buchholz isn't just the best candidate because he's on a relatively cheap contract for just a single year, he's also the best candidate to trade because there are better options for all the roles he can fill. The point of trading him is not to bring back a big return, it's to get something of some use--even if it's just a low level reliever prospect--for a guy who doesn't really have a role on the team.

If he goes off and has a brilliant season for the D-Backs or whoever, then bully for him.

Mueller's Twin Grannies · Dec 16, 2016

Didn't see this anywhere else, but...

Williams Jerez cleared waivers and was outrighted to Pawtucket.

Koufax · Dec 16, 2016

Brandon Workman signed to 1 year contract by the Sox.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 17, 2016

Rasputin said:
If the Sox were willing to trade Pomeranz to restock the farm system, they wouldn't have traded all the guys they just traded.

Seriously, the Sox loaded up for the next few years at the expense of years 4-10. They're not going to change course and trade one of the top five starters to restock the system. The goal is to win the world series as many times as you can before you die. I wouldn't have made the trade for Sale, but they did and it's a pretty big signal that they value the near future a lot more highly than the more distant future.

Buchholz isn't just the best candidate because he's on a relatively cheap contract for just a single year, he's also the best candidate to trade because there are better options for all the roles he can fill. The point of trading him is not to bring back a big return, it's to get something of some use--even if it's just a low level reliever prospect--for a guy who doesn't really have a role on the team.

If he goes off and has a brilliant season for the D-Backs or whoever, then bully for him.

Two quibbles with this:

1) I think you're reading the strategic tea leaves from the Sale trade a little too hard. Yes, DD sacrificed a significant amount of long-term value for some short-term value. But that may just have been because he saw the system as overbalanced in this regard (i.e., more long-term value than necessary and a short-term value deficit). Having made these trades, he may have gone as far in this direction as he thinks he needs to--and possibly even a little farther. It wouldn't be particularly surprising if, having sacrificed elite prospects for an elite major leaguer, he now swung the pendulum the other way by sacrificing a middling major leaguer or two for a middling prospect or two--leaving the ML roster still much better than it was a month ago, and the farm a little less depleted.

2) I think it's a genuine problem to go into 2017 with four lefties in the rotation. Maybe not as big a problem as it would be in other years, since AL teams, and especially AL East teams, will presumably be stacking their rosters with LHH to take advantage of the LHP shortage in the league right now. But still, four is too many. If either Pomeranz or EdRo were a righty, I'd say trading Buchholz (if you're going to trade anybody) would be a slam-dunk. As it is, I'm not so sure.

Rasputin · Dec 17, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
Two quibbles with this:

1) I think you're reading the strategic tea leaves from the Sale trade a little too hard. Yes, DD sacrificed a significant amount of long-term value for some short-term value. But that may just have been because he saw the system as overbalanced in this regard (i.e., more long-term value than necessary and a short-term value deficit). Having made these trades, he may have gone as far in this direction as he thinks he needs to--and possibly even a little farther. It wouldn't be particularly surprising if, having sacrificed elite prospects for an elite major leaguer, he now swung the pendulum the other way by sacrificing a middling major leaguer or two for a middling prospect or two--leaving the ML roster still much better than it was a month ago, and the farm a little less depleted.

Sure, that's at least hypothetically possible.

2) I think it's a genuine problem to go into 2017 with four lefties in the rotation. Maybe not as big a problem as it would be in other years, since AL teams, and especially AL East teams, will presumably be stacking their rosters with LHH to take advantage of the LHP shortage in the league right now. But still, four is too many. If either Pomeranz or EdRo were a righty, I'd say trading Buchholz (if you're going to trade anybody) would be a slam-dunk. As it is, I'm not so sure.

I think this is nonsense. I think the notion that a rotation can be too lefthanded or two righthanded is utter poppycock. Why the heck would it matter? What matters is how good they are. Sure in a hypothetical world where we have our pick of five aces, we'd want to tailor our rotation to fight the lineups we face but that's not reality. Reality is that baseball games are hard to win and we want to win a lot of them. I'll take the better pitchers and not give a damn what hand they throw with.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 17, 2016

Rasputin said:
I think this is nonsense. I think the notion that a rotation can be too lefthanded or two righthanded is utter poppycock. Why the heck would it matter?

It might matter because while Fenway may be a good hitters' park for LHH in other respects, it's a significantly better park for HR for RHH. And RHH are also a bit less likely to hit HR (or to hit the ball hard in general) vs. RHP. Put those two factors together, and it's a good idea to minimize the situations where you have LHP starting a whole series for the Sox at home. This (I assume) is why Red Sox teams historically have not stocked up on LHSP in this way.

I'll agree that this shouldn't be treated as significant enough to override clear differences in talent; of course I'd rather have Price than Buchholz, never mind Sale. But when you start to get down to differences like Pomeranz vs. Buchholz, I think it becomes a factor you have to consider.

mauidano · Dec 17, 2016

I'm gonna roll with the old adage that you can never have enough good starting pitching no matter what.

And it seems LHH hit a lot of HR's in Fenway at least the ones wearing the white jersey. Williams, Yaz, Ortiz.

MikeM · Dec 17, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
It might matter because while Fenway may be a good hitters' park for LHH in other respects, it's a significantly better park for HR for RHH. And RHH are also a bit less likely to hit HR (or to hit the ball hard in general) vs. RHP. Put those two factors together, and it's a good idea to minimize the situations where you have LHP starting a whole series for the Sox at home. This (I assume) is why Red Sox teams historically have not stocked up on LHSP in this way.

I'll agree that this shouldn't be treated as significant enough to override clear differences in talent; of course I'd rather have Price than Buchholz, never mind Sale. But when you start to get down to differences like Pomeranz vs. Buchholz, I think it becomes a factor you have to consider.

I think keying in on such a difference in that manner puts too much of an emphasis value on the 2017 season though. The 2018 season is just as big a part of of the current window as 17 is, and unless you believe there is a decent chance we resign Buchholz to a FA type contract only one guy in that equation gives you a projection of still being here.

Right now just isn't really the ideal time you start subtracting from the MLB and multi-year depth imo. Plus a lot can happen outside this current depth debate on the starting pitching between now and sometime time next year. Shooting the bigger bullet right now in the name of lottery tickets, instead of even say saving it for a break glass moment down the line if/when needed, doesn't make a lot of overall sense to me.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 17, 2016

mauidano said:
I'm gonna roll with the old adage that you can never have enough good starting pitching no matter what.

This is either obviously false or obviously trivial. I mean, of course, until your entire roster is filled with the best players in the game at every position, including the bench and bullpen, you could always get better. But in terms of smart resource allocation, it's definitely possible to have more starting pitching than you really need to be competitive, and too little of something else.

And it seems LHH hit a lot of HR's in Fenway at least the ones wearing the white jersey. Williams, Yaz, Ortiz.

Edge cases don't make the best evidence. Also, while Yaz did hit HR slightly better at Fenway than on the road, the other two were clearly hurt by their home park. If Williams had hit HR at home at the same clip he did on the road, he'd have finished with 553 career HR. In Papi's case, the effect is even more dramatic; if he had gone deep at home at the same rate he did on the road, he'd have retired with a 7th-all-time total of 613 HR.

Going beyond individual cases, FG says the Fenway HR park factor for RHH for 2013-2015 was 104; for LHH it was 89. Those numbers made the Sox either 5th or 6th best in the AL for RHH in each of those years, and dead last for LHH. That's right: Fenway is the worst LHH home run park in the AL, and has been in the bottom four (usually in the bottom two) every year that FG has park factors for, going back to 2002.

It's true that having four LHSP would double down on that LHH HR suppression in Fenway and make our home games a dead zone for LH power. Which would be a much bigger plus if there were a lot of LH power in our division. But there doesn't seem to be, aside from Chris Davis.

mulluysavage · Dec 18, 2016

jasail said:
Bullpen:
5 spots seem to be set Kimbrell, Thorn, Ross, Kelly and Wright. So that leaves 4 guys for 2 spots.

Wright was the Sox' most effective pitcher the first half of the season and an all-star. Why do you have him in the BP over Buchholz and/or Pomeranz, the former who was relegated to the BP during the regular season, and the latter who has spent a good portion of his career there?

YTF · Dec 18, 2016

mulluysavage said:
Wright was the Sox' most effective pitcher the first half of the season and an all-star. Why do you have him in the BP over Buchholz and/or Pomeranz, the former who was relegated to the BP during the regular season, and the latter who has spent a good portion of his career there?

I hope there will be quite a spirited competition in spring training for the 5th slot in the rotation and though I have no ill will against him, part of me wants to see Wright in the pen. If he can give an inning or two 3-4 times a week when necessary (which hopefully isn't often) that would be huge in situations where the pen might be over taxed. You hope you don't find yourself in that situation often with Sale, Price and Porcello in the rotation, but Price has been known to be somewhat of a slow starter and Rodriquez has in the past had issues with pitch counts early in games. If he is close to last season's form, seeing hitters having to adjust to Wright's knuckle ball after any of the Sox starters could be fun. If he's not needed in the rotation I think Wright out of the pen can add a huge boost to the over all pitching staff. Also though I don't see it as a primary reason to move him, IF the concerns about grip in humid or wet weather are as big a deal as some seemed to have made it, that can be better managed out of the pen.

Adrian's Dome · Dec 19, 2016

mulluysavage said:
Wright was the Sox' most effective pitcher the first half of the season and an all-star. Why do you have him in the BP over Buchholz and/or Pomeranz, the former who was relegated to the BP during the regular season, and the latter who has spent a good portion of his career there?

Because the former will likely be gone and the latter is likely a better and more consistent SP? And Wright is the logical choice for the pen as he doesn't require as much (if any) stretching out to take over the 6th starter role, and can easily cover multiple innings on short notice in case of a starter blowup?

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 19, 2016

To me the one obvious thing here is that Pomeranz should go to the pen.

1) Of the four guys vying for two rotation slots, he has by far the longest and most successful track record as a reliever;
2) He has a significant platoon split over his career; he is just fair vs. RHH (.735 OPS), but deadly vs. LHH (.550 OPS). Putting him in the pen allows Farrell to use him strategically with his platoon advantage in mind.
3) The pen is short of quality LH arms;
4) See earlier arguments against four LHP in the rotation.

I think the argument against Pomeranz in relief boils down to "don't tell me we traded Anderson Espinoza for a LOOGY!" Which is silly.

Once Pomeranz is in the pen, it boils down to Buchholz/Edro/Wright for two slots, and you have to decide whether the loser of that battle goes to the pen as well, or gets traded. EdRo has no relief track record whatsoever, at any level. He belongs in a rotation. So it's Wright vs. Buchholz for the last slot, with the loser of that battle either going to the pen or getting traded, unless the Sox decide to trade EdRo or (foolishly, I think) demote him to relieve the logjam.

phenweigh · Dec 19, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
To me the one obvious thing here is that Pomeranz should go to the pen.

1) Of the four guys vying for two rotation slots, he has by far the longest and most successful track record as a reliever;
2) He has a significant platoon split over his career; he is just fair vs. RHH (.735 OPS), but deadly vs. LHH (.550 OPS). Putting him in the pen allows Farrell to use him strategically with his platoon advantage in mind.
3) The pen is short of quality LH arms;
4) See earlier arguments against four LHP in the rotation.

I think the argument against Pomeranz in relief boils down to "don't tell me we traded Anderson Espinoza for a LOOGY!" Which is silly.

Once Pomeranz is in the pen, it boils down to Buchholz/Edro/Wright for two slots, and you have to decide whether the loser of that battle goes to the pen as well, or gets traded. EdRo has no relief track record whatsoever, at any level. He belongs in a rotation. So it's Wright vs. Buchholz for the last slot, with the loser of that battle either going to the pen or getting traded, unless the Sox decide to trade EdRo or (foolishly, I think) demote him to relieve the logjam.

You're starting to convince me. But only if there is no trade. I like the idea of Wright in the pen because I believe he is best suited (needs less stretching out) to take a spot start if/when needed. To me that's the most important factor when deciding what is in the best interest of the team. Then if a starter needs to head to the DL for an extended period, Wright can take a spot start or two while Pom gets stretched out.

In my lifetime · Dec 19, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
To me the one obvious thing here is that Pomeranz should go to the pen.

1) Of the four guys vying for two rotation slots, he has by far the longest and most successful track record as a reliever;
2) He has a significant platoon split over his career; he is just fair vs. RHH (.735 OPS), but deadly vs. LHH (.550 OPS). Putting him in the pen allows Farrell to use him strategically with his platoon advantage in mind.
3) The pen is short of quality LH arms;
4) See earlier arguments against four LHP in the rotation.

I think the argument against Pomeranz in relief boils down to "don't tell me we traded Anderson Espinoza for a LOOGY!" Which is silly.

Once Pomeranz is in the pen, it boils down to Buchholz/Edro/Wright for two slots, and you have to decide whether the loser of that battle goes to the pen as well, or gets traded. EdRo has no relief track record whatsoever, at any level. He belongs in a rotation. So it's Wright vs. Buchholz for the last slot, with the loser of that battle either going to the pen or getting traded, unless the Sox decide to trade EdRo or (foolishly, I think) demote him to relieve the logjam.

I would think it will work differently from this scenario, with the trade dictating the rotation. The RS will analyze possible trade offers over the next few months for each of the 4, Clay/Wright/Pomeranz/Edro, while having a relative value assigned to each pitcher (considering projected performance, salary, years under control, etc). Then they will trade the pitcher or two who brings back the most relative to their value to the team. At that point they fill the rotation/potential spot in the pen with the pitchers who remain. If Clay is one of the pitchers who stays, it would seem more likely that only 1 of the other 3 would be traded, since it would be likely that he is gone after this season and that the remaining two would be needed in 2018. That being said, I would think it is most likely that Clay is the pitcher traded and that the return will be more than a lottery-type prospect, but certainly not a windfall either. Something like either 2 #25-60 prospects, a good 7th or 8th inning reliever under team control for 1 or 2 years,or an above average DH.

However, if the RS don't get any offers they deem as reasonable for any of the 4 pitchers, then they will have the aforementioned rotation decisions to consider.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 19, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
I think the argument against Pomeranz in relief boils down to "don't tell me we traded Anderson Espinoza for a LOOGY!" Which is silly.

I'm against it because I think he's just flat out better than Buch, Wright and EdRod. He struck out a career high 26.5% of batters faced while moving to the rotation from the bullpen last season. His main issue in his time with Boston was the long ball which seems to be an issue with a lot of pitchers when they first arrive in Boston (David Price, Rick Porcello). Pomeranz was also at a career high in innings so fatigue could have played a role. That and he wasn't really that bad anyway. He started 13 games for the Sox and gave up 2 runs or fewer in 8 of them, 3 runs in another. 2 of his clunkers were also in September which could add credence to the fatigue excuse.

Although, I will say a Pomeranz, Kelly, Thornburg, Kimbrel bullpen has the potential to be phenomenal. I'm just really high on Pomeranz as a starter.

Savin Hillbilly · Dec 19, 2016

bosox79 said:
I'm against it because I think he's just flat out better than Buch, Wright and EdRod. \

Better at what? Not being flippant; it matters. What he needs to be better at than those guys is being a starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox. What he did as a starter in San Diego, or as a reliever in Oakland, is not irrelevant, but needs to be parsed.

Pomeranz is a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer when it comes to HR/FB vs. RHH. In good pitcher's parks, he's been decent: 14.3% and 10.3% in Oakland, 16.1% in San Diego. In Fenway he became a gopher ball machine. Apparently he lives on the warning track, and at Fenway, the warning track isn't deep enough. His HR/FB at home vs. RHH in a Sox uniform was a ghastly, wait-what-did-you-say 41.2%. (Versus LHH, it was a nice, normal 11.1%.)

Maybe this is SSS stuff, and given a chance to learn the Fenway ropes he'll do better vs. RHH. But I wouldn't count on it. Fenway has a way of refracting talent into sharp, specific bands, for good or ill. In a vanilla pitcher's park where speed and contact matters most, Carl Crawford was a good hitter. Fenway exposed his weaknesses. Pomeranz may be a similar case, except that unlike with Crawford, we have a way of mitigating the Fenway kryptonite, and that's keeping him away from dangerous RHH. In order to do that, we have to keep him in the pen.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 19, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
Better at what? Not being flippant; it matters. What he needs to be better at than those guys is being a starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox. What he did as a starter in San Diego, or as a reliever in Oakland, is not irrelevant, but needs to be parsed.

Pomeranz is a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer when it comes to HR/FB vs. RHH. In good pitcher's parks, he's been decent: 14.3% and 10.3% in Oakland, 16.1% in San Diego. In Fenway he became a gopher ball machine. Apparently he lives on the warning track, and at Fenway, the warning track isn't deep enough. His HR/FB at home vs. RHH in a Sox uniform was a ghastly, wait-what-did-you-say 41.2%. (Versus LHH, it was a nice, normal 11.1%.)

Maybe this is SSS stuff, and given a chance to learn the Fenway ropes he'll do better vs. RHH. But I wouldn't count on it. Fenway has a way of refracting talent into sharp, specific bands, for good or ill. In a vanilla pitcher's park where speed and contact matters most, Carl Crawford was a good hitter. Fenway exposed his weaknesses. Pomeranz may be a similar case, except that unlike with Crawford, we have a way of mitigating the Fenway kryptonite, and that's keeping him away from dangerous RHH. In order to do that, we have to keep him in the pen.

If you "parse" out his Colorado Rockies stats:
975 PA vs R .219/.296/.369
363 PA vs L .210/.278/.299

That's 2014-2016. I'm not really sure his time with Colorado is all that significant, especially if what he did with SD and Oakland needs to be parsed. I'm also not buying his 41.2% HR/FB rate to hold up but call me crazy. A .665 OPS against R is better than what Rick Porcello did last year.

Mueller's Twin Grannies · Dec 20, 2016

I'm in the camp of putting Pomeranz in the 'pen and think the notion of "we traded a top prospect for a LOOGY" is silly at best and short-sighted at worst. If Pomeranz helps them win a title or two in that role, is the trade then worth it? What level of return evens out the trade in terms of potential future contributions from Espinoza?

I'm also for putting Buchholz in the 'pen to start the season in a swingman role, like Arroyo a few years back, and then moving him at the deadline when pitching is typically worth more. Do they necessarily have to make a move before spring training?

MikeM · Dec 20, 2016

Mueller's Twin Grannies said:
I'm also for putting Buchholz in the 'pen to start the season in a swingman role, like Arroyo a few years back, and then moving him at the deadline when pitching is typically worth more. Do they necessarily have to make a move before spring training?

Yes.

Although I guess if you are fine with potentially keeping him in the pen to start the season, it then depends on just how much "wait, why isn't EE in this lineup again if the alternative has us blowing $18m of the X amount he got on Moreland/BP Buchholz in year one?" commentary you really want to read through over the course of this season and next.

Rovin Romine · Dec 20, 2016

MikeM said:
I think keying in on such a difference in that manner puts too much of an emphasis value on the 2017 season though. The 2018 season is just as big a part of of the current window as 17 is, and unless you believe there is a decent chance we resign Buchholz to a FA type contract only one guy in that equation gives you a projection of still being here.

Right now just isn't really the ideal time you start subtracting from the MLB and multi-year depth imo. Plus a lot can happen outside this current depth debate on the starting pitching between now and sometime time next year. Shooting the bigger bullet right now in the name of lottery tickets, instead of even say saving it for a break glass moment down the line if/when needed, doesn't make a lot of overall sense to me.

Late to the party on this, but it seems to me there's a lot of talk in this thread and others about our narrow window, or GFIN mentality vis-a-vis our prospects. However, to cross post this from teh EE thread, here's the Cot's list of Sox Contracts:
The core of young players starts thinning out like so:
Xander - FA in 2020.
Betts - 2021
JBJ - 2021
Leon - 2021
Vaz - 2021
Swihart - 2022
10D - 2023?

The rotation starts thinning out like so:
Buch - 2018
Price - 2018 (2022)
Pomeranz - 2019
Porcello - 2020
Sale - 2020
Wright - 2021
E-Rod - 2022

We're set for the 2017 season.
We're set for the 2018 season. (Even if Price opts out (we then have his 30M to apply to acquiring a long term SP in the very very talent rich 2018 class).
We're set for the 2019 season.
In 2020, we'll have the batting core, possibly minus Xander, but the pitching will have to be dealt with, possibly via extensions or the 2018 FA class or such.
In 2021, all bets are off.

So, basically we've got a solid 4 year window, and further out than that is pretty much approaching the "who knows anyway" zone. I'm sure there will be signings, trades, injuries, over/under performance in those years. There will always be holes to be plugged. However, this is not a roster that's set up for a GFIN one/two year dash, and I don't see how anyone can (nowadays) have any real plan that starts to kick in 5 years down the road. One could have a "bubble of good prospects/augmented with good FA signings" period, but it's important to realize we're in that period right now.

MartyBarrettMVP · Dec 20, 2016

pjr · Dec 20, 2016

Buchholz indeed goes to phils
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 2m 2 minutes ago

Minneapolis Millers · Dec 20, 2016

Rovin Romine said:
...
We're set for the 2017 season.
We're set for the 2018 season. (Even if Price opts out (we then have his 30M to apply to acquiring a long term SP in the very very talent rich 2018 class)....

Just a question/clarification: Isn't Price's opt-out after 2018? So 2018 would then be fully "set," right?

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