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Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady 2018: Still Proving It

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by InstaFace, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    We have to be really careful about ascribing causes to small changes in low-probability events like INTs. There is statistically no difference between throwing 8 INTs in 581 pass attempts and 11 in 570 even though it looks like a lot more. That kind of random variation is totally normal. The fact that we can point to specific ones as especially fluky reinforces the point that stuff just happens and we read too much into small fluctuations in low-probability events at our own peril.

    QB performance varies far more year-to-year than people want to admit. Matthew Stafford suffered a far more dramatic dropoff than Brady, at the age of 30 when he should be right in his prime. Carson Wentz' TD rate dropped more. Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill (from 2016), Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, all had similar or worse declines in ANY/A. There is a lot of variation. We ascribe narratives to it where convenient (Wentz, Tannehill returning from injury; Keenum changing teams; age for Brady; regression from Bortles), and those may be true at least in part, but there's also just a lot of fluctuation here. We understand this a lot better in baseball; no one would feel the need to force a narrative on Mookie hitting, say, .305/.390/.525 next year instead of reprising his MVP campaign. Why is it so different for QBs?

    EDIT: I also don't want to dismiss the possibility there is age-related decline. The red zone performance in particular is a concern I think, though there are team-wide issues there (they might be the worst goal-line rushing team in the league). I'm agnostic. I do think the statistical case laid out by Tanier is pretty weak.
     
  2. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    The interceptions are important because of the passer rating stat, which a lot of people use to measure passing effectiveness.

    Here's Brady's 2018 stats:
    375-570 (65.8%), 4,355 yds, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating

    Here's Brady's 2018 stats if you turn just four (not even all) of his bobbled INTs into completions (not even touchdowns, which one of them could have been):
    379-570 (66.5%), 4,400 yds, 29 td, 7 int, 101.5 rating

    That stat line would have looked remarkably similar to his 2017 stat line, in which he won the league MVP:
    385-581 (66.3%), 4,577 yds, 32 td, 8 int, 102.2 rating

    And we wouldn't be talking about him having a down year.

    So instead of being 12th in the NFL in passer rating, he'd have finished 8th. Just with that one little adjustment from passes we KNOW shouldn't have been interceptions. Now it's true that other QBs could have had the same situation. The point is simply that interceptions, in the passer rating formula, carry a TON of weight. It's not like a baseball player having four hits turn into outs by unlucky plays (or lucky plays by the fielders).
     
  3. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I think we've gone about as far as we can on this---

    I agree that he seemed to have more fluky INTs than normal this year, but I completely get why others don't think you can just wipe those out without looking at other things. I disagree a little bit, but who cares?

    The 2 sides of this argument are "Brady is top 5" versus "Brady is top 9" or whatever. That line is so small to be meaningless.

    It's all somewhat interesting to me, but I don't think anyone is changing anyone else's mind at this point.
     
  4. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Agreed. And I'm not arguing he didn't have a down year. He did. The real stats are what they are. I just think those that are saying, oh man his numbers are way down, are not quite seeing the whole picture. A handful of very fluky plays that he normally doesn't have, and his numbers look pretty standard for Brady. Even the 11-5 record feels fluky. Brady contributed to that by making some uncharacteristically bad throws and decisions that cost them points vs. Pit and Mia, but obviously despite all that, they should have beaten the Dolphins if not for a once in a generation kind of play and if that doesn't happen, the Pats finish with their usual 12-4 record. But still...it happened, and his interceptions all happened. And he's not TOM F-ING BRADY maybe, but he's still Tom F-ing Brady and that's still pretty damned good.
     
  5. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    I don't understand why somebody didn't tell him to rest the ankle.
     
  6. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Bahahaha. I was up super late doing a deep dive in my emails and my arguments over Tom Brady being attractive with my wife have been going on since we were dating.

    [​IMG]

    Made me laugh. I just want my wife to think he’s hot.

    EDIT:The referenced photo:

    [​IMG]
     
    #406 brandonchristensen, Jan 10, 2019 at 1:47 PM
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2019 at 10:53 PM
  7. SeoulSoxFan

    SeoulSoxFan Dope Dope

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    Terrific article from the WP on Brady and how he builds camaraderie with everyone on the team:

    "Wide receiver Damoun Patterson, 24, joined the Patriots’ practice squad in November. On his first day, Brady held a door open for him, which was “kind of shocking to me,” Patterson said. The next day, Brady approached Patterson and asked, “What’s up, man? What’s your name?”
    “That was kind of a dream,” Patterson said."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...riots-year-old-quarterback-relates-teammates/
     
  8. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    If he didn’t hold a door open for someone, wouldn’t he just be an inconsiderate dick? I’m sure he’s an awesome teammate and leader but I’m not giving him extra credit for a lot of this silly stuff.
     
  9. azsoxpatsfan

    azsoxpatsfan lurker

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    I know passing stats have exploded since 2007 but I still think it’s funny
     
  10. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    I thought of that too, but it’s probably a matter of how far behind Patterson was. If he’s a couple of steps behind and the door might have even hit him in the face if he didn’t get his hands up, yeah, dick. But, Brady was more likely 10-15 feet ahead and didn’t have to hold the door at all, but he did.
     
  11. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Even with exploding passing stats, that's one year removed from Brady's 2007 campaign.

    How the heck did that win MVP?
     
  12. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    This is how it went down with Patterson:

     
  13. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    I just looked through the stats and standings, there were no great seasons. Maybe AP could have won with his 1,700 rushing yards and 10 TDs for a first place Vikings team but there was nothing historic about those numbers and it is tough for a RB to win. Brees threw for a bunch of yardage and TDs but the Saints finished 8-8 and in last place in their division. Kurt Warner had a case throwing for over 4,500 yards and 30 TDs for a 9-7 Cardinals team that made a Super Bowl run (but no one saw that coming, and the vote happens before the playoffs). Philip Rivers had a pretty good year with over 4,000 yards, 34 TDs, and 11 picks, but the Chargers only went 8-8 (though they did win the division on tie breakers).

    Honestly it's not that different than 2017 with Brady - I don't think 2017 was one of Brady's top 5 seasons to be honest, and he won MVP more by default than anything.

    Edit: if I am ranking Brady's seasons:
    1) 2007
    2) 2010
    3) 2016
    T-4) 2015, 2017, maybe 2012

    Edit 2: Tom Curran responded that he voted for Chad Pennington. Not sure if that is true, but his case was Pennington came to Miami and took them from 1-15 to 11-5 and a division title, and had a higher passer rating than Manning.
     
  14. azsoxpatsfan

    azsoxpatsfan lurker

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    He pretty clearly shouldn’t have. But not exactly surprising that Peyton got undeserved recognition.

    Edit: it’s not letting me post the picture that I want to be Manning was fifth in rating. Rivers was first a full 10 points ahead of manning while throwing for more yards, more tds, and fewer picks. Brees threw for more tds and over 1000 more yards but threw 17 picks. Like stated above, no truly great seasons, but at least 3 or 4 qbs alone who deserved it over manning
     
  15. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    The hill I'll die on is that Brady was as good a quarterback in 2006 as he was in 2007. But 2007 he had two all pros with Stallworth and Gaffney as arguably the best 3/4 WR in history, and 2006 he had a bunch of shit that never played in the league again. And for a similar reason 2009 was the worst (easily) since his first couple years.

    06/07
    2016
    2011
    2010
     
  16. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Brady's social media people are really great at what they do. Forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere.

     
  17. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    2011 gotta be in there. Career high in yards, 39 TD / 12 INT, carried maybe what was his worst defense to a Super Bowl. I think you're selling 2017 short, by the way; the offense was the best in the league and really covered for a sub-par D. But you're right that it doesn't really stand out compared to a number of other MVP-caliber Brady seasons. He's just that good.

    2009 had a lowkey terrible receiving corps. Sure, you've got Moss and Welker, but Ben Watson was the only other player with even 400 yards and he barely cleared that mark (404). Sam Aiken was the #3 WR most of the year; that's like if Matt Slater was the #3 WR. It probably wasn't Brady's best year, either, but that team was kind of a mess.
     
  18. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Sure. The point was more Brady won in 2017 not because he had some amazing year but more because the rest of the league didn’t produce a viable candidate
     
  19. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    This true. That said, his 2017 playoff run was fucking unreal, with his SB performance arguably his best in the big game.
     
  20. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    I would probably phrase it more than he was the best player in the league, as he often is, but someone didn't compile the kind of gaudy statistics that often net MVP (while not necessarily actually being better). Consider that the Patriots' passing offense in 2017 generated more expected points added than the Chiefs' did this year.
     
  21. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    Oh yea. Seems like the first of the reclamation WR years. To call Joey Galloway a corpse would have been an insult to corpses. And Fred Taylor, Adalius Thomas, Shawn Springs, Derick Burgess.

    That team had an absurd amount of once upon a time pro bowlers at the tail end of their careers.
     
  22. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    2009 was also Brady’s return from missing a year with the torn ACL. He definitely wasn’t 100%. Plus the defense was old and slow, and the offense very one dimensional. Without Brady, Walker , and Moss, you would be looking at. 3-13 team.

    I still recall Borges being really incensed that people thought Galloway and Adalius Thomas were finished. He really wanted to blame the coach for their failures.
     
  23. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Sure I am good with that
     
  24. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Announcers just did a nice little quick analysis of the 1st down pass just before the TD just now (1:43 in the 2nd q).

    If this is TB12 falling off a cliff, I’d say he’s on a hang glider and found an updraft.

    He’s quite good.
     
  25. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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    Anyone still think Brady has lost a step?

    Didn't think so.
     
  26. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Better find a QB for 2019
     
  27. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Max Kellerman, who earlier in the week tweeted about how Brady was obviously declining and how anyone would take Mahomes, Luck and Rivers over Brady: giving credit where credit is due:

    Have to admit I was wrong about this game. We are watching the best who ever did it, and he still got it. What a performance by Belichick.
     
  28. azsoxpatsfan

    azsoxpatsfan lurker

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    Brady asked in his press conference if he took extra motivation from all the talk about the cliff and the end of the dynasty. His answer: “I just like winning”
     
  29. Bleedred

    Bleedred Member SoSH Member

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  30. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Tom Brady's last six playoff games:

    2016 season (2017 AFCCG): 32-42 (76.2%), 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating
    2016 season (2017 SB): 43-62 (69.4%), 466 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 95.2 rating
    2017 season (2018 Div Rd): 35-53 (66.0%), 337 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 102.5 rating
    2017 season (2018 AFCCG): 26-38 (68.4%), 290 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 108.4 rating
    2017 season (2018 SB): 28-48 (58.3%), 505 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 115.4 rating
    2018 season (2019 Div Rd): 33-44 (75.0%), 343 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 106.5 rating

    TOTALS: 197-287 (68.6%), 2,325 yds (8.1 y/a), 14 td, 1 int, 107.8 rating

    I mean, that's SICK. His *worst* game of the bunch was the greatest comeback in SB history.
     
  31. GeorgeCostanza

    GeorgeCostanza Member SoSH Member

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    Project those numbers for a full season and it’s 37/6 6,200
     
  32. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Yep. And over those six games, the Patriots are averaging 33.8 points a game.
     
  33. McBride11

    McBride11 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Is Hoyer retiring?? Terrible news
     
  34. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Any reason you wouldn't include the other game from 2016 playoffs? I mean, it was a week before the first game you cited.

    2016 season (2016 DIV vs HOU): 18-38 (47.4%), 287 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 68.6 rating

    I wouldn't call that an absolute stinker (IIRC, one of the INTs wasn't really his fault), and of course we won the game going away because his opposing number was Brock fucking Osweiler and the D had an epic second half and Dion Lewis had 3 TDs including a 98-yard kickoff return. But it's a relevant game, if you don't want to be accused of cherry-picking. I think your point stands - he's had an incredible run of playoff games the last few years - but that game happened too, in the same time window.
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Because he's showing his last 6? It's not like he's leaving out a game smack in the middle and doing the "ignoring that one crappy game" thing.

    It's like saying "Mookie hitting .456 in his last 7 games" and someone saying "Yeah, but he was 0-6 in the game before that."

    Well, okay.
     
  36. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    But the game prior to that one wasn't a year (or years) before, it was a week before. It's clearly just as relevant to his performance timeline as the others right after it.

    Whatever, I was reading that post and thought "hey, where's the Divisional one? why isn't that there?", and figured others would ask the same.

    ---

    I'd instead characterize the situation as this: when the situation gets desperate or the game context calls for it, Tom Brady has a "god mode" gear he can switch into that is unlike anything we've ever seen in the NFL. Maybe Jim Brown in his prime, I don't know. The last 3 super bowls he's been to are clear testament to that, as is his near comeback in the 2015 AFCCG and several other games. It's Pedro getting out of a final-inning jam, or Serena Williams getting angry at herself and just blowing someone away. When Brady decides "fuck this, I'm bringing out the BFG", as long as he's got a healthy #1 option like Edelman or Gronk, he can take over a game before the defense can even catch their breath. The sight should give you chills, whether you're rooting for him or against him. We had no business even being in the game against Philly last year, and yet there he was, 505 yards of passing, with a Lombardi waiting for him at the other endzone, like Neo facing the agents in The Matrix. To say nothing of the previous year's super bowl, whose 2nd half was so astonishing I still have difficulty putting it into words. Yeah, sometimes the OL whiffs and there's a strip sack, sometimes Moss just can't quite high-point that 70-yards-in-the-air pass, but more often than not, Brady's God Mode breaks hearts and crushes fools.

    I dunno if he quite got to that level of focus yesterday - it wasn't really needed, we did a lot more running and misdirection. I think we saw it Week 6. But that extra gear, more than anything, is what really makes watching him special for me. I think it's clear that that killer instinct, that "game slowing down for him" level of focus, is still just as sharp as it ever was.
     
  37. norm from cheers

    norm from cheers Member SoSH Member

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  38. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I mean, I guess. But he's not necessarily saying it's indicative of anything--he's saying "Holy shit, his last 6 postseason games are nuts."
     
  39. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    That's exactly it. Your Mookie example was spot on. I mean, as a predictor of NEXT week, what's more relevant: Brady's last 3 years' worth of *postseason* performances, or his last 6 games of *this* REGULAR season? I dunno.

    I'm just saying that in his last six playoff games, he's been unfreakingreal.
     
  40. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member

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    Tom Brady has 28 playoff wins, number two on the list is Joe Montana with 16.
    If we were to only count Brady's playoff wins by 10 or more points Brady would be tied for first with Montana -16.

    UNBELIEVABLE. The man is just so far above every other QB in NFL history.
     
  41. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    I only count 14 10 point wins (03 IND, 04 IND/PIT, 05 JAX, 06 NYJ, 07 JAX, 11 DEN, 12 HOU, 13 IND, 14 IND, 16 PIT/HOU, 17 TEN, 18 LAC).

    I see 3 more by a touchdown or more (01 PIT, 07 SD, 15 KC).
     
  42. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member

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    Ok - I could be wrong, if so I apologize. I was listening to Rich Eisen this morning and he gave out the numbers. Looks like maybe he was incorrect.
     
  43. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    No worries. Perhaps he'll add a few more in next 3 weeks.
     
  44. Rook05

    Rook05 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I respectfully request this thread be renamed

    Tom Brady: Still Slinging It

     
  45. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Fuck you for bringing up The Scottish Game.

    Even a hint of that game brings that visual to mind, and makes my stomach turn. It's weird how I still have a visceral reaction to that memory.

    In the sharpest of contrasts to the above, this thing with Brady and Bledsoe still makes me tingly.
     
  46. NortheasternPJ

    NortheasternPJ Member SoSH Member

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    It's weird seeing Brady when he was a normal human being. Still love the guy and he's a better player now, but that guy would never have done the creepy mattress commercial.
     
  47. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Son just sent me this tribute from 50.



    TB used to game day to in da Club.
     
  48. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    Dak Prescott has played 3 full seasons, 48 games. He's thrown 10,876 yards in his career.

    If Brady throws for 307 yards against the Chiefs, he'll have thrown for more yards in the playoffs than Dak has in his career.
     
  49. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Just read this article today:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tom...patriots-bargain-2018-7?utm_source=reddit.com

    Brady has sacrificed some $60 million in pay from the Patriots over the course of his career. He can do it comfortably because Giselle makes a billion dollars a year and it's not like Brady is getting paid peanuts. But in a league where everyone is trying to make max money, Brady giving up $$ has helped build a better team. A totally underrated aspect of his greatness.
     
  50. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    This contributes to the accumulation of wins and bites at the apple in a big way.

    Every time that I hear someone push back that Manning or Rodgers didn't have a great team around them, I think about this. Part of the reason why Brady usually has a great team around him is because of Brady. He provides a good amount of salary flexibility. He also helps develop the guys on offense by being another coach on the field, in the meeting rooms, and in the weight room. It's no accident.
     

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