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Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady 2018: Still Proving It

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by InstaFace, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

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    Everything in that article is lacking context. Some of the stats he uses have an INVERSE correlation to being good.

    Tanier also ran onto Twitter to to a premature victory lap/taunt Pats fans before that thing was published. While he may be sincere in some of the stuff, he's also very obviously trolling for clicks based on his behavior.

    Michael Hurley has a rejoinder to that Tanier piece:

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2019/01/08/a-tom-brady-is-old-take-is-wrong-patriots/
     
  2. CreightonGubanich

    CreightonGubanich Member SoSH Member

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    The biggest component that was ignored by the author is personnel. Last season Brady's primary weapons were Gronk and Brandon Cooks; this year it's been Edelman and James White. Cooks is gone and Gronk has been a shell of himself. Of course he's going to be throwing shorter passes.

    It's possible to debate which is the cause and which is the effect (i.e. does Brady throw shorter because that's where his weapons are, or are the players closer to the line of scrimmage the most utilized because Brady's lost arm strength), and I'm not saying that Brady's not in decline. But you can't have that conversation without taking a look at the weapons in the Pats offense.
     
  3. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Tanier's the guy who compared Brady's arm to "overcooked fettuccine" earlier in the season. Eventually he's going to be right, I guess.

    Brady's stats are basically where they were 2013-2015. Tanier makes a big deal that this is a "season of record passing statistics," but that stuff varies a lot year-to-year; hell, 2017 was a down year for passing. On their face, the stats are not a reason for concern.
     
  4. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

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    30,151
    Tanier claims Gronk's healthy this year and thus it's a point against Brady, without noting that Gronk looks like he's carrying a piano on his back and if anyone's DONE it's Gronk.
     
  5. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    And as I've pointed out (I'm not the only one), Brady's had a strikingly large number of interceptions that literally were perfect passes right in the hands of his receivers that they bobbled away into the hands of defenders. You change those stats accordingly and Brady's results-oriented stat line looks MUCH better.
     
  6. Smiling Joe Hesketh

    Smiling Joe Hesketh All Hail King Boron Dope

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    30,151
  7. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    This is why I brought up (and got killed for saying it) Brady missing this year's OTAs -- there seems to be more execution problems in general with the team this year than in seasons' past. And that's certainly not necessarily on Brady -- or on the offense. But if, as Curran and others have pointed out, Brady did spend less time this year working with his receivers, starting with OTAs, it could certainly be a factor in the reduced performance. Not *the* factor -- but one of them.

    (I would also add that I place no value judgement in this decision if it is true -- while maybe he wanted to spend time with his family or was "mad at Belichick," it's more likely that Brady wanted to put less stress on his body this year for whatever reason)

    In general, given all the factors at play this year, I feel like we are going to need to see a lot more data--at least another season with comparable weapons and so forth--before we can claim in a Sherman-esque way that Brady is in serious decline.
     
  8. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I agree. But it obviously would stand to reason that his performance will be declining. I mean, it's unprecedented that he would perform at this level at this age. It's just never been done before. So the onus would be on those believing that he is NOT declining to make the case that he's not, given the stats and given his age.

    I think he's declining, but is still a top-notch QB fully capable of winning a game "on his own" (as much as any QB can).
     
  9. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    I think he might be declining (slightly) but the line took a step back in pass protection this year and the receivers are not the same caliber or health as last year. No secret they tried to trade for Tate mid-season too. I am not nearly as concerned as I was about TB12 as I was earlier this season.
     
  10. johnmd20

    johnmd20 literally like ebola Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    And while he's no Brady, Eli is the same way. The fact that he's never had an injury is almost hard to believe. He is just a rag doll who takes whatever hits come and it doesn't matter. It's a rare skill to play in the NFL for a long time and never have a major injury, even for QBs.

    Brady is the pinnacle of that, due to his greatness.
     
  11. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Well, he did burn Atlanta to the ground.
     
  12. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    One of those columns that is answered with “when” not “if”. People don’t mind being early because there is no penalty in this industry for being wrong.

    What’s changed? I think the days of surrounding him with any old thing and expecting chicken salad — are over. Going forward, they are going to have to do a better job of surrounding him with + talent.
     
  13. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I'm perfectly fine with their offense the next couple of years being a big-time rushing attack, a solid defense, and a few nice receivers, and run a ton of play action.
     
  14. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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  15. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Spoiler alert: It's neither fascinating nor a debate. It was on Twitter, though, so NBC gets 1/3.

    Curran was polite and a little snarky, Tanier was obnoxious and very snarky, neither of them made much sense. Hurley's rebuttal was 10x better and more readable. Put the tweets down, old guys. Stick to what you know.
     
  16. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Can you post a link to Hurley please?
     
  17. Vandalman

    Vandalman Member SoSH Member

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  18. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Ha

    Edit: thanks - great read
     
    #368 tims4wins, Jan 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2019
  19. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    That was a really fun and good article by Hurley.
     
  20. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    Meh, you’re being a little harsh on Curran tho I agree Hurley had the best argument in the bunch. Which makes sense because he wrote an article and was able to better articulate how injured Gronk, suspended Edelman and so forth led to more running back touches and fewer passes downfield. Those were mostly points Curran made in the thread albeit without the awesome comparison to the likes of HOF-er Jameis Winston, LOL.
     
  21. Ralphwiggum

    Ralphwiggum Member SoSH Member

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    Jesus, I'm fine with an article pointing out that Brady wasn't as good this year as last year, I mean, it's true. But that Tanier article was garbage and completely lacking context. Hurley does a good job showing why the conclusions that Tanier draws from the "next-gen" stats don't hold up. But also, Gronk is a "familiar target", sure, but clearly not close to the same guy he was a couple of years ago. And the Pats lost a game to the Dolphins which proves . . . oh wait Brady threw for 358 yards and 3 scores in the game, the Pats put up 33 points and lost on a fluke last play that had nothing to do with Brady?

    And then he preemptively goads Pats fans who have the temerity of poking holes in the trash article he posted. What a dick. Why do so many in the sports media suck so badly?
     
  22. Mystic Merlin

    Mystic Merlin Member SoSH Member

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    He took a bunch of fancy sounding numbers (NEXT GENERATION STATZZZZ) he doesn’t understand, and perhaps doesn’t want to understand, to troll people.

    ‘Brady ranked low in relevant-sounding statistic - CLEARLY HES ALL DONE!’

    I guess it worked in the most narrow sense, but yeesh.
     
  23. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    He never seemed to explain why being ranked first in certain categories would even be indicative of a good QB. And beyond that, even if he had, the next step would be explaining IN CONTEXT why someone may be ranked lower and then fashioning your opinion based on that.

    Instead he throws out some stat like "Average distance to first down marker of throws" or something and says "Brady is 25th!!!!" So? Tell me why that's a problem, and then explain why comparatively crappy QBs rank high and Brady is near Drew Brees.
     
  24. Bergs

    Bergs Member SoSH Member

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    That Tanier piece is just amazingly bereft of intellect. Wow.
     
  25. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    (removed partially finished draft of an old post...yknow, so I can preserve the quality post I make below)
    Real ballers go for 1st down every down.
     
    #375 simplyeric, Jan 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2019
  26. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    What would the tangible signs be of a Brady decline? We could say the traditional stats, but (1) he's had seasons like this before when he was much younger, and (2) those stats need to come within the context of all the interceptions that literally went right through his receivers' hands.

    How would we be able to measure a Brady decline? I at least thought that the Tanier piece tried to look at it differently (though he appears to have a strong anti-Brady agenda) from the traditional stats, which is why I found it interesting.

    Can it just be the "eye test"?

    FWIW, here are Brady's 2018 traditional stats and where they rank in all his 17 years (I'm discounting 2000 and 2008 for obvious reasons):

    Comp %: 65.8% (5th best)
    Yards: 4,355 (7th best)
    Touchdowns: 29 (8th best)
    TD %: 5.1% (10th best)
    Interceptions: 11 (8th best)
    Int %: 1.9% (9th best)
    Yds/Att: 7.6 (11th best)
    Adj Yds/Att: 7.8 (8th best)
    Rating: 97.7 (8th best)
    AV: 14 (11th best)

    Brady's regular season averages per game:
    Career: 22.3-34.9 (64.0%), 262.1 yds, 1.92 TD (5.5 TD%), 0.64 int (1.8 int%), 97.6 rating
    2018: 23.4-35.6 (65.8%), 272.2 yds, 1.81 TD (5.1 TD%), 0.69 int (1.9 int%), 97.7 rating

    So by these metrics, it's pretty clear that Brady's 2018 season was essentially right in the middle of his 17 full seasons in the NFL. Not his best by any stretch, but also far far from his worst. And Brady's *worst* season was still damned good for an NFL quarterback. Are his numbers down from his PEAK? Well of course, but his peak stats are off the charts elite HOF stuff. We know he wasn't THAT this year, but he was still....Tom F-ing Brady. Just not TOM F-ING BRADY.
     
  27. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    BBJones, you’re comparing Tom's stats this year to his own lifetime stats. Has his career been long enough that overall QB stats have gotten gradually better so it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison? I think somebody did compare Tom's stats for this year with his peers this year and he was top 5 - 10. In any case, I'll happily take Tom driving the ship going forward.
     
  28. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    That's an article someone would write if they are simply looking at a spreadsheet and not watching the games.
     
  29. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Thought this was a really cool statistic. Since 2006, Brady and the Pats are 31-4 vs. AFC playoff teams at Gillette Stadium(either facing them in reg season when said team made the playoffs or actually in the playoffs). Unfortunately, 3 of the 4 losses are in the playoffs. That makes Brady an insane 14-3 in the playoffs and 17-1 in his last 18 regular season games against AFC playoff teams.

     
    #379 RedOctober3829, Jan 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2019
  30. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    I think 14 of the wins are also in the playoffs, making him 14-3 in the playoffs and 17-1 in the regular season in the above scenarios. Unless I'm misreading you?
     
  31. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Yes, it's a bit of one. So let's talk about Brady in a different way. Here's the league average passer ratings every year from 2001-2018, and then Brady's passer rating in parenthesis.

    2001: 78.5 (86.5, +8.0)
    2002: 80.4 (85.7, +5.3)
    2003: 78.3 (85.9, +7.6)
    2004: 82.8 (92.6, +9.8)
    2005: 80.1 (92.3, +12.2)
    2006: 80.4 (87.9, +7.5)
    2007: 82.6 (117.2, +34.6)
    2009: 83.0 (96.2, +13.2)
    2010: 84.1 (111.0, +26.9)
    2011: 84.3 (105.6, +21.3)
    2012: 85.6 (98.7, +13.1)
    2013: 86.0 (87.3, +1.3)
    2014: 88.9 (97.4, +8.5)
    2015: 90.2 (102.2, +10.0)
    2016: 89.3 (112.2, +22.9)
    2017: 86.9 (102.8, +15.9)
    2018: 92.9 (97.7, +4.8)

    So this year his passer rating was the closest it's ever been to league average other than his 2013 season. And clearly it's a huge step down from the last three seasons, where his passer rating was at least 10 points higher than league average. He had at least five interceptions this year that literally were perfect passes, right in the hands or chest of his receivers, and they bobbled the ball right into the hands of defenders. If those five interceptions were turned into completions (and I don't ever remember Brady having this many INTs like that) for about 50 yards, suddenly his 2018 passer rating is 102.4, and he's at a difference of 9.5 from league average.

    And by the way, here's a group of QBs that all fall #11-15 in passer rating:

    Luck: 98.7
    Brady: 97.7
    Rodgers: 97.6
    Prescott: 96.9
    Roethlisberger: 96.5

    That's not a bad group to be lumped in with.
     
  32. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    35,419
    No you're not misreading me. I was trying to highlight the 1 loss in regular season play and just didn't minus out the playoff wins.
     
  33. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    #tomatocans
     
  34. ernieshore

    ernieshore Member SoSH Member

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    Henry Bushnell of Yahoo Sports revisits Brady's beginnings with the Patriots. Most of this was familiar, but I thought it was still pretty good.

    The genesis of Tom Brady's legend
     
  35. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    In regards to OTAs....it is what it is this year. If it affected them it affected them and we cant know if or how much it did as we are not privy to the internal discussion and we cant put that genie back in the bottle.
    However, I would bet any external bodily part you choose that If Brady feels it impacted the performance, then he will be at OTAs next year. If he doesnt then he will be spending extra time in Brazil with Giselle and the Kids.
     
  36. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    47,673
    BBJones, your Tom vs. the average of his peers year by year says a lot. Now, if he could only win some big post season games.:cool:
     
  37. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Heh yes, well we didn't even get into WINNING, which this year would be a down year for him as well, yet well above league average too.
     
  38. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    That was a fantastic read, very in-depth. Maybe it was familiar to you, but there were a lot of anecdotes and quotes in there that I'd never heard before.
     
  39. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    If it is really true he went to workout at 5am on the Tuesday after the Super Bowl that is nuts.
     
  40. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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  41. CaptainLaddie

    CaptainLaddie dj paul pfieffer SoSH Member

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    25,843
    Lordy, that's a dumb take. And that guy has a lot of dumb takes.

    Edit: do you know what it takes for me to take Skip Bayless' side in argument?!
     
  42. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Wow just watched that Shannon Sharpe rant. That was the dumbest thing I've literally ever heard on just about every level. Is it even worth offering a few points of criticism? Probably not because doing so almost legitimizes Sharpe. But I'm going to do it anyway.

    1. Brady was simply answering a question. He didn't go around "telling everyone everything he does."
    2. Brady never said or implied that he's the only one who takes playoff games seriously.
    3. Why did Sharpe immediately launch into OTHER quarterbacks when Brady never mentioned them?

    Ok I'll stop there. It's just so funny how much Sharpe hates Brady. It's too bad. Sharpe was a phenomenal player but is an inner circle Hall of Fame idiot.
     
  43. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    It's not really a great use of statistics to adjust a guy's rating upward because he threw some fluke interceptions.

    Are we also adjusting the rating downward when he makes a lousy throw and is saved by a great catch? When a defender drops a sure pick?

    The stats are what they are, IMO.
     
  44. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    The stats are what they are, but they don't always tell you how a guy is playing. JBJ was hitting ROCKETS for much of this past season but his babip was super low. Did that mean he was hitting well or not? Well, once his babip normalized, his stats improved dramatically. Half of Brady's picks were passes right into the hands of his receivers. That may not show up in his stats but it's nonetheless true.
     
  45. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not arguing with you about a couple of the picks being fluky. But unless you're going back through all his throws and adjusting them up and down based on fluke results, I don't see how this cherry-picked adjustment is helpful.
     
  46. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I didn't really adjust anything. I laid the stats out as they are. Here's what I said:

    "So this year his passer rating was the closest it's ever been to league average other than his 2013 season. And clearly it's a huge step down from the last three seasons, where his passer rating was at least 10 points higher than league average. He had at least five interceptions this year that literally were perfect passes, right in the hands or chest of his receivers, and they bobbled the ball right into the hands of defenders. If those five interceptions were turned into completions (and I don't ever remember Brady having this many INTs like that) for about 50 yards, suddenly his 2018 passer rating is 102.4, and he's at a difference of 9.5 from league average.

    And by the way, here's a group of QBs that all fall #11-15 in passer rating:

    Luck: 98.7
    Brady: 97.7
    Rodgers: 97.6
    Prescott: 96.9
    Roethlisberger: 96.5"

    So I laid out the numbers, then suggested that Brady played better than his numbers indicated, but then went right back to his actual passer rating. I don't recall Brady ever having had this many fluke interceptions before, and I don't think anyone here can recall that either. So his numbers, while they are what they are, are flukishly bad, and aren't really representative of his actual on-field performance. But his numbers still are what they are and 20 years from now when people are looking at his pro-football-reference page, they'll just see 11 interceptions.
     
  47. simplyeric

    simplyeric aggressively nonsensical SoSH Member

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    Oh my god. I usually find Sharpe to be "entertaining"... I don't really care much about his opinions (nor Bayless's) and honestly don't really watch the show, but sometimes I catch it and am "entertained" in an abstract way.

    But this was just dumb. I couldn't even listen to the whole thing.
     
  48. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    This case really hasn't been made. That's my point.
     
  49. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    Rather than wiping the perfect passes that turned into INTs off the books, it would probably make more sense to adjust those to some kind of league average (whatever that is).

    I think we are still, however, left with a lot of factors going in to Brady’s numbers going down. The Eyeball Test suggests that it was a combination of his receivers being a revolving door (Gordon in, Edelman out, Gronk hurt), his own injury mid season, some bad luck, and age-related decline. It’s going to take more than a single season of data to probably know for sure.

    The only thing we know for sure is that when we can legitimately draw a conclusion that someone here will loudly pronounce that their hypothesis (guess) was right all along.
     
  50. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    I think while it appears Brady's numbers are being victimized by those fluky plays, there are a couple of open questions:

    a.) Were there an equal number of fluky "good outcome" throws where an INT was likely but somehow Brady got away with it?

    b.) How do these fluky plays (both good and bad) compare with past Brady seasons?

    c.) How do these fluky plays compare with other QB's in the league this season?

    Our minds recall those fluky picks because they are notable. But recency bias is a biotch sometimes, and without really analyzing every throw, and then doing the same for other QB's and other Brady seasons, it's hard to draw the conclusion that Brady's numbers this season are flukishly bad.

    Part of the issue here is that Brady's career INT ratio is amazing. Among both active QB's and all time QB's, only Aaron Rodgers (1.5% to 1.8%) has been better. But Brady has thrown 4000 more passes than Rodgers. So a small spike seems large.

    Anyway, we should take this time to enjoy the ride. Brady has set (and likely will continue to set) some records that may not be broken in our lifetimes.
     

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