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Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by InstaFace, Oct 1, 2018.
So an extra 1 throw out of 100 is off target? Decline!!!
I'm not doubting you, but where are you getting this stat from?
ESPN tracks it.
The 21.5% in 2013 stands out. It’s almost as if the stat is correlated to surrounding talent.
Yeah, I'm seeing this as kind of a function of his game. Throwaways are not counted but we see a lot of his throws at the feet of a receiver, purposefully.
"Off-target" throws is kind of a bullshit stat out of context. As many have noted here, there are strategic throwaways, some of which are likely not counted by the ESPN bots that track this, such as the classic Brady throws at the RB's feet, but there are also certainly a goodly number of throws that are "off-target" because the WR zigged when Brady expected him to zag. The nature of the Pat's offensive scheme is pegged to the WR's and QB being on the same page. As we all know, this season had a lot of newcomers where that intuitive communication was not going to be there.
It's not bots. Every game is tracked with video review and double checks. Throwing at the feet of a RB on a busted screen wouldn't be counted.
But his number still isn't really out of line with his career numbers.
But would an intentional low throw to prevent a turnover or his receiver from getting crushed be counted?
Those are trickier. If its a catchable ball, it's not off target. If he bounces it, a little tougher to judge Brady's intent so probably charted as off target.
That's my point. I didn't mean literal robots, I just meant, that it is likely being done by ESPN staffers with very specific rules that define "off-target" vs "catchable" vs "throwaway." My sense is that Brady likely has more than typical number of the latter that end up getting put into the first category. To me, "off-target" is one where Brady would say at the end of the play "my bad," and I bet that he has a much lower percentage of those than 20%.
And, again, the number is just slightly above his career number, but not his career worst. Seems SSS type differences. Not sure this is proof of any kind of decline.
FWIW, PFF grades him out as the #5 overall QB, and the difference between 6th (Rodgers) and 7th (part-time Fitzy) is greater than 6th and 1st (Brees).
Brady is also 6th in ESPN's Total QBR. I should have been clear, wasn't suggesting Brady's issue with off-target throws shows a decline necessarily. More that it's an area where missing throws has cost the team this season. Go back the the Miami game, right before the awful 3rd down sack play, he just completely missed an open Hogan in the back of the end zone. That's 7 pts and a win off the board. Brady just hasn't been as sharp as they've needed him to be given the lack of explosiveness from a clearly laboring Gronk.
I finally know what Gronk looks like running this year. Me, playing indoor soccer when I can't play keeper and gotta lug myself up and down the field.
Clearly putting up 33 points in that game with 358Yds, 8.3YPA, 3TD 0INT, with 77 yards of rushing support (2.6YPC) is just not enough from the man. He needs to be BETTER.
Who says he can’t still compete with the youth!
If he's not there already, I don't think Brady is too far from Tom Seaver's season with the Sox.
You're finally getting it. We demand perfection of Mr. Brady. Anything less, and it's his fault.
To be clear, Brady was responsible for 37 points, but Ghost blew 4 of them. He left the field with a 6 point lead, and 21 seconds on the clock, to an opponent that was receiving a kickoff and had no timeouts. But yeah, he left 7 points out there and cost his team the victory.
Of course some of his games have been better than others. And even the top QBs have bad games. Sometimes he throws to his second read because it's his binky, rather than going to his third, who was more open. Nobody is perfect. But looking at that game in particular and pointing the finger at TB...I just don't get it.
Yup, compared to Brady, Drew Brees, Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, and Aaron Rodgers have been absolutely abysmal the last 4 weeks, but the whole world is focused on Tom Brady and his decline. Not a peep about any of these other guys.
Without seeing the actual details behind the numbers, my guess has always been that Brady's numbers are artificially inflated. When quarterbacks "throw the ball away," most of the time, they are out of the pocket, and tossing it into the bench. A lot of them are doing it on the run.
Brady very, very rarely leaves the pocket, so when he wants to throw a ball away, he has to do it with a receiver in the area, so his throwaways look just like incompletions. He's also one of the few quarterbacks that will rarely throw his receiver into trouble. He will throw balls low to keep from getting his receiver laid out which also decreases the possibility of a tipped ball leading to an interception, he'll throw it to the back shoulder to get them moving in a direction away from the defense so they can get yards after the catch. Based on these numbers, Brady is "off target" with 1 out of every 5 throws. He throws less than 2 incompletions per 5 throws, so based on these numbers, over 70% of his incompletions are "off target." I don't buy it. Not even a little bit. The balls he's "throwing away" plus the drops more than make up 30% of his incompletions.
Aside from Goff, every one of those guys is old enough to be experiencing some age and mileage-related decline. All have been hit a massive number of times. All are closer to 40 than 30.
It's wishcasting, plain and simple.
I know this was a rough week but man the stats from today are awful. Missed the game with family stuff, was it as bad as it looks from just the sheet?
It was one of their best running games ever. That part was good. And the D was excellent.
Edit - Oh, this is the Brady thread. Yeah, passing game was brutal. Gronk looks defunct, too.
Pretty much. Brady wasn't good.
Running game beasted.
Worth noting that Buffalo is one of the best defenses, including passing defense, in the league.
The passing game had zero rhythm, with some fuckups, an inability for anyone but Edelman getting open past 5 yards, and Tom missing some throws under pressure he usually hits, but that’s a good, well coached defense.
They lost their best receiver three days before the game. They ran 47 running plays (for 273 yards) vs. 25 passing plays. On the first interception the receiver has blatantly held and then ran away from the throw. On the second interception the ball literally bounced off the hands of the receiver into the defense. The game was never in doubt after the White TD. Brian Hoyer played the final 7 minutes of the game.
But really, seriously, Brady sucks.
Pats should seriously consider taking a QB in the first round this year, if the opportunity arises.
It’s ok to say he played like shit without jumping off the deep end and claiming he’s cooked. A spade is a spade. He’s human.
Ok but unless it’s Haskins I’m not sure you want to spend a first round pick on the mediocre QBs available in the first. Stick to the board and go BPA for the system. Probably end up with a split on offense and defense... draft is deep on TE WR and DL/Edge. We could use those...
Also Brady has been good this year. Maybe not top 3 but still top 10. I think with better receiving options he will be even better.
Brady sucks was a joke. Sarcasm detector maybe a little off? Unless he was serious and then the block button is your friend.
I’m aware it was sarcasm, but thank you. My point is anything critical of him gets met with it. It’s tiresome at times. He’s going to start having more clunkers, I think people should get used to it.
Edit: I think you were misreading my post.
I agree. It gets really tiresome. I don’t want to derail any further. Just think the first round QB talk is wrong. Not with the stock of QBs who have declared anyway. Maybe we have some big Drew Lock fans on here.
They have way too many holes to take a QB in R1.
Yup, desperately need help at DL, could use speed at LB, need a WR and TE...
Fair enough. He wasn't great. And he does appear to be throwing the ball away way faster this year, either because he's hurt or he's old and doesn't want to take the hits.
But it's also tiresome to say that a comfortable win in a must-win game (assuming they want a bye, and they do) is playing "like shit". He did what he needed to do to win.
You obviously follow college and film a lot, if Haskins declares is he legit? (Not that I agree with the first round sentiment, I’m just curious). I’m fully prepared for a fallow stretch after TB and I’m perfectly fine with that if it means he plays every career game with a Flying Elvis on his helmet.
We've been on borrowed QB time for years. That bill is coming due. Unfortunately there are also other positions that have been overlooked/neglected. Winter is coming.
Hand the ball off?
Maybe it's just Brady being banged up, but the problem is that historically, the QB decline once it starts it unravels very quickly. Peyton Manning got away with it, Favre got away with it for a bit (and then got hurt again/benched in Minny), I don't know if BB is going to be OK giving Brady 25 million the last year before the lockout. So next year might be it.
I do agree that the opportunity to draft a QB in the first round is not likely to be there.
That’s an interesting question. It’s tough because he definitely has issues against pressure but he’s a first year starter. Also, he isn’t a truly mobile QB. A lot of the time his first read is open. That’s the negative. The positives are I like his touch and accuracy and he has a mean deep ball. From what I have seen of him I think he warrants a first round grade. Kind of reminds me a little bit of Mahomes situation going into the draft. He needs a year on the bench and to be developed. He’s also a strong kid. I’d absolutely burn a first on him. No question about it. He’s probably the only guy though this year I’d say that for (looks like Herbert is going back to school - if that’s changed since last Thursday my apologies).
I'm with you. If Haskins comes out (and I think there is a good chance he does, with Urban Meyer retiring), I think he's easily the best QB prospect in the class, and worth a first round pick.
That said, don't really think the Pats are in a place yet where they need to worry about a QB. Brady is just fine. He's more than fine. He's easily a top 10 QB in the NFL, if not top 5. If he had the weapons the guys in the top 5 have, nobody would even be discussing drafting a QB.
I thought today it was pretty clear from the opening whistle that Buffalo was not going to let Tom Brady beat them. The Patriots didn't all of a sudden figure out how to run block and turn it into almost 300 yards. The Bills were basically daring them to run, and the Patriots took advantage. Do Brady's stats look bad? Sure. But at least one pick wasn't his fault, the other probably wasn't his fault either and definitely should have been defensive holding, and Edelman dropped the first pass of the game that was going to go for a long gain if he caught it. 3 plays and the stats look a whole lot different. Losing Gordon is going to hurt this team for a little while, and Brady needs to find some confidence in the receiving corps, especially outside the numbers. A first round bye will certainly give him enough time to get healthy and work out the kinks with the receiving corps.
Maybe the future Brady stuff should be moved to the Pats of the Future thread?
But let's just take a QB in the 6th round, who needs a 1st round pick for a QB. Is Etling not going to be an option for the future ? I feel they will likely make another of their mid round picks on a QB but not go high.
Brady was far from stellar this game. But the second pick was 100% on Gronk and the first was at least a good chance on Burkhead. Jules had a bad drop on the first drive, etc. It is tough to separate the 'Brady Decline' (TM) from the WR / TE losing some of their skills. Gronk is essentially a blocking TE now. Hogan hasn't replaced Dola as hoped.
Just wait til Brady wins 2 more SB on the back of the RBs ala Elway in Denver (sans the salary cap cheating).
Business is business and I have no problem with him finishing his career with a different logo on his helmet.
Brady has a torn meniscus and I won't believe anything else until it's proven otherwise in the offseason
Well, that id be fine with. But I think we are on same page.
And it may have been on that stupid pass reception. We’re so fucking clever at times.
Ho him 10 straight division titles. We are so fucking entitled at times.