2018 Tom M-F&^%$ing Brady: Still Proving It
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I don't think falling off a cliff happens in-season after a run of very goodness to greatness is more the point (aside from injury situations). I agree with the concept of a cliff (for some players; others age gradually). I just think it tends to happen between seasons.
Wait...this isn't about me?
I know you were responding to PP, it was just part of a thread...eh, doesn't much matter, puffin eggs or ptarmigan eggs.
Fair enough.
I've kindof thought that he might get injured mid-season. Not catastrophically, but enough to really set him back (should he play? should he sit?) and that the age would catch up to him that way (Tries to play through it, can't, turns into a long term aggravation. Or...doesn't play through it, tries to rehab, can't fully come back.)
That's how it goes with a lot of players. Brady is a unique situation for many reasons, one of the primary ones being how he has been able to maintain his health.
Right. I think his end won't be entirely unusual, apart from how long it took to arrive. I don't think he's going to go all Rick Ankiel on us.
The crazy thing is, this has kind of happened the last few years. He hurt his ankle in October 2014, then hurt his ankle again in the final regular season game a year later. In 2016 he hurt his quad / knee. Last year it was his left shoulder and his Achilles. I don't know how serious any of these were, but I kept expecting them to nag him and bother him all year and he always seems to be able to play through it and recover fully in a few weeks. Meanwhile I am in pain from shoveling this morning. Maybe I'll stop eating tomatoes just to see what happens.
I just took a walk 4 blocks for an espresso, and my back hurts.
Then again, I'm almost 47, so let's see how well Tom does getting espressos in 6 years!
They just got off a six game winning streak. Where was all the talk of the TB12 suck during that run? They've had three losses this year. Not being the number one seed in the playoffs is not the kiss of death. That said...
What's really different about this team, and I think there is an effect on the rest of the game plan, is just how bad this defense is. They had a bright spot in the Green Bay game, but that seems to be the outlier.
There were some similarities between the Titans game and the Lions game. When you get down that much, that fast, against teams that have any sort of defense, its a tough hill to climb for the offense when you have to rely even less on the running game because you're down two touchdowns. Looking at something like the KC game, NE is lucky that KC could answer Brady as well as NE could answer Mahomes. This isn't a model that seems sustainable in the playoffs.
What's really different about this team, and I think there is an effect on the rest of the game plan, is just how bad this defense is. They had a bright spot in the Green Bay game, but that seems to be the outlier.
There were some similarities between the Titans game and the Lions game. When you get down that much, that fast, against teams that have any sort of defense, its a tough hill to climb for the offense when you have to rely even less on the running game because you're down two touchdowns. Looking at something like the KC game, NE is lucky that KC could answer Brady as well as NE could answer Mahomes. This isn't a model that seems sustainable in the playoffs.
They've occasionally had a stinker even in SB years, but it seems they've had more than usual this year. But I should know by now not to ever give up or assume anything with this team until it's actually over for the year.
Mid season was when Peyton Manning fell off the cliff in 2014. He was playing at or near a peak level the year before and for the early part of 2014, before injury (to his leg?) set in and almost overnight he became the shell of a player he was the following year, after which he retired. His playoff loss to the Colts that season was an absolute disaster.
Certainly not predictive of anything for Brady but also a recent example to the contrary.
As you note - injury related. Which I acknowledged as a possibility. That’s not the same though as pure skill erosion.
Wasn’t there a nerve issue with Manning that took more than a few mph off his fastball? It’s all blending together for me in the rear view mirror, but I recall serious questions ether he would play again and maybe even a trip to Germany.
For the first time in the Brady era, I’m tempted to watch a non-Pats Monday night game. It ought to be a spectacle.
I’d love to, I’m just not sure I can deal with the announcers and the production. It was painful when I watched the Pats a couple weeks ago.
There is probably some way of synching with radio broadcast — Kevin Harlan and Kurt Warner. I’m too lazy, so it’s the mute button.
True, but yeah I’m too lazy as well and I’m also pretty sure if I exposed myself to those graphics again I’d have an epileptic seizure.
Guess I haven’t watched enough MNF game minutes to realize how bad the broadcast team is. Somehow got through the Pats - Bills game though.
Yes, damn whoever let JJ Watt in, as whoever let Lawrence Taylor in, as whoever let Bernard Pollard in.
It wasn’t a good game against the Texans defense. Alex Smith played passably this season, but barely. Not clear to me Colt McCoy will represent any falloff. He could be more effective.
Yeah but in his prime that would have been a TD!
I'm kidding, obviously.
(just to be clear: I never said it was a cliff, and my "CLIFF!!" post was a joke)
cbssportsline guy picks Minnesota this week because "Tom Brady has looked mortal lately". Fair enough. "Mortal".
He's played 11 games this season. In 6 of them he has a passer rating over 102. In just 3 of them does he have a rating of less than 94. He's thrown for fewer than 230 yards just once. The Patriots as a team have scored fewer than 25 points just 3 times.
I mean, yeah, "mortal". Mortal is still pretty solid.
He's played 11 games this season. In 6 of them he has a passer rating over 102. In just 3 of them does he have a rating of less than 94. He's thrown for fewer than 230 yards just once. The Patriots as a team have scored fewer than 25 points just 3 times.
I mean, yeah, "mortal". Mortal is still pretty solid.
Well he has only been good in 7 of the last 8 games, so "Cliff!". The national wish casting and local paranoia about Brady is amazing to behold.
Someday they will all be right.
In addition to 1K today...
Only In Boston @OnlyInBOS 18m18 minutes ago
Tom Brady now holds a perfect record against five teams. Tom Brady now has 205 regular season wins. Tom Brady now has 75 regular season wins at home since 2007, more than five teams have earned, both home and away, during that span.
Only In Boston @OnlyInBOS 18m18 minutes ago
Tom Brady now holds a perfect record against five teams. Tom Brady now has 205 regular season wins. Tom Brady now has 75 regular season wins at home since 2007, more than five teams have earned, both home and away, during that span.
Not sure where else to put this, but on the video of James White mic'd up for the Vikings game, you can hear Brady call for a check down to White... while giving him a play action fake. It's at about 1:20 of the video here:
I have no idea if this is a thing that regularly happens and I've just never heard it before, or if it's a Brady thing. But it's pretty crazy to be making that call during a play.
I have no idea if this is a thing that regularly happens and I've just never heard it before, or if it's a Brady thing. But it's pretty crazy to be making that call during a play.
Brady had a brain fart at the end of the first half, but otherwise was tremendous today. After going through one of the worst stretches of his career, he's bounced back in a big way the past three games:
71-106 (67.0%), 952 yds, 9.0 ypa, 6 td, 1 int, 110.3 rating
71-106 (67.0%), 952 yds, 9.0 ypa, 6 td, 1 int, 110.3 rating
Gisele can’t get him to retire
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/will-tom-brady-ever-retire-gisele-admits-shes-failed-swaying-him
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/will-tom-brady-ever-retire-gisele-admits-shes-failed-swaying-him
As there is quite a bit of game threading about Brady and his "decline" in the Game Goat thread, I'd thought it may be instructive to illustrate how the GOAT is doing this season.
At 14 games into the 2018 season, Brady is on pace for 586 attempts (5 more than last season, when he led the league), 386 completions (1 more than last season), and 4,457 yards (a whopping 120 yards less than last season).
His net yards per attempt of 7.23 is actually higher than last season and would be the 5th best season of his career. Looking at other stats:
Adjusted net yards per attempt: 7.37, middle of the pack career wise.
Rating: 97.6, right at his career average
QBR: 68.6 represents his 4th worst year, but that stat did not exist for his first 6 seasons. FWIW, it was 68.0 in 2015 when the Pats lost to Denver in the AFCCG.
His 9 interceptions loom large especially after this past game, which was his first red zone pick in 2 years. His INT percent of 1.8 is right at his career average, although it's the highest since the 2013 season. A couple of good (or bad) games in Weeks 16 or 17 could have an impact on this number.
That's all well and good, but how does he compare to other QB's in the league this year, especially with a number of even older QB's having career seasons in Rivers and Brees. The below deliberately ignores QB's that haven't played at least 12 of the 14 games.
Total yards: 5th, behind Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Ryan, and Goff.
Completions: 6th (behind Ben, Cousins, Ryan, Luck, and Mahomes)
Attempts: 7th (add Aaron Rodgers)
Completion Percentage: 16th, tied w/ Eli (ignoring Fitzpatrick and his 7 starts)
Net yards/attempt: 5th (ignoring Mullens and Fitzpatrick). Behind Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Goff
Adj net yards/attempt: 6th Behind Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Goff, and Ryan
Rating: 11th
QBR: 8th
Sack Percentage: 4th
Realistically, the QB's that are truly "better" than Brady this season have been:
Mahomes
Goff
Brees
QB's who arguably having better season than Brady:
Matt Ryan (quietely having another excellent season)
Rivers (maybe, or perhaps equal to Brady, as he's thrown 70 fewer passes this season)
Potentially equal to Brady:
Andrew Luck
Bottom line is that Brady is still right on the boundary of being a Top 5 QB this season, and clearly a Top 10. I'm sure there is some obscure "advanced" stat that questions this fact, but I still say the burden of proof is on those that dispute the above rankings.
At 14 games into the 2018 season, Brady is on pace for 586 attempts (5 more than last season, when he led the league), 386 completions (1 more than last season), and 4,457 yards (a whopping 120 yards less than last season).
His net yards per attempt of 7.23 is actually higher than last season and would be the 5th best season of his career. Looking at other stats:
Adjusted net yards per attempt: 7.37, middle of the pack career wise.
Rating: 97.6, right at his career average
QBR: 68.6 represents his 4th worst year, but that stat did not exist for his first 6 seasons. FWIW, it was 68.0 in 2015 when the Pats lost to Denver in the AFCCG.
His 9 interceptions loom large especially after this past game, which was his first red zone pick in 2 years. His INT percent of 1.8 is right at his career average, although it's the highest since the 2013 season. A couple of good (or bad) games in Weeks 16 or 17 could have an impact on this number.
That's all well and good, but how does he compare to other QB's in the league this year, especially with a number of even older QB's having career seasons in Rivers and Brees. The below deliberately ignores QB's that haven't played at least 12 of the 14 games.
Total yards: 5th, behind Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Ryan, and Goff.
Completions: 6th (behind Ben, Cousins, Ryan, Luck, and Mahomes)
Attempts: 7th (add Aaron Rodgers)
Completion Percentage: 16th, tied w/ Eli (ignoring Fitzpatrick and his 7 starts)
Net yards/attempt: 5th (ignoring Mullens and Fitzpatrick). Behind Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Goff
Adj net yards/attempt: 6th Behind Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Goff, and Ryan
Rating: 11th
QBR: 8th
Sack Percentage: 4th
Realistically, the QB's that are truly "better" than Brady this season have been:
Mahomes
Goff
Brees
QB's who arguably having better season than Brady:
Matt Ryan (quietely having another excellent season)
Rivers (maybe, or perhaps equal to Brady, as he's thrown 70 fewer passes this season)
Potentially equal to Brady:
Andrew Luck
Bottom line is that Brady is still right on the boundary of being a Top 5 QB this season, and clearly a Top 10. I'm sure there is some obscure "advanced" stat that questions this fact, but I still say the burden of proof is on those that dispute the above rankings.
I love this post. Thank you for it.
I'd also to add a couple of things. Tom Brady does what he does playing in the worst division in football when it comes to playing conditions. Yeah, they haven't had any really "bad" weather games this year, but playing in Foxboro, Buffalo and New York for 10 games a year is something that needs to be taken into account. Look at the other guys that are "ahead or equal" to him:
Goff: Southern California
Brees: Dome (which has been discussed ad nauseum)
Luck: Dome
Ryan: Dome
Rivers: Southern California
The only QB playing outside in unpredictable weather for at least half their games is Mahomes, and well, if you gave 2018 Tom Brady the likes of Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Chris Conley, etc., you'd have 2007 Tom Brady. I'm positive of that.
Speaking of weapons, look at the skill position guys that those teams have compared to the Pats. Everyone forgets Edelman missed the first four games of the year, Gronk missed what, 4 games? Sony Michel missed 4 games? Gordon took at least 3-4 games to get up to speed. Brady basically got his entire assortment of "weapons" back like 4 weeks ago, and since that time, his numbers are fantastic.
Unfortunately, statistics only tell part of the story in football, and not nearly enough of it, and even still, the numbers still say Brady is just fine. Not perfect, but pretty damn close, especially when you account for the drop off he's dealing with from his most important teammates. .
His last four games, per game averages:
67.6%, 308 yards, 8.7 y/a, 1.8 td, 0.5 int, 105.1 rating
What we haven't seen from Brady this year is the MONSTER game that he always seems to have one or two of a season. A game that really boosts his overall stats. A 400 yd, 4 td, 0 int kind of game.
67.6%, 308 yards, 8.7 y/a, 1.8 td, 0.5 int, 105.1 rating
What we haven't seen from Brady this year is the MONSTER game that he always seems to have one or two of a season. A game that really boosts his overall stats. A 400 yd, 4 td, 0 int kind of game.
Just for what it's worth - and I'm a guy that loves Drew Brees - here are Brady and Brees' career numbers IN DOMES. Keep in mind that for Brees, the vast majority of his dome games are also HOME games, while for Brady, obviously, they're all ROAD games. Yes that makes a huge huge difference.
In Domes
Brady:
- Career: 67.6%, 8.73 y/a, 9.10 ay/a, 30:10 td:int, 109.0, .786 win %
- Avg game: 19.9 - 29.4, 67.6%, 256.4 yds, 2.1 td, 0.7 int, 109.0 rating
Brees:
- Career: 69.6%, 8.08 y/a, 8.24 ay/a, 295:113 td:int, 104.2 rating, .622 win %
- Avg game: 26.7-38.3, 69.6%, 309.6 yds, 2.3 td, 0.9 int, 104.2 rating
So despite being on the road for all his dome games, while Brees is at home for the vast majority of them, Brady's dome numbers are better than Brees', and he wins more in domes than Brees does.
In Domes
Brady:
- Career: 67.6%, 8.73 y/a, 9.10 ay/a, 30:10 td:int, 109.0, .786 win %
- Avg game: 19.9 - 29.4, 67.6%, 256.4 yds, 2.1 td, 0.7 int, 109.0 rating
Brees:
- Career: 69.6%, 8.08 y/a, 8.24 ay/a, 295:113 td:int, 104.2 rating, .622 win %
- Avg game: 26.7-38.3, 69.6%, 309.6 yds, 2.3 td, 0.9 int, 104.2 rating
So despite being on the road for all his dome games, while Brees is at home for the vast majority of them, Brady's dome numbers are better than Brees', and he wins more in domes than Brees does.
Just cruising through some stats and noticing that Brady is on the lower end (20th) of QB ratings in the second half. 90.5 in second half vs. 103.3 in the first half (9th).
I don't think he is anywhere near 100% in his lower body. Maybe he is tiring? Or, whatever is bothering him gets worse as the game goes on?
I don't think he is anywhere near 100% in his lower body. Maybe he is tiring? Or, whatever is bothering him gets worse as the game goes on?
Brady made the Pro Bowl, his 14th, which ties him with four others for most ever (Manning is one). He probably didn’t deserve it (Mahomes, Rivers, Luck), but it’s not a massive snub or anything. Brady’s probably been the fourth best of the group.
It's really a crapshoot behind Mahomes and Rivers. Luck has only 7.1 Y/A, which is awfully low for a Pro Bowl pick, as well as 13 INT (only Roethlisberger and a couple rookies have more). DeShaun Watson has good rate stats but doesn't throw the ball very much, and he's got DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. Brady is third in the AFC in ANY/A with an aging/hobbled Gronk and Edelman so he's as good a choice as any.
Speculation Brady is playing with injured MCL.
Dont shoot the messenger.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2018/12/19/tom-brady-playing-hurt-injury-mcl-new-england-patriots-nfl/amp/
Dont shoot the messenger.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2018/12/19/tom-brady-playing-hurt-injury-mcl-new-england-patriots-nfl/amp/
I mean it makes sense. Still playing at a high level. As has been discussed it is more likely injury than pure decline that ends his run - as it is for basically all QBs who play into their 40s
Well, maybe. I can certainly see how his play the last 4 weeks is a cause for concern:
96/142, 67.6%, 1231 yards 7/2 TD/INT, 105.1 rating which would be a pace for the second most yards he's ever thrown for and a QB rating he's bested only 5 times.
Kinda joking. If he is hurt, imagine what those numbers would be if he wasn't.
96/142, 67.6%, 1231 yards 7/2 TD/INT, 105.1 rating which would be a pace for the second most yards he's ever thrown for and a QB rating he's bested only 5 times.
Kinda joking. If he is hurt, imagine what those numbers would be if he wasn't.
Brady has the 3rd-highest off-target throw pct in the NFL this season (20% of his attempts are off target). Only 2 QBs missing more throws than Brady are Josh Allen (23%) and Sam Darnold (21%).
Throwaways are not counted. Last year he was at 17.7%, 18.2 in 2016, 19.5 in 2015, 18.9 in 2014, 21.5 in 2013. Since 2006 his avg is 18.8%.
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